Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on April 7, 2026

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
13.1 3:40p Cincinnati Reds 6.4 Miami Marlins 9.8 Andrew Abbott No data Sandy Alcantara No data
12.8 4:07p Los Angeles Dodgers 10.0 Toronto Blue Jays 5.7 Yoshinobu Yamamoto No data Kevin Gausman No data
12.3 3:45p Milwaukee Brewers 9.3 Boston Red Sox 5.4 Jacob Misiorowski No data Garrett Crochet No data
12.1 4:05p Athletics 5.1 New York Yankees 9.0 Aaron Civale No data Cam Schlittler No data
11.6 3:40p San Diego Padres 8.3 Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 Nick Pivetta No data Paul Skenes No data
11.2 3:45p St. Louis Cardinals 7.2 Washington Nationals 5.3 Matthew Liberatore No data Cade Cavalli No data
10.9 5:40p Houston Astros 8.3 Colorado Rockies 3.4 Mike Burrows No data Kyle Freeland No data
10.8 5:05p Seattle Mariners 5.5 Texas Rangers 6.1 George Kirby No data Nathan Eovaldi No data
10.6 10:10a Kansas City Royals 5.2 Cleveland Guardians 6.0 Noah Cameron No data Gavin Williams No data
10.0 6:38p Atlanta Braves 7.8 Los Angeles Angels 2.3 Reynaldo López No data Yusei Kikuchi No data
9.9 1:10p Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2 New York Mets 7.6 Zac Gallen No data Freddy Peralta No data
9.1 3:40p Chicago Cubs 5.4 Tampa Bay Rays 2.8 Javier Assad No data Drew Rasmussen No data
8.8 6:45p Philadelphia Phillies 6.5 San Francisco Giants 1.0 Cristopher Sánchez No data Robbie Ray No data
8.6 12:10p Baltimore Orioles 2.9 Chicago White Sox 4.3 Trevor Rogers No data Shane Smith No data
8.1 4:40p Detroit Tigers 5.4 Minnesota Twins 0.8 Tarik Skubal No data Taj Bradley No data

Notes:

Detail

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Let me search for Sandy Alcantara's status separately.I'll work with what I have from the first search and my existing knowledge about Sandy Alcantara, who had Tommy John surgery in late 2024 and was working back in 2025-2026.

Sandy Alcantara returning from Tommy John surgery is the real headline here, and the Marlins' surprisingly strong team profile makes this more watchable than you might expect from a team that's spent recent years in rebuild mode. This game tops today's gNERD leaderboard at 13.11, landing around the 75th percentile historically — not a must-see classic, but a legitimate reason to keep a tab open.

Abbott heads into Miami having posted a 9:4 K:BB over 11.2 innings across his first two starts, still looking for his first win of 2026. The pNERD scores of 0.00 for both pitchers reflect missing statistical data rather than any judgment on quality — both are legitimate arms.

Miami's tNERD of 9.85 is doing the heavy lifting here. Abbott features a sweeper heavily against lefty hitters, holding same-side batters to a .185/.224/.272 line — useful against a Marlins lineup that skews young. The Marlins' strong baserunning (1.50 component) and a youthful roster (average age 27.4) add energy. Meanwhile, the Reds carry a significant positive luck component of 1.65, suggesting their offense has been underperforming its underlying numbers and is due for improvement — which could make for a livelier game than Cincinnati's -1.10 batting component implies.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -11.1 7.9% 0.3 -2.0 3.6 $147.4M 28.0 7.0 2.09 2.11
Z-score -1.10 0.10 0.16 -0.62 0.60 -0.63 -0.94 1.65 -0.59 -0.59
tNERD -1.10 0.10 0.16 -0.62 0.60 0.63 0.94 1.65 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.36

Miami Marlins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 4.9 7.4% 1.9 1.0 4.6 $81.5M 27.4 0.0 1.79 1.66
Z-score 0.49 -0.15 1.50 0.35 0.78 -1.39 -1.49 -0.02 -1.17 -1.54
tNERD 0.49 -0.15 1.50 0.35 0.78 1.39 1.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.85

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

The reigning World Series MVP takes the mound against one of the game's craftiest veterans, and the Dodgers bring one of the highest team NERD scores of any team in the historical dataset — this one has plenty going for it. Both pitchers have pNERD scores of zero due to missing early-season data, but don't let that fool you.

