MLB: What to watch on October 17, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.7 | 5:38p | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.7 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | Jose Quintana | -0.3 | Shohei Ohtani | 12.5 |
| 11.5 | 3:08p | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Kevin Gausman | 5.9 | Bryce Miller | 4.2 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 5:38p
Summary
Shohei Ohtani on the mound with a sweep in reach is a pretty easy “yes” for your eyeballs. The Dodgers lead the NLCS 3–0 and hand Game 4 to Ohtani, while Milwaukee likely rides veteran Jose Quintana and hopes Jackson Chourio (cramp) is good to go. At a gNERD of 14.74, this sits at the top of the slate and near the historic 95th percentile, and the reasons track: Ohtani’s top-shelf pNERD (12.49) and a 60 xFIP- scream bat-missing stuff, while Quintana’s pNERD (-0.29) and 119 xFIP- suggest the underdog needs soft contact and prayers. Milwaukee’s tNERD is the day’s high thanks to baserunning, defense, and a sturdy pen, but the Dodgers counter with barrel-fueled offense and a similarly strong bullpen. In this series, that pen has been nails and the Brewers’ bats have withered—three straight one-run outputs and just 10 total hits—so every Ohtani whiff will feel amplified. If you want star power plus elimination stakes, this is the watch: Ohtani’s velocity (near triple digits), the Dodgers’ power/pen edge, and Milwaukee’s chaos-on-the-bases recipe all collide—with Quintana’s craftiness left to keep it respectable long enough for someone in navy to finally square one up.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 50.4 | 6.7% | 15.1 | 21.7 | 57.2 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -26.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.13 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.15 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 9.72 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.1 | 10.0% | -1.3 | 0.8 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.05 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.05 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.56 |
Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 119 | 6.9% | 61.0% | 90.6 mph | 36 | 19.6s | -24 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.06 | -1.81 | -1.24 | -1.51 | 1.96 | 0.87 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.13 | -0.91 | -0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | -0.29 |
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 60 | 14.2% | 65.7% | 98.1 mph | 30 | 18.3s | 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.49 | 1.70 | 0.81 | 1.92 | 0.39 | -0.18 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.98 | 0.85 | 0.40 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.49 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners, 3:08p
Summary
ALCS deadlock, Bryce Miller back on the bump with Bryan Woo lurking, and Kevin Gausman drawing the counterpunch: this is less a pitcher’s duel than a test of whose plan survives contact. Toronto’s bats just hung 21 runs in two games at T‑Mobile; Seattle’s answer is Miller—who won Game 1—while Woo, fresh off a pec strain, shifts to bullpen duty.
On the NERD front, this grades as the day’s floor gNERD (11.46) but still lands near the historic median, and the ingredients are classic: Gausman’s above‑average pNERD (5.87) rides a tidy xFIP- of 90, while Miller’s below‑average pNERD (4.24) and 110 xFIP- hint at more traffic and therefore more entertainment per pitch. Toronto’s higher tNERD (6.95) leans on elite gloves (big fielding runs), whereas Seattle brings real thump (better barrel rate), a contrast that usually produces watchable batted‑ball theater. With Anthony Santander off the roster and Joey Loperfido in, Toronto mixes power with platoon shuffles; Seattle, tied 2‑2 in the series, trusts Miller again after his six efficient innings in the opener and prepares Woo as a fireman. Gausman, meanwhile, was a hard‑luck loser in Game 1 and returns on script. If you like strategy layered over stuff, this rates better than its modest gNERD suggests.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.5 | 38.6 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.95 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.8 | -22.8 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 12.6% | 67.4% | 94.5 mph | 34 | 20.5s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.93 | 1.53 | 0.27 | 1.44 | 1.60 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 0.00 | -0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.87 |
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 110 | 10.6% | 64.6% | 94.8 mph | 26 | 20.3s | 38 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.52 | -0.03 | 0.31 | 0.41 | -0.65 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.05 | -0.02 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.65 | -0.72 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.24 |