MLB: What to watch on September 26, 2025

• 26 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Top watchability alert: gNERD has Tigers–Red Sox at the peak of today’s slate, and it comes with real stakes. Detroit just pulled even atop the AL Central while Boston missed a clinch, so both sides are playing for October positioning.

Kyle Harrison is the wild card that nudges the pNERD up: the lefty has been sharp since Boston brought him back, carrying a 3.58 ERA with 32 K in 32.2 IP, and he’s listed as the probable starter here, which dovetails with his fast pace and whiff-friendly profile the model likes. Casey Mize is the counter: more strike-thrower than bat-misser, but with a tidy FIP (~3.98) and a strong K/BB (~3.8), he profiles as a quality run suppressor rather than a fireworks show.

tNERD leans Boston thanks to better run prevention pieces: defense that’s graded above average this year and a deeper late-inning mix, a contrast to Detroit’s shakier relief group flagged by the model. Add the playoff context—Detroit’s tie atop the Central, Boston angling to finish the job—and you get a high-skill, high-leverage watch that should move quickly and feel tense, not noisy.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

Kyle Harrison, Boston Red Sox

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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

Rookie mystery vs. a recovering ace is a pretty good hook: the Mets hand Brandon Sproat another turn while Sandy Alcantara tries to look like Sandy again. With a gNERD of 14.13—near the top of today’s slate—this profiles as one of the better watches.

The gNERD is driven by a lively Mets tNERD (barrels, baserunning, and a sturdy bullpen), plus a curiosity premium on Sproat, whose pNERD is 0 only because the model hasn’t seen enough; in his debut he no-hit the Reds for five innings and punched out seven, the kind of bat-missing that plays even in a pitcher’s first road start. Miami’s side is about Alcantara’s stuff versus results: the velocity is back in the upper-90s, but his bat-missing hasn’t fully returned (xFIP- near league average here, with outside analysis noting diminished four-seam whiffs), so the watch is whether his sinker/changeup sequencing finally clicks. Stakes help: the Mets are pushing a wild-card bid while Miami has been mathematically cut out, a contrast that tilts urgency toward New York. Add in a probable Sproat–Alcantara matchup that’s on the board, and you’ve got both narrative and noise.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Brandon Sproat, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Two freshly crowned division winners square off with a fun contrast on the mound: the Dodgers’ bat-misser Emmet Sheehan wrapping a breakout before a postseason bullpen shift, versus the Mariners’ strike-bot George Kirby. Even with the standings settled, Ohtani vs. Raleigh-60 is about as good as September baseball gets.
A gNERD of 13.41 puts this near the top of today’s slate, and the why shows up quickly: Sheehan’s pNERD (8.57) is buoyed by an xFIP- of 84 and real swing-and-miss, while L.A.’s tNERD (7.47) reflects a legit barrel rate and deep bullpen. Seattle’s tNERD (5.78) rides a similar power profile, and today’s TBD is no longer TBD—Kirby gets the ball, and his low walk total (28 in 121 IP) should keep the pace crisp.
Storylines help the watchability pop: the Dodgers just clinched the NL West and are tuning up, and Seattle just ended a 24-year wait atop the AL West while Cal Raleigh joined the 60-homer club; Ohtani brings 54 of his own.
Net-net: if you like a whiffs-vs.-walks duel backed by two thunderous lineups, this is appointment viewing; the model agrees, and so does the calendar.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Seattle Mariners

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

A top-of-the-slate gNERD (13.15) with a clear hook: Shane Bieber’s high pNERD meets Tampa Bay’s track-meet baserunning, with Toronto’s elite defense ready to turn would-be singles into GIFs. And there’s juice: the Jays have clinched and remain neck‑and‑neck for the AL East, owning the tiebreaker over New York.

Bieber’s profile drives the watchability: a pNERD near the top of today’s board, underpinned by a strong xFIP- (73) and brisk pace, plus a credible on-field return since the trade (9 K over 6 IP in his debut; three September starts of 5.2+ IP with sub‑1.05 WHIP). With José Berríos shelved, Toronto needs length, and Bieber’s the most likely provider. Adrian Houser is the counter: decent velo and occasional seven‑inning stamina, but more contact‑forward and volatile, with four 4+ run outings in his last six since joining Tampa Bay.