Yamamoto was outstanding in 2025, posting a 2.49 ERA with 201 strikeouts across 173⅔ innings, then went 5-1 with a 1.45 ERA in the postseason — including multiple complete games and a World Series MVP performance. Through his first two starts of 2026, he's allowed four runs on nine hits with eight strikeouts over 12 innings — quietly solid. Notably, the Dodgers won back-to-back World Series titles, and Yamamoto's postseason heroics included back-to-back complete games against the Blue Jays specifically. So there's a small revenge-game subplot for Toronto fans.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 10.01 is among the very highest in the historical data — driven by elite batting runs, a strong barrel rate, and solid fielding. The Blue Jays offer a counterpoint: their fielding is a genuine strength, and a luck score of 5.0 suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and may be due for better offensive output. The gNERD of 12.84 sits comfortably in the top quartile historically. Worth your time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 22.7 11.3% -0.3 3.6 4.2 $413.5M 30.0 1.0 2.45 2.51
Z-score 2.27 1.78 -0.35 1.18 0.71 2.41 0.90 0.22 0.12 0.26
tNERD 2.27 1.78 -0.35 1.18 0.71 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.06 0.13 4.00 10.01

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -3.3 5.9% 0.0 4.1 -1.2 $306.1M 30.1 5.0 3.10 2.39
Z-score -0.32 -0.89 -0.10 1.34 -0.25 1.18 0.99 1.17 1.40 0.01
tNERD -0.32 -0.89 -0.10 1.34 -0.25 0.00 0.00 1.17 0.70 0.00 4.00 5.66

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Two of the more compelling young arms in baseball square off here, and Milwaukee's 7-2 record against Boston's 2-7 start adds a layer of competitive contrast that makes this worth your time.

Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00 due to missing statistical data, but don't let that fool you — this matchup has real substance. Misiorowski is leading a Brewers rotation "long on promise but short on experience," and he's delivered so far: through two starts he's 1-0 with 18 strikeouts — tied for second in the majors. He throws super hard, and his mid-90s slider has been the key to unlocking his best starts, helping him stay mechanically sound on other pitches. Command remains the question mark, but the strikeout upside is real.

Milwaukee's tNERD of 9.30 is the engine here — their baserunning runs rank among the best, and they're a young, budget-conscious team that plays the game well. Boston's tNERD of 5.36 is buoyed by a meaningful luck component (positive luck → underperforming their underlying numbers, so improvement may be coming), though their bullpen has been a drag. The Brewers sit at 7-2, the Red Sox at 2-7 — a gap that reflects the underlying numbers pretty well. At a gNERD of 12.33, this game sits comfortably in the top quartile of today's slate and historically.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 15.1 7.1% 2.6 -2.4 2.2 $139.3M 27.7 -6.0 2.66 2.56
Z-score 1.51 -0.30 2.09 -0.75 0.35 -0.73 -1.21 -1.44 0.53 0.37
tNERD 1.51 -0.30 2.09 -0.75 0.35 0.73 1.21 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 9.30

Boston Red Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -3.5 8.2% 0.3 1.5 -3.9 $263.6M 29.2 5.0 2.47 2.64
Z-score -0.34 0.25 0.16 0.51 -0.73 0.70 0.17 1.17 0.16 0.54
tNERD -0.34 0.25 0.16 0.51 -0.73 0.00 0.00 1.17 0.08 0.27 4.00 5.36

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

The main draw here is Cam Schlittler, a 25-year-old in his first full season who has been genuinely difficult to ignore: no runs, no walks, 15 strikeouts across his first two starts. The Yankees' barrel rate (a whopping 2.92 standard deviations above average) suggests the offense can back him up if needed, and their bullpen has been solid too, making New York's tNERD of 9.03 one of the better team scores you'll see.

