MLB: What to watch on April 1, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Chicago White Sox @ Miami Marlins, 10:10a
Summary
The Miami Marlins bring the most watchable tNERD score among today's games, and Sandy Alcantara — a former Cy Young winner making his sixth Opening Day start in franchise history — is the kind of pitcher worth watching even when the underlying numbers are still TBD. This game sits at the top of today's slate and well into the upper quartile of all games historically.
The Marlins' tNERD of 12.79 is the highest of today's games and well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by a strong bullpen, good baserunning, solid fielding, and a young, low-payroll roster. Their luck component is worth flagging too: with Alcantara coming off his first full season back from Tommy John surgery — 31 starts and 174.2 innings — there's genuine optimism around this team's ceiling. The Marlins' positive luck score suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers, meaning improvement may be coming.
On the mound, Alcantara has been tabbed for his franchise-record sixth Opening Day start for Miami, and he's introducing a sweeper into his arsenal this season — a new wrinkle for a pitcher still finding his way back to Cy Young form. In his first outing of the season, he didn't give up an extra-base hit, which is a promising sign. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00 due to missing statistical data, so the pitching side of the ledger is a bit of a black box. The White Sox, meanwhile, offer a young roster with genuine barrel-rate pop, even if the bullpen and defense are liabilities.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -0.7 | 10.1% | -0.5 | -1.4 | -3.4 | $105.8M | 27.1 | -1.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.13 | 1.38 | -0.72 | -0.76 | -1.11 | -1.11 | -1.76 | -0.33 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.13 | 1.38 | -0.72 | -0.76 | -1.11 | 1.11 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 5.73 |
Miami Marlins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 4.6 | 6.3% | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6.2 | $81.5M | 27.4 | 3.0 | 1.79 | 1.66 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.87 | -0.21 | 1.58 | 0.81 | 1.89 | -1.39 | -1.49 | 0.98 | -1.17 | -1.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.87 | -0.21 | 1.58 | 0.81 | 1.89 | 1.39 | 1.49 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 12.79 |
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
No detailed stats available
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
No detailed stats available
New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p
Summary
Two genuinely talented young starters square off in a series finale between two of the AL's better teams — and the pitching matchup alone makes this worth your time. The gNERD of 12.82 sits comfortably above the historical median of ~10.1, and the team-level metrics back it up.
Both pNERD scores are listed as 0.00 due to limited early-season data, but don't let that fool you. Cam Schlittler burst onto the scene last year with a hard fastball and a nasty cutter, culminating in eight scoreless innings and 12 strikeouts in a winner-take-all AL Wild Card game against Boston. He had about as good an opening start as anyone could hope for, making it into the sixth inning while allowing just one hit and striking out eight. He'll face the same Mariners squad he debuted against last year. On the other side, George Kirby's first outing of the year coincided with Seattle's first win, as the 2023 All-Star fanned six in six innings and allowed just one run.
The Mariners' tNERD of 9.25 is the real engine here — their high barrel rate, solid baserunning, and a positive luck score suggest they've been a bit unlucky and may be due for better offensive results. The Yankees bring a strong bullpen and their own impressive barrel rate. The Yankees have continued to cash in on a strong start from their pitching staff, making this a potential pitcher's duel with two clubs that can also hit. Series on the line, quality arms going, good teams — worth watching.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -2.5 | 10.1% | 0.7 | -1.0 | 4.2 | $337.1M | 29.9 | -1.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.46 | 1.38 | 0.73 | -0.54 | 1.26 | 1.54 | 0.85 | -0.33 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.46 | 1.38 | 0.73 | -0.54 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.38 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 2.1 | 10.5% | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.2 | $196.7M | 28.4 | 2.0 | 2.35 | 2.52 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.40 | 1.55 | 0.97 | 0.30 | 0.64 | -0.07 | -0.52 | 0.65 | -0.07 | 0.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.40 | 1.55 | 0.97 | 0.30 | 0.64 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 9.25 |
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
No detailed stats available
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
No detailed stats available
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals, 10:15a
Summary
This is a series rubber match with genuine stakes — two 3-2 teams, a young Cardinals squad with real upside, and a Mets lineup featuring Juan Soto that's looking to bounce back after getting shut out in Game 2. The Cardinals' tNERD of 9.55 is the real engine here, placing them well above the historical 75th percentile.
