MLB: What to watch on April 6, 2026

• 06 April 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

The Marlins are the most compelling story in today's slate, and their tNERD of 11.74 is the highest of any team in today's games — a genuinely eye-catching number that reflects a young, cheap, and legitimately productive club. The pitching matchup, however, is where this game's gNERD of 14.27 — the top score among today's games — earns an asterisk.

Brandon Williamson comes in at 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA so far this season, and with pNERD scores of 0 for both starters, there's no underlying statistical case to make for either arm. Hunter Greene is on the 60-day IL following elbow surgery, and Nick Lodolo is also sidelined with a finger injury, leaving Cincinnati's rotation looking thin. What saves this game's watchability is Miami's offense: the Marlins carry a .276 team average (third in MLB) and score 5.4 runs per game (fifth in baseball). Their tNERD is driven by strong batting and baserunning runs, an elite payroll efficiency (just $81.5M), and a roster averaging just 27.4 years old. The Reds' luck component is notably high (+1.53), suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and are due for offensive improvement — which is good news given Cincinnati has ranked 29th in runs scored this season. Elly De La Cruz is always worth watching, and a young Marlins team with something to prove makes this worth a look despite the shaky pitching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins

Brandon Williamson, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

A 41-year-old Hall of Famer making his second start of the season faces the team he helped beat in the World Series — that's a storyline you don't need to manufacture. The Dodgers bring one of the most potent lineups in baseball into Rogers Centre, and the Blue Jays counter with a living legend chasing history.

After the Blue Jays lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Dodgers, Scherzer made it clear he hadn't thrown his last pitch. He wasn't bluffing. He rejoined the organization on a one-year, $3 million deal and made his first meaningful start since that Game 7 just days ago. In doing so, he became the oldest pitcher to log six or more innings since R.A. Dickey did so in 2016. He's 37 innings away from 3,000 for his career, so every start has a little odometer-watching attached.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 9.69 is elite — their barrel rate and batting runs rank near the top of the league, making them a genuine stress test for any pitcher. Toronto's luck component (+5.0) suggests the Blue Jays may be due for some positive regression at the plate. With a gNERD of 13.34 — well above the historical 75th percentile — this one is worth your time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Toronto Blue Jays

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

The Brewers bring a genuinely fun offensive profile to Fenway, and watching Woodruff navigate his injury-riddled comeback story while Bello tries to forget his season opener makes this a game worth having on. Milwaukee's gNERD of 13.33 ranks near the 75th percentile of today's slate and historically, which is solid without being exceptional.

Milwaukee's tNERD of 10.72 is the real engine here. The Brewers' offense has done the little things well, with contributions spread across the lineup — Contreras, Turang, and Yelich all hitting, with role players holding their own too. That shows up in Milwaukee's standout baserunning (z-score: +2.22) and solid batting runs, while a young roster (average age 27.7) adds some upside. Boston's tNERD of 5.94 is more middling — their barrel rate is a bright spot, but the bullpen has been a liability, and the injury list is crowded, with Johan Oviedo, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck all out. Boston's luck component (+1.53) suggests their offense has been underperforming their underlying numbers, so some positive regression may be coming.

Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00 — no statistical data available yet — but the storylines are there. Woodruff is something of a marvel: he came back from serious shoulder surgery posting a 32.3% strikeout rate and 3.20 ERA in 2025, then his season ended with a lat injury, and he went out in his first 2026 start and dominated again. The Brewers will keep a close eye on his workload, especially early on. Meanwhile, Bello's only start this season saw him roughed up for six runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out just two over 4⅔ innings. That's a tough baseline to build from, though his career 4.18 FIP suggests he's better than that.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Milwaukee Brewers

Boston Red Sox

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Two rebuilding clubs with young rosters, a Cardinals team quietly outplaying its payroll, and a Nationals bullpen that's been a genuine disaster — this game has enough going on to make it worth a look. The gNERD of 11.32 sits just above the historical median, and the Cardinals' tNERD of 8.26 is genuinely strong, driven by above-average baserunning and fielding, and a roster age of 26.9 that ranks among the youngest in the sport.