The tNERD split says both clubs score for entertainment in different ways: the Rays pressure you with MLB’s most steals, while the Jays catchers/outfielders headline 2025’s best team defense, a great stylistic clash for TV. Toronto’s bats just shook off a mini‑freeze with a Varsho grand slam and a Springer add‑on, reinforcing the “good game” signal without leaning on momentum myths.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

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Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

A top-quartile gNERD (12.40) plus a contender chasing the NL’s No. 1 seed makes this worth your eyeballs. Joe Ryan’s strike-throwing efficiency meets Aaron Nola’s variance, with late-inning leverage begging for chaos.

The watchability math fits the story: Phillies’ hefty tNERD (8.56) comes from real on-field juice — power and plus baserunning — while Minnesota’s bullpen (big positive in tNERD) tilts the endgame if it’s tight. Ryan’s above-average pNERD (5.84) is driven by a strong xFIP- and strike rate, and he hits this one having set a career-high in innings and making his 30th start, the kind of durable arc that usually keeps the ball in interesting places. Nola’s pNERD sits near average (5.32), but the season line has been rough, with a recent five-start run that includes a scoreless outing against the Mets and a four-run slip in Arizona — the volatility that spikes watchability. Add in Phillies’ seeding chase, Trea Turner’s hamstring uncertainty, and Byron Buxton showing up hot after a two-homer day, and you’ve got stakes, star power, and swing decisions to spare. Historically, this gNERD sits near the 75th percentile; for today’s slate, it’s comfortably above average.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Playoff stakes plus a strength-on-strength clash make this one easy to click: a thunderous Yankees lineup trying to solve lefty Trevor Rogers, who just held them to one hit over six scoreless last week. With a gNERD of 12.13—above today’s slate average and just over the historic 75th percentile—the model and the moment both say “watch.”

Rogers’ pNERD (7.90) is the engine here, fueled by an xFIP- of 84—roughly 16% better than league average—and a recent run that includes taking a no-hit bid into the sixth against these same Yankees; it was his 15th straight start allowing two or fewer runs. The counterweight is New York’s meaty tNERD (8.46), headlined by elite barrel rates and an offense propped up by Aaron Judge, who’s not only pacing the averages but just set the AL record for intentional walks, a tidy proxy for how pitchers feel about seeing him. Will Warren’s pNERD (4.95) lags; his xFIP- (94) is modestly better than average, but New York is winless in his September starts, with defense and a big first inning in Boston doing him no favors. Add that the Yankees enter tied atop the AL East—and chasing a tiebreaker they don’t own—and you get quality plus consequence.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions and the NERD scores.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 5:10p

Summary

A gNERD of 11.85 with Milwaukee’s run-prevention-and-speed machine against a Reds team clawing for a Wild Card spot makes this one easy to queue up. Quinn Priester’s been a vibes cheat code — Milwaukee has won the last 19 games he’s appeared in — while Cincinnati brings the urgency.

Milwaukee’s hefty tNERD edge (9.73 to 3.37) tracks with what you’ll see: elite defense and pressure on the bases (hello, Brice Turang), plus a bullpen that shortens games, which together raise the floor for watchability even when the bats aren’t loud. Priester pairs a shiny ERA with a more modest FIP (3.25 vs. 4.08), but the recent command gains and groundball tilt have held up; if he keeps filling the zone, Brewers gloves and legs do the rest. On the other side, Zack Littell is precision over power — minuscule walks, but a long-ball profile that followed him to Cincinnati after leading MLB in homers allowed pre-trade; that volatility is the drama. The Reds’ stakes are real, and they arrive dinged (Nick Lodolo’s groin scare), so Littell’s margin matters. Relative to today’s slate (gNERDs 4.82–14.84, avg 10.69), this sits comfortably above average, boosted by Priester’s pNERD (6.49) and Milwaukee’s tNERD engine.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers

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Kansas City Royals @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

If you like “rookie with polish vs. rookie with sizzle,” this one fits: gNERD 11.34 sits above today’s average, and it pairs Kansas City lefty Noah Cameron with the A’s live-armed Luis Morales in the cozy confines of Sutter Health Park. It’s also a showcase of young bats on both sides rather than standings angst, which is a fine way to spend nine innings.