What makes St. Louis compelling on paper is a combination of factors: the Cardinals enter 2026 with a notably young roster — every member of their starting eight is under 30, something that hasn't happened in St. Louis since the 1944 season. The team's tNERD reflects this, with strong barrel rate, above-average baserunning, and a payroll component that rewards their lean, youth-oriented construction. St. Louis finished last season 79-83 and has missed the postseason in three consecutive years, so there's something to prove here. Mets fans will also get a look at JJ Wetherholt, the Cardinals' 7th overall pick in 2024, who was ranked No. 5 by MLB Pipeline heading into the season and homered in his second career at-bat.
On the mound, both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without underlying statistical models. Peralta is the centerpiece of the Mets' offseason trade with Milwaukee and didn't have the best of starts against Pittsburgh on Opening Day, allowing four earned runs in 5.0 IP. Liberatore earned his first career Opening Day nod in just his second season as a full-time starter, going 29 starts last year with a 4.21 FIP in 151⅔ innings. His career FIP sits at 4.5 — serviceable, not special. The gNERD of 12.28 lands above the historical median of 10.10, driven almost entirely by that Cardinals tNERD. It's a watchable game, mostly for the Cardinals' youth and the series-deciding stakes.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)
New York Mets
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 0.7 | 6.2% | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | $374.9M | 29.9 | 1.0 | 3.32 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.14 | -0.25 | -0.72 | -0.09 | -0.02 | 1.97 | 0.85 | 0.33 | 1.82 | 1.41 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.14 | -0.25 | -0.72 | -0.09 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 4.00 | 5.01 |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.4 | 9.6% | 1.0 | -0.8 | 1.6 | $111.2M | 26.9 | -5.0 | 2.17 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.27 | 1.17 | 1.09 | -0.42 | 0.45 | -1.05 | -1.94 | -1.63 | -0.43 | -0.50 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.27 | 1.17 | 1.09 | -0.42 | 0.45 | 1.05 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 9.55 |
Freddy Peralta, New York Mets
No detailed stats available
Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
No detailed stats available
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 5:20p
Summary
The Dodgers are fielding a genuinely strong team — elite bullpen, solid defense, and a barrel rate that stands out — while Yamamoto takes the mound on the heels of a sharp Opening Day performance. Cleveland is a young, budget-conscious club that punches above its payroll, even if the offense has been quiet early.
Both pNERD scores are zero, meaning we're working without pitcher statistical baselines this early in the season, but context fills the gap: Yamamoto is making his second start of 2026, coming off Opening Day where he went six innings, struck out six, and allowed just two runs to the Diamondbacks. Gavin Williams gets the ball for Cleveland in what is a tough road assignment. The Dodgers' tNERD of 8.54 is well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by a standout fielding profile, a bullpen that has been genuinely excellent, and a strong barrel rate. The Dodgers have been elite in relief, posting a 2.19 FIP. Cleveland's tNERD of 5.31 is more modest — their youth and low payroll add watchability points, but the Guardians lineup carries poor early numbers (.279 wOBA, 79 wRC+). The game's gNERD of 11.92 sits just above the historical median, and is right in the middle of today's slate — a solid watch, particularly if you want to see Yamamoto's 2026 form against a scrappy but offensively challenged Cleveland club.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -6.9 | 6.8% | -0.1 | -1.5 | 0.8 | $88.9M | 27.6 | -1.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.29 | -0.00 | -0.23 | -0.82 | 0.20 | -1.30 | -1.35 | -0.33 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.29 | -0.00 | -0.23 | -0.82 | 0.20 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 5.31 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.3 | 8.8% | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | $413.5M | 30.0 | -1.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.25 | 0.84 | 0.13 | 1.71 | 1.42 | 2.41 | 0.90 | -0.33 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.25 | 0.84 | 0.13 | 1.71 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 8.54 |
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
No detailed stats available
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
No detailed stats available
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers, 10:40a
Summary
The Brewers are the main reason to tune in here — a young, well-rounded team that runs the bases with purpose and supports one of the better bullpens in baseball. The pitching matchup is a bit of a coin flip in terms of data, since both starters have pNERD scores of 0, but Rasmussen's track record makes him worth watching.
