MLB: What to watch on September 23, 2025

• 23 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

Today’s gNERD king spotlights a surging rookie with real bat-missing weapons versus a star-laden lineup playing for its season. The Cubs are already secure, while the Mets are neck-and-neck (and behind on tiebreakers) for the NL’s final Wild Card, so every pitch has teeth.
Cade Horton brings mid-90s heat with a sweeper/changeup combo that drives whiffs, and his underlying line (around a mid-3s FIP with a long run of stingy outings) backs the surface shine; think zone-filling poise rather than max-effort chaos. The Cubs’ style props the watchability, too: elite run prevention and rangy gloves plus an aggressively opportunistic running game tend to turn balls in play into action. The Mets counter with thunder — a top-tier barrel profile here meets the “Fab Four” of Alonso, Soto (flirting with 40–40), Lindor, and Nimmo, which is why their tNERD hums. David Peterson grades as above-average by estimators (xFIP- in the black), but he’s recently leaked big innings, the kind that up the drama and bullpen involvement. One subplot: Kyle Tucker has been nursing a calf; if he’s limited, that dings Chicago’s middle-order thump. All told, a top-of-the-day gNERD with playoff stakes, contrasting identities, and a rookie making his case is easy appointment viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs

David Peterson, New York Mets

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

A division race, a buzzsaw ace, and a bullpen that never blinks: this is the watch. Tarik Skubal versus a surging Guardians staff, with Cleveland holding the tiebreaker and Detroit clinging to a one‑game lead, is stakes plus stuff.

Skubal’s pNERD is elite and his profile backs it: upper‑90s heat, top‑tier xFIP-, and strike/whiff rates that make hitters defensive; he’s also shredded Cleveland this year (32 K, 2 BB in 22 IP, including a CGSO) and was cleared after a brief rib‑cage scare. Gavin Williams brings mid‑90s velocity and recent form, including 11 scoreless innings versus Detroit and a strong last‑six‑start run, even if his underlying run estimators sit closer to average.

The team ingredients explain the big gNERD: Detroit’s bats bring barrels and baserunning pop, while a shakier bullpen adds late‑inning chaos; Cleveland’s offense is lighter but pairs elite defense with a relief corps that’s been a feature since last year. With the Guardians riding a rotation tear and the standings razor‑thin, every pitch matters—especially because Cleveland’s pen rarely coughs up a lead.

Given Skubal’s top‑of‑the‑day pNERD and a gNERD well above the historical 95th percentile, prioritize this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Two reasons this pops: Cristopher Sánchez’s run as an xFIP bully meets Edward Cabrera’s power‑stuff return from the IL. And with Philly already division‑clinched and angling for the NLDS bye, the stakes are real enough to keep the throttle open.

At 15.72, the gNERD sits near the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically, and the shape explains why: Sánchez’s pNERD (9.5) is fueled by a 69 xFIP‑ and plus strike throwing, the kind of profile that recently produced eight scoreless against Detroit and a season line that’s been worthy of his pre‑season extension. Cabrera (8.14 pNERD) returns from an elbow strain with 97‑ish heat and that occasionally ludicrous mid‑90s changeup; he punched out 10 Braves in late August and has the raw stuff to turn a lineup over even if the command wanders.

Teamwise, Philly’s higher tNERD (8.45) shows up in better bats and real baserunning value, and the Duran‑fortified bullpen adds late‑inning octane if needed. Miami’s younger, low‑payroll roster adds some chaos, but its bullpen drags. With Trea Turner nursing a hamstring, the Phillies have still been fine to prioritize rest while they lock down that bye.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Shohei under the Chase Field roof with a gNERD of 15.43 is a “drop the remote” situation: elite pNERD (12.34) versus a foe that actually gives him a fight. It’s Ohtani’s final tune‑up, fresh off five hitless innings and still leading the NL in homers, while Arizona plays with wild‑card urgency — that’s premium watchability. Ohtani’s xFIP- sits at an ace-level 64 and he’s averaging ~98 mph heat, a velocity bump that pairs with his swing‑and‑miss profile; Pfaadt’s more mortal xFIP- (96) is balanced by the fact he’s 4-0 with a 3.81 ERA against LA across the last two seasons, making this less of a mismatch than it first appears. The team side leans Dodgers (tNERD 7.44 vs. 5.20) thanks to top‑tier bat quality and a sturdier bullpen, while Arizona’s entertainment comes from speed and defense, not late‑inning certainty. The stakes are real: LA is closing in on the division, and the D‑backs are hovering about a game from a wild‑card slot — narrative fuel atop already top‑decile historical gNERD and among today’s best.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

A top-tier gNERD tilt (12.27) pits ‘new-to-you’ heat against veteran craft: Zebby Matthews vs. Patrick Corbin, with Texas still missing Corey Seager after a late‑August appendectomy. Expect brisk pace and variance—Matthews’ underlying xFIP- (91) and velocity make him watchable even after his nine‑run wobble last time out, while Corbin has pieced together steadier September turns.

