MLB: What to watch on September 24, 2025

• 24 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Top of the watchability board and it earns it: gNERD 15.73 pits Cy-caliber Garrett Crochet against the name-brand gravity of Max Scherzer, with Boston desperate for wins while Toronto tunes up minus key pieces. If you’re saving one window, this is the one.

Crochet’s elite pNERD (12.28) backs up a season of power and precision—he’s piled up 240-plus strikeouts across nearly 200 innings with a sub-3 FIP, and he’s been on a heater (13–1 over his last 19 starts). Scherzer, meanwhile, is trying to steady things after an abbreviated, injury-tinged year that recently included a 0.2-inning, 7-run blowup; the name still pops, but the underlying run prevention hasn’t. The team inputs say “watch”: Boston’s high tNERD rides a sharp bullpen and plus fielding and baserunning, while Toronto’s tNERD blends elite defense with a contact-first offense—but the Jays are without Bo Bichette to finish the regular season, and they just lost Ty France while activating Anthony Santander. Stakes add juice: Toronto has already clinched and is jockeying for seeding, while Boston’s margin is thin enough that every Crochet day feels like a must-have.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

This one sits atop the watchability heap: a gNERD 15.72 that’s above the 95th percentile historically, plus real stakes after the Mets staged a wild comeback against a Cubs team trying to halt a skid. Rookie Jonah Tong’s mystery-box arsenal meets Matthew Boyd’s Wrigley-tuned precision—youthful whiffs versus veteran sequencing.

The appeal here is two excellent tNERDs colliding: the Mets bring top-tier thunder (barrels and NL-leading power vibes) against a Chicago club that runs the bases well and catches everything, and the contrast on the mound sweetens it. Boyd has been All-Star-caliber run prevention with a FIP around 3.10 and a notably strong home track record; if he’s in the zone early, Chicago’s bullpen finally gets a breather. Tong, making just his fifth MLB start, offers novelty and upside—a ride-y four-seamer paired with a revamped Vulcan-change that’s spiking whiffs—and he’s fresh off a five-inning, eight‑strikeout scoreless start. Add in New York’s late-inning punch (Nimmo, Alvarez, Alonso) and the Cubs’ urgency to stop the slide, and you’ve got action in all phases even if the pNERD side is merely average. If you like stakes, swing decisions, and outfield walls tested, this is your pick.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Jesús Luzardo facing his former club is the hook; Kyle Schwarber’s homer chase is the fuse. With a gNERD of 15.41—near the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically—this grades as must-watch. Luzardo’s pNERD (10.01) is carrying real teeth: an xFIP- of 81 with mid‑90s velocity, whiffs to spare, and recent outings with double‑digit strikeouts, now doing it in Phillies pinstripes after the winter trade from Miami. Ryan Weathers isn’t window dressing; the lefty brings 96.9 mph heat, works quickly, and sits near league‑average run prevention by xFIP, enough to make this a real duel if his strike rate cooperates. Philadelphia’s higher tNERD (8.35) is powered by bats and baserunning, and Schwarber just launched No. 54 as the Phillies press for the NL’s top seed—though Trea Turner remains sidelined while Alec Bohm recently returned. Miami arrives on a seven‑game heater after an 11‑inning comeback at this park, and both bullpens grade volatile, so late‑inning entropy is firmly in play; even J.T. Realmuto’s hand scare came back clean.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Two triple‑digit fastballs, one home‑run pinball machine, and a playoff race on a tightrope: if you pick one pitchers’ duel, make it this one.
Skenes vs. Greene is peak gNERD—near the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically—because the arms dramatically outshine the bats.

Paul Skenes brings elite underlying run prevention (mid‑2s FIP) with upper‑90s heat and that splinker/changeup mix that turned heads, while Hunter Greene counters with a league‑best fastball and newly tidy strike throwing; he just spun a one‑hit, nine‑inning shutout and owns top‑tier xERA/K‑BB traits. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s urgency is real after dropping ground in the wild‑card chase, and Pittsburgh’s offense has lived near the cellar, which is why the gNERD leans so hard on the starters despite Great American’s homer boost. In short: high‑octane stuff, real stakes, and a bandbox where even tiny mistakes matter—watch for whiffs, not rallies.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