Milwaukee's tNERD of 11.93 is what lifts this game to its 11.80 gNERD — above the historical median of 10.10, and solidly mid-pack among today's slate. The Brewers are generating runs, running the bases well (2.66 z-score in baserunning), fielding adequately, and getting solid bullpen work, all while being one of the younger rosters in the game. Tampa Bay, by contrast, brings a weak barrel rate, shaky defense, and a bullpen that's been a liability.
On the mound, Rasmussen has overcome three elbow surgeries and has long dreamed of sticking in the rotation, and he delivered in 2025 with a 127:37 K:BB over 150 innings across 31 starts. Tampa Bay has tabbed him as their Opening Day starter, with hopes the Rays won't scale back his workload as they did last year. His counterpart, Jacob Misiorowski, is a young Brewers arm with no statistical data yet available — worth watching as a prospect, but an unknown quantity. Both pNERD scores sitting at 0 keeps this from being a true pitching showcase on paper.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 5.4 | 3.3% | -0.2 | -2.2 | -5.4 | $106.9M | 29.1 | 1.0 | 2.27 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.02 | -1.47 | -0.35 | -1.21 | -1.73 | -1.10 | 0.07 | 0.33 | -0.23 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.02 | -1.47 | -0.35 | -1.21 | -1.73 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.68 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 10.4 | 6.0% | 2.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | $139.3M | 27.7 | -4.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.96 | -0.34 | 2.66 | 0.30 | 0.95 | -0.73 | -1.21 | -1.31 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.96 | -0.34 | 2.66 | 0.30 | 0.95 | 0.73 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 11.93 |
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays
No detailed stats available
Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
No detailed stats available
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a
Summary
A solidly watchable mid-tier game, elevated by two teams with interesting contrasting profiles — the Cubs' excellent defense and baserunning against the Angels' surprising offensive punch to start the season. Both pitchers have pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're flying without statistical instruments on the mound, but there's still plenty to chew on.
Kikuchi made the Angels' Opening Day start this year, and his most recent outing saw him grind through 4⅓ innings with two runs allowed, battling through traffic but limiting damage. With no current-season pNERD data for either Kikuchi or Matthew Boyd, the mound matchup is genuinely a coin flip on paper.
The team-level numbers are where this game earns its keep. The Angels bring a positive batting runs contribution and a luck score suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying offense — expect some regression upward. The Cubs counter with strong fielding (+1.31 component), good baserunning, and notably strong broadcasters on both TV and radio, which quietly boosts the viewing experience. The Cubs' bullpen, however, is a liability.
At a gNERD of 11.56, this sits just above the historical median of 10.10 — a decent watch, not a must-see.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Los Angeles Angels
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 5.5 | 6.7% | 0.2 | -2.4 | 1.7 | $191.6M | 28.6 | 3.0 | 2.59 | 2.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.04 | -0.04 | 0.13 | -1.32 | 0.48 | -0.13 | -0.39 | 0.98 | 0.40 | -0.80 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.04 | -0.04 | 0.13 | -1.32 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.98 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.97 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -0.8 | 8.1% | 0.9 | 2.3 | -2.9 | $246.2M | 29.8 | -3.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.15 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 1.31 | -0.95 | 0.50 | 0.67 | -0.98 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.15 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 1.31 | -0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 7.15 |
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
No detailed stats available
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
No detailed stats available
Athletics @ Atlanta Braves, 9:15a
Summary
Chris Sale, 37 years old and already climbing the all-time strikeout list, is the main reason to tune in here — and the Braves' strong team profile makes this a solid mid-tier watchability game. The Athletics, meanwhile, are a rough 1-4 to start the season and bring a lineup batting .185 to face one of the better pitchers in the league.
