MLB: What to watch on September 25, 2025

• 25 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

Top of the slate for watchability: rookie firebrand vs. Opening Day stalwart with real playoff leverage. gNERD loves it (17.99) and the stakes oblige: the Cubs push toward 90 wins while the Mets cling to the final NL wild card.

Nolan McLean brings a pNERD of 10.17 and the skills to match: a 95 mph fastball, quick pace, and an xFIP- around 71 in our model, plus 28 strikeouts in his first four MLB starts and a debut run that included seven straight outings of two earned or fewer. That’s the profile of a made-for-TV rookie ace rather than a mirage. On the other side, Shota Imanaga’s command keeps traffic light, but the 2025 story has been contact quality: a 4.78 FIP with 1.9 HR/9 means hitters must slug their way through him—something the Mets’ top-tier barrel rate is built to do—even as he’s been solid at Wrigley.

Team-wise, this checks every tNERD box: New York’s bats, baserunning, and a sneaky-good bullpen drive an elite 11.71, while Chicago counters with excellent defense and disruptive baserunning at 10.17. Layer in the standings pressure after the Cubs’ recent win over New York, and you’ve got skill, contrast, and consequence in one tidy package.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

High stakes, a quick-working rookie with a wicked cambio, and two above-average tNERDs make this a clear-queue-it game. Cleveland hands the ball to Parker Messick (pNERD 9.52), while Detroit is listing Keider Montero as probable—an intriguing contrast of a feel/changeup lefty versus a shorter-leash righty.

Cleveland just jumped into first and owns the tiebreaker after taking 17 of 19; that storyline alone juices watchability even if “momentum” isn’t predictive. Detroit, meanwhile, has skidded, which raises the late-inning tension given Cleveland’s elite run prevention profile and bullpen strength baked into its tNERD.

Messick’s appeal is real: a brisk pace and plus changeup, strong underlying run prevention (xFIP- 74), and a debut of 6.2 IP with six punchouts, followed by a 3-0/2.08 opening line in six starts—enough signal to anchor the pitching half of this gNERD.

Detroit still brings watchable ingredients—barrels and aggressive baserunning—but their bullpen drag boosts Cleveland’s late-game edge. Cleveland’s lineup is down a bat with David Fry sidelined after being struck in the face, yet the stakes (and José Ramírez doing José Ramírez things) keep the dial up. Overall gNERD 14.44 sits near the top of today’s slate and well above the historical median; prioritize accordingly.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

Houston Astros @ Athletics, 12:35p

Summary

Houston’s season is dangling by a thread, and a gNERD of 12.82 says this one matters on both the stakes and the stuff. With Seattle clinching the West and Detroit holding the tiebreaker for the final wild card, the Astros are chasing from behind while an energized A’s group goes for the sweep.

The model likes this game more than most today (12.82 vs. today’s 11.09 average and near the historic 75th percentile), and the pitching is the hook: Framber Valdez’s above‑average pNERD (6.67) rides a strong xFIP‑ (81) and the usual grounder machine profile, even if his sinker/GB mix has ebbed and flowed the last couple years. J.T. Ginn counters with a matching xFIP‑ (81) and a sinker/slider look that’s produced six efficient innings in his last turn and has Oakland handing him the ball here. Team-wise, Houston’s watchability leans on elite defense and a sturdy bullpen (positive tNERD components) but with a sputtering offense and key absences likely lingering (Yordan Álvarez, Jeremy Peña), while the A’s rate higher in tNERD thanks to youth, budget chaos, and a sizable positive “luck” flag. Add in the spoiler vibe after a 6–0 shutout that tightened Houston’s bind, and you’ve got real tension plus contrasting pitching styles worth your screen time.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

Ace-vs-bullpen is the hook here: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (pNERD 8.92, xFIP- 74, premium velo) faces an Arizona opener in Jalen Beeks (pNERD 3.41, xFIP- 103), a contrast that tilts toward strikeout art over survival. Layer in stakes—Dodgers can clinch the division, while the D-backs are a game back of the final NL wild card—and you’ve got meaningful baseball with real edge.

On the skills front, L.A.’s bats bring top-tier barrels and run creation (tNERD 7.44), a bad matchup for an Arizona bullpen that grades poorly (bullpen component -1.56). Arizona still plays “fun”: plus baserunning and defense (tNERD 5.31) can manufacture chances and keep contact in play. If Beeks’ below-average strike-throwing shows up, traffic follows; if not, it’s on the relief carousel to dodge barrels. Yamamoto’s profile—efficient strikes, whiffs, and run prevention—has lived like a Cy candidate all year, even if his run support has been stingy enough to invite late drama.