gNERD 15.15 says “watch this,” and the context agrees: Dylan Cease’s whiff machine meets Milwaukee’s high-tNERD chaos in a game with real seeding juice. San Diego has already clinched and is pressing for better positioning after a walk-off to open the set and a 7–0 follow-up, and Xander Bogaerts just returned to the lineup. Cease carries the day’s premium pNERD (8.49), built on power and misses (97 mph, big whiff rates) and supported by 200+ strikeouts this year, the profile that best stress-tests Milwaukee’s contact-first approach. Chad Patrick’s pNERD (4.85) is more modest, but his mix-y, cutter/changeup look and league-average xFIP (xFIP- 98) can still turn innings tidy if he gets ahead. Team-wise, this rates high because both clubs bring entertainment drivers: Milwaukee’s top-tier tNERD (9.60) leans on speed, defense and depth, while San Diego’s bullpen grades extremely well and the Petco broadcast is a plus. The Brewers are patching a rotation thinned by Brandon Woodruff’s lat strain and José Quintana’s calf IL stint, which elevates the Padres’ strikeout edge but also spotlights Milwaukee’s elite pen. Relative to today’s slate and even the historic distribution, this sits near the top for pure watchability.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Milwaukee Brewers

San Diego Padres

Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

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Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Come for deGrom’s curtain call; stay to see whether a 24-year-old with upper-90s can hang. At gNERD 13.10—comfortably above the day’s average—this is a premium pitching watch.

Jacob deGrom (pNERD 9.38, xFIP- 81, 97.5 mph) is lined up for his final scheduled start, and with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien shut down, the mound is the Rangers’ show. Probables: deGrom vs. Taj Bradley. DeGrom has dominated at home (2.39 ERA) and his run prevention remains strong (3.58 FIP), aligning with the model. Bradley brings velocity (96.3) and youth (pNERD 6.16), but a league-average xFIP- (105) and shaky strike rates make him volatile—in a fun way. Minnesota’s tNERD leans on a good bullpen, handy if Bradley exits early; Texas adds watchability with plus defense and baserunning. DeGrom is coming off a clunker (5 ER vs. Houston), which is context, not destiny. With a strong pNERD average (7.77) and a gNERD that sits above the historic 75th percentile, expect elite pitch quality, tight run prevention, and enough uncertainty to keep you from channel surfing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Minnesota Twins

Texas Rangers

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Two teams knotted atop the Central with the tiebreaker in Cleveland’s pocket makes this a high‑stress watch; add Flaherty–Bibee round two and you’ve got playoff vibes without the bracket. The opener of this set swung the standings into a dead heat and gave Cleveland the head‑to‑head edge, so every pitch here tilts the division math. With a gNERD of 12.75, this lands above today’s average and in the historical upper quartile, and the reasons show up on the field: Detroit brings barrels and speed, Cleveland counters with elite defense, plus baserunning and a late‑inning bullpen edge—prime ingredients for a taut finish. Jack Flaherty owns the stronger pNERD and an xFIP- of 89, works a brisk pace, and just held Cleveland to one run over five; Tanner Bibee’s underlying is more average, but he’s recently limited Detroit to one run over six and has strung together three sharp September starts. The probables are indeed Flaherty vs. Bibee, and after Cleveland’s earlier win tightened the race, this sequel is appointment viewing for those who enjoy defense-and-bullpen chess against a lineup that can still punish mistakes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

A strikeout artist on a heater meets a desperate lineup and two mercurial bullpens; this one rates high on pure stuff and playoff stakes.
If you like lefty whiffs with a chance of late-inning chaos, you’ve found your window.

With a 12.72 gNERD, this sits above today’s slate average and the historic 75th percentile. Snell’s second-half indicators (3.08 FIP, 2.74 xFIP) back the surge, and MLB’s own research just dropped the nugget that he became the first since 1905 to stack consecutive starts of 11+ K, ≤2 hits, ≤2 walks, 0 runs, 0 XBH. Nelson isn’t a pushover: post-break he’s tightened the strike-zone math (3.47 FIP, 3.75 xFIP; September xFIP 2.83), giving Arizona a viable counter. The stakes add juice — the Dodgers’ lead shrank to 1.5 games while Arizona sits a game out of a wild card — and they just played a bullpen-rock fight that flipped late. That matters because Arizona’s relief group has been a season-long soft spot by advanced metrics, even as roles churned. Offensively, a top-tier Dodger barrel rate and run creation drive their tNERD edge, while Arizona’s speed/defense keep rallies alive. Translation: premium starter vs. credible foil, real stakes, and a frisky finishing kick — decidedly watchable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Houston Astros @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