Both pitchers have pNERD scores of 0.00 (no statistical data yet, given the early season), so the gNERD of 11.36 is driven almost entirely by the team side — right around the historical median of 10.10. Atlanta's tNERD of 8.20 is doing the heavy lifting: the Braves bring solid fielding, a good bullpen, and a barrel rate above average. Worth noting, though, is that their luck component is a positive 1.63, suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and may be due for more offense. The Athletics' tNERD of 4.52 reflects a lineup that's been genuinely weak — well below-average batting runs — though their below-market payroll and youth add modest interest.
Sale opened the season with six scoreless innings against Kansas City, fanning six and passing Hall of Famers Bob Feller and Warren Spahn to move to 30th on the all-time strikeout list. After years of injury struggles in Boston, Sale has returned to Cy Young form with Atlanta — at 37, he remains one of the better starters in the game. Severino received a no-decision in his opener, pitching five innings and allowing two runs on three hits and three walks with three strikeouts. This is a series finale with the teams split 1-1, which at least gives it some stakes.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)
Athletics
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -8.8 | 6.0% | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | $135.2M | 28.2 | -4.0 | 1.27 | 1.94 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.65 | -0.34 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.02 | -0.77 | -0.71 | -1.31 | -2.19 | -0.95 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.65 | -0.34 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.52 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 2.6 | 8.5% | -0.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | $249.8M | 30.5 | 5.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.49 | 0.71 | -0.72 | 1.31 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 1.36 | 1.63 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.49 | 0.71 | -0.72 | 1.31 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.20 |
Luis Severino, Athletics
No detailed stats available
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
No detailed stats available
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros, 11:10a
Summary
Garrett Crochet making his second start of 2026 in Houston is genuinely worth your time — he's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Astros are off to a hot offensive start that could actually test him. The gNERD of 11.16 sits right around the historical median, but the underlying pieces make it more appealing than that number suggests.
Crochet finished runner-up to Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young last year, going 18-5 with 255 strikeouts to lead the league. In his season opener, he was back to dominant form — six scoreless innings, eight strikeouts, three hits allowed. This Houston start was already slated as his next outing, where he should build toward a fuller workload. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without statistical data on either starter — Crochet's résumé speaks for itself, while Mike Burrows is a relative unknown quantity.
On the team side, Houston's offense is the real story: a Batting Runs component of +11.2 (the strongest driver of their tNERD of 6.66) pairs with solid baserunning and fielding. Boston's lineup has been below average at the plate so far, though a luck component of +5.0 — meaning they've been underperforming their underlying numbers — suggests some offensive improvement may be coming. Both bullpens are early-season liabilities, which adds some late-game drama potential. A legitimate ace against a legitimate offense: a solid watch.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -3.9 | 8.7% | 0.3 | 0.5 | -2.9 | $263.6M | 29.2 | 5.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.73 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 0.30 | -0.95 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 1.63 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.73 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 0.30 | -0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.63 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 5.65 |
Houston Astros
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 11.2 | 6.4% | 0.8 | 1.2 | -3.0 | $232.7M | 28.9 | -1.0 | 2.17 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Z-score | 2.11 | -0.17 | 0.85 | 0.70 | -0.98 | 0.34 | -0.16 | -0.33 | -0.42 | -0.84 | — | — |
| tNERD | 2.11 | -0.17 | 0.85 | 0.70 | -0.98 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.66 |
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
No detailed stats available
Mike Burrows, Houston Astros
No detailed stats available
Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:07a
Summary
Toronto's lineup is legitimately good, Gausman has been electric to start the year, and this is a series decider — there's enough here to make it worth your time, even if the matchup is lopsided on paper. The Blue Jays come in at 4-1 and bring a tNERD of 8.33, driven by strong batting and fielding numbers, and a luck component suggesting they may actually be underperforming their underlying talent so far.
Gausman turned his Opening Day start into a strikeout clinic, setting a new Blue Jays franchise record with 11 punchouts, surpassing Roy Halladay's mark. His splitter did most of the damage, as he allowed just one hit over six innings. Both pitchers carry a pNERD of 0.00 due to missing statistical data, so the NERD score here leans heavily on team quality.