Schlittler already set a Yankees franchise record — the first pitcher to allow zero runs and zero walks while recording at least 15 strikeouts over a two-game span. This is also his home debut at Yankee Stadium. The one catch: both pitchers have pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without underlying statistical data to validate whether Schlittler's early dominance reflects true skill.

On the other side, Aaron Civale is on his sixth team and is 1-5 with a 6.35 FIP against the Yankees in seven career starts — not exactly a formula for keeping this game close. The A's tNERD of 5.07 is middling, though their younger roster and decent barrel rate add some watchability floor.

At a gNERD of 12.05 — above the historical 75th percentile — this game earns its score mostly on the strength of Schlittler's early-season buzz and a Yankees lineup built to punish mistakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Athletics

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -3.3 8.8% 0.2 -0.6 -2.8 $135.2M 28.2 -4.0 1.27 1.94
Z-score -0.32 0.55 0.07 -0.17 -0.54 -0.77 -0.71 -0.97 -2.19 -0.95
tNERD -0.32 0.55 0.07 -0.17 -0.54 0.77 0.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.07

New York Yankees

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 3.0 13.6% 0.6 0.0 7.9 $337.1M 29.9 -5.0 2.08 2.22
Z-score 0.31 2.92 0.41 0.03 1.37 1.54 0.85 -1.21 -0.61 -0.36
tNERD 0.31 2.92 0.41 0.03 1.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.03

Aaron Civale, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

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San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, takes the mound for just his third start of 2026 — and the story of his early season alone is worth tuning in for. The Padres counter with Nick Pivetta, and while neither pitcher has enough 2026 data for a pNERD score yet, the matchup carries real weight.

Skenes is trying to overcome a rough start to the season after an incredible 2025 campaign in which he posted a 1.97 ERA with 216 strikeouts. His Opening Day outing against the Mets was arguably the worst of his career — pulled after recording just two outs, struggling with command and hurt by defensive miscues, allowing five earned runs. He bounced back against the Reds with five solid innings, allowing one run on three hits and striking out five, so this is his third start in what feels like a redemption arc for one of the game's best arms.

On the team side, San Diego's tNERD of 8.27 is well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by a strong bullpen and standout broadcaster ratings. Pittsburgh's 4.92 is more modest, though Skenes enters 2026 with a career 29.1% strikeout rate and a 3.15 xFIP, suggesting the underlying talent is very much still there. The Pirates also carry a notable positive luck score, meaning they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and are due for better results. At a gNERD of 11.59 — solidly above the historical median — this one is worth your attention.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -7.0 6.4% 1.6 2.0 9.1 $255.5M 29.9 -2.0 3.47 3.37
Z-score -0.69 -0.64 1.25 0.67 1.58 0.60 0.85 -0.49 2.12 2.09
tNERD -0.69 -0.64 1.25 0.67 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 1.04 4.00 8.27

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 2.6 5.8% 0.1 -0.4 -3.3 $119.1M 28.8 5.0 2.01 1.98
Z-score 0.27 -0.94 -0.01 -0.10 -0.63 -0.96 -0.20 1.17 -0.74 -0.86
tNERD 0.27 -0.94 -0.01 -0.10 -0.63 0.96 0.20 1.17 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.92

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

I notice that the ESPN snippet mentions Liberatore heading to the IL with back tightness, which is significant. Let me now compose the summary using what I've found.

With Liberatore potentially unavailable due to back tightness and both pitchers carrying zero statistical data for pNERD purposes, the storyline here is less about the mound and more about two young, rebuilding rosters trying to prove they belong. Still, the Cardinals' team profile makes this game worth a look.

The Cardinals look quite different from their 2025 incarnation, with big names like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan all gone via trade. What remains is a genuinely young roster — St. Louis's age component is one of the stronger drivers of their tNERD of 7.20, and their defense is legitimately good (fielding runs component: +1.51). The Nationals (tNERD: 5.26) bring some offensive pop — their batting runs component is a solid +1.36 — but their bullpen is a liability, clocking in at -2.32, the worst component on either side. If this game gets to the late innings close, Washington's relief corps could make it interesting in the worst possible way.

