MLB: What to watch on October 15, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.0 | 5:08p | Toronto Blue Jays | 7.0 | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Shane Bieber | 7.8 | George Kirby | 9.3 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners, 5:08p
Summary
This ALCS Game 3 matchup features two strong pitchers in a postseason series where the Mariners already hold a commanding 2-0 lead, making it a must-watch for playoff intensity even if the starting pitchers aren't exactly overpowering. Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, starts for Toronto against George Kirby, and the Mariners lead the series 2-0 after winning both games in Toronto. The gNERD score of 14.97 sits well above the historical mean of 10.11 and near the 95th percentile, driven by elite pitcher scores that both rank in the 95th percentile or higher historically. Kirby's pNERD of 9.33 reflects his excellent 77 xFIP- and strong velocity at 96.2 mph, though he has a substantial luck component suggesting he's underperformed his peripherals. Bieber threw 2.2 innings in his last start, allowing three runs on five hits against the Yankees in the ALDS, and his 7.80 pNERD shows solid skills with an 80 xFIP- and quick 16.8-second pace. Both teams bring strong batting numbers—Toronto and Seattle rank first and second in batting runs—while Toronto's elite fielding (1.61 component) contrasts with Seattle's defensive struggles. The Blue Jays need this win to avoid falling into a 3-0 hole, adding urgency to an already compelling pitching matchup.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.5 | 38.6 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.95 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.8 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80 | 12.2% | 63.7% | 92.6 mph | 30 | 16.8s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.28 | 0.74 | -0.07 | -0.60 | 0.39 | -1.39 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.57 | 0.37 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.80 |
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 77 | 11.8% | 65.2% | 96.2 mph | 27 | 19.5s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.46 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.05 | -0.39 | 0.79 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.93 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1.05 | 0.39 | -0.39 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.33 |