This is the rubber match of a three-game series, with the teams tied 1-1. Freeland is 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA in two career starts against Toronto — not exactly a confidence-inspiring history. The Blue Jays are also playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Dodgers in Game 7 of the World Series last fall. Colorado's tNERD of 3.37 reflects a below-average offense and a weak bullpen — if Freeland struggles, this one could get ugly fast. The gNERD of 10.85 lands right around the historical median, which feels about right: worth a look for Gausman alone, but don't clear your calendar.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Colorado Rockies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -4.2 | 6.2% | 0.3 | -0.3 | -1.4 | $134.1M | 29.5 | -2.0 | 1.73 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.78 | -0.25 | 0.25 | -0.14 | -0.48 | -0.79 | 0.44 | -0.65 | -1.29 | -1.25 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.78 | -0.25 | 0.25 | -0.14 | -0.48 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.37 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 8.0 | 7.2% | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.2 | $306.1M | 30.1 | 4.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.51 | 0.17 | -0.84 | 1.60 | -0.11 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 1.31 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.51 | 0.17 | -0.84 | 1.60 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.31 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.33 |
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
No detailed stats available
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
No detailed stats available
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p
Summary
This is the Royals' home opener, and with gusts over 30 mph in the forecast, the ball may be flying out of Kauffman Stadium — which is either exciting or terrifying depending on your pitching loyalties. The gNERD of 10.63 lands right at the average for today's slate and near the historical median, making this a perfectly watchable game without being a must-see event.
The Twins come in at 1-3, while the Royals are looking for a win to reach .500 after going 1-2 over the weekend against the Braves. Minnesota's tNERD of 6.36 is boosted by a strong barrel rate, and both teams carry a modest positive luck value suggesting some offensive underperformance that could correct itself. Kansas City adds some appeal through solid baserunning and fielding numbers, though their bats have been below average early on.
Both starters — Joe Ryan and Noah Cameron (LHP) — carry pNERD scores of zero, meaning we simply don't have the underlying stats to evaluate them analytically. The Royals' lineup features star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., and southwest winds gusting over 30 mph may create favorable conditions for home runs, which could make this one livelier than the pitching matchup on paper suggests.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)
Minnesota Twins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -2.5 | 10.0% | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | $122.1M | 28.9 | 2.0 | 2.30 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.46 | 1.34 | -0.47 | 0.36 | -0.05 | -0.92 | -0.06 | 0.65 | -0.17 | -0.69 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.46 | 1.34 | -0.47 | 0.36 | -0.05 | 0.92 | 0.06 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.36 |
Kansas City Royals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -5.4 | 6.3% | 0.9 | 1.4 | -1.5 | $184.5M | 29.7 | 2.0 | 2.11 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.01 | -0.21 | 0.97 | 0.81 | -0.52 | -0.21 | 0.62 | 0.65 | -0.54 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.01 | -0.21 | 0.97 | 0.81 | -0.52 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.91 |
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
No detailed stats available
Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals
No detailed stats available
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p
Summary
I was only able to search for Houser before hitting the search limit. Let me search for Pivetta now.I hit the search limit after the first round of queries. Here's the summary based on what I found for Houser and the available NERD data:
Both pitchers enter with pNERD scores of zero — meaning we're flying blind analytically — which makes this a game where the team-level story does most of the heavy lifting. The Padres' bullpen is a genuine asset here, and their broadcasters rate well, but neither offense looks particularly dangerous early in the season.
Houser signed a two-year, $22M deal with San Francisco this winter after posting a 3.31 ERA and 92 strikeouts across 125 innings between the White Sox and Rays in 2025. He leaned heavily on a sinker — 46% of the time — that topped out at 94.4 mph last season. He's a contact-management guy, not a swing-and-miss arm, which tends to make for workmanlike rather than electric starts.
