MLB: What to watch on March 31, 2026

• 31 March 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago White Sox @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

This game sits at a gNERD of 15.09 — the top of today's slate and well above the historical 75th percentile — driven almost entirely by the Marlins, who bring one of the most watchable team profiles in recent memory. Two teams coming off a lively series opener make for a decent reason to tune in.

Miami (3-1) hosts Chicago (1-3) in game two of a three-game set, a day after Vargas blasted a grand slam and drove in six runs as the White Sox won 9-4. The Marlins' tNERD of 14.33 is the engine here — it's near the top of the historical distribution and reflects a genuinely compelling team profile: strong baserunning, solid defense, an excellent bullpen, and, at an average age of 26.8, one of the youngest rosters in baseball. Their luck component is large enough to note: Miami is outperforming their underlying numbers by a meaningful margin, suggesting some regression ahead. The White Sox bring a high barrel rate and a low payroll that NERD rewards, though their shaky bullpen and poor baserunning drag things down. Both starters — Erick Fedde and Janson Junk — have pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning no statistical profile is available; Fedde has thrown 772 career innings with a 4.87 FIP, while Junk has 111 strikeouts over 150 career innings with a 4.8 FIP. Neither arm is a reason to watch, but the teams themselves are.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Miami Marlins

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

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New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Two quality starters, two playoff-caliber rosters, and a series already on the line after just one game — this is exactly the kind of early-season matchup worth staying up for. The gNERD of 13.21 sits comfortably in the top quarter of historical scores, and the game has the underlying quality to back it up.

The Mariners' tNERD of 9.86 is the engine here — Seattle grades out well across the board, with strong barrel rates, above-average baserunning, and a young roster. The Yankees aren't far behind at 6.55, boosted by a high barrel rate of their own and a bullpen that's been one of the best in baseball early on. New York swept their opening series, holding the Giants to just one run across 27 innings. Seattle has won two straight to go 3-2, capped by Cal Raleigh's walk-off single in the ninth on Monday.

On the mound, both pitchers have pNERD scores of zero — it's early and the stats aren't there yet — but the résumés are real. Fried's season debut showed he can still dominate without his best stuff, pitching into the seventh while allowing just three baserunners. Gilbert led the majors in starts, innings, and WHIP in 2024 before a flexor strain cost him a month-plus of 2025. This year he's back at the top of Seattle's rotation. Worth noting: the Yankees are already missing Cole, Rodón, and Schmidt to elbow injuries.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

New York Yankees

Seattle Mariners

Max Fried, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Shane McClanahan is making his first major-league start since August 2, 2023 — a two-and-a-half-year odyssey through Tommy John surgery, a freak triceps nerve injury, and another surgery to fix it. That alone is worth watching.

The gNERD of 12.29 lands comfortably above the historical median of 10.10, driven almost entirely by Milwaukee's tNERD of 11.65 — one of the stronger team scores in the dataset. The Brewers are contributing across the board: solid batting runs, a genuinely excellent baserunning unit (2.41 component), and a capable bullpen. Tampa Bay's tNERD of 2.93 is more modest, dragged down by poor barrel rate, weak fielding, and a below-average bullpen, though their youth and low payroll add some upside credit.

Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without statistical baselines — McClanahan because he's missed the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and then a freak nerve issue in his left triceps, and Woodruff presumably for similar injury-related reasons. McClanahan was even struck by a line drive in his final spring tuneup, making this return feel almost cosmically earned. When healthy, he's been a two-time All-Star and one of the best pitchers in baseball — the question of what he still is makes this start genuinely worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Tampa Bay Rays

Milwaukee Brewers

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

No detailed stats available

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

The Braves are a legitimately watchable team anchored by strong fielding, a good bullpen, and real pop at the plate — and the Athletics, despite being 0-4 and outscored badly, are a young, low-payroll club that the NERD model actually finds interesting. Both starting pitchers have pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're flying blind statistically, but there's enough context here to make this worth a look.

