MLB: What to watch on September 27, 2025

• 27 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Two October-bound heavyweights, each freshly crowned in their divisions, hand the ball to a top-shelf arm: Seattle’s splitter-savant Logan Gilbert versus L.A.’s high-octane Tyler Glasnow in a postseason tune‑up that still has teeth. The matchup earns a top-of-the-slate gNERD because it combines elite swing‑and‑miss with lineups that punish mistakes.

Gilbert’s pNERD (10.34) is carrying the watchability here: a 69 xFIP- and big whiff rates, driven by a splitter that’s been one of MLB’s nastiest offerings and a zone‑pounding approach; he’s kept traffic minimal all month (1.03 WHIP on the season, strong September lines). Glasnow’s pNERD is more modest (5.25), but the ingredients are there—mid‑90s heat, a 90 xFIP-, and recent strikeout heft—including 11 Ks across seven innings earlier this month, with this start framed as his final regular-season shakedown before October. Offenses add sizzle: the Dodgers’ barrels and run creation boost a healthy tNERD, while Seattle brings real thump even if the gloves lag. The stakes are soft but not sleepy: the Dodgers have clinched the NL West and are locked into the No. 3 seed, and the Mariners just snapped a 24‑year AL West drought behind Cal Raleigh’s 60‑homer fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Seattle Mariners

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

Playoff stakes plus stuff: the Mets are tied for the last NL wild-card and lose the tiebreaker, so every pitch matters — and Miami’s rolling out Eury Pérez to play spoiler.
Clay Holmes — confirmed to start — versus a returning upper-90s strikeout machine is the kind of contrast that nudges this into the “must-sample” tier.

With a gNERD of 13.67, this sits near the top of today’s slate, driven by a big Mets tNERD (11.74) built on barrels and sneaky baserunning, while Miami’s lower tNERD and shaky bullpen hint at late-inning wobble. Pérez brings the higher pNERD (7.63): bat-missing, youth-boosted velo and enough strike-throwing to let the heat play, and he’s fresh off a 9-K tune-up in four innings last week. Holmes’ pNERD (2.91) says league-average underlying run prevention with light whiffs, but his reinvention as a bulk starter has held up volume-wise.

Add the real-world stakes — the Mets just dropped the opener and now need help as well as wins — and this becomes a clean watch: can New York’s contact-quality and baserunning pressure crack Pérez before Miami’s bullpen enters, or does Pérez’s raw stuff trump the model?

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

A rookie with a plus changeup and a freshly clinched Fenway crowd is a tidy recipe for watchability. gNERD 12.90 sits above both today’s average and the historic 75th percentile, and Connelly Early’s emergence is the hook.
Boston just punched its postseason ticket on a walk-off, their 12th of the year, so consider this an Early viewing party with October vibes baked in.

Early has fanned 22 in 14.1 MLB innings with just three walks and zero homers — roughly a 37% K rate — after an 11‑strikeout debut, and scouting notes say the changeup is the out pitch; if you’re here for pNERD, he’s your intrigue even if the model hasn’t caught up yet. Boston’s tNERD heft comes from run prevention: top‑shelf defense, aggressive baserunning, and a bullpen that grades well by FanGraphs entering the year — a helpful complement if Early only turns the lineup twice. Detroit’s side is officially TBD, and their bullpen has been dinged by injuries, which could matter late.

Net: a live‑armed rookie against a high‑action Red Sox club (elite fielding, real pen) and a Tigers lineup that barrels the ball but leans on a shakier relief corps. That blend — plus the rookie intrigue — earns the high gNERD without any sugar rush from “momentum.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

Former Phillie Mick Abel returns in a new hat to face Ranger Suárez and a Phillies lineup that runs well and hits loud. With a gNERD of 12.61—top-quartile historically and near the top of the slate—this is a worthy channel-stopper.

The pNERD duel is balanced but contrasting: Suárez’s above-average xFIP- (88) and solid strike-throwing hint at tidy run prevention, and he’s flashed recent bat-missing (12 Ks vs. the Mets), while Abel brings 96 with a plus breaking ball and the “can he locate it here?” subplot. The former-teammate angle adds spice after the deadline deal that sent Jhoan Duran to Philly and Abel the other way.

Philadelphia’s strong tNERD (8.61) is backed by +72.9 Batting Runs and legitimately entertaining baserunning—they’ve been a top-five club by FanGraphs’ BsR this season—so balls in play tend to matter. Minnesota’s offense/defense lag, but the bullpen (+51.1 Runs) can keep things interesting if Abel exits with a lead.

