MLB: What to watch on September 30, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.4 | 3:08p | Boston Red Sox | 8.6 | New York Yankees | 8.4 | Garrett Crochet | 12.1 | Max Fried | 5.7 |
| 17.0 | 10:08a | Detroit Tigers | 7.0 | Cleveland Guardians | 7.7 | Tarik Skubal | 13.4 | Gavin Williams | 5.8 |
| 15.6 | 6:08p | Cincinnati Reds | 3.4 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.5 | Hunter Greene | 12.1 | Blake Snell | 8.3 |
| 13.7 | 12:08p | San Diego Padres | 7.4 | Chicago Cubs | 10.4 | Nick Pivetta | 5.1 | Matthew Boyd | 4.4 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 3:08p
Summary
Top gNERD on the board with October stakes: Crochet’s bat-missing engine meets the Yankees’ barrel factory. Fried’s late-season pitch-mix makeover gives this a real duel feel, with Boston’s elite run prevention lurking to swing it late.
At 17.37, this sits above today’s slate and near the very top of the historical distribution, and the model logic tracks: Garrett Crochet’s pNERD is premium (12.05) on an ace’s profile — xFIP- 63, 96.3 mph, brisk pace — against Max Fried’s more mortal but savvy line (pNERD 5.65; xFIP- 81) after he pared back the cutter and spiked whiffs. Crochet’s form isn’t just modeled; he just logged eight scoreless in his final tune-up, and he’s handled New York all year.
The Yankees’ side of the gNERD ledger is loud-contact entertainment — their tNERD leans heavily on elite barrel rate — while Boston’s comes from a top-end bullpen, plus defense and baserunning that actually show up on TV. Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito’s elbow scratch thins Boston’s rotation and heightens Crochet’s leverage and the relievers’ importance.
Add that Boston took the season series 9–4 and you’ve got rivalry juice with genuine on-field contrasts. In short: prioritize this one.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 21.1 | 9.1% | 7.8 | 21.5 | 65.7 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -2.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1.06 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.10 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1.06 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 8.61 |
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.7 | 5.4 | 26.4 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.91 | 2.67 | -0.77 | 0.24 | -0.27 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.91 | 2.67 | -0.77 | 0.24 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.43 |
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 63 | 13.7% | 67.1% | 96.3 mph | 26 | 17.4s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.31 | 1.46 | 1.40 | 1.10 | -0.65 | -0.91 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.62 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.05 |
Max Fried, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 81 | 11.3% | 63.5% | 94.3 mph | 31 | 20.6s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.22 | 0.30 | -0.18 | 0.18 | 0.66 | 1.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.45 | 0.15 | -0.09 | 0.18 | 0.00 | -0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.65 |
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:08a
Summary
Ace vs. run-prevention machine: Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal meets a Cleveland club that just overtook Detroit with defense, baserunning, and a nasty bullpen — plus Gavin Williams arriving hot. A gNERD of 16.98 makes this one a top-tier watch today and well above the historical 95th percentile, and the recent Tigers-Guardians friction only sharpens it.
Skubal’s pNERD (13.4) headlines the card, backed by elite FIP leadership and strikeout/whiff chops; he’s been the AL Cy Young pole-sitter for months and has diced Cleveland repeatedly this season. Williams (pNERD 5.8) isn’t Skubal, but his velocity and recent run of quality starts have stabilized Cleveland, who rode a late charge to seize the division and the head-to-head tiebreaker — and who beat Skubal in a chaotic, bunt-fueled rally the last time they saw him.
The team split tilts the drama: Detroit’s tNERD leans on barrels and plus baserunning but a wobbly bullpen, while Cleveland’s tNERD reflects elite gloves, aggressiveness on the bases, and one of the sport’s better relief corps with Emmanuel Clase and friends. Add a postseason rematch vibe — Cleveland ousted Detroit last October — and recent bruises (David Fry sidelined after taking a 99 mph Skubal heater to the face) and you’ve got high-stakes, low-mistake baseball.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 5.4 | 3.8 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.17 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.17 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 7.02 |
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -90.7 | 6.5% | 7.6 | 28.3 | 63.9 | $102.3M | 27.5 | -41.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.23 | -1.69 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.43 | -0.95 | -1.25 | -1.82 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.23 | -1.69 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.43 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.73 |
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 63 | 16.6% | 70.3% | 97.5 mph | 28 | 17.6s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.31 | 2.86 | 2.80 | 1.65 | -0.13 | -0.75 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.62 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.65 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 13.40 |
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 11.8% | 61.6% | 96.5 mph | 25 | 19.2s | -22 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.20 | 0.54 | -1.00 | 1.19 | -0.92 | 0.55 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.40 | 0.27 | -0.50 | 1.19 | 0.92 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.80 |
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:08p
Summary
Ace-level stuff and a playoff stage make this eminently watchable: 100-mph Hunter Greene back in SoCal versus a freshly healthy Blake Snell is a bat-missing duel with real stakes. Cincinnati’s weakness vs lefties gives Snell an early edge, so the starters likely decide it before the bullpens get ideas.