The Braves shut out the Athletics 4-0 in the series opener, so the Athletics will be looking to win their first game of the season — which is either compelling drama or a sign of things to come. Atlanta's tNERD of 8.68 is well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by solid batting, a barrel rate above average, strong fielding, and a bullpen that's been genuinely useful. The Athletics' tNERD of 5.57 is more modest, but their young roster (average age 27.6) and bargain payroll ($77M) earn them NERD credit even when the offense — which has been the worst in the league so far — is dragging things down.

Suarez made just seven appearances in 2025, his first with the Braves, having pitched the previous six seasons with the Angels. The market is balancing legitimate concerns about Suarez's tiny sample size — just 19.1 innings in 2025 — against Civale's much larger body of mediocre work. The gNERD of 12.12 sits above the historical median of 10.1, making this a reasonable watch among today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Athletics

Atlanta Braves

Aaron Civale, Athletics

No detailed stats available

José Suarez, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Shohei Ohtani makes his 2026 pitching debut tonight, and that alone makes this game worth your time. The Dodgers' bullpen and defense are among the best in baseball by the numbers, and the reigning World Series champs are looking to bounce back after the Guardians handed them their first loss of the season the night before.

This is Ohtani's first pitching appearance of 2026 at Dodger Stadium, part of what's expected to be a full two-way season — his second Tommy John surgery in 2023 kept him off the mound in 2024, and last year he didn't pitch until June. In 2025, he posted a 3.34 ERA across 67⅓ innings with 90 strikeouts and 16 walks. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00 due to limited 2026 data, so the statistical case for watchability rests mostly on the teams.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 8.73 is well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by strong fielding, a dominant bullpen, and a barrel rate that ranks near the top of the league. Their pitching staff carries a team FIP of 2.66 with a K/BB ratio of 9.00. José Ramírez is also chasing history, having tied Nap Lajoie for second all-time in games played for Cleveland. Bibee makes his second start of the season, having allowed three solo home runs over five innings last time out, with seven strikeouts. The game's 11.95 gNERD sits right around the 60th percentile historically — solid, not spectacular — but Ohtani's pitching debut gives it a draw the numbers alone can't capture.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Kodai Senga's return to Opening Day form is the main attraction here — this is essentially a redemption story on the mound, with a ghost fork that's reportedly back to its 2023 best. The gNERD of 11.71 sits just above the historical median, making this a solidly watchable game rather than a must-see spectacle.

Senga's pNERD is 0.00 due to missing statistical data, but the backstory more than compensates. His last two seasons have been marred by injuries — he missed nearly all of 2024 after shoulder and calf strains. This spring, though, the signs are encouraging: his fastball has averaged over 96 mph and his ghost fork is generating a 50% strikeout rate this spring. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has called this Senga's best training camp with the club.

On the Cardinals' side, Andre Pallante also carries a 0.00 pNERD for lack of data. St. Louis edges out the Mets in tNERD (7.14 vs. 6.27), driven notably by a strong barrel rate (z-score: +1.02) and solid baserunning (+1.13). The Mets counter with above-average batting runs and a well-regarded broadcast team. Neither club is setting the world on fire early, but the Cardinals' barrel rate suggests they could make Senga work for every out — which is exactly the kind of tension that makes a pitcher's debut worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

St. Louis Cardinals

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

The Cubs bring strong defense, active baserunning, and a good broadcast crew to Wrigley, while Angels ace José Soriano — a survivor of two Tommy John surgeries who just dominated on Opening Day — gives this early-season matchup a legitimate storyline worth tuning in for. Both pNERD scores sit at zero due to missing data, so the gNERD of 11.41 (right at the historical median) is driven entirely by team metrics.

Soriano has earned his current role the hard way, surviving two Tommy John surgeries and a detour through Pittsburgh before establishing himself in Anaheim. In his Opening Day start just days ago, he was sharp — six shutout innings with seven strikeouts on two hits. His sinker averaged 97+ mph last season and touches 100, paired with a four-seamer and knuckle-curveball.

The Cubs bring the better team profile: their fielding and baserunning metrics are both solidly positive, and the Angels' playoff drought now sits at 11 years, which adds a quiet desperation to their early games. The Angels' offense rates well by batting runs, though their defense is a liability. The Cubs' bullpen is a drag on their tNERD, so late innings could get untidy. Wrigley Field and a strong broadcast crew round out what's a watchable but not essential game to start the week.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Los Angeles Angels

Chicago Cubs

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

No detailed stats available

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Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

A solid mid-tier watchability game featuring two teams with legitimate offensive upside and a pitching matchup that's more intriguing than it might look on paper — especially with both starters making their 2026 series debuts. Both bullpens are banged up, which could make the late innings unpredictable in the best and worst ways.

