MLB: What to watch on September 21, 2025

• 21 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Top gNERD on the slate (13.52) rides a two-ace vibe: Kyle Bradish’s post–Tommy John whiffs meet Cam Schlittler’s 98-mph rookie voltage. Layer in a Yankees lineup that barrels like a cooperage and an Orioles club searching for stability, and this tilts toward must-watch.

Bradish’s pNERD (7.95) is backed by real-world nastiness: 10 strikeouts in his return with mid‑97s heat, and he’s stacked 15 Ks over his past 12 innings without allowing a homer, the kind of swing-and-miss profile that fits his xFIP‑driven component here. Schlittler’s pNERD (7.92) comes from youth and gas; he’s shown bat-missing chops (13 whiffs on 95 pitches vs. DET) but the command can wobble (five walks, didn’t finish five in his last start), which adds either chaos or charm depending on your disposition. The rookie’s road split helps—opponents are hitting .192 away from the Bronx—and New York has won five of his last six starts. On the team side, the Yankees’ strong tNERD (8.14) is powered by elite barrels, while Baltimore’s lower tNERD (3.04) reflects shaky defense/bullpen even as Bradish offers a bright spot for a roster that’s cycled through a record-tying 70 players.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 4:10p

Summary

High-stakes AL West theater with a premium arm on the marquee: Logan Gilbert (elite pNERD 10.72) lines up against depth starter Jason Alexander, as Seattle defends a slim lead and Houston fights to stay in the bracket. Cal Raleigh just reset the Mariners’ single-season homer record, and Yordan Álvarez is sidelined with a significant ankle sprain, so the vibes (and thump) tilt Seattle.

With a gNERD of 12.82 (upper tier among today’s games), the watchability here is driven by the contrast on the mound: Gilbert’s run-prevention indicators are sparkling (xFIP- 66 in our model) and he typically works deliberately, while Alexander brings a lower whiff profile but a quicker tempo. The matchup is official as probable: Gilbert vs. Alexander. Seattle’s offense brings real punch (strong batting runs and barrels in the tNERD mix), and Raleigh’s power binge only sharpens that edge; meanwhile, Houston’s best features are glove and bullpen, which could keep this close if they reach the middle innings on script. For added intrigue, Jose Altuve has handled Gilbert reasonably well in his career, a pocket of resistance the Astros will need. And after Seattle’s series-securing win, the standings pressure is very real, heightening every plate appearance.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Jason Alexander, Houston Astros

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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

A rookie mystery box meets the Rays’ legs and leaks: Connelly Early’s whiffs collide with Tampa Bay’s speed and sketchy glove work. Boston has owned the matchup lately (eight straight, 10–2 this season), so the real question is whether Tampa can manufacture enough chaos to flip it. gNERD 12.78 sits in the top quartile of historic games and near the top of today’s slate, driven more by team traits than the mound matchup: Boston pairs plus baserunning, stout defense, and a top bullpen, while Tampa brings elite baserunning but light barrels and error‑prone gloves. Early is the intrigue engine — 11 Ks in five scoreless in his debut, with a minors résumé that included a 40% strikeout rate and 1.73 FIP in a Double‑A sample — so the “stuff” is real even if the big‑league sample isn’t. On the other side, reports point to Ryan Pepiot, not Joe Boyle; Pepiot recently spun five no‑hit innings before a rough, post‑layoff outing — volatility that keeps remotes unmuted. Junior Caminero’s midweek back scare and two‑error night add a subplot: can Tampa’s kids hold the ball when it matters?

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays

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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

The Mets’ elite tNERD and Manaea’s top-tier pNERD make this a high‑leverage watch: New York is tinkering with a Manaea‑then‑Holmes piggyback while clinging to a razor‑thin wild‑card edge. Washington’s draw is chaos and kids—see Daylen Lile’s 11th‑inning inside‑the‑park stunner last game—against a homer‑prone Jake Irvin.

