MLB: What to watch on March 28, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p
Summary
This is the best watchability bet on today’s slate, and unlike some spreadsheet darlings it comes with actual noise: the series is split, Seattle has already launched six homers in two games, and Cleveland’s Chase DeLauter has opened 2026 by treating “easing in” as optional. The model is missing pNERD data on both starters, but the game still has a clear shape: Seattle’s power against Cleveland’s young, annoyingly competent roster.
Cleveland’s 8.81 tNERD fits a club that keeps manufacturing useful players, and DeLauter adds a real subplot after becoming one of the few players ever to make his MLB debut in the postseason. Seattle’s 6.67 tNERD is being carried by real thump, not vibes, and the lineup still orbits Cal Raleigh after last year’s thoroughly impolite 60-homer season.
Woo is the real draw on the mound: after a 2025 line of 186 2/3 innings, a 3.07 FIP and 1.74 BB/9, he looks like the adult in the room, especially with Bryce Miller and J.P. Crawford on the shelf. Cantillo is more curiosity watch than proven anchor, but a worthwhile one; Cleveland spent spring sharpening his slider, his changeup held hitters to a .165 average with a 49.4% whiff rate last year, and he finished September with a 1.55 ERA over five starts.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.1 | 10.4% | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | $102.3M | 27.5 | 2.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 0.06 | -0.23 | -0.95 | -1.25 | 1.02 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 0.06 | -0.23 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 8.81 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 2.4 | 23.5% | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 0.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.70 | 2.30 | -0.90 | -0.15 | -0.23 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.70 | 2.30 | -0.90 | -0.15 | -0.23 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 6.67 |
Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians
No detailed stats available
Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
No detailed stats available
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p
Summary
This is a sneaky good watch: not because the pitching matchup has marquee billing, but because the game lands in the upper half of today’s slate and comes with enough roster intrigue to stay lively. Milwaukee is the cleaner draw, though Jackson Chourio beginning the season on the injured list with a fractured left hand trims some of the usual Brewers shine.
Chicago’s tNERD works as a case for productive disorder: the White Sox have real thump in their barrel-rate profile, and the lineup has been remade around Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Luisangel Acuña after the Luis Robert Jr. trade, with Kyle Teel already sidelined by a hamstring strain. Neither starter gets pNERD help because the model has no detail yet, but Chad Patrick is more interesting than a zero suggests after 119.2 innings and 127 strikeouts as a rookie in 2025, while Sean Burke’s 134.1 innings and 133 strikeouts came with a 1.44 WHIP, which is another way of saying he tends to invite guests. The Brewers still counter with William Contreras, Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, whose OPS has climbed three straight seasons, so this has a fair chance to become a competent young-starter duel that eventually hands the script to Chicago’s shakier bullpen.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.3 | 18.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.1 | $79.0M | 27.5 | 1.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.39 | 1.47 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -1.61 | -1.26 | -1.25 | 0.51 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.39 | 1.47 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -1.61 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 6.72 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 5.7 | 9.4% | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -3.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.67 | 0.09 | -1.33 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.53 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.67 | 0.09 | -1.33 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 6.98 |
Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox
No detailed stats available
Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers
No detailed stats available
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p
Summary
This is watchable less as a pristine pitching duel than as a chance to watch baseball’s luxury model idle menacingly in the driveway. The Dodgers have already pocketed the first two games of the series, scoring 13 runs with four homers, so the gaudy Los Angeles tNERD does not appear to be a spreadsheet hallucination.