Hunter Brown struck out nine in his first 2026 start, and while he needed 102 pitches to get through just 4⅔ innings due to four walks, his stuff looked sharp — his 2025 line of 206 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP was ace-level. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without underlying stat data on them, but Brown's profile warrants attention. Brayan Bello makes his 2026 debut here; he was strong for much of 2025 before a rough stretch down the stretch. Last season Bello posted an 11-9 record with a 1.24 WHIP and one of the better ground-ball rates among qualified AL starters — a profile that can work in Houston against a lineup starting to drive the ball.

Houston's tNERD (5.64) gets a lift from solid batting runs and good baserunning, while Boston's tNERD (6.56) is propped up by a notable luck component — the Red Sox are underperforming their underlying numbers and are due for positive regression. Both bullpens are significantly shorthanded, with the Astros missing Enyel De Los Santos, Bennett Sousa, Ronel Blanco, Nate Pearson, and Brandon Walter to injury. Houston has won three straight and Altuve leads the team with two home runs and six runs scored early in the season. At a gNERD of 11.10 — right around the historical median — this is a perfectly watchable game, not a must-see.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Houston Astros

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

A 41-year-old future Hall of Famer making what could be his Opening Day start, chasing 3,500 career strikeouts, against a Rockies team that's essentially a backdrop — this game is more about witnessing a piece of baseball history than a competitive matchup. The gNERD of 10.41 sits right at the historical median, but the Scherzer storyline elevates it considerably.

Scherzer is returning for his 19th MLB season, and he's said his motivation to come back crystallized during Game 7 of the World Series against the Dodgers. He enters 2026 just 11 strikeouts away from the 3,500-strikeout club — a milestone that could fall early in this very start. With Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos all headed to the IL, Scherzer has locked into a rotation spot to begin the season. Spring training showed fastball velocities in the 93-95 mph range, which is an encouraging sign for a pitcher his age.

Both pNERD scores are zero — no statistical data yet for either Scherzer or Colorado's Ryan Feltner — so the gNERD of 10.41 leans on team metrics. Toronto's tNERD of 6.75 is driven by solid batting and a strong fielding profile, while Colorado's 4.06 reflects a below-average bullpen and weak offense. The Rockies' low payroll does contribute a positive component, but that's about the nicest thing the numbers say about them. If you're tuning in, you're tuning in for Mad Max.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Colorado Rockies

Toronto Blue Jays

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Andrew Painter's long-awaited MLB debut is the reason to watch this game, full stop. The gNERD of 9.17 is a touch below the historical median, but the storyline on the mound more than compensates for what the numbers miss.

Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023, costing him two full seasons, and arrives as a 23-year-old right-hander who is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. His debut is being called the most highly anticipated by a homegrown Phillies pitcher since Cole Hamels on May 12, 2006. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00 — no MLB statistical record exists for either — so the average pitcher NERD of 5.00 is essentially a placeholder, not a reflection of Painter's ceiling.

On the team side, Washington brings a legitimately young lineup (average age 27.5, good for a +1.25 component) and solid batting runs, though poor baserunning and fielding drag the tNERD down. Philadelphia's offense is off to a slow start, with batting runs at -5.0, though the bullpen is a modest positive. Zack Wheeler begins the season on the injured list recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, so the Phillies rotation context matters too.

The debut alone makes this worth your time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

PJ Poulin, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Webb's bounce-back start after a rough Opening Day gets the marquee billing here, but the Giants' anemic offense and both teams' early-season struggles make this a game built more on pitcher intrigue than lineup fireworks.