With a gNERD of 12.55, this sits near the top of today’s slate and in the historical upper quartile. It’s driven mostly by a stark NERD split: Mets tNERD 11.68 (barrels, baserunning, and a strong pen) versus Nats tNERD 0.95 (thin bats and defense). The pitching contrast is just as watchable: Manaea’s pNERD 9.90 is backed by a sharp xFIP‑ (79), excellent strike rate, and fast pace; Irvin’s pNERD 2.57 reflects a rough xFIP‑ (117) and limited whiffs, a tough profile against a power‑forward Mets lineup. New York’s stakes add juice—they’ve got only a one‑game cushion for the final NL wild card—while Sunday’s plan has Manaea starting with Clay Holmes ready to follow, a postseason‑style look as Manaea returns from the paternity list. Meanwhile, Irvin was tagged again in Atlanta and has been susceptible to the long ball, which plays into Citi Field’s current hosts. If you’re triaging screens, this one deserves the sound on.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

A rookie mystery box meets a rebuilt buzzsaw: the Dodgers roll out strikeout-heavy Emmet Sheehan while the Giants hand Trevor McDonald his first big-league start, a volatility cocktail that pairs nicely with L.A.’s thump. It’s a top-shelf watch on today’s slate because a real lineup meets a real unknown, and the outcomes could range from showcase to scramble.

The gNERD sits 12.09—comfortably above today’s average—and it’s driven by a lopsided contrast: Dodgers bats grade strong on contact quality while the Giants trail on barrels and baserunning, making L.A. the entertainment engine here. Sheehan’s pNERD (8.11) matches the eye test: mid‑90s heat, a bat-missing profile, and a recent 10‑K, 7‑scoreless masterpiece that signaled he’s more than a rehab story, with K% north of 27% this year. McDonald, the Giants’ No. 18 prospect, is making his first MLB start (third appearance), and San Francisco may need a piggyback if command wobbles. Add in the Dodgers’ power (Shohei Ohtani pacing the NL in homers) and divisional and wild-card stakes, and there’s juice even if the matchup tilts blue.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Miami Marlins @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Power vs. polish: Eury Pérez’s octane meets Merrill Kelly’s metronome, with Miami’s late‑season friskiness poking at Texas’s wobbling playoff bid. If you want a stuff show wrapped in stakes, this gNERD 11.69 tilt qualifies.

Miami has stacked wins and just squeezed two straight in Arlington, a run that’s real as a storyline even if it predicts nothing about the next nine innings, while the Rangers’ hopes have thinned after another one‑run loss. Pérez draws his first career look at Texas after five scoreless in his last outing; the pNERD loves his 97–99 mph fastball, youth, and bat-missing profile more than his merely average xFIP- and deliberate tempo. Kelly, acquired to steady a shaky rotation, has been exactly that and was bumped up to take this start; the pNERD notes solid underlying run prevention (xFIP- ~92) and strike throwing without radar‑gun theatrics. On the team side, tNERD leans Texas for defense and baserunning flair, while Miami brings youth and volatility with a bullpen that can fray. With a gNERD comfortably above the day’s average, this rates as a “check in early and keep the remote nearby” kind of watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Miami Marlins

Texas Rangers

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

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Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

A stealthy high-gNERD pick with actual stakes for your eyeballs: Mike Burrows’ post–Tommy John ascent meets an A’s lineup that hits better than the Pirates’ bats defend themselves. With a gNERD of 11.68, this sits near the top of today’s slate.

pNERD tilts this toward Pittsburgh early: Burrows (7.90) brings mid‑95 heat, a quick pace, and a better run estimator (xFIP‑ 92) than Spence, plus the Pirates are still managing his workload with occasional piggyback help, which can keep the stuff crisp. Oakland’s Mitch Spence (pNERD 4.34; xFIP‑ 101) was just recalled and quietly spun 3.2 scoreless in his most recent outing, but his profile is more contact‑tolerant. If you need a storyline beyond models: the Pirates have leaned on run prevention all year (MLB‑best 18th shutout yesterday) while their offense drags, and they’re already out of the race. The A’s bring the better tNERD (7.27 vs. 3.85), a big “Luck” signal suggesting they’ve underperformed, and rookie fireworks—Nick Kurtz sits one homer shy of passing Jose Canseco for second on the franchise’s rookie list. Call it watchable for the Burrows show, Oakland’s livelier bats, and the chance that variance finally pays the A’s tab.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Athletics

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Spence, Athletics

Mike Burrows, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

Division-clinch watch meets a potential ace outing: Milwaukee can lock up the NL Central with a win, and multiple outlets list Freddy Peralta opposite Matthew Liberatore, which nudges this from “strong” to “must peek.” It’s Brewers baserunning-and-bullpen juice against the Cardinals’ vacuum-cleaner defense—crisp baseball over chaos. The gNERD sits at 11.68, above today’s average, largely on Milwaukee’s top-tier tNERD (9.59) built by plus baserunning and a deep bullpen, while St. Louis brings competent gloves and relief work despite a thinner offense. If it is Peralta, he’s fresh off 10 strikeouts with his swing-and-miss stuff playing up; if it’s a pivot to someone else, the watchability leans back toward the fielding-and-baserunning battle the scores already expect. Liberatore’s peripherals trend closer to average (xFIP in the low-4s) with improved strike-throwing, so contact quality and Busch’s big gaps matter. One caveat: William Contreras exited with a hand issue, which could sap Milwaukee’s thump—but also raise the steal-and-run quotient. Brewers can clinch; Cards can complicate.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