An 11.39 gNERD lands comfortably above the historical median and a bit above today’s average, but most of that juice comes from the Dodgers being absurdly well-appointed: their team NERD is the best on the slate, and the real roster got even sillier after adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to a club trying for a third straight championship. Arizona’s 2.11 tNERD fits a thinner entertainment profile — less thump, less chaos on the bases — and the lineup is also operating without Lourdes Gurriel Jr., while Merrill Kelly’s back issue has already trimmed the pitching depth. With both starters carrying pNERD zeros, Tyler Glasnow is still the more interesting unknown simply because he’s pitching after last season’s shoulder interruption; Eduardo Rodriguez feels more like the setup than the main act.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.8 | 4.5% | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.6 | $189.5M | 29.5 | 0.0 | 2.19 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -0.67 | -1.33 | 1.11 | -0.46 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 0.00 | -0.39 | -0.99 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.53 | -0.67 | -1.33 | 1.11 | -0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.8 | 17.3% | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.7 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.53 | 1.33 | 0.41 | 2.16 | 2.06 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -1.53 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.53 | 1.33 | 0.41 | 2.16 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 10.67 |
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
No detailed stats available
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
No detailed stats available
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 4:10p
Summary
This is a better watch than the uniforms suggest: the model likes it because the Angels have arrived with a lively lineup, and Houston is already down 0-2 at home. The pNERD zeros mean the spreadsheet is shrugging, but Reid Detmers and Cristian Javier are at least reclamation cases rather than random placeholders.
The 11.39 gNERD sits above today’s average and a touch above the historical median, and most of that juice comes from the Angels’ gaudy 9.43 tNERD; admittedly, some of that halo is a hefty luck boost, so this may be a slightly shinier package than the underlying metal. Los Angeles has still earned the attention so far: Mike Trout came into 2026 healthy enough to reclaim center field, the Angels have taken the first two games, and through the series they’ve hit .278/.388/.514 with five homers while Trout is already sitting on two. Houston has opened at .169 with two runs and 25 strikeouts, and the bullpen is missing Josh Hader. Detmers is trying to convert a strong 2025 relief season back into starting, while Javier is still working through his post-Tommy John chapter.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)
Los Angeles Angels
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 5.8 | 10.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | $203.8M | 29.2 | 6.0 | 2.59 | 2.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.70 | 0.28 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 1.22 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 3.05 | 0.40 | -0.80 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.70 | 0.28 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 9.43 |
Houston Astros
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -3.7 | 4.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2.7 | $221.9M | 29.0 | 2.0 | 2.17 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.09 | -0.71 | 2.14 | 0.06 | -2.07 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 1.02 | -0.42 | -0.84 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.09 | -0.71 | 2.14 | 0.06 | -2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.35 |
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
No detailed stats available
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
No detailed stats available
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p
Summary
This is sturdier than “Rockies at Marlins” sounds: Miami took the opener 2-1, and Eury Pérez makes the rematch feel like a real pitching watch instead of background noise. The 10.90 gNERD is solidly above the historical middle, but the zeroed-out pitcher NERDs miss the point, because Pérez enters healthy after adding a sweeper, shutting down Colorado in September, and ending 2025 with a 1.88 ERA over his last three starts plus an 11-strikeout, 101.5-mph finale.
Miami’s 8.70 tNERD does the heavy lifting, with youth, low-payroll charm and a good bullpen boosting the Marlins while Colorado’s weaker offensive markers drag this toward the sensible rather than chaotic end of the spectrum. Lorenzen is a useful veteran add for a Rockies staff that needed adult supervision after its starters posted a 6.65 ERA in 2025, though his own season came with 25 homers allowed.
