MLB: What to watch on October 2, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1 | 5:08p | Boston Red Sox | 8.8 | New York Yankees | 8.5 | Connelly Early | No data | Cam Schlittler | 8.0 |
| 13.2 | 2:08p | San Diego Padres | 7.4 | Chicago Cubs | 10.4 | Yu Darvish | 4.3 | Jameson Taillon | 4.3 |
| 13.2 | 12:08p | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Cleveland Guardians | 7.7 | Jack Flaherty | 6.6 | Slade Cecconi | 5.1 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 5:08p
Summary
Rookies decide a rivalry in a winner‑take‑all: Cam Schlittler brings 98 and strikes, while Connelly Early arrives with a record‑tying 11‑K debut on his résumé. New York’s power meets Boston’s legs and bullpen; the fuse is already lit.
At a gNERD of 15.12—top of today’s slate (range 13.17–15.12)—this grades as must‑watch even before the stakes. Boston’s tNERD pop comes from elite run prevention helpers: baserunning (+1.10) and a top bullpen (+1.50). The Yankees counter with thunder: league‑best‑grade barrel rate (0.118, +2.65) and hefty batting runs (+1.91). On the mound, Schlittler’s pNERD is the day’s headliner (8.01), driven by a tidy xFIP‑ (90) and that 98 mph heater, though he works deliberately. He’s also a 24‑year‑old Northeastern product from Massachusetts—now starting against the team he grew up around.
Recent form says the Bronx bats are dangerous in tight spots—Game 2 flipped on Austin Wells’ late single, with Ben Rice and Aaron Judge supplying earlier damage before David Bednar closed it down—which only heightens the watchability if this stays close. Early, meanwhile, already flashed bat‑missing stuff with those 11 strikeouts in his first outing; if that carries, the contrast with New York’s power becomes the night’s axis.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 21.1 | 9.2% | 8.1 | 23.2 | 65.5 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -2.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.31 | 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.97 | 1.50 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.10 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.31 | 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.97 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 8.76 |
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.6 | 6.3 | 26.3 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.74 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.74 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.47 |
Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox
No detailed stats available
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 11.1% | 65.8% | 98.0 mph | 24 | 20.3s | -17 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.21 | 0.82 | 1.87 | -1.18 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.10 | 0.41 | 1.87 | 1.18 | -0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.01 |
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs, 2:08p
Summary
Winner‑take‑all at Wrigley, with Yu Darvish facing his former club, is watchable because the lineups, gloves, and bullpens—not the starters—should decide it. pNERDs are ordinary, but the Cubs’ high‑action profile and San Diego’s relief machine push this into your short list. The series is tied and turns here after San Diego’s bullpen‑aided 3–0 win, which featured Mason Miller’s wipeout bridge to Robert Suárez; expect Padres relief to loom again given their top‑tier tNERD bullpen component. Darvish brings league‑average indicators (pNERD 4.26; xFIP‑ 100) and a familiar backdrop—he pitched for Chicago from 2018–20 and still speaks warmly of Wrigley—so the novelty is narrative, not nastiness. Chicago counters with Jameson Taillon (pNERD 4.35; xFIP‑ 105), a likely starter per local reports, whose strike‑throwing pairs with a defense and baserunning unit that rate highly in tNERD, a recipe for crisp pace and in‑play action. Darvish has been effective in October for San Diego and Taillon hasn’t started a postseason game since 2022—small but flavorful storylines. The 13.17 gNERD sits near the low end of today’s slate but comfortably above historic median, so this is a solid, drama‑first watch.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.7 | 7.5% | -1.1 | -0.7 | 73.2 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 7.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.25 | -0.90 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.25 | -0.90 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 7.35 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71.9 | 10.0% | 10.9 | 34.9 | 28.8 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -6.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.27 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.39 |
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 100 | 9.8% | 64.9% | 93.7 mph | 38 | 20.3s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.08 | -0.42 | 0.45 | -0.09 | 2.49 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.16 | -0.21 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.72 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.26 |
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 105 | 9.2% | 67.4% | 92.3 mph | 33 | 17.1s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.22 | -0.71 | 1.54 | -0.73 | 1.18 | -1.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.44 | -0.35 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.35 |
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians, 12:08p
Summary
Winner‑take‑all baseball in Cleveland: Detroit’s barrel‑happy lineup meets the Guardians’ gloves‑and‑bullpen machine. It’s Jack Flaherty (xFIP‑ 88) vs. Slade Cecconi (xFIP‑ 98), the December return for Josh Naylor who has fared well in a tiny sample against Detroit.
gNERD 13.17 lands at the low end of today’s range but comfortably above the historic median, so think “strong, not maximal.” pNERD leans Detroit (Flaherty 6.63 > Cecconi 5.12), and the Tigers bring barrels (+0.67) and some running game (+0.56), but a shaky bullpen (−0.92) dings watchability; Cleveland counters with standout defense (+1.16), plus a robust, high‑leverage bullpen (+1.43) that tends to keep late innings taut. Skubal’s 14‑K opener and Cleveland’s five‑run eighth in Game 2 (Rocchio go‑ahead, Bo Naylor three‑run) supply fresh stakes without pyrotechnics.
Recent familiarity is a subplot, not a prophecy: Flaherty just saw Cleveland down the stretch, while Cecconi has logged two solid starts vs. Detroit; interesting, but sample‑size‑small. Netting it out, the pNERD edge to Detroit plus Cleveland’s team‑level tNERD perks make this a clean skill‑vs‑skill watch—less fireworks than tension, and worth sticking around for the late leverage.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.4 | 3.6 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.84 |
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -90.7 | 6.6% | 7.7 | 27.8 | 63.8 | $102.3M | 27.5 | -41.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.23 | -1.65 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.43 | -0.95 | -1.25 | -1.82 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.23 | -1.65 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.43 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.75 |
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 88 | 11.3% | 63.6% | 92.9 mph | 29 | 18.2s | 25 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.80 | 0.30 | -0.12 | -0.46 | 0.13 | -0.26 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.60 | 0.15 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.63 |
Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 9.5% | 64.3% | 94.2 mph | 26 | 18.7s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.20 | -0.56 | 0.16 | 0.14 | -0.65 | 0.14 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.40 | -0.28 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.65 | -0.07 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.12 |