Top-tier watchability here: a strong gNERD (11.27) meets a clean contrast—Ranger Suárez’s run prevention chops versus Eduardo Rodriguez’s shakier peripherals and a bullpen Arizona fans greet with deep breaths. Philadelphia’s lineup just got a lift with Alec Bohm back, while Arizona’s on the wild‑card fringe, so the late innings should feel consequential.

Suárez grades well by the model (pNERD 5.73) on the strength of a better xFIP- than average (88; lower is better) and tidy strike-throwing, and he’s also been piling up Ks lately, which raises the ceiling on watchability. Rodriguez’s pNERD (3.21) flags below‑average estimators (xFIP- 107) and fewer whiffs; if he’s not missing barrels early, Philly’s top‑10 tNERD bats can make this snowball.

Team-wise, the Phillies’ high tNERD (8.49) reflects real entertainment value—power, baserunning, and enough defense—while Arizona’s profile mixes speed/defense with that notorious bullpen drag, which aligns with all those lost leads you’ve read about.

Context push: Philly has clinched the East and is still jousting for NL seeding, whereas Arizona’s margin is slim, a nice pressure cooker for late-game tactics. Note that Trea Turner is banged up, but Bohm’s return helps balance the infield bats. If you like contrast, leverage plays, and a lefty who works fast, this one earns its slot.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

A high-urgency Reds team trying to claw into October runs headlong into the Cubs’ barrel-happy, glove-forward act, with Andrew Abbott asked to steady things and Jameson Taillon trying to keep it brisk. With a gNERD of 11.23—above today’s slate average—this rates as a worthwhile click for stakes plus stylistic contrast.

The Cubs’ side of the watchability ledger is simple: top-tier tNERD driven by barrels, plus baserunning and defense that actually move a game along; the pNERDs are merely middling, so the bats and leather carry the appeal. Cincinnati’s tNERD lags, but the storyline is strong: they’ve won four straight and sit a game behind the Mets in the wild-card chase, so every pitch matters. Abbott’s underlying run prevention (around a 3.6 FIP this year) supports the assignment, and he’s handled Chicago well while looking to bounce back from 4.2 innings, 3 ER his last time out. Taillon doesn’t miss many bats but works quickly; since returning from the IL he spun six scoreless versus Pittsburgh, the right kind of “boring” that keeps your remote on the table. The Cubs already clinched on Sept. 17, which shifts the urgency edge to Cincinnati—another nudge toward watchability despite only average pNERDs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

Pennant-race nerves meet a comeback fastball: Casey Mize tries to halt Detroit’s skid while Spencer Strider’s resurgent whiff game threatens to turn this into a strikeout matinee. With Cleveland within a game and Atlanta’s kids popping up with big swings, the drama here is less vibes than stakes.
gNERD 10.65 lands mid-pack relative to today’s slate but above the historical median, and the why is clear: two average-to-above pNERDs with contrasting styles, plus a high-stakes context. Mize’s profile (solid strike rate, improved splitter, quick pace) has played to wins, and he’s eyeing No. 15, which would be Detroit’s first RHP to that mark since Verlander in 2016. Strider, back from internal-brace surgery, has seen velocity tick back and recent run prevention improve; over his last two starts he’s allowed three runs in 13 innings with 14 K, the kind of trend a gNERD notices.
Team-wise, Detroit’s watchability leans young bats and barrel rate, even as five straight losses have shaved their division cushion to one; Torkelson’s power remains a swing variable. Atlanta’s tNERD lags, but the lineup’s rookies have been loud, and a shaky Tigers bullpen can tilt a tight game late.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Atlanta Braves

Detroit Tigers

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

A playoff-chasing Cleveland run-prevention machine meets a Twins starter fresh off his best swing-and-miss night; if you like tidy, tense baseball, this one’s worth your eyeballs. The Guardians have rattled off 10 straight and sliced the AL Central gap to a single game after a doubleheader shutout sweep in Minneapolis, raising the stakes nicely.

