MLB: What to watch on September 22, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.8 | 6:40p | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.7 | San Diego Padres | 7.5 | Freddy Peralta | 5.1 | Nick Pivetta | 5.4 |
| 9.6 | 4:15p | Washington Nationals | 0.9 | Atlanta Braves | 2.6 | MacKenzie Gore | 6.8 | Chris Sale | 8.8 |
| 7.3 | 6:45p | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.6 | San Francisco Giants | 3.6 | Michael McGreevy | 3.8 | Justin Verlander | 2.7 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p
Summary
Top gNERD on the slate, and it earns it: a playoff-tinged duel where Milwaukee’s machine-like baserunning/bullpen meets San Diego’s late‑inning buzzsaw. Brewers already clinched the NL Central while the Padres’ magic number is skinny, so leverage should arrive early and stick around all night.
At 13.82, this game sits first among today’s matchups and flirts with the historical upper tier, driven by elite tNERDs: Milwaukee’s speed/defense/relief combo (tNERD 9.71) against a Padres crew buoyed by a high‑end bullpen (tNERD 7.45). Robert Suarez just hit 40 saves, and Petco’s run‑prevention vibe only tilts things further toward drama by the ‘pens. Freddy Peralta’s pNERD is merely above average, but his whiffs (10 K last time out) play, even if his 2025 peripherals (FIP/xFIP) lag his shiny run prevention—something FanGraphs tied partly to Milwaukee’s defense, which fits today’s tNERD profile. On the other side, Nick Pivetta brings improved K/BB rates and a history of homer risk that Petco tends to soften; he’s coming off a mortal turn vs. the Mets.
Roster notes nudge the watchability needle: William Contreras has been listed as probable after a hand scare, while Xander Bogaerts remains out with a foot fracture. gNERD says prioritize this; your eyes will likely agree.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 57.8 | 6.7% | 14.6 | 18.2 | 54.8 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -28.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.86 | -1.53 | 2.06 | 0.81 | 1.10 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.27 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.86 | -1.53 | 2.06 | 0.81 | 1.10 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 9.71 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 11.5 | 7.4% | 0.2 | -4.3 | 68.6 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 13.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.19 | -0.95 | -0.04 | -0.17 | 1.75 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.58 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.19 | -0.95 | -0.04 | -0.17 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 7.45 |
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 94 | 12.7% | 61.3% | 94.9 mph | 29 | 18.4s | -31 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.44 | 0.98 | -1.14 | 0.46 | 0.12 | -0.11 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.88 | 0.49 | -0.57 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.11 |
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 10.6% | 66.1% | 93.8 mph | 32 | 18.6s | -23 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.56 | -0.02 | 0.97 | -0.05 | 0.90 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.12 | -0.01 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.37 |
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p
Summary
Lefty connoisseurs, assemble: Chris Sale just went eight scoreless with nine strikeouts against Washington, and MacKenzie Gore held Atlanta hitless into the sixth in that same series, so the bats may again be mostly set dressing. This gNERD 9.58 is built on the arms—pNERD 8.84 (Sale) and 6.84 (Gore) are well above today’s average—while both teams’ tNERDs sit near the basement, so expect the pitchers to do the entertaining.
Sale’s underlying skill still screams appointment viewing: a 71 xFIP- here and a sub-3 xFIP projection elsewhere (2.92), plus he became the fastest ever to 2,500 career strikeouts earlier this season. Gore isn’t far behind on the intrigue scale, pairing 95+ velocity with a roughly league-better xFIP- (90) and 182 punchouts in 157.2 innings. The recent head-to-head offers a tidy preview: Sale dominated; Gore matched zeros into the sixth; Atlanta finally broke Washington late.
If you require a storyline beyond the K’s, Atlanta arrives riding an eight-game run of 5+ runs scored, though today’s low team-NERDs caution against expecting a shootout; this is watchable because the lefties are.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)
Washington Nationals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -54.8 | 7.8% | -1.1 | -43.3 | -3.7 | $115.9M | 27.5 | -34.0 | 2.00 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.77 | -0.62 | -0.23 | -1.86 | -1.63 | -0.77 | -1.25 | -1.54 | -0.75 | -0.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.77 | -0.62 | -0.23 | -1.86 | -1.63 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.90 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.0 | 8.8% | -8.7 | 6.4 | 9.3 | $216.2M | 29.4 | 10.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.01 | 0.21 | -1.34 | 0.29 | -1.02 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.44 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.01 | 0.21 | -1.34 | 0.29 | -1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.59 |
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 13.4% | 62.8% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 19.3s | 5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 1.32 | -0.46 | 0.64 | -0.67 | 0.63 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.66 | -0.23 | 0.64 | 0.67 | -0.31 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.84 |
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71 | 13.6% | 67.1% | 94.8 mph | 36 | 19.7s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.84 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 0.41 | 1.94 | 0.95 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.68 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.41 | 0.00 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.84 |
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p
Summary
The gNERD puts this near the bottom of today’s slate, but it’s a stealth watch if you like contrasts: a 42-year-old tinkerer on a late-season upswing vs. a 24-year-old contact manager backed by a slick defense. Add the Giants’ thin wild-card pulse and you’ve got just enough stakes to keep the remote holstered.
Justin Verlander has finally found bite: seven scoreless in his last outing and only three runs allowed over his past five starts, part of a two-month course correction after an 0-8 opening stretch. The matchup also carries a callback—earlier this month St. Louis erased six scoreless from Verlander with a ninth-inning ambush, the same night he passed Gaylord Perry on the all-time strikeout list.
Michael McGreevy arrives off seven zeros against Cincinnati; he’s more sequencing than sizzle, with an xFIP profile around average and the Cards’ gloves and bullpen built to make that play.
Offensively, both clubs are light on barrels, and St. Louis is further dulled without Willson Contreras, whose season-ending shoulder strain leaves a lineup gap.
If this stays tight late—and the Giants’ staff has been volatile of late—there’s upset potential.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -29.4 | 7.8% | -5.6 | 23.5 | 48.4 | $135.7M | 28.6 | -19.0 | 2.17 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.40 | -0.62 | -0.89 | 1.04 | 0.80 | -0.50 | -0.13 | -0.86 | -0.43 | -0.50 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.40 | -0.62 | -0.89 | 1.04 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.56 |
San Francisco Giants
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -25.9 | 7.4% | -9.9 | 7.3 | 32.9 | $195.3M | 29.3 | -24.0 | 3.20 | 3.49 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.35 | -0.95 | -1.51 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 0.59 | -1.09 | 1.59 | 2.34 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.35 | -0.95 | -1.51 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 101 | 7.8% | 62.5% | 92.5 mph | 24 | 19.2s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.01 | -1.35 | -0.61 | -0.64 | -1.19 | 0.55 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.02 | -0.68 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 1.19 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 111 | 10.8% | 65.5% | 94.0 mph | 42 | 19.3s | -20 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.60 | 0.08 | 0.71 | 0.05 | 3.51 | 0.63 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.20 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.73 |