MLB: What to watch on September 28, 2025

• 28 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 12:10p

Summary

The watchability math and the stakes agree: a gNERD of 17.42 tops today’s slate, and the Mets need a win plus a Reds loss to keep playing. It’s Sean Manaea’s quick-working, xFIP-forward profile (xFIP- 80, 16.0s pace) against Edward Cabrera’s electricity, including the party trick of a 96.5 mph changeup. New York’s tNERD (11.82) is buoyed by elite barrels, baserunning, and a trustworthy pen, and Pete Alonso just underlined the point with a double and a homer to keep this finale relevant. Miami’s lower tNERD is largely bullpen drag, but Cabrera’s upper-90s heat and whiff-y change add fun chaos, especially as he ramps back up after a recent IL stint. Manaea’s pNERD (9.92) suggests above-average underlying run prevention even as the Mets have flirted with a piggyback plan; expect Carlos Mendoza to have David Peterson ready if the pitch count pops. If New York leads late, note that the bullpen just locked down a shutout; if they trail, the added subplot is that this could be Alonso’s last regular-season game in Queens colors, which only heightens the watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

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Kansas City Royals @ Athletics, 12:05p

Summary

This one rides the ace: a gNERD of 14.59 is mostly a Cole Ragans ticket, with elite underlying run prevention and a fresh 10-K tune-up making Kansas City the watch side. Oakland counters with rookie lefty Brady Basso in homer‑friendly West Sacramento—volatility plus novelty in a park that tends to carry.

At this gNERD, we’re near the 95th percentile historically and among today’s top games; the separator is Ragans’ pNERD (12.41), well above the usual high bar. After a midseason rotator‑cuff pause, his skill indicators stayed sharp (xERA around 2.6, FIP about 2.2), and he just punched out 10 in five innings, the kind of bat‑missing profile that props up watchability even if the run prevention wobbled at times.

Basso brings a different flavor: the A’s have used him in relief down the stretch, and the scouting report reads low‑90s fastball with a Zito‑style, bat‑dropping curve; fun, but with limited starter track record.

Context helps: the Royals can seal a winning season with a finale win, while the A’s are closing their first Sacramento year in a small Triple‑A yard that plays lively in heat and at night. Expect KC’s top arm versus an A’s lineup that scores but leaks runs late, a mix that explains why this gNERD sits where it does.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Athletics

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

Brady Basso, Athletics

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 12:05p

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez has pitched like a quiet ace, and he gets an extra spark today: Trea Turner returns while Kyle Schwarber keeps stalking Ryan Howard’s franchise HR mark. With a gNERD of 12.95—well above today’s average—this profiles as a Sánchez showcase with some bonus storylines.

Sánchez’s underlying line is the draw: triple-slash run prevention built on a sub-3.00 FIP and xFIP with strong strike-throwing and few homers allowed, the kind of profile that supports his top-tier pNERD. Opposite him, Simeon Woods Richardson’s contact quality indicators and run estimators skew the other way (FIP in the mid-4s, xFIP around five), so the mound matchup tilts hard toward Philadelphia. Team-wise, the Phillies’ tNERD pops because they pair plus bats and baserunning with watchable production, and they’ve already locked the NL’s No. 2 seed—meaning today is less about stakes and more about rhythm. The Twins’ case rests on a solid bullpen and the possibility they spoil a party; they blanked Philly yesterday behind newly acquired ex-Phils prospect Mick Abel, so there’s a little fresh-trade spice in the air. If you’re triaging screens, cue this for Sánchez’s tune-up and the chance at some late-season star turns from Turner and Schwarber.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

AL East stakes meet stylistic contrast: Kevin Gausman tries to pitch Toronto to the division while Tampa counters with rookie lefty Ian Seymour, who recently muzzled these same Jays. With a gNERD of 12.72—well above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile—this grades as a clear watch.

Toronto can clinch the division with a win (they hold the tiebreaker over New York), which adds real bite to every pitch. The matchup quality holds up: the average pNERD is 6.09, with Seymour at 6.37 (xFIP- 93, quicker tempo) and Gausman at 5.81 (xFIP- 91, more deliberate), so both sit above today’s pitching baseline. Gausman also arrives off a two-hit, 100-pitch complete-game shutout of the Astros, while Seymour spun seven innings of one-run (unearned) ball against Toronto on September 17.

