MLB: What to watch on October 10, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.7 | 5:08p | Detroit Tigers | 6.8 | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Tarik Skubal | 13.4 | George Kirby | 9.3 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners, 5:08p
Summary
This is a winner-take-all Game 5 showdown featuring reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and the gNERD score of 17.72 reflects that—landing near the top of the historical range and well above the typical game. The stakes couldn't be higher after the Tigers' stunning 9-3 Game 4 victory forced this decisive matchup back at T-Mobile Park, where Seattle is 27-10 since the All-Star break. Skubal's pNERD of 13.40 is among the best you'll see, driven by an elite xFIP- of 63 and exceptional swinging-strike and overall strike rates that translate to dominant strikeout stuff. His 97.5 mph average velocity and quick 17.6-second pace keep hitters uncomfortable. George Kirby counters with his own strong pNERD of 9.33, supported by a 77 xFIP- and 96.2 mph heat, though his luck component of 1.00 suggests he's been outperforming his peripherals. Both teams bring solid offensive metrics—Seattle leads in batting runs (91.7) and barrel rate, while Detroit's younger roster (age component of 1.14) has been scrappy throughout the postseason. The Mariners need to overcome their fielding deficiencies (-22.8 runs), while Detroit's bullpen weakness could be exposed in a tight game. It's elite pitching in an elimination game—exactly what October baseball should be.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.8 | 9.4% | 4.3 | 3.7 | 12.2 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -19.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.17 | -0.92 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.84 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.17 | -0.92 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.84 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.8 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.87 |
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 63 | 16.6% | 70.3% | 97.5 mph | 28 | 17.6s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.31 | 2.86 | 2.80 | 1.65 | -0.13 | -0.75 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.62 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.65 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 13.40 |
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 77 | 11.8% | 65.2% | 96.2 mph | 27 | 19.5s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.46 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.05 | -0.39 | 0.79 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.93 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1.05 | 0.39 | -0.39 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.33 |