Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on October 6, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
17.2 3:08p Los Angeles Dodgers 7.6 Philadelphia Phillies 8.3 Blake Snell 8.3 Jesús Luzardo 10.2
16.4 6:08p Chicago Cubs 10.4 Milwaukee Brewers 9.7 Shota Imanaga 3.8 Aaron Ashby 8.9

Notes:

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:08p

Summary

This NLDS Game 2 pitching matchup features two elite lefties with the Dodgers looking to take a commanding 2-0 series lead after Teoscar Hernández's dramatic comeback homer won Game 1. Blake Snell and Jesús Luzardo square off in what figures to be a strikeout-heavy affair, with both pitchers posting pNERD scores well above the historical average and combining for an impressive 9.24 average. The game's overall gNERD of 17.20 sits near the top of the range for games on this slate and well above the historical 95th percentile of 14.76, driven by strong offensive environments from both clubs. The Dodgers bring elite power (1.16 barrel rate component) and a dominant bullpen (1.09 component), while the Phillies won four of six regular season matchups and edged Los Angeles for home-field advantage. Snell's 95.2 mph fastball and elite 15.8% swinging-strike rate produce a 75 xFIP-, while Luzardo counters with even better velocity at 96.4 mph and a quick 16.9-second pace that adds to watchability. The Phillies hold a 13-9 all-time playoff record against the Dodgers, adding historical weight to this Division Series rematch. Both lineups can mash, making this a high-stakes chess match between two playoff-caliber southpaws.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 95.0 10.0% -1.3 1.4 56.5 $341.0M 29.6 -3.0 2.45 2.51 — —
Z-score 1.33 1.16 -0.26 0.07 1.09 2.26 0.89 -0.14 0.12 0.26 — —
tNERD 1.33 1.16 -0.26 0.07 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.13 4.00 7.59

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 66.7 9.0% 7.9 1.2 27.9 $279.5M 29.5 29.0 2.92 2.69 — —
Z-score 0.94 0.34 1.08 0.06 -0.21 1.43 0.79 1.27 1.03 0.64 — —
tNERD 0.94 0.34 1.08 0.06 -0.21 0.00 0.00 1.27 0.52 0.32 4.00 8.32

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 75 15.3% 62.1% 95.2 mph 32 18.6s -19 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.58 2.23 -0.78 0.59 0.92 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 3.17 1.11 -0.39 0.59 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.26

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 79 13.5% 64.8% 96.4 mph 27 16.9s 13 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.34 1.36 0.42 1.14 -0.39 -1.31 — — — —
pNERD 2.69 0.68 0.21 1.14 0.39 0.66 0.65 0.00 3.80 10.22

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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 6:08p

Summary

This NLDS Game 2 is one of the highest-rated games in the dataset, with a gNERD of 16.43 that's well above the historical 95th percentile, driven by both teams bringing elite watchability and a fascinating pitching matchup. The Cubs will start left-hander Shota Imanaga while the Brewers use lefty Aaron Ashby as an opener, with Milwaukee looking to take a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning Game 1 by a 9-3 score. The Cubs' tNERD of 10.40 is the highest among today's games, bolstered by excellent baserunning and fielding, plus strong broadcaster ratings. Milwaukee's 9.72 tNERD benefits from the best baserunning in the dataset and a strong bullpen. Ashby's 8.94 pNERD is impressive, driven by a 72 xFIP- that translates to elite run prevention and 97.4 mph velocity. Imanaga's 3.79 pNERD reflects his below-average xFIP- of 109, though he allowed two runs over four innings in the Wild Card Series. Ashby started in only one of his 43 regular-season appearances, making his opener role intriguing. The Cubs won the season series 7-6, and this is their first playoff meeting as division rivals.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 71.9 10.0% 10.9 35.0 28.8 $197.7M 30.6 -6.0 3.01 3.15 — —
Z-score 1.01 1.16 1.52 1.46 -0.17 0.33 1.91 -0.27 1.22 1.62 — —
tNERD 1.01 1.16 1.52 1.46 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.81 4.00 10.40

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 50.3 6.7% 15.1 21.6 57.2 $112.2M 27.6 -26.0 2.66 2.56 — —
Z-score 0.71 -1.57 2.13 0.91 1.13 -0.82 -1.14 -1.15 0.53 0.37 — —
tNERD 0.71 -1.57 2.13 0.91 1.13 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 9.72

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 109 11.9% 67.6% 90.9 mph 31 19.0s -19 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.46 0.59 1.62 -1.38 0.66 0.38 — — — —
pNERD -0.92 0.30 0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.79

Aaron Ashby, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 72 10.2% 62.4% 97.4 mph 27 18.4s -20 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.77 -0.23 -0.63 1.60 -0.39 -0.10 — — — —
pNERD 3.53 -0.11 -0.32 1.60 0.39 0.05 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.94

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