MLB: What to watch on October 28, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.4 | 5:00p | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.9 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | Shane Bieber | 7.8 | Shohei Ohtani | 12.5 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 5:00p
Summary
Shohei Ohtani’s first World Series start on the mound comes after he reached base nine times in an 18‑inning epic; if you enjoy singular talent stretching the edges of plausibility, this is your ticket. Pair that with Shane Bieber’s command-forward profile and two capable supporting casts, and the gNERD all but waves you in.
At 17.42, this gNERD sits well above the historical 95th percentile, driven by a premium pNERD duel: Ohtani (12.49, power stuff with xFIP- 60 and 98.1 mph) versus Bieber (7.80, tidy xFIP- 80 and quick pace). Dodgers’ offense brings real thump (barrel rate strength), while Toronto contributes elite run prevention via defense. Both bullpens were thoroughly raided in the 18‑inning marathon, so starter length and strike‑throwing matter more than usual; Ohtani is still slated to go, and Toronto’s George Springer exited the last game with a right‑side issue worth monitoring.
If you like novelty with substance, Ohtani already authored a 10‑K, three‑homer two‑way postseason game, and Bieber—traded to Toronto midseason—has supplied enough swing‑and‑miss to keep this from becoming a parade of early relievers. High skill at the top, thin relief behind it, and contrasting team strengths explain why this grades as appointment viewing rather than background noise.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90.8 | 8.1% | -5.6 | 38.7 | 30.3 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 17.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.27 | -0.41 | -0.87 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.95 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.1 | 10.0% | -1.4 | 1.6 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.08 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.08 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.59 |
Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80 | 12.2% | 63.7% | 92.6 mph | 30 | 16.8s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.28 | 0.74 | -0.07 | -0.60 | 0.39 | -1.39 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.57 | 0.37 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.80 |
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 60 | 14.2% | 65.7% | 98.1 mph | 30 | 18.3s | 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.49 | 1.70 | 0.81 | 1.92 | 0.39 | -0.18 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.98 | 0.85 | 0.40 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.49 |