MLB: What to watch on October 8, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.1 | 4:08p | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | New York Yankees | 8.5 | Louis Varland | 10.8 | Cam Schlittler | 8.0 |
| 15.5 | 2:08p | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.7 | Chicago Cubs | 10.4 | Quinn Priester | 6.5 | Jameson Taillon | 4.3 |
| 15.2 | 6:08p | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | Aaron Nola | 5.6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 8.9 |
| 11.4 | 12:08p | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Bryce Miller | 4.2 | Casey Mize | 5.9 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 4:08p
Summary
This is must-watch baseball as the Yankees face elimination with their season on the line, and both teams are sending out pitchers who should make this a high-scoring affair. The Yankees rallied from five runs down to win Game 3 on Tuesday 9-6, pulling to 2-1 in this best-of-five ALDS, with Aaron Judge hitting .636 in the series with five RBIs.
The gNERD score of 17.11 ranks as the highest of all games today and sits near the 95th percentile historically, driven by strong pitching watchability scores. Louis Varland's pNERD of 10.81 is the top pitcher score today, boosted by his 98 mph velocity and a 74 xFIP- that indicates excellent skill. Varland entered Game 3 in relief and surrendered a three-run homer to Judge, so there's immediate revenge potential here. Cam Schlittler brings an 8.01 pNERD with similar velocity, though he threw eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against Boston in his last start. Both pitchers are young and relatively inexperienced, which should benefit the Yankees' powerful lineup that posted 137.2 batting runs with a 2.65 barrel rate z-score. The Blue Jays counter with 90.8 batting runs and elite fielding that's 1.61 standard deviations above average. The elimination game stakes combined with two teams capable of offensive explosions makes this essential viewing.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.6 | 38.6 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.88 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.88 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.94 |
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 137.2 | 11.8% | -4.7 | 6.3 | 26.3 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 15.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.65 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.91 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 0.28 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.46 |
Louis Varland, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 74 | 13.1% | 67.3% | 98.0 mph | 27 | 18.2s | -1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.65 | 1.17 | 1.47 | 1.87 | -0.39 | -0.26 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.29 | 0.59 | 0.74 | 1.87 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.81 |
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 11.1% | 65.8% | 98.0 mph | 24 | 20.3s | -17 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.21 | 0.82 | 1.87 | -1.18 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.10 | 0.41 | 1.87 | 1.18 | -0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.01 |
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 2:08p
Summary
This NLDS elimination game between two NL Central rivals packs serious watchability, with a gNERD of 15.47 that sits comfortably in the top tier of games both historically and today, driven by two strong team scores and a playoff atmosphere where the Brewers can sweep. The Brewers hold a commanding 2-0 series lead and can advance to the NLCS with a win, while the desperate Cubs will seek a path to survival at Wrigley Field. Both teams earned elite tNERD scores—Milwaukee's 9.72 and Chicago's 10.40—fueled by strong all-around play. The Cubs excel in batting (71.9 runs above average), barrel rate, fielding, and baserunning, plus they boast the day's best broadcaster ratings. The Brewers counter with excellent baserunning (15.1 runs, z-score of 2.13) and a dominant bullpen (57.2 runs). Quinn Priester brings a solid 6.47 pNERD with a 92 xFIP- and works quickly at 16.7 seconds per pitch, while Priester posted a 3.32 ERA and 3.81 xFIP this season. Jameson Taillon's 4.35 pNERD reflects below-average swing-and-miss stuff but good strike-throwing ability. The Brewers have put 16 runs on the board in consecutive convincing wins, making this a compelling watch as Chicago fights to avoid elimination.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 50.3 | 6.7% | 15.1 | 21.6 | 57.2 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -26.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.13 | 0.91 | 1.13 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.15 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.13 | 0.91 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 9.72 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71.9 | 10.0% | 10.9 | 35.0 | 28.8 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -6.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.52 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.27 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.52 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.40 |
Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 10.2% | 62.7% | 93.9 mph | 24 | 16.7s | -13 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.56 | -0.23 | -0.50 | -0.00 | -1.18 | -1.48 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.12 | -0.11 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 1.18 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.47 |
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 105 | 9.2% | 67.4% | 92.3 mph | 33 | 17.1s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.22 | -0.71 | 1.54 | -0.73 | 1.18 | -1.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.44 | -0.35 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.35 |
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:08p
Summary
This NLDS elimination game pits a struggling Aaron Nola against a dominant Yoshinobu Yamamoto with the Phillies facing a sweep, making it compelling for the high stakes rather than the pitching matchup itself. The Dodgers lead the series 2-0 and can close out the Phillies, who are desperate to keep their season alive after their top three hitters went a combined 2 for 21 with zero extra-base hits through the first two games.