The NERD mix explains the appeal: a high pNERD edge for Matthews (9.55) thanks to efficient strike‑throwing and premium velo, versus Corbin’s league‑average underlying run prevention (xFIP- 99) and soft adjustments. Minnesota’s bullpen strength (positive tNERD component) raises the late‑inning ceiling, while Texas contributes entertainment via elite defense and plus baserunning—even with the lineup thinned without Seager. Layer in timely context: the Twins’ rotation is youth‑tilted with Pablo López shut down, though a returning Christian Vázquez gives Matthews a veteran receiver, and there’s a fun subplot with Texas importing ex‑Twin Danny Coulombe at the deadline. Relative to today’s slate, this lands above average and near the historic upper quartile, making it a worthy click if you enjoy the contrast of raw stuff versus guile.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Minnesota Twins

Texas Rangers

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Playoff-tuned Toronto just clinched the AL’s first postseason berth and rolls in behind Kevin Gausman’s two-hit, 100-pitch shutout; that’s a pretty good watchability starter kit. Boston counters with Lucas Giolito, freshly past the 140-inning threshold that unlocked his opt-out, adding a contract subplot to a series Toronto currently leads 7–3.

At gNERD 12.17, this sits a shade above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile, buoyed by lively team components (avg tNERD 7.91) more than frontline pNERD (4.26). Boston’s tNERD pop comes from baserunning, gloves, and a bullpen that actually raises the floor of a Giolito start; the model pegs him with a tougher xFIP- (107) and slower pace. Meanwhile, Gausman’s profile (xFIP- 90 with strike-throwing back in form) plus that recent CG suggests fewer freebies and more splitter-aided chases. If you like contrasts, it’s Sox pressure and prevention versus Jays fielding and Gausman’s feel; and he already logged eight innings of one unearned run against Boston earlier. Also: Toronto has already punched October’s ticket, which lends stakes for seeding while Boston’s still jostling.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Come for Cole Ragans’ bat-missing arsenal; stay for the likelihood the Angels’ gloves and bullpen supply plot twists. With Ragans carrying a top-tier pNERD and LAA turning to a recalled rookie, the watchability needle leans pitcher-driven.

Ragans (pNERD 12.12; xFIP- 63) is making just his second start since a rotator-cuff IL stint, sitting upper-90s on return and reminding why he’s appointment viewing; Kansas City will likely still monitor his pitch count, but the strike-throwing and whiffs travel. The Angels, meanwhile, are patching a rotation thinned by José Soriano’s season-ending IL move, prompting a recall for lefty Sam Aldegheri, who now draws his first start of the year with only a few big-league innings on his card.

The gNERD (11.65) sits a tick above today’s average and comfortably above the historic median, almost entirely on the shoulders of the starters; team-wise it’s a mixed bag. KC’s fielding/bullpen help, and a sizable positive “Luck” suggests their run prevention may be better than results. The Angels counter with pop (strong barrel rate) but bottom-tier defense and bullpen drag, a combustible combo against a power lefty. In short: watch for Ragans, and for chaos behind Aldegheri.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

Sam Aldegheri, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Logan Webb’s ground-ball clinic in a homer-stifling park is the sell; if you enjoy 7-inning efficiency and infield choreography, this is your watch. The gNERD (11.19) sits mid-board today but above the historical norm, and it leans hard on Webb’s top-tier pNERD against two light-barrel lineups in a run-suppressing yard.