Washington enters on a five-game losing streak at 3-6, while St. Louis comes in at 5-4. The Nationals' bullpen is the most glaring issue: their -2.02 bullpen component is the worst in today's games, meaning late innings could get ugly in a hurry. Washington moved on from MacKenzie Gore this offseason and already has Trevor Williams and DJ Herz on the IL, leaving the rotation thin. Nationals injuries also include Josiah Gray and Paxton Schultz on the IL with elbow issues.

Both starters have pNERD scores of 0.00 — no underlying stats to evaluate — but Pallante enters having thrown five scoreless innings against the Mets in his first start. Manager Marmol has said he's seeing the best version of Pallante, with his five-pitch mix — including a four-seamer and slider — reportedly in midseason form. Littell, meanwhile, holds a 0-1 record with a 5.40 ERA through his first outing. In their last ten head-to-head meetings, St. Louis holds a 7-3 edge, and last season the Cardinals took five of six from Washington. A fine game for a quiet afternoon — just don't count on the Nats' bullpen to keep it that way.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Jacob deGrom is only his second start of 2026, and he's already experimenting with a sinker he hasn't thrown since 2019 — making this a genuinely interesting pitching watch regardless of what the numbers say. The gNERD of 11.32 lands right around the middle of today's slate and just above the historical median, which is about right for a game where both pitchers have no statistical data available yet (pNERD of 0.00 for both).

The deGrom storyline carries most of the weight here. He was scratched from his originally scheduled season debut due to neck stiffness, then allowed three runs in 4 2/3 innings against Baltimore in his first outing, striking out seven without a walk. More compelling for the long haul: deGrom has brought back a sinker pitch for the first time since the 2019 season with the Mets, sitting around 96-97 mph with 15 inches of run to his arm side. He's also only 142 strikeouts from 2,000 for his career.

Both bullpens grade out well, with Seattle's pen the stronger driver of the Mariners' tNERD. The Rangers carry a luck value just at the threshold worth noting — they're slightly outperforming their underlying numbers early, so some regression is plausible. Logan Gilbert is a solid, dependable arm, but without early-season stats, this game lives or dies on deGrom's continued evolution.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

The Astros bring one of the most potent offenses in baseball to Coors Field, which is either a feature or a bug depending on your taste for high-scoring affairs. With both pitchers carrying zero pNERD scores — meaning we have no meaningful statistical profile for either — the watchability here leans heavily on Houston's offense and the thin air of Denver.

The Astros (6-4) visit the Rockies (3-6) at Coors Field, and the team-level stats tell a lopsided story. Houston's tNERD of 9.15 is well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by a batting runs z-score of nearly 2.9 and strong baserunning. Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with a .400 average and four home runs early in the season. Colorado's tNERD of 3.02 is below average, with poor batting and baserunning numbers dragging them down — though a solid bullpen provides some cushion.

The Astros' luck component (+4.0) suggests they may actually be underperforming their underlying numbers, meaning the offense could be even better than it looks. On the injury front, Hunter Brown is on the 15-day IL with a shoulder injury, and Josh Hader is also on the IL with a biceps issue, thinning Houston's pitching depth. Feltner himself was listed day-to-day with a right glute contusion heading in. At 11.09, the gNERD sits right around the historical median — a perfectly watchable game, but mostly for the Astros' bats doing Coors Field things.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Colorado Rockies

Cody Bolton, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

This game is a decent watch mostly on the strength of the Padres' bullpen and the novelty of Bubba Chandler's early-career starts — but don't expect the pitching matchup itself to carry the load. The Padres' rotation is thin enough that they're sending their No. 5 starter in Márquez to open this series, and Márquez enters with a 3.00 WHIP and just one strikeout on the young season — not exactly a comfort. Chandler is a rookie making his first appearances, so both starters carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning there's simply no statistical track record to lean on here.