With a gNERD of 10.64, this sits slightly above the historical median and around the middle of today’s slate, but the ingredients are appealing: Cleveland’s superior tNERD (7.41) is built on an elite bullpen (+60 runs) and plus defense (+24), while the Twins’ more modest tNERD (4.82) still hides a sturdy pen. Joey Cantillo’s better-than-average xFIP- (90) and brisk tempo (17.7s) underpin a pNERD edge over Simeon Woods Richardson, and he’s recently spun 8+ scoreless vs. KC and punched out seven at Fenway.

Woods Richardson’s raw pNERD lags (xFIP- 117), but he just struck out 11 Yankees over six scoreless, so the whiffs are real even if the peripherals aren’t fully sold.

Cleveland’s bats rate poorly by run value and barrels, which, paired with two competent bullpens and Minnesota’s recent zeroes, points to a lower-scoring watch where sequencing, defense, and late relief decide it—and that can be plenty fun.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Rookie vs. metronome makes for sneaky-watchable baseball: Toronto hands the ball to Trey Yesavage, fresh off a franchise-debut record 9 strikeouts, to stop a skid, while Michael Wacha tests whether savvy can outfox swing-and-miss. The gNERD sits near the historical median, but the plot points are timely enough to keep a thumb off the remote.

Yesavage’s second look comes after five punchout-filled innings that doubled as a club debut record, the kind of pNERD mystery box (0.00) that can spike a game’s fun factor on contact. Toronto needs it, having produced just three runs across four games with one total at-bat with RISP in this set, and now juggling the rotation after Chris Bassitt hit the IL. Wacha’s pNERD is modest (3.40) with an xFIP- of 109, and he’s coming off a concussion-return clunker (7 R, 2 2/3 IP), though he previously cruised eight innings of one-run ball vs. these Jays. Kansas City still has a pulse, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino powering recent wins and Pasquantino riding a heater. With Toronto’s better tNERD (7.17 to 4.46) and a rookie with whiffs to spare, this is a mid-tier gNERD (10.01) game lifted by meaningful stakes and the allure of discovery.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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San Diego Padres @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Padres–White Sox is a “bring your bullpen” watch: San Diego’s playoff push meets Chicago’s rebuild, with Michael King and Sean Burke more supporting actors than headliners. It’s mid-tier by gNERD (8.11), pulled down by a low pNERD duo, but Padres urgency and a soft White Sox lineup keep it watchable.

King’s pNERD (3.85) reflects average run prevention (xFIP- 97) and modest bat-missing, and he’s still ramping after a September IL return; he even ate some lumps at Citi Field last week. Burke’s pNERD (2.30) tracks with a shaky run estimators profile (xFIP- 117) and traffic (1.47 WHIP), the kind of mix that can force early bullpen cameos. If that happens, advantage Padres: their relief corps just locked down the previous game while Adrian Morejon nabbed the win.

Macro-wise, San Diego’s tNERD (7.30) tops Chicago’s (2.77) and the standings explain why: Padres are 84-71 and chasing October; the Sox are 58-97 and short-handed (Luis Robert Jr. out), while Xander Bogaerts is also sidelined. Against a Chicago offense that ranks near the bottom by AVG/SLG, even King’s contact-leaning approach can play. Net: below today’s average gNERD, but the playoff stakes, a bullpen edge, and a favorable matchup nudge it onto the screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Chicago White Sox

Michael King, San Diego Padres

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Angels @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

This is the lowest gNERD on the board today, but it still comes with two decent hooks: Mike Trout just joined the 400-homer club, and Kyle Freeland’s added sweeper has given him a modest whiff bump. If you’re hunting for chaos, Coors plus two thin bullpens is a reasonable bet even when the watchability math shrugs.

The model dings this matchup because both tNERDs are underwater (Rockies deeply so), with Colorado’s bats, defense, baserunning, and bullpen all grading poorly; that last item is watchable in its own way when late innings get rubbery. The Angels at least barrel the ball (excellent barrel-rate component), while their fielding and relief work drag. On the mound, rookie Caden Dana is an unknown in NERD terms (pNERD 0), but he’s a 21-year-old top prospect who’s bounced between Triple-A and the bigs this year—novelty points if you like scouting in real time.

Freeland’s overall run prevention hasn’t wowed, but the sweeper has been a real addition, and his 2025 FIP sits closer to “serviceable” than the surface stats suggest. If Trout’s milestone hangover includes another loud swing and Dana finds early strikes, this clears its low bar; otherwise you’re watching to see which bullpen blinks first.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Colorado Rockies

Caden Dana, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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