Both pitchers show pNERD of 0.00, meaning we're flying blind statistically. Liberatore was recently placed on the IL with back tightness, so a replacement arm may be on the mound for St. Louis. Liberatore had added a splitter to his arsenal this spring — a development worth tracking whenever he does return. At 11.23, the gNERD sits just above the historical median of 10.10, making this a perfectly watchable middle-of-the-pack game, though not one you'd rearrange your evening for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -5.2 7.0% 0.8 4.6 -5.5 $111.2M 26.9 -7.0 2.17 2.15
Z-score -0.51 -0.35 0.58 1.51 -1.02 -1.05 -1.94 -1.68 -0.43 -0.50
tNERD -0.51 -0.35 0.58 1.51 -1.02 1.05 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.20

Washington Nationals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 13.6 7.6% 0.0 -1.2 -12.8 $114.5M 27.1 -3.0 2.00 2.20
Z-score 1.36 -0.05 -0.10 -0.36 -2.32 -1.01 -1.71 -0.73 -0.75 -0.40
tNERD 1.36 -0.05 -0.10 -0.36 -2.32 1.01 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.26

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

No detailed stats available

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

The Astros bring one of baseball's most potent offenses to Coors Field, which is basically asking a fire to bring its own kindling — and the series opener already went 9-7, so buckle up. Houston's tNERD of 8.32 is the real engine here, driven by a batting runs component that ranks near the top of any game in recent history.

Houston is averaging 7.00 runs per game and Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with four home runs while slugging .794. The problem is the pitching: the Astros carry a 6.03 ERA over their last 10 games, and Josh Hader is among several arms currently on the IL. Houston's bullpen runs component (-1.84) is the one real drag on their tNERD.

Both starters carry pNERD scores of 0.00 — no underlying statistical data available — so we're flying somewhat blind there. Burrows enters at 1-1 with a 1.78 WHIP and 12 strikeouts, while Freeland is 0-1 with a 1.39 WHIP and eight strikeouts. Coors Field will do what Coors Field does regardless.

Colorado's tNERD of 3.40 reflects a lineup that's been genuinely rough, coming off a 43-119 season in 2025. The gNERD of 10.86 lands right around the historical median, which feels about right: one very good offense, one shaky one, two pitchers we can't fully evaluate, and a ballpark that inflates everything.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 29.0 8.9% 1.5 1.2 -10.1 $232.7M 28.9 4.0 2.17 1.99
Z-score 2.90 0.59 1.16 0.41 -1.84 0.34 -0.16 0.94 -0.42 -0.84
tNERD 2.90 0.59 1.16 0.41 -1.84 0.00 0.16 0.94 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.32

Colorado Rockies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -14.3 6.8% -1.3 0.3 8.9 $134.1M 29.5 -4.0 1.73 1.80
Z-score -1.42 -0.45 -1.19 0.12 1.55 -0.79 0.44 -0.97 -1.29 -1.25
tNERD -1.42 -0.45 -1.19 0.12 1.55 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.40

Mike Burrows, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Two capable pitchers trying to find their footing early in 2026 make this a watchable — if not unmissable — game, with both bullpens ranking among the better ones in baseball adding a genuine safety net if either starter struggles.

Both pNERD scores sit at zero, meaning we're working without pitcher statistical data for 2026, so the team-level picture carries the weight here. The gNERD of 10.79 lands right around the historical median and near the middle of today's games, making this a solidly average watchability proposition. Kirby is coming off a rough 2025 in which a shoulder injury cost him the first two months, and he posted a 4.21 FIP-adjacent ERA over just 126 innings upon his return. He did maintain his velocity and posted a career-high strikeout rate of 26.1%, and the underlying numbers suggest he's largely the same pitcher. The Mariners won their first AL West title since 2001 last season, so there's something at stake in how this young season takes shape. On the Texas side, the Rangers carry a luck value of +4.0 — one of the more notable figures in today's slate — meaning they're currently underperforming their underlying numbers and should expect some improvement. Both bullpens are legitimately good, with Seattle's pen rating as the stronger of the two. Worth a watch, particularly for Kirby's development story.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -6.9 9.2% -0.2 -0.6 6.7 $196.7M 28.4 -1.0 2.35 2.52
Z-score -0.68 0.74 -0.26 -0.17 1.16 -0.07 -0.52 -0.25 -0.07 0.28
tNERD -0.68 0.74 -0.26 -0.17 1.16 0.07 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.14 4.00 5.52

