MLB: What to watch on October 7, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14.7 | 1:08p | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Logan Gilbert | 10.2 | Jack Flaherty | 6.6 |
14.1 | 5:08p | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | New York Yankees | 8.5 | Shane Bieber | 7.8 | Carlos Rodón | 4.9 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers, 1:08p
Summary
This ALDS Game 3 between the Mariners and Tigers features two quality starters in a series knotted at one game apiece, with the gNERD score of 14.74 ranking at the top of today's slate and well above the 95th percentile historically. The series shifts to Detroit after Seattle evened things up in Game 2 behind Julio Rodríguez's heroics, setting up a pivotal matchup with Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty on the mound.
Gilbert brings an elite pNERD of 10.15, powered by an outstanding 70 xFIP- that ranks in the top tier of starting pitchers. His 95.4 mph velocity and strong swinging-strike rate make him a legitimate weapon, though he did lose his only previous postseason start in 2022 against Houston. Flaherty's 6.63 pNERD is solid, supported by an 88 xFIP-, though his 5.05 postseason ERA across 11 games suggests he's been hittable in October. Both pitchers carry a full luck component of 1.00, indicating they've underperformed their peripherals and could be due for better results.
The Mariners bring slightly better offensive metrics with 91.7 batting runs, while Detroit counters with superior baserunning and a younger roster. The Tigers' below-average bullpen (-0.92) could become a factor if Flaherty exits early. With playoff intensity high and two capable starters taking the mound in a tied series, this shapes up as a tightly contested game worth watching.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Seattle Mariners
Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.9 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Detroit Tigers
Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.3 | 3.6 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.83 |
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 70 | 15.5% | 66.3% | 95.4 mph | 28 | 20.8s | 20 | 0.0% | — | — |
Z-score | -1.89 | 2.33 | 1.05 | 0.68 | -0.13 | 1.84 | — | — | — | — |
pNERD | 3.77 | 1.16 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.13 | -0.92 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.15 |
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 88 | 11.3% | 63.6% | 92.9 mph | 29 | 18.2s | 25 | 0.0% | — | — |
Z-score | -0.80 | 0.30 | -0.12 | -0.46 | 0.13 | -0.26 | — | — | — | — |
pNERD | 1.60 | 0.15 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.63 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 5:08p
Summary
This ALDS Game 3 features a desperate Yankees team facing elimination after dropping the first two games in Toronto by a combined 23-8 score, with the Blue Jays' offense looking unstoppable against New York's pitching staff. Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, is making his first playoff start since returning from Tommy John surgery with just seven regular season appearances under his belt, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA. His pNERD of 7.80 reflects strong underlying metrics with an xFIP- of 80 and a brisk 16.8-second pace between pitches. Carlos Rodón went 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA during the regular season and was acquired by Toronto from Cleveland on July 31. His lower pNERD of 4.94 stems from a less impressive xFIP- of 93, though he's been serviceable enough to keep the Yankees competitive. The game's 14.07 gNERD sits well above the historical median of 10.10, driven by the Yankees' elite barrel rate (2.65 standard deviations above average) and both teams' strong batting runs. The Blue Jays have scored 23 runs in the first two games of the series, and with elimination looming, expect the Yankees to empty their bullpen early if needed, adding to the drama of a must-win situation.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Toronto Blue Jays
Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.6 | 38.5 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.88 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.88 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.94 |
New York Yankees
Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.7 | 6.3 | 26.3 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
Z-score | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 0.27 | -0.28 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
tNERD | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 0.27 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.46 |
Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays
xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 80 | 12.2% | 63.7% | 92.6 mph | 30 | 16.8s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
Z-score | -1.28 | 0.74 | -0.07 | -0.60 | 0.39 | -1.39 | — | — | — | — |
pNERD | 2.57 | 0.37 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.80 |
Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees
xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw stat | 93 | 12.4% | 62.6% | 93.8 mph | 32 | 18.5s | -17 | 0.0% | — | — |
Z-score | -0.50 | 0.83 | -0.57 | -0.05 | 0.92 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
pNERD | 1.00 | 0.42 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.94 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 6, 2025