The Giants' team stats are a drag: their barrel rate ranks among the worst in the data, and their offense has been below average. The Padres aren't much better at the plate, but San Francisco's new manager Tony Vitello — hired directly from a college program without any professional coaching experience — adds an unusual storyline to this early-season series. At a gNERD of 9.59, this sits right around the historical median, making it a perfectly reasonable game to have on in the background, but not one that demands your full attention.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)
San Francisco Giants
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -5.7 | 1.6% | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.9 | $228.3M | 29.6 | 2.0 | 3.20 | 3.49 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.06 | -2.18 | 0.25 | 0.19 | -0.33 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.65 | 1.59 | 2.34 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.06 | -2.18 | 0.25 | 0.19 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 4.00 | 3.48 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -9.0 | 4.3% | 0.6 | 1.1 | 3.6 | $255.5M | 29.9 | -1.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.68 | -1.05 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 1.08 | 0.60 | 0.85 | -0.33 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.68 | -1.05 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 5.70 |
Adrian Houser, San Francisco Giants
No detailed stats available
Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres
No detailed stats available
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:05a
Summary
Cade Cavalli is the real reason to watch this one — a former first-round pick who survived Tommy John surgery, multiple setbacks, and nearly three years away from the majors, now in just his second career start at Citizens Bank Park with a live arm and something to prove. The gNERD of 9.31 sits right around the historical median, and with both pitchers carrying pNERD scores of 0 (no statistical data available yet this early in the season), the numbers are doing less work than usual.
Cavalli encountered multiple setbacks following his March 2023 Tommy John surgery, going nearly three years between major-league appearances before rejoining the Nationals' rotation in August 2025. His velocity not only returned but improved — he averaged 97 mph with his four-seamer — and he generated plenty of swings and misses, posting a whiff rate in the 72nd percentile. He made his first Opening Day start this year, and this is just his second outing of 2026.
On the team side, Washington's youth is a genuine asset — Cavalli himself is just 27, and the Nationals' average age of 27.1 is one of the youngest in the league, which contributes positively to their tNERD. The Phillies counter with a solid bullpen and above-average broadcasters, but their offense is off to a sluggish start with negative batting and barrel-rate components. Neither team is setting the world on fire by the numbers, but Cavalli's story gives this game a narrative hook that the raw scores don't fully capture.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Washington Nationals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 5.8 | 7.4% | -1.0 | -2.0 | -3.6 | $114.5M | 27.1 | -4.0 | 2.00 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.09 | 0.25 | -1.32 | -1.10 | -1.17 | -1.01 | -1.71 | -1.31 | -0.75 | -0.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.09 | 0.25 | -1.32 | -1.10 | -1.17 | 1.01 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.48 |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -4.9 | 5.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | $309.8M | 30.5 | 0.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.91 | -0.42 | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.73 | 1.22 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.91 | -0.42 | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 4.15 |
Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals
No detailed stats available
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies
No detailed stats available
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles, 9:35a
Summary
Rogers looks like the real deal, and a hot Rangers offense chasing a series sweep makes this a watchable series finale — though Baltimore's battered roster and Eovaldi's rocky start temper expectations.
This is a series closer with some genuine texture. Texas comes in at 4-1 with a four-game winning streak, looking for the sweep after an 8-5 win Tuesday. Baltimore is 2-3, trying to salvage something from a stumbling opening homestand. The Rangers' tNERD of 5.76 is solid, driven by above-average batting runs and a strong bullpen. Baltimore's 0.92 tNERD is a drag — Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg are both on the IL, and Zach Eflin is likely headed there too after a right elbow injury Tuesday.
Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of zero due to missing data, so we lean on context. Rogers went 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA over 109.2 innings last season, though an early injury kept him from award consideration. He opened 2026 with seven scoreless innings against Minnesota, allowing three hits and four walks while striking out five. Eovaldi, meanwhile, struggled in his first start, allowing five earned runs over 4.2 innings — though he's 9-3 in 20 career starts against Baltimore. A mid-tier gNERD of 8.34 — below the historical median of ~10 — feels about right for a game where one starter is bouncing back and the other team is quietly falling apart.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)
Texas Rangers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 4.7 | 6.1% | -0.1 | 0.3 | 4.0 | $201.9M | 30.3 | -2.0 | 2.01 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.89 | -0.29 | -0.23 | 0.19 | 1.20 | -0.01 | 1.17 | -0.65 | -0.74 | -0.65 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.89 | -0.29 | -0.23 | 0.19 | 1.20 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.76 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.9 | 3.5% | -0.7 | -3.5 | 3.7 | $214.8M | 29.0 | 0.0 | 2.82 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.35 | -1.39 | -0.96 | -1.94 | 1.11 | 0.14 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.85 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.35 | -1.39 | -0.96 | -1.94 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.92 |
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
No detailed stats available
Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles
No detailed stats available
Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p
Summary
The on-paper pitching matchup here is better than the gNERD score of 6.90 suggests — Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner, is as good as it gets. But both teams enter as below-average clubs by the numbers, and the NERD formula knows it.