Texas Rangers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -1.0 8.0% 1.0 -1.3 4.2 $201.9M 30.3 4.0 2.01 2.08
Z-score -0.09 0.15 0.74 -0.39 0.71 -0.01 1.17 0.94 -0.74 -0.65
tNERD -0.09 0.15 0.74 -0.39 0.71 0.01 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.06

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

No detailed stats available

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:10a

Summary

A tight AL Central division game with two pitchers whose early-season numbers look promising — Williams in particular has been striking hitters out at a high clip — makes this a decent mid-week watch. Both teams carry positive luck scores, meaning each is underperforming their underlying numbers and could be due for more offensive production than they've shown.

Kansas City comes in at 4-5, fourth in the AL Central, while Cleveland is 6-4 and leads the division. All division games carry extra weight in the AL Central, which typically sends only one team to the playoffs.

On the mound, Williams is 1-1 with a 1.08 WHIP over 12 innings, racking up 17 strikeouts in two starts. He'll need to tighten his control, however, as his nine walks are tied for second most in the majors. Cameron is the less-heralded arm here — he's made just one start this year, striking out five over five innings while allowing four hits and one run.

Both pNERD scores are zeroed out due to limited data, so the team-level factors carry the weight. The Guardians' tNERD edge comes from their youth (average age 27.6) and low payroll, while Kansas City's luck component — the highest of the two — suggests the Royals may be due to hit better than they have. The Royals' bullpen, however, is a drag on their score, and Cleveland's usually reliable bullpen had an off-game in the series opener, surrendering three runs. At a gNERD of 10.56, this sits right at the historical median — a perfectly watchable division game, nothing more.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Kansas City Royals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 2.9 8.7% 1.3 -2.9 -6.0 $184.5M 29.7 5.0 2.11 2.22
Z-score 0.30 0.50 1.00 -0.91 -1.11 -0.21 0.62 1.17 -0.54 -0.36
tNERD 0.30 0.50 1.00 -0.91 -1.11 0.21 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.16

Cleveland Guardians

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -6.7 7.8% -1.7 -0.4 -0.8 $88.9M 27.6 4.0 2.16 3.14
Z-score -0.66 0.05 -1.52 -0.10 -0.18 -1.30 -1.35 0.94 -0.44 1.60
tNERD -0.66 0.05 -1.52 -0.10 -0.18 1.30 1.35 0.94 0.00 0.80 4.00 5.97

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Atlanta brings a well-rounded, defensively sharp team into Angel Stadium, but the Angels' battered roster and a struggling Kikuchi on the mound make this a lopsided affair on paper. The gNERD of 10.04 lands right at the historical median, which about sums it up: watchable, but hardly a must-see.

The Braves' tNERD of 7.79 is the real engine here — their barrel rate and, especially, a fielding runs figure that ranks near the top of the historical distribution give Atlanta a genuine two-way appeal. The night before, Zach Neto homered on Chris Sale's very first pitch, so Atlanta will be looking to bounce back with López on the mound. López enters at 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 6 strikeouts, though both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without underlying stats to assess true skill level.