The Phillies just banked the opener behind an Aaron Nola gem and are still jockeying for postseason positioning, so the atmosphere should feel playoff-adjacent. If Abel lands enough strikes against his old club, this can swing from meticulous (Suárez) to mayhem (Abel) in a hurry.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies

Mick Abel, Minnesota Twins

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A 100-mph rookie taking aim at a name-brand strikeout machine trying to finish strong is plenty of reason to tune in. gNERD 12.59 puts this in the top quartile historically and well above today’s average, so the watchability math agrees.

Bubba Chandler brings sizzle and substance: triple-digit heat, a recent outing averaging 99.2 mph with nine 100+ heaters, and enough whiff to carry a perfect game into the sixth; he even touched 100.6 in D.C. and snagged a debut save, which pairs beautifully with his elite xFIP- (78) and top-end velocity in the model. Spencer Strider’s pNERD is more modest, but he’s shown late-season recalibration—more curves/changeups, five scoreless and 14 whiffs in Detroit—which keeps the K-upside intact even if his xFIP- sits near league average. The team side tilts oddly: Pittsburgh’s bats grade poorly, but the bullpen is a plus, while Atlanta’s lineup is dinged (Albies done with a hamate fracture; Riley and Murphy also shelved) and the club is already eliminated, shifting the focus to evaluation and Strider’s feel. Still, Atlanta offers live-wire pieces—Michael Harris II’s 20–20 and Drake Baldwin’s quietly productive rookie year—so there’s enough juice around the edges if Chandler vs. Strider isn’t.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Atlanta Braves

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

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Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:15p

Summary

Playoff leverage plus a pacey lefty makes this one worth your eyeballs: Joey Cantillo’s above-average run estimators and quick tempo meet two elite defenses and bullpens in a game likely decided on the margins. Texas is shorthanded without Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but their gloves and relief corps keep the door open for sneaky late drama.

With a gNERD of 12.12, this sits in the top quartile of historical games and near the upper tier of today’s slate, powered by Cleveland’s stronger tNERD (7.48) and a credible pNERD for Cantillo (6.43). The Guardians’ watchability is rooted in run prevention: a top bullpen-and-glove profile in our inputs, while Texas counters with plus fielding and sneaky baserunning despite below-average bats. Cantillo’s xFIP- around 90 suggests better-than-league skill, and he works briskly, which helps the game flow. On the other side, Texas lists TBD; reports point to either newly acquired Merrill Kelly (command, depth) or a look at 22-year-old Jose Corniell (stuff, uncertainty)—either path adds curiosity.

Layer on real stakes: Cleveland is neck-and-neck atop the AL Central with the tiebreaker and a shrinking magic number, so every plate appearance matters. No need to chase “momentum,” but the leverage is real—and that’s prime watchability.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Texas Rangers

Cleveland Guardians

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

High-stakes AL East baseball meets prospect intrigue: Toronto hands the ball to rookie Trey Yesavage fresh off a franchise-record 9-K debut against these Rays, while Tampa counters with a high-octane Joe Boyle. A gNERD of 12.07 lands in today’s upper tier, and the race context plus genuine whiff upside makes this one worth your eyeballs. Toronto’s situation is urgent, but the pitching shapes the watchability: Boyle’s pNERD (5.71) rides elite velocity and a shaky strike%—fun volatility—and he just spun six scoreless versus the Jays, so there’s déjà vu risk for Toronto’s bats. Yesavage’s pNERD is 0 only because the sample’s tiny; the stuff isn’t, with 19 whiffs and a splitter that already plays in MLB. The team components back it up: Toronto’s tNERD is buoyed by real offense and plus fielding, while Tampa counters with disruptive baserunning and a sturdy bullpen, the latter a classic “late chaos” accelerant. Meanwhile, it’s confirmed: it’s Boyle vs. Yesavage, so we’re not bait-and-switched by an opener. Net: a whiffs-and-weights matchup—big arms, one known erratic, one new and nasty—layered atop meaningful standings pressure; not perfect, but decisively more watchable than your median slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:15p

Summary

Playoff stakes meet stylistic contrast: a win‑hungry Reds club chasing the final NL spot runs into a clinched Brewers team that wins with speed, gloves, and a deep pen. It’s Abbott’s polish versus the intrigue of Gasser’s post–Tommy John cameo, making this a higher‑ceiling watch than your average late‑September tilt.

