MLB: What to watch on October 1, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.7 | 12:08p | San Diego Padres | 7.3 | Chicago Cubs | 10.4 | Dylan Cease | 8.6 | Andrew Kittredge | No data |
| 12.6 | 3:08p | Boston Red Sox | 8.8 | New York Yankees | 8.5 | Brayan Bello | 3.1 | Carlos Rodón | 4.9 |
| 12.4 | 10:08a | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Cleveland Guardians | 7.8 | Casey Mize | 5.9 | Tanner Bibee | 4.4 |
| 11.9 | 6:08p | Cincinnati Reds | 3.4 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | Zack Littell | 4.0 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 8.9 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs, 12:08p
Summary
A high-octane ace versus bullpen gamesmanship, with elite defense and baserunning sharpening every edge. This sits at the very top of the watchability heap, with a gNERD of 15.66 that leads today’s slate and clears the 95th percentile of historical games.
Dylan Cease’s pNERD is carrying the pitching side for a reason: the righty still brings upper‑90s heat and bat-missing juice (avg. 97.1 mph fastball, 16.4% SwStr%), and he finished the regular season with 215 strikeouts despite a noisier run-prevention line, a profile our model rewards more than ERA. Across the diamond, Chicago is opening with Andrew Kittredge by design, a Counsell gambit to dodge a rough first inning and then hand the game to length behind him — a tactical wrinkle that makes pNERD less predictive but the chess more fun. The Cubs’ tNERD pop is real: they’ve been one of MLB’s best on the bases and grade out near the top in team OAA, a recipe that plays in tight postseason run environments. San Diego counters with a deep, impact bullpen that’s carried run prevention stretches and can shorten the game if Cease hands over a lead. And yes, Chicago already slugged its way to a Game 1 win — Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly went back-to-back — so the urgency needle is pinned.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.7 | 7.5% | -1.1 | -0.7 | 73.2 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 7.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.25 | -0.90 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.25 | -0.90 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 7.35 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71.9 | 10.0% | 10.9 | 35.0 | 28.8 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -6.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.27 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.39 |
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 86 | 15.6% | 63.2% | 97.0 mph | 29 | 19.8s | 26 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.92 | 2.37 | -0.30 | 1.42 | 0.13 | 1.03 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.85 | 1.19 | -0.15 | 1.42 | 0.00 | -0.52 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.58 |
Andrew Kittredge, Chicago Cubs
No detailed stats available
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 3:08p
Summary
It’s Yankees thunder versus Red Sox run-prevention in a postseason installment of baseball’s longest-running squabble. And with Brayan Bello having already gagged the Pinstripes twice this year, Game 2 has plenty of bite even if the starters’ pNERDs don’t.
The gNERD is a mid-pack 12.64 for today but still above the historical median, and the watchability lift comes more from the teams than the name-brand arms. New York’s tNERD is powered by elite thump (barrel rate component +2.65) and big batting runs, while Boston counters with top-shelf defense and a bullpen that grades strongly (+1.50) plus real baserunning value (+1.10). Bello’s pNERD (3.12) reflects fewer whiffs and a slower pace, yet his actual matchup track record against New York has been excellent, including seven scoreless in the Bronx; that’s the tactical intrigue here. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodón (pNERD 4.94) brings the better underlying run estimator (xFIP- component +1.00) and swing-and-miss, a decent foil for Boston’s contact-and-speed profile. The broader storyline juice is undeniable: Boston already snagged Game 1 on the road, so the Yankees hand the ball to Rodón to avoid a quick exit and salvage all that power with something to show for it.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 21.1 | 9.2% | 8.1 | 23.2 | 65.5 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -2.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.31 | 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.97 | 1.50 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.10 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.31 | 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.97 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 8.76 |
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.6 | 6.3 | 26.3 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.46 |
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 105 | 8.6% | 62.1% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 20.1s | -27 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.22 | -1.00 | -0.79 | 0.64 | -0.65 | 1.27 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.44 | -0.50 | -0.39 | 0.64 | 0.65 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.12 |
Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 93 | 12.4% | 62.6% | 93.8 mph | 32 | 18.5s | -17 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.50 | 0.83 | -0.57 | -0.05 | 0.92 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.00 | 0.42 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.94 |
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:08a
Summary
Cleveland’s season hangs on Tanner Bibee, who’s been a bona fide Tiger-tamer lately, while Detroit brings the slightly stronger “watchability” via better bats and a starter with steadier peripherals. It’s a mid-tier gNERD today, powered more by crisp team traits (CLE defense/bullpen; DET barrels/baserunning) than by ace-level strikeout theater.