Cameron’s pNERD (5.87) and near-league-average xFIP- (98) signal competence over spectacle, but his quick pace and age bump add watchability, especially against an Oakland lineup graded high by tNERD for youth and pop. Kansas City’s tNERD is dragged down by light bats and baserunning, but their gloves and bullpen help keep games crisp; Bobby Witt Jr. remains the headliner after a four-hit night earlier today, with Vinnie Pasquantino providing lefty thump. Morales—now listed as the probable—brings upper-90s heat and 38 K in 44 MLB innings, the sort of “show me the slider” stuff models haven’t fully priced yet. The A’s setting adds novelty, too, with West Sacramento serving as their temporary home. Oh, and keep an eye on Oakland’s star rookies: Nick Kurtz’s power and Jacob Wilson’s batting-title buzz have been real stories all season.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Athletics

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Two star names, mid-pack pNERDs, and high stakes: Arizona’s last-gasp chase runs into San Diego’s late‑inning machine. With a gNERD of 10.98—just above today’s average and near the historic middle—you’re here for leverage, not a strikeout clinic. Arizona still needs wins, while San Diego already punched its postseason ticket, and that urgency plus contrasting strengths nudges watchability up. Zac Gallen vs. Yu Darvish is confirmed, and the subplot is Darvish’s season that began in July against these same D‑backs; since then, his second‑half indicators (xFIP ~4.16) have improved, though numbers jump with men on, a spot the D‑backs’ plus baserunning (team BsR +6.5) can exploit. Gallen’s 2025 skill line has sat roughly average (xFIP- ~98; FIP in the mid‑4s), but he’s mixed in recent quality and works quicker than Darvish, a subtle rhythm contrast you’ll feel. The Padres’ offense is short a Bogaerts, but their deep bullpen (Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejón) has been the feature that shortens games. Add Corbin Carroll’s 30‑30 spark and the NL wild‑card context, and this profiles as tense, late-inning entertainment more than a pitcher’s duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

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Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

Playoff leverage meets a pitcher-development lab: Cleveland turns to Slade Cecconi in a dead-heat division race, while Jack Leiter arrives with premium velocity and just enough chaos to keep every pitch interesting. If you like gloves, bullpens, and high-stakes reps for young arms, this is your channel-flip deterrent.

The gNERD sits at 10.86, a tick above today’s average, because team components do the heavy lifting: Cleveland’s strong gloves and bullpen (tNERD 7.43) pair well with Texas’s own defense/basestealing profile (tNERD 5.37). On the mound, the pNERD duo is middling but contrasting: Cecconi’s underlying run prevention is better (xFIP- 97) than Leiter’s (111), while Leiter brings 97 mph heat and prospect pedigree for swing-and-miss potential even if the strikes wander. Cleveland’s stakes are real—they’re tied atop the AL Central and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker—so every inning is charged, and Texas arrives scuffling after a rough stretch, adding a hint of volatility without any promise of continuation. Cecconi’s path here matters too: acquired from Arizona and folded into the rotation in May, he’s been a development project with six-pitch optionality that fits Cleveland’s pitching lab ethos. All told, above-average watchability from defense, bullpen bite, and playoff pressure, even if the bats lag behind.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Texas Rangers

Cleveland Guardians

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

A rivalry game with above-average watchability, but it’s the uniforms and outfield ivy doing the heavy lifting—not the mound duel. The gNERD (10.86) sits just north of today’s average, driven by the Cubs’ high-tNERD profile rather than ace-on-ace intrigue.

With Miles Mikolas listed for St. Louis and Chicago still at TBD, the pNERD side is light; Mikolas’ low-whiff profile and poor xFIP- component in our model (117; pNERD 1.75) hint at balls in play over punchouts, while an unnamed Cubs starter keeps their pNERD at zero. What makes this watchable is Chicago’s team shape: top-tier defense (second-best WHIP, third in fielding percentage) and real throttle on the bases (third in steals), paired with top-10 run production and slug. St. Louis brings excellent gloves and a sturdy pen per tNERD inputs, but the Cards’ bats and barrels lag, making their path more about catching the ball and shortening the game. The contrast—Cubs’ speed/slug/defense versus Cards’ gloves/relief—fits the rivalry’s classic texture at Wrigley, and that’s why the gNERD lands above the day’s mean even with a thin pitching headliner.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

This is a “bring your own intrigue” watch: league-average Mitch Keller versus a familiar foe in Joey Wentz, with the edge tilting toward Pittsburgh’s gloves and bullpen rather than pure bat-missing. Atlanta adds atmosphere—Wentz facing his former club and a looming Charlie Morton farewell—but the baseball itself grades as mid-tier.

gNERD lands at 7.37, below today’s average, because both clubs’ tNERDs are light: Pittsburgh’s bats have bled runs while the defense and a sturdy bullpen are the draw; Atlanta’s contact quality is fine, but baserunning and relief work drag. Keller’s profile fits the billing: xFIP- right at 100 with average velo and tempo, more strikes than whiffs, i.e., competence over fireworks. Wentz trails on run estimators (xFIP- 107) and works slower, though he does carry some “positive luck,” which NERD rightly treats as regression bait rather than a trend to trust. Pittsburgh also gets a quiet lift from Atlanta’s injury-thinned core (Austin Riley, Sean Murphy among the outs), which dovetails with the Braves’ bullpen softness.