Wildcard subplot: the D-backs reportedly pushed back a rotation arm and are using Beeks to open, and the Dodgers just activated Roki Sasaki, adding the possibility of a cameo from a 100-mph bullpen toy. Bring snacks for the middle innings, but tune in for Yamamoto’s first pitch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jalen Beeks, Arizona Diamondbacks

Go back to top of page

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

The draw here is team-driven chaos: Boston is sprinting toward a berth while Toronto, already in, is wobbling and turning to a Varland-led bullpen day. If you like run prevention vs. contact management, the Jays’ elite gloves against Bello’s sinker/changeup is the axis to watch. Toronto is starting Louis Varland in a short burst before handing it to the pen, a choice that underscores how unsettled they are after a rough week and a suddenly tight division race, while Boston has stacked two straight wins and inched closer to October. The gNERD of 11.99 sits above today’s average and right around the historic 75th percentile, which fits a matchup where the teams’ strong tNERDs carry the watchability more than the arms do. Bello’s pNERD is modest, but he brings 95 mph sinkers and a sweeper/four-seam mix that can live on grounders when he’s right; if he’s not, Toronto’s defense—tops by a wide margin in midseason evaluations—can still turn balls in play into outs. With Boston’s excellent bullpen depth on one side and Toronto’s leather on the other, expect crisp sequencing over headline strikeout totals.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

Louis Varland, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:05a

Summary

If you like efficient pitching with a side of narrative spice, Drew Rasmussen’s sub‑3.00 season crosses paths with Cade Povich’s “my FIP swears I’m better than this” profile. With the series just knotted by a Rays staff gem, this mid‑range gNERD carries real upside.

Both starters sit a tick above today’s pitcher‑NERD average (pNERD ~6.3), and the skill stats back it up: Rasmussen’s xFIP‑ (88) and team‑best FIP (3.72) point to legitimate run prevention without smoke and mirrors, while Povich’s xFIP‑ (94) and much better FIP (~4.3) than ERA scream “bad BABIP luck” and possible positive regression.

The team contrast is the hook. Tampa Bay’s higher tNERD (6.8) comes from elite baserunning and a sturdy bullpen, a nice match with Rasmussen’s mid‑90s heat and strike throwing for a watchable tempo. Baltimore’s tNERD (2.8) is dragged down by shaky defense and relief work, but a decent barrel rate leaves the door open for swingy innings if Povich’s changeup finally gets the results his peripherals suggest; he’s also been notably better in day starts this year.

One subplot: Samuel Basallo exited after a HBP but X‑rays were clean, so monitor whether he’s in the lineup. If he is, add another bat to the intrigue.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:40a

Summary

Stakes and stuff: a wild-card–chasing Reds club turns to Nick Lodolo while the Pirates, fresh off spoiler duty, try to make it three straight gut-punches in Cincinnati. The hook is Braxton Ashcraft’s power arsenal (pNERD 8.74) against a Lodolo who recently hit the IL with a finger blister and hasn’t won in six starts.

At a gNERD of 11.08, this sits a tick above the historical middle and roughly average for today, and it’s watchable because of the arms more than the bats. Ashcraft brings 96–97 and a legit bat-missing slider, with an xFIP- of 86 and plus velocity in our model; the public scouting backs it up. The catch: he hasn’t worked deep (only three 5+ IP outings and 2.6 IP per appearance), which makes Pittsburgh’s strong bullpen a real factor if he exits early. Lodolo (pNERD 6.17) still owns a solid xFIP- (91), but his latest was 4 ER in 4.2 IP vs. the Cubs and that blister setback lingers in the background.

The lineups are more frugal than flashy (both teams’ tNERDs are below average), so expect runs to be earned via Reds baserunning and Pirates run prevention. Oneil Cruz’s ankle bears watching, though he’s listed probable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

If you want offense, this tilts Phillies: they just set a franchise record with eight homers while clinching a first-round bye, and if the regulars play, the lineup is the show. Name-brand Walker Buehler adds curiosity, but the mound duel isn’t the hook here.

At gNERD 9.54, this sits below today’s average because the pNERD side (2.73) drags; Buehler’s profile is more famous than fearsome right now (xFIP- 120, muted whiffs), even if his Phillies stint opened with a solid debut and a short, scoreless follow-up. Janson Junk is the steadier strike-thrower (xFIP- ~99, high strike%), fresh off a seven-strong-innings outing since returning from an IL stint for ulnar nerve irritation. The team half lifts watchability: Philadelphia’s tNERD (8.57) mirrors an attack that barrels and runs well, and while Trea Turner is expected out, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto are listed probable. If they’re in, that’s plenty of thump and on-base havoc.

Bottom line: tune in for the Phillies’ bats and baserunning against Junk’s strike-filling approach, with Buehler serving as a name to monitor rather than the reason to rearrange plans. And yes, the home side just proved they can light up anyone.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Walker Buehler, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

If you like loud contact and live stakes, this tilts Bronx: the Yankees are tied atop the AL East and Aaron Judge just authored a 50/51-homer flex, which tends to make even routine fly balls feel consequential. gNERD 9.53 sits below today’s average (11.09), but that’s mostly a South Side tax; the entertainment engine here is New York.

