Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on October 31, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
14.6 5:00p Los Angeles Dodgers 7.6 Toronto Blue Jays 7.0 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 8.9 Kevin Gausman 5.9

Notes:

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 5:00p

Summary

High stakes, high octane: Toronto tries to finish a 3-2 series behind Kevin Gausman while Yoshinobu Yamamoto, fresh off a historic CG, aims to drag this thing to the limit. With a gNERD of 14.65—top among today’s slate and brushing the 95th percentile historically—this is appointment baseball, not background noise.

The model likes this because the pitching carries real bite: Yamamoto’s pNERD (8.89) dwarfs Gausman’s (5.87), backed by a sharper xFIP- (74 vs. 90) and better bat-missing, plus the tantalizing note that he just threw the first World Series complete game since 2015 and could stack another. Off the field-tilt, Toronto holds the hammer, starting Gausman at home with the champagne on ice, but L.A. has hinted at creative urgency—including a just-in-case Ohtani relief cameo—which only heightens the drama. The contrasting team profiles fit the eye test: Dodgers bring barrels and a sturdy pen, Jays counter with elite gloves and, lately, timely thunder, as Game 5’s rookie K record and lightning-strike opening homers reminded everyone. And yes, it’s Yamamoto–Gausman again, a clean narrative loop for Game 6.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 95.1 10.0% -1.2 0.8 56.5 $341.0M 29.6 -3.0 2.45 2.51
Z-score 1.33 1.16 -0.24 0.05 1.09 2.26 0.89 -0.14 0.12 0.26
tNERD 1.33 1.16 -0.24 0.05 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.13 4.00 7.58

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 90.8 8.1% -5.5 38.6 30.3 $248.4M 29.6 17.0 3.10 2.39
Z-score 1.27 -0.41 -0.86 1.61 -0.10 1.01 0.89 0.74 1.40 0.01
tNERD 1.27 -0.41 -0.86 1.61 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.70 0.00 4.00 6.96

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 74 12.6% 64.0% 95.3 mph 26 18.5s -15 0.0%
Z-score -1.65 0.93 0.07 0.64 -0.65 -0.02
pNERD 3.29 0.46 0.03 0.64 0.65 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.89

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 90 12.6% 67.4% 94.5 mph 34 20.5s -2 0.0%
Z-score -0.68 0.93 1.53 0.27 1.44 1.60
pNERD 1.36 0.46 0.77 0.27 0.00 -0.80 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.87

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