Miami’s lineup is a bit patched together with Christopher Morel scratched and Kyle Stowers on the IL, so this is more “watch Eury” than “watch the bats,” but that still makes it one of the better games on this slate.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Miami Marlins (1.79); radio, Colorado Rockies (1.80)
Colorado Rockies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -3.1 | 0.0% | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | $125.9M | 27.9 | 0.0 | 1.73 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.91 | -1.38 | -0.90 | 0.06 | 0.76 | -0.63 | -0.84 | 0.00 | -1.29 | -1.25 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.91 | -1.38 | -0.90 | 0.06 | 0.76 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
Miami Marlins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -0.7 | 3.6% | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | $67.3M | 26.8 | 1.0 | 1.79 | 1.66 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.21 | -0.82 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 1.37 | -1.42 | -1.96 | 0.51 | -1.17 | -1.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.21 | -0.82 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.70 |
Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies
No detailed stats available
Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins
No detailed stats available
Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a
Summary
This is more respectable middle-shelf than marquee, but the series already has a pulse: St. Louis opened it by erasing a 7-1 deficit in a 9-7 win, which is a neat way to suggest these Cardinals may be less stately and more unruly this year. The gNERD is leaning on team context more than mound celebrity, and that feels right: Michael McGreevy is the tidy option, Joe Boyle the fireworks stand with questionable permits. St. Louis’ stronger team score fits the current storyline: the Cardinals went 17-9 in spring, put MLB’s No. 5 prospect JJ Wetherholt on the Opening Day roster, and are doing it while Lars Nootbaar starts on the IL with heel trouble. McGreevy is a legitimate reason to watch after logging 95 2/3 innings with a 1.25 WHIP and a 1.9 BB/9 last year, and he spent camp adding a slider. Boyle gets the ball because Ryan Pepiot hit the IL, and his appeal is still raw Rays alchemy: a 98.6 mph average four-seamer in his 2025 starts, 129 career strikeouts in 115 2/3 innings, and enough chaos to keep Tampa Bay’s shaky bullpen relevant.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 4.0 | 2.6% | -0.1 | -0.3 | -2.8 | $89.9M | 27.4 | 2.0 | 2.27 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.17 | -0.97 | -0.46 | -0.58 | -2.14 | -1.12 | -1.35 | 1.02 | -0.23 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.17 | -0.97 | -0.46 | -0.58 | -2.14 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 3.1 | 8.3% | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | $135.7M | 28.6 | -1.0 | 2.17 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.91 | -0.08 | 1.27 | 0.27 | -0.16 | -0.50 | -0.13 | -0.51 | -0.43 | -0.50 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.91 | -0.08 | 1.27 | 0.27 | -0.16 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.84 |
Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays
No detailed stats available
Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals
No detailed stats available
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a
Summary
This is a perfectly respectable watch, mostly because the Nationals are the livelier party and Cade Horton supplies the one genuinely compelling mystery. Washington already slapped Chicago 10-4 in the opener, so the Nats’ high-tNERD, barrel-happy chaos arrives with receipts.
Washington’s 7.55 tNERD makes sense on the field too: James Wood is the lineup’s power plant, while CJ Abrams and Jacob Young give the roster real speed-and-defense juice. Horton’s 0.00 pNERD is a data blind spot, not an insult; he finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting after 118 innings with 97 strikeouts and 33 walks, before a rib fracture ended his postseason. Mikolas is the veteran counterweight Washington signed in February; his 5.5% walk rate and habit of 31-start seasons keep games moving, though last year’s 29 homers allowed explain why he is more innings-eater than event television. Chicago also opens without Seiya Suzuki, and with Justin Steele still rehabbing his elbow, which trims a bit of the Cubs-side sparkle.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Washington Nationals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 2.4 | 20.0% | 0.1 | -0.8 | 0.4 | $115.9M | 27.5 | -3.0 | 2.00 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.70 | 1.76 | 0.41 | -1.63 | 0.30 | -0.77 | -1.25 | -1.53 | -0.75 | -0.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.70 | 1.76 | 0.41 | -1.63 | 0.30 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.55 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -0.5 | 12.0% | -0.1 | -0.3 | -1.4 | $197.7M | 30.6 | 0.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.15 | 0.50 | -0.46 | -0.58 | -1.07 | 0.33 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.15 | 0.50 | -0.46 | -0.58 | -1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 3.66 |
Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals
No detailed stats available
Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs
No detailed stats available
Boston Red Sox @ Cincinnati Reds, 1:10p
Summary
