MLB: What to watch on October 4, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.1 | 3:38p | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.3 | Shohei Ohtani | 12.5 | Cristopher Sánchez | 9.7 |
| 14.9 | 11:08a | Chicago Cubs | 10.4 | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.7 | Matthew Boyd | 4.4 | Freddy Peralta | 5.3 |
| 14.0 | 5:38p | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Troy Melton | 5.9 | George Kirby | 9.3 |
| 10.4 | 1:08p | New York Yankees | 8.5 | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | Luis Gil | -0.4 | Kevin Gausman | 5.9 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:38p
Summary
This is the highest-rated game on today's slate and one of the best matchups you'll see all season: an NLDS Game 1 featuring Shohei Ohtani making his postseason pitching debut against Cristopher Sánchez, with two MVP candidates and a recent playoff rivalry on the line. The gNERD score of 19.07 ranks near the top of all games in the historical dataset and well above today's average, driven by elite pitching matchups and two offensive juggernauts.
Ohtani will be the fourth player all time to start a playoff game at pitcher and another position in his postseason career, and his pNERD of 12.49 is the highest on today's slate. His 98.1 mph velocity and 60 xFIP- make him a force on the mound, while Sánchez ranked second in NL innings (202), third in ERA (2.50), fourth in WHIP (1.06) and fifth in strikeouts (212). His 9.73 pNERD reflects a 68 xFIP- and strong swinging-strike rate. Both teams bring potent offenses—the Dodgers with 95 batting runs and the Phillies with solid baserunning (1.09 component)—while the Phillies' luck component (1.27) suggests they've underperformed their talent. The Phillies won the season series against the Dodgers, 4-2, adding an extra layer to this already compelling playoff opener.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.0 | 10.0% | -1.3 | 1.4 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.59 |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 66.7 | 9.0% | 8.0 | 1.2 | 27.9 | $279.5M | 29.5 | 29.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.94 | 0.34 | 1.09 | 0.07 | -0.21 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.94 | 0.34 | 1.09 | 0.07 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 8.33 |
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 60 | 14.2% | 65.7% | 98.1 mph | 30 | 18.3s | 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.49 | 1.70 | 0.81 | 1.92 | 0.39 | -0.18 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.98 | 0.85 | 0.40 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.49 |
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 68 | 13.9% | 67.0% | 95.4 mph | 28 | 19.4s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.01 | 1.56 | 1.36 | 0.68 | -0.13 | 0.71 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.01 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.13 | -0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.73 |
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:08a
Summary
This is a playoff matchup worth your attention, as two NL Central rivals square off in the NLDS with strong team fundamentals and a compelling storyline around former Brewers manager Craig Counsell returning to Milwaukee. The gNERD of 14.92 sits well above the historical average and near the top of today's slate, driven primarily by elite team metrics on both sides rather than dominant pitching.
Freddy Peralta, who went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA this season, brings solid watchability with a pNERD of 5.29, bolstered by his strong xFIP- of 93 and above-average swinging strike rate. He went 3-1 against the Cubs this season, allowing eight runs over 21 innings, demonstrating familiarity with this lineup. Matthew Boyd counters with a respectable 4.44 pNERD, though he threw 58 pitches in 4⅓ innings just four days ago, raising questions about effectiveness on short rest.
The real entertainment comes from the team side, where both clubs post exceptional tNERD scores above 9.7. The Cubs lead all teams today at 10.39, powered by strong baserunning (1.51 component) and fielding (1.46), while Milwaukee counters with the best baserunning mark in the dataset (2.12) and a bullpen that ranks in the top tier. The Cubs won the season series 7-6, suggesting competitive balance that should translate to close, engaging baseball.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71.9 | 10.0% | 10.9 | 34.9 | 28.8 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -6.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.27 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.51 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.39 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 50.3 | 6.7% | 15.1 | 21.6 | 57.2 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -26.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.13 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.15 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 9.71 |
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 10.7% | 67.1% | 93.2 mph | 34 | 18.5s | -24 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.04 | 0.01 | 1.42 | -0.32 | 1.44 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.44 |
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 93 | 12.9% | 61.6% | 94.8 mph | 29 | 18.4s | -28 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.50 | 1.07 | -1.01 | 0.41 | 0.13 | -0.10 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.00 | 0.54 | -0.51 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.29 |
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners, 5:38p
Summary
This ALDS Game 1 opener features a playoff rookie facing one of the AL's best pitchers in a series with significant stakes, but the pitching mismatch and the Mariners' home-field advantage tilt expectations toward Seattle. The Tigers and Mariners meet in the American League Division Series with a spot in the ALCS on the line, and the Mariners won the season series 4-2. The gNERD of 13.96 sits below today's average of 14.59 but well above the historical median of 10.10, making this a solidly watchable contest. George Kirby's pNERD of 9.33 is well-earned, with an xFIP- of 77 placing him among the league's elite starters, though Kirby also started the Mariners' lone home playoff game in 2022, pitching seven scoreless innings in a game they ultimately lost. The Tigers will counter with rookie Troy Melton (3-2, 2.76), who made four regular-season starts, and his pNERD of 5.88 reflects limited data more than proven effectiveness. His 96.8 mph velocity is a bright spot, but the xFIP- of 109 suggests he's been fortunate. The Mariners bring offensive firepower, with Cal Raleigh fresh off a 60-homer season that put him in a head-to-head race with Aaron Judge for AL MVP. Both teams feature strong batting metrics, but Seattle's superior pitching and home environment give them the edge in what should be a competitive opener.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.4 | 3.6 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.16 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.16 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.84 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.9 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 109 | 10.1% | 64.2% | 96.8 mph | 24 | 17.1s | -42 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.46 | -0.27 | 0.13 | 1.33 | -1.18 | -1.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.92 | -0.14 | 0.06 | 1.33 | 1.18 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.88 |
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 77 | 11.8% | 65.2% | 96.2 mph | 27 | 19.5s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.46 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.05 | -0.39 | 0.79 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.93 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1.05 | 0.39 | -0.39 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.33 |
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, 1:08p
Summary
This ALDS Game 1 matchup between division rivals sits well below average for watchability, weighed down by a pitcher mismatch that heavily favors Toronto. Gil returned from a four-month lat strain in August and went 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts, but command and velocity issues have persisted, with his fastball velocity dropping from 96.6 mph last season to 95.3 mph this year. His xFIP of 136 is concerning, ranking him among the least effective starters, and his pNERD score of -0.43 sits near the bottom of today's games. Meanwhile, Gausman went 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA and 189 strikeouts over 32 starts, posting a solid 5.87 pNERD backed by a 90 xFIP-. Gausman has been lights out in his last two starts against the Yankees, holding them to four hits and a run in seven innings on July 21 before pitching eight innings of one-run ball on September 5. The Yankees bring elite offensive firepower with 137.2 batting runs and a league-leading 0.118 barrel rate, but Toronto won the AL East based on an 8-5 head-to-head record that included a 6-1 advantage north of the border. The gNERD of 10.43 ranks below both the historical median and today's average, making this a game you can safely skip unless you're invested in the rivalry.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.6 | 6.3 | 26.3 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.74 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.74 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.47 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.5 | 38.5 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.94 |
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 136 | 8.7% | 61.2% | 95.3 mph | 27 | 18.6s | -54 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 2.09 | -0.95 | -1.16 | 0.64 | -0.39 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -4.18 | -0.47 | -0.58 | 0.64 | 0.39 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | -0.43 |
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 12.6% | 67.4% | 94.5 mph | 34 | 20.5s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.93 | 1.53 | 0.27 | 1.44 | 1.60 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 0.00 | -0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.87 |