Both pNERD scores are 0, meaning we're working without statistical profiles for either starter — Webb because the season just started, and Germán Márquez because he's been away from the majors long enough that current numbers don't exist. Webb is making his fifth consecutive Opening Day start, but his season debut was a mess: he allowed 7 runs in 5 innings against the Yankees, with the game effectively turning in the second inning — though he did strikeout seven. A bounce-back against San Diego would be a welcome sign for Giants fans. The Giants' tNERD of 1.72 is one of the lower team scores historically, dragged down badly by both batting runs and barrel rate near the bottom of the league. The Padres (tNERD: 5.34) are more watchable, with a solid bullpen and decent fielding. Both broadcasters rate well, which helps. At a gNERD of 8.53 — below the historical median of around 10 — this one sits comfortably in the "fine if you're already watching" category.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Germán Márquez, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

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Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

The headline story here is Jacob deGrom — a 39-year-old with a career 2.57 FIP and 1,851 career strikeouts — taking the mound if his neck holds up, opposite a Zach Eflin who struggled to a 5.93 ERA across just 71 innings last season. That's a lopsided pitching matchup that could make this more compelling than the middling gNERD of 8.46 (below the historical median of 10.1) suggests.

Since both pitchers carry a pNERD of 0 — meaning no current-season statistical data is available — the score leans on team metrics, and neither side inspires much confidence there. Eflin posted a 5.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 71.1 innings last season, and deGrom's 9.64 K/9 rate creates swing-and-miss dominance that Eflin's 6.31 K/9 simply cannot match — assuming deGrom is healthy enough to go. He was scratched from his second start of the season with neck soreness and had yet to be placed on the IL as of Sunday, so his availability is genuinely uncertain. The Rangers' bullpen is a legitimate bright spot (1.13 standard deviations above average), while Baltimore's bullpen also grades well — but the Orioles' fielding (-2.11) and barrel rate (-1.34) components drag their tNERD down to a weak 1.91, among the lower scores historically. Both teams enter with identical 2-1 records, which at least means something is on the line early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Texas Rangers

Baltimore Orioles

Zach Eflin, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

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Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Both starters are making their first appearances of the season with no statistical data behind them, and Arizona's team metrics are among the weakest in today's slate — but Detroit's young roster and the backdrop of a lively series opener make this worth a casual glance.

The gNERD of 7.75 sits below the historical median of ~10.1 and toward the lower end of today's range (6.33–15.09), and the numbers tell you why: Arizona is already dealing with a string of pitching injuries, including Cristian Mena (shoulder), Andrew Saalfrank (shoulder surgery), Merrill Kelly (back), and Blake Walston (elbow surgery), which helps explain the D-backs' dismal tNERD of 0.30 — dragged down especially by a poor bullpen and negative baserunning. Both Pfaadt and Mize are making their first starts of the season, so their pNERD scores are zeroed out, leaving us flying blind on the pitching side.

Detroit's tNERD of 5.20 is the more interesting half of this matchup, boosted by a notably young roster (average age 27.6) and a solid barrel rate. The night before, Arizona built an 8-0 lead and nearly coughed it up, with the bullpen allowing six runs while recording just two outs and committing two balks — so the D-backs' relievers bear watching. If you're looking for the marquee pitching matchup in this series, that comes the following day, when Tarik Skubal faces Zac Gallen.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Two teams that rank among the least watchable in today's slate — by the numbers, this is the game to skip if you have options. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are early in a series that already has the Reds up 2-0 on the Pirates, with both clubs sporting weak offensive and defensive metrics to open the season.

The gNERD of 6.33 is the lowest of today's games and sits well below the historical median of 10.1. The culprit is almost entirely the team side: both clubs are 0-1 in this series, and their tNERD scores reflect it — Pittsburgh checks in at a dismal -0.34, dragged down by severely negative marks in barrel rate, fielding, and bullpen performance. Cincinnati fares better at 3.00, buoyed by a solid barrel rate, but is undermined by poor baserunning and equally bad fielding. Chase Burns allowed one hit in five innings in the series opener, leading Cincinnati to a 2-0 victory, so the Reds' pitching has been the story — not the offense.

Both starters carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we simply have no statistical profile on either Bubba Chandler or Brandon Williamson to evaluate. The Reds enter at 3-1, while the Pirates are 1-3 — a gap that reflects Pittsburgh's rough early going. If you're looking for a reason to tune in, the novelty of a young season and two NL Central neighbors settling scores is about all this one offers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Brandon Williamson, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

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