This is a respectable middle-shelf watch: Boston brings the deeper roster, while Cincinnati is already patching holes in the rotation and trying not to let this series turn into an early sermon. The real hook is context, not ace-vs.-ace fireworks—Sonny Gray opens his Red Sox chapter back in Cincinnati, and Brady Singer got bumped into this turn because the Reds are without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Boston won the opener 3-0, holding the Reds to four hits; the one Cincinnati spark was rookie Sal Stewart going 3-for-4, so there is at least a faint chance of a counterpunch. The Sox’s 7.00 tNERD reads true: a stacked outfield, Marcelo Mayer sticking in the lineup, and a bullpen that looks like an asset rather than a liability. The Reds’ lower team score also scans, with thin offense in your inputs and most of the intrigue coming from Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suárez’s return, and roster stress. Gray’s 2025 work—180 2/3 innings, 201 strikeouts, 38 walks—gives this a sturdier pitching backbone than the blank pNERDs imply.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 0.7 | 6.7% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | $191.8M | 28.7 | 2.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.20 | -0.33 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 1.06 | 0.25 | -0.02 | 1.02 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.20 | -0.33 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.02 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -4.0 | 5.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | $115.7M | 28.7 | 0.0 | 2.09 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.18 | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.27 | 0.38 | -0.77 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.59 | -0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.18 | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.63 |
Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox
No detailed stats available
Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds
No detailed stats available
Texas Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 1:05p
Summary
This is a respectable watch, less because the gNERD is screaming and more because the names still do. deGrom vs. Nola comes with enough pedigree and unfinished business to make a middle-of-the-pack score feel undersold. The model lands near its historical median and almost exactly today’s average, which fits: both lineups are solid rather than deranged, with Texas getting its tNERD from barrel rate and defense, and Philadelphia from a broader offensive profile plus a little broadcast polish. deGrom is the real draw even without pNERD data, coming off a healthy 2025 comeback in which he made 30 starts with a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP for Texas; when he’s upright, the game tends to feel more serious. Nola, meanwhile, is trying to erase an injury-marred 2025, but his spring included a strong World Baseball Classic run for Italy and a welcome velocity bump. Philadelphia also took the opener 5-3 behind Cristopher Sánchez and homers from Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm, so there’s already a little series bite here.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Texas Rangers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.2 | 12.5% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | $219.7M | 30.4 | 0.0 | 2.01 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.36 | 0.58 | -0.03 | 1.11 | 0.22 | 0.63 | 1.71 | 0.00 | -0.74 | -0.65 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.36 | 0.58 | -0.03 | 1.11 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.53 |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.5 | 4.2% | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.6 | $279.5M | 29.5 | 1.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.44 | -0.72 | 0.41 | 0.06 | -0.46 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 0.51 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.44 | -0.72 | 0.41 | 0.06 | -0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 5.06 |
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
No detailed stats available
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
No detailed stats available
Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p
Summary
This is a respectable, not urgent, watch: the gNERD is almost exactly historical average, but Toronto’s version of average now comes with Dylan Cease and an opener that already produced a walk-off plus two Shea Langeliers homers. The appeal is contrast: the Athletics’ young, loud lineup against a more polished Blue Jays club.
The pNERD blanks leave the starters underexplained, but Cease is still the headliner; last season he made 32 starts, struck out 215 in 168 innings, posted a 29.8 percent strikeout rate and MLB’s best whiff rate, and Toronto likes the fit with its elite recent defense. Springs is less flashy, but 171 innings from a veteran lefty works.
The Athletics’ 7.86 tNERD tracks with the profile: huge barrel-rate juice, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, and a Langeliers heater that already spilled into the opener, though Lawrence Butler’s knee is still being managed. Toronto’s lower tNERD hides some intrigue too, with Kazuma Okamoto arriving from Japan while José Berríos, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage open on the IL.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Athletics
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -2.7 | 21.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | $77.1M | 27.6 | -1.0 | 1.27 | 1.94 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.80 | 1.97 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.22 | -1.29 | -1.14 | -0.51 | -2.19 | -0.95 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.80 | 1.97 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.86 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -0.4 | 3.4% | -0.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 0.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.12 | -0.85 | -0.46 | 0.06 | -0.85 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.12 | -0.85 | -0.46 | 0.06 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
Jeffrey Springs, Athletics
No detailed stats available
Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays
No detailed stats available
Detroit Tigers @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p
Summary
This is a perfectly decent “let’s see where this goes” game, not the crown jewel of the slate. Detroit has spent the first two games turning San Diego’s opening series into a mild civic inconvenience, outscoring the Padres 13-4, while top prospect Kevin McGonigle has opened his career 5-for-8.