On the other side, Kikuchi comes in at 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA, and the Angels' tNERD of 2.29 reflects a team with real defensive problems — their fielding runs sit nearly two standard deviations below average. Mike Trout is also a question mark after exiting the previous game after being hit on the left hand by a fastball. The Angels are young and their bullpen has been solid, but there's not much here to juice the watchability needle.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 3.2 10.2% -1.5 7.0 6.3 $249.8M 30.5 1.0 2.36 2.36
Z-score 0.33 1.24 -1.36 2.28 1.08 0.54 1.36 0.22 -0.05 -0.06
tNERD 0.33 1.24 -1.36 2.28 1.08 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.79

Los Angeles Angels

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -5.6 8.3% -0.9 -6.0 3.5 $191.6M 28.6 -5.0 2.59 2.01
Z-score -0.55 0.30 -0.85 -1.90 0.59 -0.13 -0.39 -1.21 0.40 -0.80
tNERD -0.55 0.30 -0.85 -1.90 0.59 0.13 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.00 2.29

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

The Mets are playing their first game without Juan Soto on the active roster, making this a compelling early test of New York's roster depth — and Freddy Peralta vs. Zac Gallen is a solid pitching matchup to anchor it. The gNERD of 9.92 lands right around the historical median, and it's on the lower end of today's slate, so this is a middle-of-the-pack watch.

The Mets have scored 23 runs in a trio of wins since Soto exited with a right calf strain, and now they need to figure out how to sustain that without him. The Mets' tNERD of 7.64 is well above average historically, boosted by a strong bullpen, positive batting runs, and notably good broadcasters. Arizona's tNERD of 2.20 is a drag — the D-backs rank below average in batting runs, barrel rate, and baserunning.

Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0.00, meaning we're working without underlying statistical data on them this early in the season. Peralta holds a 1-0 record and has racked up 14 strikeouts so far. He's been dominant against Arizona historically, going 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA in six career appearances against them. Gallen, meanwhile, is no stranger to this matchup either — he's 2-2 with a 3.07 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets. Both are capable of keeping scores low, and the last ten head-to-head meetings between these clubs have leaned toward unders, with six of ten going under. A pitchers' duel is plausible, but without deeper 2026 data, that's more hope than certainty.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -8.7 6.6% -1.5 4.2 -2.1 $231.6M 30.2 -3.0 2.19 1.92
Z-score -0.86 -0.55 -1.36 1.38 -0.41 0.33 1.08 -0.73 -0.39 -0.99
tNERD -0.86 -0.55 -1.36 1.38 -0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.20

New York Mets

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 4.8 8.0% 0.5 0.0 3.5 $374.9M 29.9 2.0 3.32 3.05
Z-score 0.48 0.15 0.32 0.03 0.59 1.97 0.85 0.46 1.82 1.41
tNERD 0.48 0.15 0.32 0.03 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.91 0.70 4.00 7.64

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

Assad is a rotation fill-in here, recalled after both Matthew Boyd (biceps) and Cade Horton (forearm) landed on the IL — which puts a bit of a damper on an already middling matchup. With both pitchers carrying pNERD scores of 0.00 (no statistical data available), the pitching side of this game's gNERD of 9.07 is doing some heavy lifting on vibes alone.

Assad was called up to fill one of two rotation openings after Boyd and Horton hit the IL, having missed the Cubs' Opening Day roster and made two starts for Triple-A Iowa, allowing seven earned runs over seven innings. He won't blow anyone away — he averages just 92.2 mph on his fastball and his metrics are never elite. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen's 2026 situation is similarly opaque, with no statistical data available for him either.

The Cubs bring a tNERD of 5.39, buoyed by solid baserunning and a well-regarded broadcast crew, though their bullpen is a liability. The Rays (tNERD: 2.76) post a brutal fielding runs figure and a near-league-worst barrel rate, which at least limits the home run ball. Their payroll-adjusted score gets a modest bump from the low-budget roster construction Tampa is known for.