If you’re prioritizing watchability, cue this up for: a tidy Keller start, the Pirates’ bullpen as main event, and the side-story of Wentz versus his old room. Otherwise, plenty of louder options sit above this on today’s slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Atlanta Braves

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

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Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

If you’re triaging screens, this is a stakes-over-stuff watch: Houston needs wins to keep its wild-card hopes viable, while the Angels roll out Kyle Hendricks amid retirement chatter he’s publicly waved off. gNERD sits at 6.65—below today’s average—so the hook is context and contrast more than pure pitcher porn.

Houston’s side is the better watchability draw (tNERD 5.07) thanks to elite gloves and a sturdy bullpen, and Jason Alexander’s pNERD (4.65) is buoyed by tempo and recent competence: he stacked six scoreless vs. Miami and then one-hit the Yankees through six, a nice match with his league-average-ish xFIP profile. The foil is Hendricks (pNERD 1.97): command-forward, low whiffs, inflated xFIP, but he just spun seven shutout in his 300th career start, reminding everyone the contact-manager act can still land.

Angels tNERD (1.61) drags because of poor defense and a shaky pen, but their bats carry some theater: Mike Trout just crossed 400 homers, and Taylor Ward has been mashing, up to 36 on the year. Net: below-average gNERD historically and for today, yet playoff implications, an Alexander mini-heater, and a possibly-last look at Hendricks nudge this into worthy secondary-screen territory.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels

Jason Alexander, Houston Astros

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago White Sox @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Prospect intrigue meets rebuild reality: Cade Cavalli’s stuff gives this matchup a pulse, but the bats and gloves won’t do much CPR. With a gNERD of 5.54—near the low end both for today and historically—this profiles as background viewing unless Cavalli pops.

The team side drags: both clubs grade poorly on offense and defense by tNERD (CWS 2.68, WSH 0.77), so you’re mostly here for the mound. Cavalli’s above-average pNERD (6.25) is fueled by real juice—plus velocity (modeling at ~97 mph) and league-average underlying run prevention (xFIP- 99), and he’s flashed it lately with five scoreless against the Mets and six strikeouts versus Miami. Yoendrys Gómez (pNERD 1.37) is the counter: below-average swing-and-miss and a rough xFIP- (119), and he’s coming off 5⅓ innings of three-run ball against San Diego. The broader stage doesn’t demand your attention—these are sub-.500 clubs by record—but it gives Cavalli a clean showcase. If you sample selectively, tune in for Cavalli’s early innings and treat the rest as a curiosity of bullpen variance and light bats; if you’re hunting a feature game, keep scrolling.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Washington Nationals

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

This gNERD sits on the floor (4.82), but there are two watchable hooks: the Giants, freshly eliminated, are auditioning rookie Trevor McDonald, and Germán Márquez is coming off his best recent turn. If you’re triaging screens, this is a “prospect look and quiet-park vibes” game, not a fireworks show.

The numbers explain the low score: average team NERD is 1.52, dragged down by Colorado’s tNERD (-0.81) built on severe deficits in batting, baserunning, fielding and bullpen runs, and San Francisco’s only modest tNERD (3.85). That aligns with the broader story of a historically rough Rockies season, while the Giants arrive post-elimination. McDonald, recalled this month, just logged six-plus innings of one-run ball in his first MLB start against the Dodgers and gets the ball again here; if you’re scouting, that’s the reason to tune in. Márquez’s pNERD (1.61) mirrors iffy underlying swing-and-miss and xFIP, though he did spin 7 IP with five strikeouts last time out. Oracle Park suppresses home runs, so run-scoring volatility should be muted, which dovetails with today’s lower watchability. In short: check in early for McDonald’s second look and stay if Márquez’s slider has bite; otherwise, your remote won’t mind if you graze elsewhere.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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