Webb’s pNERD (9.84) matches the eye test: he’s within arm’s reach of another 200-inning season and has more 7+ IP starts than anyone since 2023, a workhorse built for low-scoring tension at Oracle. Andre Pallante’s profile (average-ish estimators, few whiffs, slower tempo) points to a contact-heavy night, which puts St. Louis’s strong gloves and bullpen squarely into the watchability equation while capping overall fireworks. The park helps, too—Oracle throttles homers, which dampens both clubs’ modest barrel rates. With both teams hovering around .500 and clinging to faint wild-card relevance, context adds a little edge without promising chaos. Recent form says San Francisco’s bats have been frigid while Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson have provided most of the Cardinals’ spark; Webb vs. that group is the key matchup. If you’re prioritizing, tune for Webb’s command and the infield action; stay late only if the Cardinals’ bullpen door creaks open.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

St. Louis Cardinals

San Francisco Giants

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

If you like chaos, this is your stop: Milwaukee’s run-happy lineup meets a Padres club fresh off clinching and leaning on a lights-out bullpen built for late-inning theater. The gNERD is mid-pack, but the styles scream watchable. Milwaukee’s elite tNERD (9.70) and San Diego’s strong tNERD (7.24) lift a gNERD of 10.76 that sits just above the historic median but a hair below today’s slate average; the drag is the starting-pitcher component, where both pNERDs are south of average. Zimmermann is a genuine wildcard: freshly selected from Triple-A (109:30 K:BB in 138 IP) and back in MLB for the first time since 2023, so expect tight reins and a quick hook. On the other side, Randy Vásquez’s run prevention has outpaced his peripherals (5.21 FIP), a flashing caution sign against a club that manufactures offense with speed. That matters because San Diego’s offense doesn’t slug much and prefers to hand games to a deep relief group headlined by Mason Miller, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suárez—even after Jason Adam’s season-ending injury. Add in last night’s clinch and ongoing seeding stakes, and this profiles as bullpen chess plus Brewers mayhem on the bases.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

Bruce Zimmermann, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

A mid-tier watch with upside: Pepiot’s bat-missing and the Rays’ track-meet baserunning run into Kremer’s post-forearm checkup and an Orioles pen that has sprung leaks. If you like tactics—pickoffs, pitch sequencing, and whether Adley’s return steadies things—there’s plenty to chew on.

By gNERD (9.82) this sits below today’s average, but Tampa Bay’s higher tNERD props it up: they pressure with steals (185 SB to Baltimore’s 106) and lean on a sturdier bullpen, both ingredients for watchability even when the bats scuffle. Pepiot profiles as the more volatile strikeout bet (161 K in 163 IP with a FIP around 4.4), built on a velo/changeup combo the Rays encourage him to lean on; that miss-and-movement package can play against Baltimore’s swing-happy middle. Kremer, meanwhile, just returned from forearm discomfort looking sound, but Baltimore’s relief crew has coughed up late leads lately, which keeps chaos live even if he settles in. One subplot worth your remote: Adley Rutschman is back from the IL and catching again, a stabilizer Baltimore badly needs after a churn-heavy season that included May’s managerial change to interim Tony Mansolino. If you’re triaging, think “solid floor, spiky ending”—Pepiot vs. Kremer is credible, but the late innings might be the hook.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Rookie-righty rematch with actual bite: Hurston Waldrep’s power stuff against Brad Lord’s brisk, contact-averse vibe is the draw here. Atlanta’s rolling despite losing Ozzie Albies to a season-ending hamate fracture, so the lineup shuffles but the watchability rests on the kids.

The gNERD sits at 8.77—below today’s average—because the teams don’t help much, but the arms do, with an average pNERD of 7.02. Waldrep’s 7.79 pNERD is backed by a strong xFIP- (88), premium velocity, and a quick pace; in his last meeting with Washington he punched out eight without a walk in five innings, the kind of bat-missing skill this model rewards. Lord (6.26 pNERD) lacks a big whiff pitch but works fast, throws strikes, and has earned trust as a rookie starter; he just logged 102 pitches and was charged with two earned in a gritty turn against these same Braves.