On the team side, San Diego's bullpen is the real asset — their Bullpen Runs rank well above average and the pen is the primary driver of the Padres' solid tNERD of 7.06. The Pirates, meanwhile, are 6-3 and have won five straight, buoyed by a rotation that has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of their last eight starts — though their own bullpen is a liability, ranking below average in Bullpen Runs.

At a gNERD of 10.34, this game sits right at the historical median and in the middle of today's slate — watchable, but nothing you'd rearrange your evening for. Come back tomorrow when Paul Skenes takes the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates

Germán Márquez, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Chris Sale is the main draw here — a 37-year-old Cy Young winner who opened the season by throwing one-hit ball while sick, and has since signed an extension through 2027. The Angels, however, present a decidedly less compelling counterpart.

The Braves come in with a strong tNERD of 7.94, well above the historical average, powered by a high barrel rate, solid fielding, and a reliable bullpen. After a disastrous 2025 that saw them lose their first seven games and miss the playoffs, Atlanta is off to a 4-2 start and looking like a different team. Sale won his first Cy Young Award in 2024, and shook off an illness to allow just one baserunner in six innings in his most recent start. With a pNERD of 0.00, we're working without his underlying stats, but his track record speaks loudly enough.

The Angels, by contrast, post a tNERD of just 2.51 — below the historical 25th percentile. Their offense is negative across batting and baserunning, and their fielding is a genuine liability. José Soriano also comes in with a pNERD of 0.00, leaving his side of the matchup something of a mystery. The Angels' bullpen is a modest bright spot, but it's hard to get excited about much else in Anaheim. This game is essentially Sale carrying the watchability on his back.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Angels

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:10p

Summary

A solid mid-tier divisional matchup between two AL Central clubs with something to prove early in the season. The Royals arrive banged up — Kansas City is already juggling a 60-day IL stint for Alec Marsh (shoulder), plus Bailey Falter (elbow), Carlos Estévez (foot), James McArthur (elbow), and Stephen Kolek (oblique) all on the shelf — while Bobby Witt Jr., a two-time 30-homer hitter and 2024 AL batting champ, has yet to record an extra-base hit this season.

Both pitchers have pNERD scores of 0, meaning we're working without statistical grounding on them. Wacha's lone start was encouraging — six shutout innings against Atlanta, allowing three hits and a walk with seven strikeouts — though he was scratched from his most recent scheduled start due to illness. Bibee has historically fared well against Kansas City, going 4-0 in eight career starts, though his last outing lasted only four innings in a loss to the Dodgers.

On the team side, Cleveland's tNERD (6.02) gets a boost from its young, budget roster — José Ramírez is dealing with a sprained wrist, which is worth monitoring. Both teams carry a positive luck component of 0.75, suggesting each is modestly underperforming their underlying numbers and may hit better than early results indicate. The gNERD of 10.09 sits right at the historical median — a perfectly watchable divisional game, nothing more.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Two early-season also-rans meet in Chicago, and with Baltimore's starter still TBD and no statistical data available on Grant Taylor, there's a lot of uncertainty baked into this one — and not the exciting kind. The gNERD of 8.93 lands below the historical median of 10.1 and in the bottom half of today's games, which tells you most of what you need to know.

The Orioles enter having lost three straight, with an 0-3 road record, and after getting swept in Pittsburgh — though Pete Alonso has been a bright spot in his first season with Baltimore. The Baltimore tNERD of 3.00 reflects real weaknesses: poor fielding, below-average barrel rates, and lackluster baserunning. The one saving grace is a luck component suggesting the Orioles have been underperforming their underlying numbers and may be due for some positive regression.

Chicago has named Grant Taylor as their starter; he carries a 2.25 ERA and six strikeouts through early action, and previously served as an opener against Toronto — nine pitches, nine strikes in that outing. But with pNERD scores of 0 for both pitchers (no statistical data available), the pitching matchup is essentially a black box. The White Sox carry a team FIP of 5.14, which doesn't inspire confidence in the staff behind Taylor either. Unless you're a die-hard fan of one of these clubs, today's slate has better options.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Baltimore Orioles

Chicago White Sox

Grant Taylor, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays, 1:10p

Summary

The real story here isn't the gNERD score — it's Shane McClanahan taking the mound at a newly-reopened Tropicana Field, making just his second start in nearly three years. Two compelling storylines collide in one game, and that's worth your time regardless of what the numbers say.

