Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on October 19, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
14.0 5:03p Seattle Mariners 5.9 Toronto Blue Jays 6.9 Logan Gilbert 10.2 Trey Yesavage No data

Notes:

Detail

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 5:03p

Summary

It’s a gNERD headliner: ALCS Game 6 with Seattle one win from its first World Series, matching ace-caliber Logan Gilbert against Toronto’s headline rookie Trey Yesavage. Throw in a split-finger that eats hitters and a bruised-but-determined George Springer subplot, and the remote basically chooses itself.

Gilbert’s pNERD 10.15 sits near the top of our historical range, driven by an elite 70 xFIP- and 95.4 mph velocity; after a shortened, command-wobbly Game 2 that followed an odd bullpen cameo, he’s back on normal rest for a plausible bounce-back. Yesavage’s pNERD shows 0 only because the model lacks reps; the résumé doesn’t: 11 strikeouts in 5.1 no-hit ALDS innings and a franchise-record nine K in his debut, with the splitter fueling 19 whiffs.

The team contrast helps the watchability: Seattle brings real thump (91.7 Batting Runs, 9.5% barrel rate) but wobbly leather, while Toronto’s higher tNERD is buoyed by elite defense (+38.6 Fielding Runs). The subplot matters, too: Springer’s right-knee contusion returned clean X-rays, and he’s expected to try to go.

Given a gNERD of 13.98—well above the historical median and the clear top of today’s slate—an ace-versus-unknown showdown with series stakes is exactly the kind of weird, tense baseball you make time for.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 91.7 9.5% -2.9 -22.8 30.2 $152.8M 28.2 9.0 2.35 2.52
Z-score 1.28 0.75 -0.48 -0.93 -0.10 -0.27 -0.53 0.39 -0.07 0.28
tNERD 1.28 0.75 -0.48 -0.93 -0.10 0.27 0.53 0.39 0.00 0.14 4.00 5.86

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 90.8 8.1% -5.6 38.6 30.3 $248.4M 29.6 17.0 3.10 2.39
Z-score 1.27 -0.41 -0.87 1.61 -0.10 1.01 0.89 0.74 1.40 0.01
tNERD 1.27 -0.41 -0.87 1.61 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.70 0.00 4.00 6.94

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 70 15.5% 66.3% 95.4 mph 28 20.8s 20 0.0%
Z-score -1.89 2.33 1.05 0.68 -0.13 1.84
pNERD 3.77 1.16 0.52 0.68 0.13 -0.92 1.00 0.00 3.80 10.15

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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