If you’re triaging screens, this one earns a spot because it’s a playoff-tinged measuring stick: ace-caliber Hunter Brown against a spoiler-minded A’s club that’s been thumping lately. Luis Severino’s contact-leaning rebound leaves a tightrope for Houston’s short-handed lineup. gNERD 11.75 sits above the historical median yet a tick under today’s average, but Brown’s pNERD edge (7.77 vs. 3.09) boosts watchability: he’s been one of the AL’s top arms by WAR/FIP and just crossed 200 Ks, all with upper-90s juice and real bat-missing, a fine antidote to Sutter Health Park’s carry. The Astros, though, are light on thump: Yordan Álvarez is on the IL and Jeremy Peña’s oblique has shelved him, which is how a game like this tilts from must-see to merely “ought to.” Oakland’s watchability comes from bats and context: three different 30-homer threats (Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker) and a bullpen that’s steadied even after dealing Mason Miller. Severino brings 96 and more grounders than whiffs (~7 K/9), meaning Houston’s runs likely have to string singles, not detonate them. Meanwhile, the A’s are relishing the spoiler role against Houston’s wobbly wild-card push.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Luis Severino, Athletics

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Shane Baz’s premium velocity and above-average run suppression meet Tyler Wells’ just-off-the-IL precision, a tidy stuff-vs.-command watch with real upside. Add Tampa Bay’s run-happy style and Baltimore’s lineup getting Adley Rutschman back, and you’ve got a mid-tier gNERD that could play above its seed.
At 11.09 gNERD, this sits a hair below today’s slate average (12.15) but above the historical median (10.10), reflecting solid ingredients without the full sizzle. Baz’s 7.64 pNERD is powered by 97 mph heat and a better-than-average xFIP- (91), while his pace isn’t exactly brisk—perfect for pitch-shape sightseeing. Wells’ 0.00 pNERD signals “data gap,” not verdict; since being reinstated from UCL repair he’s logged 17.2 innings with a 14:1 K:BB and two wins, giving this start novelty value.
Team-wise, the Rays’ tNERD edge leans on elite baserunning and a trustworthy bullpen, which pairs nicely with Baz’s bat-missing profile; Baltimore’s lower tNERD stems from shakier run prevention, but the bats can still sting. The Orioles just blanked Tampa Bay behind Dean Kremer—useful context, not prophecy—and prospects like Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo have been flashing damage.
Net: a watchable matchup where Wells’ return story and Rutschman’s presence meet Baz’s stuff; if you’re channel-surfing, don’t skip this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

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Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

It’s Max Fried Day in the Bronx, which is usually enough; add the Yankees’ elite barrel rate against a likely White Sox bullpen game and you’ve got a front‑loaded watch. With New York freshly clinched, this profiles as a crisp playoff tune‑up for Fried.

gNERD 10.98 lands just above the historic median but below today’s slate average; the intrigue is the Yankees’ tNERD (8.37) dwarfing Chicago’s 2.85. Fried’s pNERD (5.73) is buoyed by a sharp xFIP- of 81 and steady mid‑90s velo, and he’s fresh off a 13‑strikeout scoreless outing—precisely the kind of whiff show that sustains watchability even if the lineup lightens. Opposite him, Fraser Ellard’s pNERD is 0.00 because we lack starter‑caliber data; he’s a relief lefty the Sox have toggled in and out and may deploy as an opener, which tilts the early innings toward Judge & Co. The Yankees’ bats already rate as barrel-happy here via tNERD, so the floor stays high even if a regular sits.

If you’re prioritizing: watch the first five. Fried is likely lining up for Game 1 next week, which argues for efficiency over volume—and for a quality sampler of his playoff form.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees

Fraser Ellard, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Sonny Gray’s high-pNERD arm chasing 200 strikeouts collides with JT Brubaker’s first MLB start since 2022; if you like “known ace vs. mystery box,” this is your channel. With San Francisco already eliminated and St. Louis still breathing faintly, the subplots carry more juice than the average midweeker.