Both pitcher pNERD scores are zeroed out due to insufficient early-season data, which drags this game's 6.90 gNERD toward the lower end of today's slate and well below the historical median of around 10. What we do know: Skubal is making his second start of 2026 looking to go back-to-back to open the season, after allowing zero earned runs across six innings in his season opener against the Padres. On the other side, Gallen surrendered the 10th-highest barrel percentage among qualified starters in 2025 and allowed three barrels in just four innings in his 2026 debut. Arizona's tNERD of 1.16 is dragged down by a brutal baserunning component and a weak bullpen, while Detroit's 2.65 is similarly unimpressive — negative marks across batting, baserunning, and the bullpen. The Diamondbacks finished 80-82 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Watch for Skubal; skip everything else.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -4.0 | 8.0% | -0.7 | -0.1 | -2.2 | $239.2M | 29.6 | -6.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.75 | 0.50 | -0.96 | -0.03 | -0.73 | 0.42 | 0.58 | -1.96 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.75 | 0.50 | -0.96 | -0.03 | -0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 2.65 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.1 | 5.0% | -1.7 | 1.3 | -2.7 | $231.6M | 30.2 | -2.0 | 2.19 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.21 | -0.76 | -2.16 | 0.75 | -0.89 | 0.33 | 1.08 | -0.65 | -0.39 | -0.99 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.21 | -0.76 | -2.16 | 0.75 | -0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.16 |
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
No detailed stats available
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
No detailed stats available
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:40a
Summary
The real draw here is Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, looking to erase the memory of the worst start of his career. That storyline alone makes this worth a look, even if the team-level numbers don't exactly scream must-watch.
The gNERD of 6.72 sits at the bottom of today's slate and near the low end historically (5th percentile is 5.47, so it's not a disaster, but it's not competing for your attention either). The Pirates' tNERD of -0.73 is the lowest team score in today's games — their barrel rate and bullpen are both well below average, and their fielding hasn't helped matters. Skenes threw just 37 pitches and recorded only two outs in his opener, allowing five runs on four hits with two walks and one strikeout — the first time since at least 1900 that a Pirates starter didn't make it through a full inning on Opening Day. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without underlying stats, but the résumés speak for themselves. In five career starts against Cincinnati, Skenes owns a 0.31 ERA over 29 innings with 40 strikeouts and just one earned run — a favorable venue for a bounce-back. Abbott finished eighth in 2025 NL Cy Young voting after going 10-7 with a 2.87 FIP-adjacent ERA, and was in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate and 84th in exit velocity, with a stellar 6.3% walk rate. The Reds' luck component (5.0) suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and could be due for better offensive results — potentially useful against a pitcher with something to prove.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -0.6 | 1.5% | -0.4 | -3.2 | -6.8 | $119.1M | 28.8 | 3.0 | 2.01 | 1.98 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.11 | -2.22 | -0.60 | -1.77 | -2.17 | -0.96 | -0.20 | 0.98 | -0.74 | -0.86 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.11 | -2.22 | -0.60 | -1.77 | -2.17 | 0.96 | 0.20 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | -0.73 |
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -3.8 | 9.1% | -1.1 | -3.3 | 0.1 | $147.4M | 28.0 | 5.0 | 2.09 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.71 | 0.96 | -1.44 | -1.83 | -0.02 | -0.63 | -0.94 | 1.63 | -0.59 | -0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.71 | 0.96 | -1.44 | -1.83 | -0.02 | 0.63 | 0.94 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
No detailed stats available
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
No detailed stats available
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MLB: What to watch on March 31, 2026