Team-wise, Atlanta arrives on a nine-game heater and has handled Washington all year, but Albies’ absence dings their infield rhythm and baserunning. Washington’s poor defense and bullpen tug tNERD down, so if you’re queuing this up, do it to scout Waldrep’s miss rate versus Lord’s contact management—and to see how a hot Braves club navigates without its second baseman.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

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Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

A mid-tier gNERD (8.11) gets a standings-sized boost: the Yankees’ bats and playoff chase elevate a game that’s more about thump than a duel on the mound. If you’re here for pitching, it’s rookie All-Star Shane Smith’s intrigue versus a volatile Luis Gil, not ace-on-ace theater. Smith’s pNERD (5.06) is the better of the two, with average-ish run estimators (xFIP- 104) and real oomph, though he just wore a six-run bruise against Baltimore; still, he was named an All-Star and has largely looked the part when healthy. Gil’s pNERD (0.12) and peripherals (xFIP- 132) flag command risk that’s also shown up in his recent walk profile, even as he’s returned from a lat issue. The team split is stark: Yankees tNERD 8.17 rides elite contact quality, while the White Sox’s 2.88 reflects light bats and leaky defense; New York also took three of four in their late-August meeting and is two back in the AL East, with Ben Rice swinging it well, which adds juice. Net: watch for Yankees’ barrels against a legit rookie and stay for the stakes; just don’t expect a masterpiece from both starters.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

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Houston Astros @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

This one’s more “curious watch” than must‑see: a gNERD of 7.82 sits below today’s average (11.43), and the intrigue tilts toward team quirks rather than ace-versus-ace theater. Still, playoff‑tinged Astros at the Sacramento‑based Athletics offers enough subplots to justify a skim.

Cristian Javier is the headline experiment: recently back from Tommy John, he finally flashed six sturdy innings and a win over Texas, with his pitch count nudging up — a meaningful test of whether command-first Javier can hold gains under pressure; Brent Rooker is 0-for-6 off him if you’re into micro‑matchups. Jeffrey Springs, acquired to prop up the A’s rotation, has scuffled of late (0-4 over his past eight), which meshes with the low combined pNERD (1.43) signaling more contact than whiffs. Houston’s tNERD edge comes from run prevention — strong gloves and a capable bullpen that’s been closing out wins — a helpful buffer with Yordan Álvarez shelved. Meanwhile, the A’s higher tNERD is buoyed by youth, a budget roster, and a big positive luck component, suggesting their results may lag their underlying talent. In short: if you watch, do it to see whether Javier’s post‑surgery version endures and whether Springs can steady enough to keep a wild‑card‑hungry lineup in range.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

If you want dingers and stakes, this is your stop: Cal Raleigh just broke Ken Griffey Jr.’s franchise HR record and Seattle is trying to land a division flag, which turns a modest gNERD (7.20) into appointment viewing. It’s also a soft landing for that power—the Rockies arrive with one of the league’s worst run-prevention groups and a rookie starter still writing his bio.

Seattle’s tNERD carries the matchup, built on a top-3 home-run profile (roughly 230 and counting) and a lineup that’s been louder than its batting average suggests; Raleigh has taken the MLB lead in homers while topping the all-time catcher mark. The probable arms further tilt the watchability: Bryce Miller has worked back from elbow trouble and has pitched to a FIP in the mid‑5s this year—volatile but with strikeout upside—while Colorado counters with recent call-up McCade Brown (TJ in 2023), who only debuted a few weeks ago and is still getting stretched out. Seattle’s bullpen depth has been tested (Gregory Santos out; Bryan Woo banged up), adding a little late-inning coin-flip energy.

Relative to today’s slate (average gNERD 11.43), this sits low; but if you’re prioritizing power vs. a thin staff and a contender tune-up, it’s a worthwhile watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Colorado Rockies

Seattle Mariners

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

It grades as today’s lowest gNERD, but the Reds’ wild‑card push and Brady Singer’s current heater make it livelier than the number implies. Johan Oviedo’s post–TJ ramp‑up — with a season‑high 99 pitches last time — plus a possible Hunter Barco cameo for Pittsburgh add just enough curiosity to keep the channel from drifting.

Singer takes his 31st turn and, while his pNERD says “solid, not flashy” (league‑average-ish xFIP‑ at 102), he works quickly, which helps watchability; Oviedo’s profile (118 xFIP‑, lagging strike% in our inputs) is more volatile but the velo is back. The team ingredients are mixed: Cincinnati brings plus baserunning to a contact‑light lineup, while Pittsburgh’s bats have lived near the basement but pair sturdy gloves and a capable bullpen if they get a lead. The net of those tNERD pieces explains the modest gNERD, but the game-state stakes do some heavy lifting.

Context matters: Cincinnati just swept the Cubs to pull even for the final NL spot, and Singer has been on a 5‑1 run with run prevention to match across his last seven starts. Oviedo is only seven starts into his comeback, which keeps the unknowns — and the potential for quick hooks and bullpen chess — in play. Tune for tempo and urgency, not fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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