MLB: What to watch on October 5, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.8 | 5:03p | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Tarik Skubal | 13.4 | Luis Castillo | 5.5 |
| 13.0 | 1:08p | New York Yankees | 8.5 | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | Max Fried | 5.7 | Trey Yesavage | No data |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners, 5:03p
Summary
This ALDS Game 2 features one of the season's elite pitchers against a competent veteran, and the gNERD score of 15.78 ranks among the best available today and sits comfortably in the 90th percentile historically. Skubal faces a Mariners lineup headlined by Cal Raleigh, fresh off a 60-homer season that put him in contention for AL MVP, making this a premier ace-versus-slugger showdown after Detroit took Game 1 in 11 innings. Skubal's pNERD of 13.40 reflects his elite strikeout rate (top 99th percentile in swinging strikes) and a 63 xFIP- that puts him among baseball's best, while his 97.5 mph fastball velocity adds to the entertainment value. Castillo's more modest 5.46 pNERD shows he's a solid starter but not in Skubal's stratosphere, with his 98 xFIP- indicating league-average effectiveness. The Tigers bring slightly better team fundamentals with advantages in barrel rate and baserunning, while Seattle counters with superior batting runs despite poor fielding. Detroit gets a boost with Colt Keith returning from injury to slot into the lineup. With Detroit leading the series 1-0, Seattle needs to capitalize on home field before heading to Michigan, adding urgency to an already compelling pitching matchup.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.4 | 3.6 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.16 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.16 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.84 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.9 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 63 | 16.6% | 70.3% | 97.5 mph | 28 | 17.6s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.31 | 2.86 | 2.80 | 1.65 | -0.13 | -0.75 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.62 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.65 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 13.40 |
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 11.4% | 65.2% | 95.0 mph | 32 | 17.8s | -6 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.20 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.92 | -0.59 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.46 |
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, 1:08p
Summary
This ALDS Game 2 matchup pits playoff experience against raw rookie talent, as the Yankees send veteran Max Fried against 22-year-old Trey Yesavage, who began 2025 in Single-A and has just three MLB starts under his belt. Yesavage posted a 3.21 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 14 innings in September, and the Blue Jays are banking on his composure in a high-stakes environment where the Yankees haven't seen him in person.
The gNERD score of 13.03 sits below today's average but above the historical median, driven primarily by the teams rather than the pitching matchup. The Yankees' 8.47 tNERD is today's highest, powered by elite batting (1.91 runs above average) and a league-leading barrel rate (2.65 component). Toronto's 6.94 tNERD features strong fielding (1.61) but weaker baserunning and barrel production. Fried's 5.65 pNERD reflects solid effectiveness with an 81 xFIP- and 94.3 mph velocity, though his deliberate 20.6-second pace drags on watchability. Yesavage's elite split-finger fastball helped him set a Blue Jays record by striking out nine Rays batters in his debut. The zero pNERD for Yesavage simply reflects limited statistical data rather than poor quality. With Toronto leading the season series 9-5, this divisional playoff battle offers compelling storylines even if the pitching analytics favor experience over unknown potential.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.6 | 6.2 | 26.3 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.74 | 0.27 | -0.28 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.74 | 0.27 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.47 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.5 | 38.5 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.94 |
Max Fried, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 81 | 11.3% | 63.5% | 94.3 mph | 31 | 20.6s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.22 | 0.30 | -0.18 | 0.18 | 0.66 | 1.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.45 | 0.15 | -0.09 | 0.18 | 0.00 | -0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.65 |
Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays
No detailed stats available
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