Team-wise, Toronto’s 6.73 tNERD leans on plus offense and gloves (+84.4 Batting Runs, +37.8 Fielding Runs), while Tampa’s 6.53 tNERD blends elite speed (+12.8 Baserunning Runs) with a sturdier bullpen and shakier defense. That contrast—Jays’ contact/defense versus Rays’ running game and relief—keeps the late innings volatile if Toronto doesn’t build a cushion early. Starters are slated as Seymour vs. Gausman, so plan for splitter-heavy whiffs against tempo-friendly craft.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox, 12:05p

Summary

Both teams are already October-bound, but Detroit’s seed is still in play—and the likely matchup has shifted to Tarik Skubal vs. Lucas Giolito rather than the earlier Paddack/TBD listing. If it’s Skubal-Giolito at Fenway, bump this up your queue.

The gNERD sits at 12.10, a top-quartile score historically and above today’s average, and it’s driven more by the team side than the mound uncertainty: Boston’s tNERD pops thanks to elite run prevention (defense and a high-performing bullpen), while Detroit brings barrels and baserunning heat with a shakier pen—exactly the kind of stylistic contrast that keeps a game lively late. The pNERD is only middling on paper (Paddack 3.47, TBD 0), but that’s outdated context; Detroit shifted Paddack to the bullpen earlier this month. If Skubal goes, you’re upgrading to an ace who’s spent the year missing bats at a top-tier clip with FIP-level dominance; Giolito has been a credible rebound for Boston. Layer in that the Tigers clinched but can still jockey for seeding while the Red Sox are locked in, and you get a watch that leans on smart defense vs. barrel-and-bags offense—and possibly a marquee starter showcase if lineups hold.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox

Chris Paddack, Detroit Tigers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 12:10p

Summary

A win clinches the Reds a wild card, but they have to get it against Freddy Peralta, who just crossed 200 strikeouts for the third straight year. Milwaukee already locked the NL’s top seed, yet their track-team baserunning and sharpened late innings mean this won’t feel like a formality.

With gNERD 11.23 sitting above today’s average, the appeal leans Brewers: a big tNERD 9.61 built on elite baserunning (+2.18) and a strong bullpen (+1.11) versus a Reds tNERD of 3.37 weighed down by thin contact quality. That speed isn’t theoretical—Milwaukee set a franchise record with nine steals this year—and it tends to keep even low-contact innings lively.

On the mound it’s Brady Singer vs. Peralta, confirmed for the finale. Peralta’s pNERD 5.25 (xFIP- 93) plus 200+ Ks signal real bat-missing theater; Singer’s 4.23 pNERD and neutral xFIP- point to contact management, but he works quickly, which helps the watchability meter even if whiffs are modest.

Add context: Cincinnati enters tied for the last NL spot but holds the tiebreaker, so a win gets them in, while Milwaukee’s bullpen has shifted to Abner Uribe closing and remains no picnic late. Stakes plus contrast-y styles make this a worthy click.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

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Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians, 12:10p

Summary

Pitching and defense are the draw: Cleveland leans on an elite run-prevention machine while Texas brings slick leather and, possibly, Patrick Corbin’s veteran variance. With a gNERD of 10.88—slightly above today’s average and a hair over the historical median—this profiles as a quietly worthwhile watch rather than a fireworks show.

The likely matchup is Joey Cantillo vs. Patrick Corbin, with multiple outlets listing the lefties; Cantillo offers bat-missing upside (~10 K/9 this season), while Corbin’s recent highs include eight scoreless with eight Ks, even if his underlying pNERD (4.03) says temper expectations. Cleveland’s tNERD (7.60) is fueled by a top-shelf bullpen and defense, and the Guardians’ youth/athleticism adds pace and chaos—in a good way. Texas’s tNERD (5.13) is buoyed by plus baserunning and elite team defense, but the bats and barrels lag, and injuries to core hitters have muted the lineup’s ceiling. If you’re here for process over pyrotechnics, this is your lane: Cantillo’s extension/changeup play, Corbin’s cutter-and-command makeover, and two sturdy bullpens should keep run expectancy modest and leverage high late. Slugfest seekers can pass; connoisseurs of run prevention, tune in.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Texas Rangers

Cleveland Guardians

Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Seattle Mariners, 12:10p

Summary

Clayton Kershaw’s likely final regular-season start gives this one a built‑in narrative hook, and both clubs are already playoff‑secure, so you’re tuning in for the sendoff and the swings. Seattle has locked a first‑round bye and L.A. is fixed as the NL’s No. 3 seed, which may shorten leashes but won’t mute the theater.