At 10.75, the gNERD sits a hair below today’s average but near the historical median, and the reason to tune in is mostly Gray: his 8.16 pNERD is well above today’s pitcher slate, buoyed by a strong xFIP profile even if the pace drags a tad. Brubaker’s pNERD is a data void, which is precisely the intrigue—first start since Oct. 4, 2022 after the long TJ road, now wearing orange and black. Meanwhile, the Giants’ elimination and a battered, reconfigured bullpen (Doval dealt, Randy Rodríguez out, Ryan Walker back closing) nudge the Cards’ offense from “meh tNERD” to “could get late chances.” Add in Brendan Donovan’s four-double show and Iván Herrera’s recent thump, and there’s enough offense to punish any rust.

If you prioritize pitching storylines and outcome stakes over aesthetic base‑running, this is a worthwhile watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

St. Louis Cardinals

San Francisco Giants

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

JT Brubaker, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

**Call it “Castillo’s tune‑up in a clinch week”: Seattle just punched its playoff ticket and is still jockeying for AL West positioning, while Colorado brings the league’s leakiest run prevention. ** The gNERD is modest, but the Mariners’ power and a clear mound edge make this a worthy side-screen watch.

At 7.44, this sits near the lower end of today’s slate, dragged by a lopsided tNERD split (SEA 5.38 vs. COL −0.86) and only average pNERDs. Still, Luis Castillo’s profile (xFIP- ~100 with above‑avg velo) and recent six scoreless frames against Kansas City suggest a clean, efficient outing, and he’s slated opposite Tanner Gordon. Gordon has quietly strung together five quality starts in six, but his underlying indicators point more to contact than whiffs, which is awkward against a lineup that’s launched 18 homers in its last 10 games, with Cal Raleigh pacing the surge. The Rockies’ end of the bargain is thin: near‑bottom run production and the majors’ worst run prevention (team ERA hovering around 6) cap their tNERD and the game’s ceiling. If you’re hunting a subplot, Castillo has twice blanked Colorado for seven with nine Ks since joining Seattle; if that trend holds, the entertainment here is mostly watching the home side sharpen the knives.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Colorado Rockies

Seattle Mariners

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 9:15a

Summary

A low-gNERD curiosity play: Bryce Elder’s hurry-up routine versus a rookie mystery box in Andrew Alvarez gives this NL East shrug just enough shape to peek at. If you like fast innings, soft contact, and a chance to scout a fresh lefty, this is your lane.

At 7.35, the gNERD sits well below both today’s average and the historical median, and the team components are the drag: Washington’s bats, gloves, and bullpen all grade poorly while Atlanta’s tNERD is only modestly sunnier. Elder is the known quantity—near‑average underlying run prevention (xFIP- ~98), very quick tempo, low whiffs—and he’s coming off a legitimately sharp, seven‑inning, one‑run start, even if his season contact profile still invites damage. Meanwhile, Alvarez debuted this month and remains data‑sparse; that lack of a pNERD read is part of the intrigue, not a selling point.

Storylines help: Atlanta’s riding a double‑digit win streak while patching around Ozzie Albies’s hamate‑related IL stint; Washington is in talent‑audit mode, giving kids reps after injuries thinned the staff. If you tune in, do it to watch Elder’s pace and to get first impressions on Alvarez—and to see whether power bats like James Wood can interrupt the Braves’ groove.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Today’s lowest gNERD on the board (6.99) isn’t a total write‑off: a whiff‑happy Angels lineup meets Stephen Kolek’s quick tempo, while Yusei Kikuchi closes out a career‑high workload. If you like sliders, strikeouts, and a little defensive roulette, there’s enough here to keep the remote parked.

Kolek vs. Kikuchi is confirmed, with Kikuchi set for his 33rd start, a new personal high. On the mound, neither pNERD pops (Kolek 4.00; Kikuchi 3.71), but there are hooks: Kolek works fast (17.5s) with near‑average run prevention (xFIP‑ 98) and just logged 8 efficient innings with a career‑high eight Ks; Kikuchi brings real velocity (94.8 mph) and a league‑average xFIP‑ (103), even if the command wanders. The Angels punch out in bulk—over 1,400 team strikeouts—which gives Kolek some punch‑up potential despite a modest SwStr%. On the team side, the Royals’ watchability leans on defense (+14.5 fielding runs) and a competent ‘pen, while the Angels’ tNERD is dragged down by dreadful fielding (‑54.9) and a leaky bullpen. Recent context adds some narrative: Kansas City was just bounced from the race but is playing for a winning finish, and Salvador Perez just passed Hal McRae for second on the club’s RBI list; the Angels have dropped 10 of 11.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

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