Cincinnati’s path is simple: keep winning, and the tiebreakers do them favors in the wild‑card tangle, while Milwaukee has the division wrapped and is nudging for the top NL seed. Andrew Abbott brings All‑Star cred and a pNERD right around today’s average, with underlying indicators closer to steady than splashy; earlier this summer he paired elite run prevention with a mid‑3s FIP, and he generally works briskly. Across the way is Robert Gasser, freshly returned from TJ and likely on a short leash after a three‑inning, two‑run season debut; the novelty factor is real, even if the data isn’t. The Brewers elevate the watchability floor with elite baserunning (yes, nine‑steal games happened) and a bullpen that still profiles as a late‑inning asset. NERD agrees: a gNERD of 11.55 sits above today’s slate average, powered by Milwaukee’s strong tNERD and Cincinnati’s run‑game chaos, even if the Reds’ contact quality lags.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Come for the Cubs’ elite tNERD (10.17) and a lineup currently launching fireworks, stay to see if Jameson Taillon’s command can outduel Michael McGreevy’s crafty, contact-first approach. Chicago’s pushing for postseason positioning and just bludgeoned St. Louis 12-1 while featuring a 30–30 Pete Crow-Armstrong and multiple 30-HR bats, so the backdrop is loud even if the pNERDs are modest.

At 11.27, this gNERD sits above both the historical median (10.10) and today’s average (10.78), driven by a sharp contrast: the Cubs grade as watchable almost everywhere (barrels, baserunning, defense), while the Cards lean on gloves and bullpen with thinner bats. McGreevy’s more “pitchability than punch”—xFIP- 103 with a very low SwStr%—but he’s shown recent shape with seven scoreless frames built on sinker/sweeper mix and sequencing. Taillon’s profile (xFIP- 106, plus strike%) and brisk pace make for quick innings when he’s spotting; he tossed seven innings of one-run ball in his last turn.

Storylines help: Chicago’s surging offense and home-field stakes heighten every plate appearance, while St. Louis is auditioning future pieces with Masyn Winn shut down and Willson Contreras also done for the year. The result is a rivalry game where the position players carry the spectacle and any pitcher whiffs are a bonus.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

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Kansas City Royals @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

A gNERD 10.5 in a bandbox—Sutter Health Park has played as MLB’s second‑most hitter‑friendly yard—gets a tailwind if the A’s indeed start 22‑year‑old Luis Morales and his 97 mph looks. If they pivot to Mitch Spence (some outlets have it undecided/Spence), the watchability dips a tick but the setting and the A’s rookie bats still keep you parked.

Morales’ pNERD (5.86) is velocity/age-driven, but the xFIP- (108) says “raw, not ruthless,” while Wacha’s lower pNERD (3.44) and similar xFIP- (109) hint at more contact than whiffs; that’s fine entertainment in a run‑jetstream. The team split is the hook: the Athletics’ tNERD (7.26) rides real bats and youth even as the glove/pen wobble, whereas Kansas City’s tNERD (4.43) leans on defense and a steadier bullpen to prop up light bats. Add in the A’s fun rookie core (Nick Kurtz’s power, Jacob Wilson’s contact) and the park factor, and you’ve got swing‑happy, leverage‑heavy innings. The Royals arrive at .500 and, fresh off a 4–3 walk‑off loss to these same A’s, still have a winning record to chase—stakes that help a middling‑plus gNERD play above its weight relative to both the historic median (≈10.1) and today’s slate average (≈10.8).

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Athletics

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Luis Morales, Athletics

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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

High stakes meet high octane: the AL East–tied Yankees hand the ball to 24-year-old fireballer Cam Schlittler, while Baltimore counters with contact-first veteran Tomoyuki Sugano and hopes the short porch doesn’t turn singles into souvenirs. With Toronto holding the tiebreaker, New York still needs style and substance, which usually arrives when Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are detonating baseballs.

The gNERD sits at 10.47—slightly above the historical median but middle of today’s slate—because this is mostly a Yankees-driven watch: their top-tier tNERD (8.39) rides elite barrel rate and batting runs, while Baltimore’s modest tNERD (3.00) brings some barrels but shaky defense and a thin pen. Schlittler’s pNERD (8.07) is the hook: 98 mph velocity, a strong strike% and a tidy xFIP- (90) hint at miss-bat, TV-friendly stuff, and he’s forced his way into meaningful October consideration after injuries opened the door. Sugano’s pNERD (1.48) and xFIP- (112) suggest more contact than whiffs, and recent homer leakage is a rough fit against Judge/Stanton and MLB’s best barrel machine. If you’re skimming for one game with playoff leverage, upper-90s heat, and a lineup that punishes mistakes, this is your channel-surfing stopper.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

Playoff stakes, meet mid-tier stuff: San Diego’s push to host a wild-card set keeps this one tense even if the starters aren’t the headline. Arizona’s been bounced, but the Padres still have something to chase, which perks up a gNERD that otherwise leans on team quality over ace wattage.

