MLB: What to watch on October 12, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 5:03p | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | Bryce Miller | 4.2 | Kevin Gausman | 5.9 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 5:03p
Summary
This is Game 1 of the ALCS, with the top two seeds in the American League facing off, and the gNERD score of 11.45 sits comfortably above the historical median of 10.10, suggesting solid watchability for a high-stakes playoff opener. The Blue Jays and Mariners came into existence at the same time, but they have never met with stakes like these in play as the two strongest division champs in the AL vie to end long World Series droughts. Kevin Gausman brings the stronger pNERD at 5.87, anchored by a 90 xFIP- that translates to elite run prevention and strong command metrics. Bryce Miller's 4.24 pNERD reflects a less impressive 110 xFIP-, though his substantial luck component of 1.00 suggests he's been underperforming his peripherals. Both teams bring strong offensive profiles with batting runs over 90, while Toronto's fielding advantage (38.6 runs versus Seattle's -22.8) provides a clear defensive edge. The Mariners have only one day off after their 15-inning marathon Game 5 against Detroit, which could impact their bullpen depth. The Blue Jays' broadcaster rating also adds a modest boost to the viewing experience. With playoff intensity amplifying every pitch, this matchup delivers a respectable watchability score.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.9 | -22.8 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.6 | 38.6 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.94 |
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 110 | 10.6% | 64.6% | 94.8 mph | 26 | 20.3s | 38 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.52 | -0.03 | 0.31 | 0.41 | -0.65 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.05 | -0.02 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.65 | -0.72 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.24 |
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 12.6% | 67.4% | 94.5 mph | 34 | 20.5s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.93 | 1.53 | 0.27 | 1.44 | 1.60 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 0.00 | -0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.87 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 11, 2025