MLB: What to watch on October 16, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.8 | 3:08p | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.7 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | TBD | No data | Tyler Glasnow | 5.2 |
| 11.2 | 5:33p | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Max Scherzer | 4.1 | Luis Castillo | 5.5 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 3:08p
Summary
This NLCS Game 3 matchup features the highest gNERD score among today's games at 13.77, fueled by the Brewers' exceptional team metrics and a compelling series context where Milwaukee swept LA six times in July but now trails 0-2 in the playoffs. The series shifts to Los Angeles with the Dodgers holding a 2-0 series lead, and the Brewers facing elimination pressure. The Brewers bring the day's top tNERD at 9.71, driven by strong baserunning (2.12 component) and solid contributions across bullpen and fielding. Their young, low-payroll roster punches above its weight. The Dodgers counter with elite batting (95.1 runs above average) and barrel rate (1.16 component), though their baserunning lags. Tyler Glasnow takes the mound with a 5.23 pNERD, featuring elite velocity at 95.9 mph and a strong xFIP- of 90, though his strike percentage component is notably negative. The Brewers' starter remains undecided, adding uncertainty. Milwaukee's ability to generate offense against LA's high-powered lineup will be critical, especially after outscoring the Dodgers 31-16 during their six regular-season wins. The combination of playoff desperation and strong underlying metrics makes this a compelling watch.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 50.4 | 6.7% | 15.0 | 21.7 | 57.2 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -26.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.13 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.15 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 9.71 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.1 | 10.0% | -1.3 | 1.5 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.60 |
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 11.0% | 60.2% | 95.9 mph | 31 | 18.8s | -14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.16 | -1.62 | 0.91 | 0.66 | 0.22 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.08 | -0.81 | 0.91 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.23 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners, 5:33p
Summary
This ALCS Game 4 matchup features two veteran right-handers with contrasting recent form as Seattle looks to take a commanding 3-1 series lead after Toronto's 13-4 blowout in Game 3. Max Scherzer is set to make his first playoff start in a Toronto uniform, though the 41-year-old brings concerning numbers after going 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his final six starts of the 2025 season. His pNERD of 4.07 reflects middling watchability, with a luck component suggesting he's been somewhat unfortunate, though his xFIP- of 109 indicates below-average effectiveness. Luis Castillo went 11-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 32 regular-season starts, and he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the postseason, pitching six scoreless innings against Detroit. His pNERD of 5.46 is the higher of the two, backed by solid peripherals including better velocity and a faster pace. The gNERD of 11.17 sits right at the low end of games today but slightly above the historical median, making this a moderately watchable contest. Both teams show strong batting runs but diverge elsewhere—Toronto's fielding (1.60 component) contrasts sharply with Seattle's defensive struggles (-0.93), while the Mariners hold an edge in barrel rate. The postseason stakes elevate what would otherwise be a fairly average regular season matchup.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.5 | 38.6 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.95 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.8 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.87 |
Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 109 | 10.7% | 66.5% | 93.6 mph | 40 | 19.2s | 18 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.46 | 0.01 | 1.12 | -0.14 | 3.01 | 0.55 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.92 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.07 |
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 11.4% | 65.2% | 95.0 mph | 32 | 17.8s | -6 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.20 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.92 | -0.59 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.46 |