Detroit’s 9.81 gNERD sits a bit below today’s average, which feels right: the Tigers look solid rather than explosive, and the Padres’ most reliable entertainment edge may still be the broadcast. Still, the pitching matchup has more life than the blank pNERDs imply. Flaherty’s 2025 results were uneven, but his 3.85 FIP suggested better underlying work, and Detroit still penciled him into a veteran-heavy rotation. San Diego gave Randy Vásquez an inside track to a rotation job in camp and is counting on him while Joe Musgrove, Matt Waldron, Jason Adam and Yuki Matsui are sidelined. The real hook, though, is whether McGonigle keeps announcing himself and whether the Padres’ star core — especially a quiet Fernando Tatis Jr. — finally gives Xander Bogaerts some help.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.2 | 5.9% | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -3.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.35 | -0.46 | -1.77 | 0.48 | 0.22 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -1.53 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.35 | -0.46 | -1.77 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 4.92 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -3.9 | 6.3% | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 0.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.15 | -0.39 | -0.46 | 0.69 | -0.08 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.15 | -0.39 | -0.46 | 0.69 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
No detailed stats available
Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres
No detailed stats available
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets, 1:10p
Summary
This is a respectable watch, not a cancel-your-plans one: the Mets provide most of the glitter, and the Pirates mostly provide questions. The 9.66 gNERD sits a bit below today’s average, and the split is clear: New York’s 8.78 tNERD fits a new-look roster built around Juan Soto after the club added Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta while tracking Francisco Lindor’s recovery from hamate surgery. Pittsburgh’s 0.55 tNERD says the model still isn’t buying the makeover; Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe may help, but this is still a club trying to climb out from a league-worst 2025 offense, and the ugly fielding and bullpen components don’t help. Peterson is the better statistical lure after a 2025 All-Star season with 168 2/3 innings, 150 strikeouts and a hefty 57.6% ground-ball rate, even if a 4.27 xERA suggests a few loose floorboards. Keller is more workmanlike, but 176 1/3 innings and 150 strikeouts usually keep things orderly enough for the bats to decide it.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.3 | 3.7% | 0.0 | -1.6 | -1.5 | $88.9M | 28.4 | -1.0 | 2.01 | 1.98 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.38 | -0.80 | -0.03 | -3.31 | -1.15 | -1.13 | -0.33 | -0.51 | -0.74 | -0.86 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.38 | -0.80 | -0.03 | -3.31 | -1.15 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.55 |
New York Mets
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 4.7 | 12.0% | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.3 | $332.0M | 29.7 | -1.0 | 3.32 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.38 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 1.11 | -0.23 | 2.14 | 1.00 | -0.51 | 1.82 | 1.41 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.38 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 1.11 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 4.00 | 8.78 |
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
No detailed stats available
David Peterson, New York Mets
No detailed stats available
Kansas City Royals @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p
Summary
This is a lower-end gNERD game that lives on context: Atlanta’s lineup already arrived with a sledgehammer, while Kansas City’s offense is still looking for the receipt. The model gets no help from missing pitcher data, but the human case is simple: Wacha is steady, López is a comeback test, and the Braves can still hit through roster damage. Atlanta opened the series by blanking the Royals 6-0 with three homers, six scoreless innings from Chris Sale, Ronald Acuña Jr. back atop the order and rookie catcher Drake Baldwin joining the noise. The Royals’ weaker barrel profile already showed itself, and Michael Massey’s calf issue doesn’t deepen the lineup. Wacha remains watchable as an innings merchant who has logged 339 1/3 innings for Kansas City over the last two seasons, while López is the novel draw after a 2024 All-Star season was followed by just one 2025 start before shoulder surgery. Atlanta is still missing Jurickson Profar, Sean Murphy, Ha-Seong Kim and Spencer Strider, so another Braves outburst would not be subtle.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)