This game sits at 8.68 on the gNERD scale — below the historical median of around 10.1 and on the lower end of today's slate — driven largely by a middling average team score. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we have no underlying statistical data to evaluate them on. But the lack of numbers on McClanahan is entirely explainable: he missed all of 2024 to Tommy John surgery, then a freak nerve issue in his left triceps wiped out 2025 before it started. It was August 2023 the last time he pitched in a regular-season game, and in his return last week in Milwaukee, he cruised through four hitless innings averaging 95.4 mph on his fastball. He's still building stamina, but the stuff is there.

The venue adds another layer: Tropicana Field is open for baseball again after more than 18 months of repairs following Hurricane Milton, and a sellout crowd of about 25,000 will be on hand. The Trop has been typically ridiculed as MLB's worst venue, yet players and fans can't wait to get back indoors after a season at their temporary digs.

On the team side, the Cubs bring solid baserunning and fielding, plus above-average broadcasters. The Rays' tNERD of 1.87 is weighed down by poor fielding and a low barrel rate, and their mild positive luck score suggests they may be slightly underperforming their underlying numbers. Neither team's bullpen is a selling point. Watch for McClanahan — the storyline is the thing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Tampa Bay Rays

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

No detailed stats available

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Andrew Painter's first few starts are the main reason to tune into this one — a 22-year-old with a mid-90s fastball and a nasty breaking ball, making just his second career MLB start after a long road back from Tommy John surgery. The Giants' offense, however, offers little resistance on the other side of the ledger.

Painter only debuted on March 31, capping a long road back from Tommy John surgery. In that debut, he threw 5⅓ innings, allowing one run on four hits and one walk while striking out eight. He mixed curves, sweepers, and sliders with a fastball that nearly touched 100 mph — the kind of arsenal that makes a start worth watching regardless of the opponent. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, reflecting a lack of statistical data for this early in the season, so those scores shouldn't be read as a statement on talent.

The Giants' tNERD of 1.62 is a drag on this game's watchability, and the underlying numbers tell you why: their barrel rate and batting runs are both well below average, making them a lineup that's genuinely hard to watch on offense right now. The Phillies (tNERD: 5.61) bring a solid bullpen and a luck score suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers — meaning improvement may be coming. The game's gNERD of 8.62 sits in the lower third of today's slate and below the historical median, which tracks: a promising young arm against a weak offense is a fine watch, but it's not the most compelling game on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Philadelphia Phillies

San Francisco Giants

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

No detailed stats available

Adrian Houser, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of today's watchability range, and the numbers back up that assessment. The more compelling storyline may be Casey Mize pitching for his next contract, but one interesting pitcher does not a great game make.

The gNERD of 7.49 is the lowest among today's games and lands in the bottom quarter historically. Much of the drag comes from Minnesota: the Twins dropped four of six in their first full week, and the team stats reflect a club that is genuinely struggling — negative fielding runs, negative baserunning runs, and a batting line well below average. Detroit is the more watchable side, carrying a solid barrel rate (z-score: +1.55) that suggests real power potential even if the overall offense is modest.

Mize enters free agency at season's end, making 2026 a contract year, and he got one of the best starts of his career in his first outing of the campaign. Both pitchers have pNERD scores of 0.00 due to missing statistical data, so we're flying somewhat blind on their underlying skills, though Ryan's career K/BB ratio of 4.86 and FIP of 3.70 across 650 innings suggest he has real stuff when he's on. Minnesota is also without Pablo López for the season after elbow surgery, and David Festa remains out with a shoulder issue, leaving the rotation thin behind Ryan. Both teams are banged up, the Twins' offense has been anemic, and the cold at Target Field won't help anyone. Worth a glance if you're a Tigers or Twins fan; otherwise, there are better games on today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

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  MLB: What to watch on April 5, 2026