Yankees’ tNERD 8.43 is a top-tier profile fueled by elite barrel rate and run creation, while Chicago’s 2.67 drags, which is how you get a mid-pack game despite a marquee market. On the mound, Carlos Rodón’s pNERD 5.07 and xFIP- of 92 suggest above-average run prevention, and he’s handled his former club fine, including 6 IP of 1-run ball last month. Davis Martin’s pNERD 2.88 (xFIP- 111) is lighter, though he’s strung together eight straight starts of ≤3 ER and is making his Yankee Stadium debut, a small intrigue bump. The White Sox just lost Mike Tauchman (knee) and Wikelman Gonzalez (elbow), thinning an already light lineup.

Net: watch for Judge and friends to test Martin early while Rodón works efficiently; the Yankees’ bats are the reason to tune in, not a duel of aces.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

With Corey Seager and Marcus Semien shut down and Wyatt Langford newly shelved, this watch hinges on Tyler Mahle’s comfort at home and whether the Twins can squeeze value from a sturdier bullpen. If you prefer tight run prevention and some defense/baserunning texture over gaudy offense, you’ll get a clean watch here.

At a gNERD of 9.13, this sits a bit below today’s average, and the pitchers’ share (avg pNERD 3.86) explains why: Mahle’s pNERD (3.46) and Ober’s (4.27) are middling. Still, Mahle’s home split is the hook—he’s been nails at Globe Life, allowing very little there this year—while Ober’s xFIP- of 114 and a sizable positive Luck component suggest he’s underperformed skill-wise and could look better than his surface line.

Texas is playing out the string after elimination, but they just snapped an eight-game skid and even got a lift from fresh call-up Billy McKinney, so the vibes aren’t funereal. The team NERDs add watchability in less obvious ways: the Rangers grade well in fielding and baserunning, the Twins bring an above-average bullpen, and both offenses have underwhelmed by Batting Runs—meaning small mistakes and late-inning leverage should decide it more than slug.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Minnesota Twins

Texas Rangers

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers

Go back to top of page

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

A known quantity versus a live audition: Michael Lorenzen’s strike-throwing steadiness meets rookie lefty Mitch Farris, who beat these same Royals in his MLB debut and is trying to prove he belongs. Expect the intrigue to come from the matchup puzzle more than overpowering stuff: Kansas City’s contact-heavy lineup against a new look lefty, and whether the Angels’ defense and bullpen can keep from stepping on rakes.

With a gNERD of 7.47 (below both today’s average and the historic median), this rates as “background TV with upside.” Pitching drives that: Lorenzen’s pNERD is a shade below median, built on competence not whiffs, but he just logged 7.2 efficient innings in his last turn; Farris is a zero-data pNERD because of the tiny sample, yet his debut vs KC was five solid innings and his four-start slate shows a 19:9 K:BB and legit swing-and-miss even in a rough Coors outing.

Team-wise, the Royals’ tNERD edge comes from defense and a sturdier pen, while the Angels’ low tNERD screams volatility: loud barrels, leaky gloves, and late-inning nerves. Recent series color doesn’t change that—LAA just nipped KC behind Yusei Kikuchi and a Taylor Ward blast—but it does hint that Angels power punishes mistakes, even for .500ish clubs. Also: the Angels are staring at another playoff-less year.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals

Mitch Farris, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

If you’re tuning in for a taut pitchers’ duel, this isn’t it. Seattle just clinched its first AL West since 2001 and may treat this as a rotation tune‑up while Cal Raleigh, now the first catcher ever to 60 homers, soaks in ovations.

With the day’s lowest gNERD, the model sees a lopsided watch: Seattle’s above‑average tNERD (5.65) is driven by real bat speed (positive batting runs and barrels), while Colorado drags a bottom‑tier tNERD (-0.92) across offense, baserunning, fielding, and bullpen. Bradley Blalock’s pNERD (1.18) is a red flag for watchability—his xFIP- sits at 134 with minimal whiffs and strike throwing, the kind of profile that turns “pitcher’s game” into “launch angle lab.” On the other side, Seattle hasn’t nailed down a starter—local listings have toggled between Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo—which fits a post‑clinch shuffle and makes run prevention hard to forecast.

So this is background‑TV baseball unless you’re here for star cameos: a scalding Mariners lineup, a champagne hangover lineup card, and a chance to watch Raleigh and Julio collect more loud contact while Colorado tries to keep the ball in the yard.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Colorado Rockies

Seattle Mariners

Bradley Blalock, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on September 24, 2025
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on September 26, 2025