The gNERD score of 15.22 sits comfortably above today's average of 14.80 and well above the historical median of 10.10, driven by strong offensive teams and a significant pitching advantage for the Dodgers. Yamamoto's pNERD of 8.89 reflects his excellent 74 xFIP- and elite swinging-strike rate, and he delivered 6⅔ shutout innings against the Reds in the Wild Card Series. Nola's pedestrian 5.64 pNERD tells a concerning story - he posted a career-high 6.01 xFIP equivalent this season and works at a glacially slow pace that drags down watchability. The Phillies' substantial luck component of 1.27 suggests they've underperformed their talent, though that matters little if they can't solve Yamamoto. Both teams bring strong batting numbers, with the Dodgers boasting superior barrel rate and bullpen runs. The combination of elimination drama and a clear pitching mismatch makes this worth watching despite Nola's limitations.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 66.7 | 9.0% | 7.9 | 1.2 | 27.9 | $279.5M | 29.5 | 29.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.94 | 0.34 | 1.08 | 0.06 | -0.21 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.94 | 0.34 | 1.08 | 0.06 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 8.32 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.0 | 10.0% | -1.3 | 1.4 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.59 |
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 11.2% | 65.1% | 91.5 mph | 32 | 20.8s | 51 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.26 | 0.54 | -1.10 | 0.92 | 1.84 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.92 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.64 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 74 | 12.6% | 64.0% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 18.5s | -15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.65 | 0.93 | 0.07 | 0.64 | -0.65 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.29 | 0.46 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.89 |
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers, 12:08p
Summary
This ALDS Game 4 offers the highest stakes imaginable—an elimination game where the Mariners hold a 2-1 series lead and can advance with a win while the Tigers fight to stave off elimination—but the pitching matchup and underlying metrics suggest it won't be particularly thrilling baseball. The gNERD of 11.39 sits well below today's average of 14.80 and barely cracks the historical median, making this the least watchable game on the slate despite the postseason drama.
Both starters bring modest pNERD scores, with Bryce Miller at 4.24 and Casey Mize at 5.85. Miller's 110 xFIP- indicates below-average effectiveness, and his substantial luck component of 1.00 suggests he's been fortunate to perform as well as he has. Mize offers slightly better underlying numbers with a 95 xFIP- and works at a quicker pace, but neither pitcher profiles as dominant. The team metrics are similarly uninspiring, with both tNERD scores hovering around the historical mean. Seattle's batting has been solid (91.7 runs above average), but their fielding has been poor. Detroit gets a boost from being the youngest team in baseball, though their bullpen ranks near the bottom. The Mariners dominated Game 3 with an 8-4 victory, and the pressure falls squarely on Detroit to extend the series.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.9 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.3 | 3.6 | 12.1 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.85 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.16 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.83 |
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 110 | 10.6% | 64.6% | 94.8 mph | 26 | 20.3s | 38 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.52 | -0.03 | 0.31 | 0.41 | -0.65 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.05 | -0.02 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.65 | -0.72 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.24 |
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95 | 10.8% | 65.9% | 94.7 mph | 28 | 17.7s | -1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.38 | 0.06 | 0.87 | 0.36 | -0.13 | -0.67 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.76 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.85 |