At 9.52, the game sits a hair below today’s average, with most of the juice coming from San Diego’s tNERD—fueled by a bullpen that’s been a strength and lately slammed doors with Mason Miller heat—versus Arizona’s better bats, gloves, and baserunning but wobbly relief. Michael King isn’t overpowering by the metrics, but since returning from the IL he’s stabilized and just logged five-plus scoreless in his last road turn, a decent fit for a Padres staff that wins on run prevention more than punchouts. Eduardo Rodríguez has actually been the livelier subplot: four wins in five with multiple scoreless outings, though a recent five-run hiccup reminds you why his pNERD trails the field. ESPN has this lined up as Rodríguez vs. King, which tracks with both teams’ late-season plans.

Net: not a showpiece, but the Padres’ bullpen edge and postseason angle make it a solid watch, especially if E‑Rod’s changeup shows up early.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Playoff pressure meets prospect theater: Houston hands a must-have start to rising righty AJ Blubaugh against the Angels’ 21-year-old Caden Dana and Mike Trout’s spoiler swing. The gNERD says mid-tier, but the stakes, a polished rookie, and Trout’s bat nudge this up the queue.

At 8.75 gNERD this sits below today’s slate average (10.78), yet Blubaugh’s 7.49 pNERD and 89 xFIP- flag real bat-missing skill, while Dana’s 3.57 pNERD and 116 xFIP- point to on-the-job training. Houston’s strong gloves and bullpen (both positive in our inputs) contrast with an Angels club that barrels the ball but pairs it with shaky defense and a leaky pen, a recipe for either early Astros control or late-innings entropy. Blubaugh has kept traffic scarce all month (0.82 WHIP in limited MLB work), and he’s officially listed as today’s probable, as is Dana.

Storyline fuel: Trout homered twice in the opener to ding Houston’s thinning wild-card hopes, and the Astros still need help on the out-of-town board; monitor Yordan Alvarez’s ankle when lineups post.

Translation: a below-average gNERD today, but rookie intrigue plus playoff jeopardy make it plenty watchable if you enjoy strikeouts, loud contact, and the possibility of late chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels

AJ Blubaugh, Houston Astros

Caden Dana, Los Angeles Angels

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

If you tune in, it’s for Justin Verlander’s late-career calibration—he’s finally looked sharp again—and to see if Colorado can solve a ballpark that’s been their personal labyrinth. Everything else screams “second screen.”

With a gNERD of 4.86—well below the historical median and near today’s floor—this rates as a low-watchability tilt, dragged down by a meager average tNERD (1.40) and especially the Rockies’ negative team profile. Kyle Freeland’s pNERD (4.16) is buoyed by strikes but not excitement: near-average xFIP-, very low whiffs, and modest velocity rarely produce fireworks. Verlander’s season-long pNERD (2.75) is undercut by a middling xFIP-, but the storyline is better than the stat line: after a winless slog, he’s run off a strong late stretch and even says he wants to keep pitching at 43. Colorado, meanwhile, has been a road wreck and especially snakebit at Oracle Park, going 6-30 there since 2021. If you must prioritize, watch for Verlander’s feel—has the fix stuck?—and whether the Rockies can steal a rare win in this yard.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

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Chicago White Sox @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Today’s low man on the gNERD totem pole (4.29) still holds some late‑season chaos potential. Jake Irvin’s been dinger‑prone, and these two just played a 10–9 carnival with six Washington homers and four Nats errors.
gNERD is weighed down by bottom‑tier team NERDs and subpar pNERDs; both starters sit in the contact zone (xFIP-: Burke 116, Irvin 117; tiny SwStr%), so you’re watching for balls in play more than whiffs. The twist: Irvin has coughed up 36 homers, among MLB’s highest totals, and Chicago’s kids can run into one—Colson Montgomery supplied last night’s go‑ahead blast. Fielding and relief add volatility: Washington’s defense has been leaky and the bullpen just cracked in the ninth, while Chicago’s pen grades out closer to competent here. If you prioritize crisp run prevention and whiff artistry, skip it; if you enjoy errors, loud fly balls, and prospects learning in public, queue it up, with the caveat that there are no playoff stakes attached.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Washington Nationals

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

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