The math agrees: a 15.64 gNERD sits well above the historical median, and it’s driven by pitching—Greene’s elite pNERD (12.15) and Snell’s sturdy 8.26. Greene brings upper-90s/100 with improved command and strikeout heft, and yes, the radar gun receipts are real (fastball ~99–100). Snell, meanwhile, returned from a four-month shoulder layoff punching tickets again (32.7% K rate since reactivation) and closed September with back-to-back gems, exactly the swing-and-miss profile this model rewards.
On the team side, the Dodgers’ bats are the watchability ballast while the Reds’ offense grades light in our tNERD and, more concretely, posted a bottom-tier 79 wRC+ vs LHP—precisely the Snell matchup you’d order. If there’s late volatility, it’s LA’s recently wobbly relief corps, which has coughed up leads of late, nudging urgency onto Snell’s innings. Add Greene’s local-homecoming subplot and the Dodgers hosting as the NL’s No. 3 seed, and you’ve got premium stuff plus clean narratives—worthy of your primary screen.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -56.9 | 7.2% | 5.2 | -3.8 | 30.4 | $115.7M | 28.7 | -19.0 | 2.09 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.76 | -1.11 | 0.68 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -0.85 | -0.59 | -0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.76 | -1.11 | 0.68 | -0.14 | -0.09 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.36 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.0 | 9.9% | -1.1 | 0.7 | 56.4 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.11 | -0.24 | 0.04 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.11 | -0.24 | 0.04 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.52 |
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 79 | 15.4% | 68.6% | 99.5 mph | 25 | 17.1s | -17 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.34 | 2.28 | 2.06 | 2.56 | -0.92 | -1.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.69 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 2.00 | 0.92 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.15 |
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 75 | 15.3% | 62.1% | 95.2 mph | 32 | 18.6s | -19 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.59 | 2.23 | -0.78 | 0.59 | 0.92 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.17 | 1.11 | -0.39 | 0.59 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.26 |
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs, 12:08p
Summary
It’s not an ace-off so much as a skills clinic: elite Cubs defense and go-go baserunning against a Padres club that wins the close ones with a nasty bullpen. In other words, bring a stopwatch for Chicago’s legs and a lie detector for San Diego’s late-inning nerves.
With a gNERD of 13.69, this sits near today’s floor but still comfortably above the historic median—watchability here is driven by tNERD, not pNERD. Chicago’s top-of-the-day tNERD (10.35) matches the eyeball test: Pete Crow-Armstrong and friends have been impact gloves and burners, and Kyle Tucker is back to lengthen the lineup. On the mound, All-Star Matthew Boyd isn’t flashy but he fills the zone and has logged real results (see the eight scoreless vs. the Yankees), a good fit for Wrigley with this defense. San Diego’s tNERD (7.43) leans on a “win prevention” identity: Nick Pivetta’s improved underlying profile since signing in February plus a bullpen headlined by saves leader Robert Suarez. As a bonus subplot, it’s a 1984 NLCS rematch, and these clubs split six and runs (25–25) this year—expect margins to be thin.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.7 | 7.4% | -0.9 | 1.8 | 73.2 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 7.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.25 | -0.95 | -0.21 | 0.09 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.25 | -0.95 | -0.21 | 0.09 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 7.43 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71.9 | 9.9% | 10.9 | 34.9 | 28.9 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -6.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.16 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.27 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.35 |
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 93 | 10.5% | 65.8% | 93.8 mph | 32 | 18.6s | -22 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.50 | -0.08 | 0.83 | -0.05 | 0.92 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.00 | -0.04 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.14 |
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 10.7% | 67.1% | 93.2 mph | 34 | 18.5s | -24 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.04 | 0.01 | 1.42 | -0.32 | 1.44 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.44 |