Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on October 7, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
14.7 1:08p Seattle Mariners 5.9 Detroit Tigers 6.8 Logan Gilbert 10.2 Jack Flaherty 6.6
14.1 5:08p Toronto Blue Jays 6.9 New York Yankees 8.5 Shane Bieber 7.8 Carlos Rodón 4.9

Notes:

Detail

Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers, 1:08p

Summary

This ALDS Game 3 between the Mariners and Tigers features two quality starters in a series knotted at one game apiece, with the gNERD score of 14.74 ranking at the top of today's slate and well above the 95th percentile historically. The series shifts to Detroit after Seattle evened things up in Game 2 behind Julio Rodríguez's heroics, setting up a pivotal matchup with Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty on the mound.

Gilbert brings an elite pNERD of 10.15, powered by an outstanding 70 xFIP- that ranks in the top tier of starting pitchers. His 95.4 mph velocity and strong swinging-strike rate make him a legitimate weapon, though he did lose his only previous postseason start in 2022 against Houston. Flaherty's 6.63 pNERD is solid, supported by an 88 xFIP-, though his 5.05 postseason ERA across 11 games suggests he's been hittable in October. Both pitchers carry a full luck component of 1.00, indicating they've underperformed their peripherals and could be due for better results.

The Mariners bring slightly better offensive metrics with 91.7 batting runs, while Detroit counters with superior baserunning and a younger roster. The Tigers' below-average bullpen (-0.92) could become a factor if Flaherty exits early. With playoff intensity high and two capable starters taking the mound in a tied series, this shapes up as a tightly contested game worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 91.7 9.5% -2.8 -22.9 30.2 $152.8M 28.2 9.0 2.35 2.52
Z-score 1.28 0.75 -0.47 -0.93 -0.10 -0.27 -0.53 0.39 -0.07 0.28
tNERD 1.28 0.75 -0.47 -0.93 -0.10 0.27 0.53 0.39 0.00 0.14 4.00 5.86

Detroit Tigers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 18.8 9.4% 4.3 3.6 12.1 $148.2M 27.6 -19.0 2.74 2.64
Z-score 0.28 0.67 0.56 0.16 -0.92 -0.33 -1.14 -0.85 0.69 0.54
tNERD 0.28 0.67 0.56 0.16 -0.92 0.33 1.14 0.00 0.34 0.27 4.00 6.83

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 70 15.5% 66.3% 95.4 mph 28 20.8s 20 0.0%
Z-score -1.89 2.33 1.05 0.68 -0.13 1.84
pNERD 3.77 1.16 0.52 0.68 0.13 -0.92 1.00 0.00 3.80 10.15

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 88 11.3% 63.6% 92.9 mph 29 18.2s 25 0.0%
Z-score -0.80 0.30 -0.12 -0.46 0.13 -0.26
pNERD 1.60 0.15 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.00 3.80 6.63

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 5:08p

Summary

This ALDS Game 3 features a desperate Yankees team facing elimination after dropping the first two games in Toronto by a combined 23-8 score, with the Blue Jays' offense looking unstoppable against New York's pitching staff. Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, is making his first playoff start since returning from Tommy John surgery with just seven regular season appearances under his belt, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA. His pNERD of 7.80 reflects strong underlying metrics with an xFIP- of 80 and a brisk 16.8-second pace between pitches. Carlos Rodón went 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA during the regular season and was acquired by Toronto from Cleveland on July 31. His lower pNERD of 4.94 stems from a less impressive xFIP- of 93, though he's been serviceable enough to keep the Yankees competitive. The game's 14.07 gNERD sits well above the historical median of 10.10, driven by the Yankees' elite barrel rate (2.65 standard deviations above average) and both teams' strong batting runs. The Blue Jays have scored 23 runs in the first two games of the series, and with elimination looming, expect the Yankees to empty their bullpen early if needed, adding to the drama of a must-win situation.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 90.8 8.1% -5.6 38.5 30.3 $248.4M 29.6 17.0 3.10 2.39
Z-score 1.27 -0.41 -0.88 1.61 -0.10 1.01 0.89 0.74 1.40 0.01
tNERD 1.27 -0.41 -0.88 1.61 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.70 0.00 4.00 6.94

New York Yankees

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 137.2 11.8% -4.7 6.3 26.3 $290.9M 29.1 15.0 2.08 2.22
Z-score 1.91 2.65 -0.75 0.27 -0.28 1.58 0.38 0.65 -0.61 -0.36
tNERD 1.91 2.65 -0.75 0.27 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.46

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 80 12.2% 63.7% 92.6 mph 30 16.8s 8 0.0%
Z-score -1.28 0.74 -0.07 -0.60 0.39 -1.39
pNERD 2.57 0.37 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.40 0.00 3.80 7.80

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 93 12.4% 62.6% 93.8 mph 32 18.5s -17 0.0%
Z-score -0.50 0.83 -0.57 -0.05 0.92 -0.02
pNERD 1.00 0.42 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.94

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