MLB: What to watch on October 20, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.0 | 5:10p | Seattle Mariners | 5.9 | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | George Kirby | 9.3 | Shane Bieber | 7.8 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 5:10p
Summary
Game 7 gives you a clean, high-stakes contrast: George Kirby’s precision and power versus Shane Bieber’s comeback guile, with Toronto’s gloves poised to matter again. It’s the top watchability play on the board, and not just because the gNERD (14.96) sits above the 95th percentile of historical games—this one also carries fresh, tangible storylines.
Kirby’s elite skill set (pNERD 9.33; xFIP- 77; upper-90s velo; elite strike rate) screams “ace,” even if his prior start in this matchup was a clunker (8 ER in 4 IP). Bieber countered with six strong, eight Ks in that Game 3 win, and he’s the short-rest redemption arc Toronto traded for in July after Tommy John—exactly this moment. Toronto just forced this decider 6-2 by turning three inning-ending double plays (two with the bases loaded) while Seattle booted three balls; Vlad Jr. tied the franchise postseason HR mark and Addison Barger kept raking. Expect those gloves to loom again given the Jays’ sterling recent run prevention. On the model side, Kirby’s miss-bat/low-walk profile edges Bieber (xFIP- 80), but Bieber’s quick pace and form plus a sharper Jays defense narrow it, and both pens grade as merely fine—so every extra out the starters bank is gold.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91.7 | 9.5% | -2.9 | -22.8 | 30.2 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 9.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 0.75 | -0.48 | -0.93 | -0.10 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 5.86 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.6 | 38.6 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.95 |
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 77 | 11.8% | 65.2% | 96.2 mph | 27 | 19.5s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.46 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 1.05 | -0.39 | 0.79 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.93 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1.05 | 0.39 | -0.39 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.33 |
Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80 | 12.2% | 63.7% | 92.6 mph | 30 | 16.8s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.28 | 0.74 | -0.07 | -0.60 | 0.39 | -1.39 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.57 | 0.37 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.80 |