Kansas City Royals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -2.6 | 0.0% | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | $130.0M | 28.8 | 1.0 | 2.11 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.77 | -1.38 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 0.68 | -0.58 | 0.08 | 0.51 | -0.54 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.77 | -1.38 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 3.7 | 12.5% | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | $216.2M | 29.4 | 2.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.09 | 0.58 | -2.20 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 1.02 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.09 | 0.58 | -2.20 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.92 |
Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
No detailed stats available
Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves
No detailed stats available
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles, 1:05p
Summary
This sits near the low end of today’s slate for a reason: the opener was a 2-1 reminder that the ingredients here lean more toward tidy chess match than messy fun. Still, Kyle Bradish gives it a little pulse. Baltimore already leads the series, and Bradish is a worthwhile subplot as he settles back in after June 2024 Tommy John surgery; he struck out 10 in his 2025 return and then logged five spring innings with two strikeouts and one walk. Minnesota, meanwhile, is reshuffling after Pablo López’s season-ending elbow injury, with Taj Bradley pushed into a top-three rotation role and labeled an intriguing breakout candidate after arriving from Tampa Bay. The team NERDs fit the mood: both offenses grade below average in batting runs and barrel rate, so this is less a slugfest pitch than a test of whether Baltimore’s stronger bullpen and run-prevention edges can suffocate things again. Baltimore does have more lineup glamour—Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman—but Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg opening on the IL leave even the better side a bit half-assembled.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)
Minnesota Twins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.6 | 4.8% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | $145.1M | 28.8 | 1.0 | 2.30 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.47 | -0.63 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.15 | -0.37 | 0.08 | 0.51 | -0.17 | -0.69 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.47 | -0.63 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.15 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.81 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -2.2 | 4.8% | 0.2 | -0.7 | 1.9 | $167.6M | 29.2 | -1.0 | 2.82 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.65 | -0.63 | 0.84 | -1.42 | 1.45 | -0.07 | 0.49 | -0.51 | 0.85 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.65 | -0.63 | 0.84 | -1.42 | 1.45 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.09 |
Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins
No detailed stats available
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
No detailed stats available
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants, 4:15p
Summary
This is the day’s lowest-gNERD game, which feels fair: the Yankees have taken the first two 10-0, so the hook is less masterpiece-in-waiting than whether San Francisco can avoid being swept without ever locating its offense. Still, the starters add some mystery, because Will Warren grabbed an early Yankees rotation spot with a 1.42 spring ERA, while Tyler Mahle is making his Giants debut after posting a 2.18 ERA for Texas in 2025, impressive work for a pitcher coming off another injury-marred stretch. New York’s 6.83 tNERD does the heavy lifting. The Yankees pair real thunder—Judge and Stanton both homered in the last game—with a strong barrel-rate and baserunning profile, which is a nice way of saying they can manufacture noise even when Judge opens 0-for-7. The Giants’ 1.97 tNERD matches the ugly start: four hits, 19 strikeouts, and no runs in two games. Warren is here in part because Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are on the IL and Anthony Volpe is out.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 0.7 | 13.7% | 0.6 | -0.8 | 1.2 | $290.9M | 29.1 | -1.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.20 | 0.77 | 2.58 | -1.63 | 0.91 | 1.58 | 0.38 | -0.51 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.20 | 0.77 | 2.58 | -1.63 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.83 |
San Francisco Giants
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -10.1 | 2.5% | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.9 | $195.3M | 29.3 | -3.0 | 3.20 | 3.49 | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.97 | -0.99 | -0.03 | 0.69 | -0.69 | 0.30 | 0.59 | -1.53 | 1.59 | 2.34 | — | — |
| tNERD | -2.97 | -0.99 | -0.03 | 0.69 | -0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 4.00 | 1.97 |
Will Warren, New York Yankees
No detailed stats available
Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants
No detailed stats available
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MLB: What to watch on March 27, 2026