The gNERD sits a tick above both the historic and today’s averages, driven more by lively lineups than overpowering arms. L.A.’s top‑tier barrels and run creation meet a Mariners offense that’s also graded well by Batting Runs, while Seattle’s shaky fielding and merely average bullpen make late innings ripe for action—something we just saw when Andrés Muñoz faltered and the Dodgers struck for a ninth‑inning win, capped by a Kiké Hernández double. Kershaw’s pNERD is modest (average xFIP‑, low whiff rate), but pace helps the watchability, and the moment matters; this is billed as his final regular‑season start before the Dodgers pivot to a Wild Card series fronted by others. On the other side, Bryce Miller brings above‑average velocity and a profile that screams variance—subpar xFIP‑ but a big positive “Luck” flag—exactly the kind of starter who can either surf or drown against the Dodgers’ barrel brigade.

Probables: Kershaw vs. Miller are on the board.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Seattle Mariners

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 12:20p

Summary

Rivalry heat meets lineup chill: Chicago just clinched wild-card home field, so this one leans on the Cubs’ sparkling team game (baserunning/defense) more than a marquee mound duel. The gNERD sits mid-pack, and with Chicago likely resting regulars, watch for how clean defense and opportunistic running manufacture runs rather than a strikeout show.

Javier Assad’s pNERD is low for a reason: his peripherals (think mid‑4s FIP/xFIP profiles in recent seasons) lag the run prevention, so balls in play – and the gloves behind him – will tell the tale. The good news for neutral viewers is those gloves and legs are elite by tNERD, and the Cubs’ recent barrage from Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow‑Armstrong reminds you the lineup can still flash charge even on a throttle‑down day.

St. Louis counters with Kyle Leahy, a multi‑inning reliever turned spot starter whose early‑season estimators hovered around a 3.7 FIP/3.5 xFIP and whose 2025 usage suggests soft‑contact craft over whiffs – interesting if he’s opening a bullpen game. That dovetails with the Cards’ profile: meh bats and baserunning, better gloves and bullpen that can keep things watchable late. If you value crisp defense, aggressive running, and bullpen chess, this rivalry rubber tastes better than the pNERD suggests, even if the stakes are already spoken for.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 12:10p

Summary

This leans “tune‑in if you like bullpen muscle and one intriguing starter”: San Diego’s elite relief corps plus Brandon Pfaadt’s underlying gains prop up a mid‑tier gNERD. Also, keep an eye on the Padres’ starter listing—if it’s Nick Pivetta instead of JP Sears, watchability bumps; if it’s Sears, expect more contact than whiffs.

At 9.97, the gNERD sits a tick below both today’s average (10.57) and the historical median (10.10), so the draw is the tNERD split: San Diego’s pen is a feature attraction, while Arizona’s is a liability. Pfaadt’s pNERD (5.71) is buoyed by an above‑average xFIP‑ (97) and a sizable “luck” tailwind, suggesting better run prevention than his surface line; Sears’ pNERD (1.56), with a weaker xFIP‑ (114) and slower pace, points to more balls in play. Meanwhile, San Diego has been treating this series like a postseason tune‑up, and Arizona—already eliminated—has even rested stars, while Luis Arraez carries a hitting streak and Fernando Tatis Jr. just flexed his power. If Pivetta indeed takes the ball as reports hint, that’s a late upgrade. Either way, come for the Padres’ end‑game tandem (Miller/Suárez) and stay to see whether Pfaadt’s indicators pay off.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 12:05p

Summary

A mid-tier gNERD, high-contrast kind of watch: a sharp, post‑TJ Kyle Bradish versus a Yankees lineup that bludgeons baseballs. If Luis Gil’s command teeters, this leans more ‘spectacle’ than ‘duel’—with Bronx bats and pennant stakes carrying the show.

The model lands at a gNERD 9.13—below today’s average—because the pNERD split is lopsided: Bradish 7.53 (xFIP- 72) versus Gil at -0.46, a volatility flag that mirrors his 31 walks in 52 innings since returning. Bradish’s small-sample return has missed barrels and kept the ball in the park, the fun part here being whether that slider survives Judge & Co. while the Orioles’ low tNERD (2.94) and wobbly defense/bullpen dampen team-side appeal. On the other side, the Yankees’ high tNERD (8.26) is backed by top-of-the-league power—first in HR and SLG—which is watchable on its own. Recent context sweetens it: New York rides a seven-game win streak and Judge sits on 53 homers, while Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s X-rays were negative after a HBP.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

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Chicago White Sox @ Washington Nationals, 12:05p

Summary

Two 25-year-old rookies try to rescue a low-tNERD matchup: All-Star Rule 5 pickup Shane Smith meets Brad Lord, the ex–Home Depot seasonal hire turned rotation piece. With a gNERD of 7.44 (well below today’s slate average), this is a “maybe flip to it” game buoyed by the arms and a few loud kids with bats.