Detroit’s Casey Mize posts a better-than-average xFIP- (95) and works briskly, which pairs nicely with a Tigers lineup that runs and barrels at above-average clips, even if their bullpen is a buzzkill. Cleveland counters with elite run prevention vibes—plus a pen that actually adds suspense the right way—and Bibee’s particular matchup history: he logged two late-September wins over Detroit with 12 innings of one-run ball, including six strong versus these same Tigers, and has generally throttled them this year. Detroit already banked Game 1 behind Tarik Skubal’s wild-card record 14 Ks, so the Guardians are in survive-and-advance mode—stakes that sharpen every pitch. If there’s a micro-plot to watch, it’s Mize’s splitter versus Cleveland’s lefties and Bo Naylor in particular, who’s handled the pitch and has already taken Mize deep.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.4 | 3.6 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.84 |
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -90.7 | 6.6% | 7.8 | 27.8 | 63.8 | $102.3M | 27.5 | -41.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.23 | -1.65 | 1.05 | 1.16 | 1.43 | -0.95 | -1.25 | -1.82 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.23 | -1.65 | 1.05 | 1.16 | 1.43 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.76 |
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95 | 10.8% | 65.9% | 94.7 mph | 28 | 17.7s | -1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.38 | 0.06 | 0.87 | 0.36 | -0.13 | -0.67 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.76 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.85 |
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 100 | 10.0% | 64.1% | 94.3 mph | 26 | 19.9s | 5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.08 | -0.32 | 0.10 | 0.18 | -0.65 | 1.11 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.16 | -0.16 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.65 | -0.56 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.38 |
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:08p
Summary
If you’re tuning in for one thing, make it Yoshinobu Yamamoto in peak form trying to slam the door on a series that already tilted L.A.’s way with a five‑homer opener. Cincinnati counters with command‑first Zack Littell, which is a brave choice against a lineup that just turned 100.4 mph into a 117.7‑mph souvenir—twice.
On paper the gNERD is modest for the slate, but it’s buoyed by Yamamoto’s 8.89 pNERD and the Dodgers’ 7.57 tNERD: a 74 xFIP‑ and mid‑90s velocity underpin the ace‑stuff, while L.A.’s bats and bullpen grade well. Cincinnati’s 3.39 tNERD drags thanks to light barrels, though their baserunning gives them at least one lever to pull. Yamamoto just took September NL Pitcher of the Month after 27 IP with 34 strikeouts and two runs allowed—and he nearly no‑hit Baltimore—then finished the regular season with 201 K, which is the sort of recent dominance that spikes watchability even when the matchup isn’t perfectly balanced.
The Dodgers may shuffle some gloves after Tommy Edman (ankle) and Kiké Hernández (back) exited the opener but are expected to be available. For this to pop, the Reds need early traffic and chaos on the bases while Littell keeps the ball off barrels longer than usual; otherwise, it’s Yamamoto’s clinic and L.A.’s depth again.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -56.9 | 7.2% | 5.4 | -2.8 | 30.4 | $115.7M | 28.7 | -19.0 | 2.09 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.76 | -1.15 | 0.71 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -0.85 | -0.59 | -0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.76 | -1.15 | 0.71 | -0.10 | -0.09 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.39 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.0 | 10.0% | -1.2 | 0.7 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.25 | 0.04 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.25 | 0.04 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.57 |
Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 104 | 9.3% | 67.0% | 91.9 mph | 29 | 18.0s | -14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.16 | -0.66 | 1.35 | -0.92 | 0.13 | -0.42 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.32 | -0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.03 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 74 | 12.6% | 64.0% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 18.5s | -15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.65 | 0.93 | 0.07 | 0.64 | -0.65 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.29 | 0.46 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.89 |