Smith’s pNERD (5.10) sits around the historical median, but his mid-90s fastball and swing-and-miss flashes — plus that midseason All-Star nod — give him some appointment-TV potential; he just punched out eight his last time through. Lord grades a touch better by pNERD (6.18) with a faster pace and the more promising xFIP- (95 vs. Smith’s 104); he’s been competitive even against top foes, though his secondaries have wobbled at times. The team side drags: both clubs’ tNERDs are bottom-tier, with Washington’s defense/bullpen metrics particularly joyless, so the selling point is watching the young core swing hard at their futures. James Wood (31) and Daylen Lile’s late-September heater just powered a comeback, while Chicago’s Colson Montgomery provided counterpunch pop. In short, average-ish pitching intrigue plus rookie thump equals a watch if you’re scouting growth, not if you need polish.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Washington Nationals

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, 12:15p

Summary

The gNERD says “background viewing” (7.02), but the storyline says “don’t change the channel”: Charlie Morton is set to open what’s likely his last MLB appearance, with Chris Sale expected to follow, a tidy bookend for a career that started in Atlanta. Opposite him is Johan Oviedo, still easing back from Tommy John, which makes this more about arcs than aces.

By the model, this is a below‑average watch: the average pNERD (3.43) is soft, and the teams’ average tNERD (3.59) drags thanks to Atlanta’s flimsy baserunning and bullpen and Pittsburgh’s bat lightness, though the Pirates’ glove and relief work help. Morton’s 2025 results haven’t sparkled (around a 5.0 FIP across BAL/DET), but he was re‑signed this week so he can go out in a Braves uniform; think curveball nostalgia more than strikeout clinic. Oviedo’s stuff has flashed since returning, including 5 scoreless‑except‑for‑a‑solo over five with six Ks in a win last month, even if the command has wobbled in spots. Layer on context: Atlanta’s already out of the postseason and missing Ozzie Albies (hamate), and this series just featured ejections for Matt Olson and Brian Snitker. If you tune in, do it for the goodbye and the curve, with a side of Pirates’ bullpen competence.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Atlanta Braves

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 12:05p

Summary

Logan Webb versus a green Rockies arm is the hook; San Francisco is angling for a clean .500 finish, and Webb’s pNERD-heavy profile says they’ve got a real shot. gNERD sits below today’s average, but it’s watchable if you enjoy one ace carving while a rookie learns in public.

Webb’s 9.62 pNERD is powered by a sparkling 69 xFIP- and a quick tempo (~16.5s), and he’s already crossed the 200-inning/200-strikeout thresholds, the kind of workload that usually yields crisp, low-drama viewing. Across the way, 24-year-old McCade Brown brings novelty more than refinement: a 0.35 pNERD and a 143 xFIP-, but also the “what’s next?” appeal of a post–Tommy John prospect who debuted in late August. The team side explains the modest gNERD: average tNERD here is 1.46, dragged by Colorado’s bottom-tier bats, baserunning and bullpen, with San Francisco’s steadier defense/bullpen (and strong booth) doing most of the lifting. The soft stakes are still real: a Giants win avoids a losing record, while the Rockies are closing out a historically rough campaign.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

McCade Brown, Colorado Rockies

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 12:07p

Summary

The slate’s lowest gNERD still sneaks in two hooks: Lance McCullers Jr. surfaces for Houston and Angels rookie Sam Aldegheri—MLB’s first pitcher born and raised in Italy—gets the ball. With Houston already eliminated and Anaheim deep into another October off, this finale leans more toward curiosities than stakes.

McCullers’ pNERD is near zero for a reason: his 2025 peripherals scream short leash (xFIP- 127, vanishing whiffs and strikes), and he’s fresh off another IL stint after a bullpen detour. Aldegheri’s pNERD reads as “unknown,” which is accurate—tiny MLB sample, lefty with a low-90s mix and a cool backstory, but not much in the way of established indicators. The team-level math doesn’t sand down the edges: Houston’s average tNERD is buoyed by legit fielding and a stable bullpen, while the Angels pair top-tier barrel rate with bottom-tier defense and a leaky pen, a recipe for extra-base hits and untidy innings. With a gNERD of 5.77—lowest on the day and near the historical basement—this isn’t premium appointment TV, but if you’re into “what does McCullers look like now?” and “hey, that’s the Italian kid,” there’s enough novelty to justify a flip.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Houston Astros

Los Angeles Angels

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros

Sam Aldegheri, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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