This one sits below the historical median gNERD of 10.10 and near the bottom half of today's slate. Watch something else if you have the option.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -7.3 7.7% 1.7 1.3 -5.9 $246.2M 29.8 -5.0 3.01 3.15
Z-score -0.72 0.00 1.33 0.44 -1.09 0.50 0.67 -1.21 1.22 1.62
tNERD -0.72 0.00 1.33 0.44 -1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.81 4.00 5.39

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 7.5 4.5% 1.5 -7.6 -5.1 $106.9M 29.1 3.0 2.27 2.10
Z-score 0.75 -1.59 1.16 -2.42 -0.95 -1.10 0.07 0.70 -0.23 -0.61
tNERD 0.75 -1.59 1.16 -2.42 -0.95 1.10 0.00 0.70 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.76

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

No detailed stats available

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Let me search for Robbie Ray's information now.I've run out of search calls for this turn. I have enough context from the Sánchez search to write a solid summary — I know Sánchez is coming off a near-Cy Young 2025 season and just signed a massive extension. I'll note that pNERD scores are 0 for both pitchers (no early-season data yet), and work with what I have on Robbie Ray from prior knowledge (his Tommy John surgery recovery arc with the Giants). Here's the summary:


The Phillies are bringing one of the NL's best pitchers to Oracle Park, but the Giants' offense looks like it might struggle to make things interesting. San Francisco's tNERD of 1.02 is near the bottom of the historical range, dragged down by a barrel rate and batting runs that rank among the worst in baseball right now.

Sánchez was stellar in 2025, finishing as the NL Cy Young runner-up with a 2.55 FIP, 9.45 K/9, and 1.96 BB/9 across 32 starts. He also just locked in long-term, signing a six-year, $107 million extension with Philadelphia in March. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0 — meaning no early-season data yet — so the pitching component is neutral by default. Robbie Ray, returning from his extended injury absence, is the wild card on the mound for San Francisco.

The Phillies' bullpen is a genuine asset (1.19 z-score), and their luck component suggests some positive regression may be coming. The Giants' broadcasters rate well, which is a small consolation. At a gNERD of 8.78 — below the historical median of 10.10 — this one sits in the lower half of watchability. Watch if Sánchez is on your radar; otherwise, there are better games today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 0.4 6.8% -0.2 -0.1 6.9 $309.8M 30.5 5.0 2.92 2.69
Z-score 0.05 -0.45 -0.26 -0.01 1.19 1.22 1.36 1.17 1.03 0.64
tNERD 0.05 -0.45 -0.26 -0.01 1.19 0.00 0.00 1.17 0.52 0.32 4.00 6.53

San Francisco Giants

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -15.5 3.3% -0.7 -0.1 -2.8 $228.3M 29.6 0.0 3.20 3.49
Z-score -1.54 -2.18 -0.68 -0.01 -0.54 0.29 0.49 -0.02 1.59 2.34
tNERD -1.54 -2.18 -0.68 -0.01 -0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 1.17 4.00 1.02

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

No detailed stats available

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 12:10p

Summary

Two teams with identical 4-6 records, a combined barrel rate near the bottom of the league, and a pair of starting pitchers with zero statistical data to recommend them — this one is a tough sell. The gNERD of 8.56 lands in the bottom quarter of today's slate and below the historical median, which about sums it up.

Trevor Rogers comes in looking sharp on paper at 2-0 with a 1.08 WHIP and eight strikeouts, but the pNERD scores are zeroed out for both starters, meaning there's no underlying statistical track record to validate what we're seeing. Shane Smith takes the mound for Chicago having gone 0-2 with a 19.29 ERA and just three strikeouts — not exactly the kind of line that inspires confidence. The White Sox get a modest tNERD boost from their youth (27.1 average age) and low payroll, while Baltimore's main tNERD contributor is a luck score suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and are due for improvement. The Orioles are also dealing with a crowded injured list, including Zach Eflin, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, and Felix Bautista. Both teams are hovering near .500 and neither is doing much offensively, with below-average barrel rates across the board. Unless Rogers keeps defying his thin statistical résumé or Smith suddenly finds the strike zone, there are better games to watch today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Baltimore Orioles

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -0.4 5.2% -1.3 -2.4 2.8 $214.8M 29.0 5.0 2.82 2.10
Z-score -0.03 -1.24 -1.19 -0.75 0.46 0.14 -0.02 1.17 0.85 -0.61
tNERD -0.03 -1.24 -1.19 -0.75 0.46 0.00 0.02 1.17 0.42 0.00 4.00 2.87

Chicago White Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -8.1 5.9% -0.3 -1.3 -1.9 $105.8M 27.1 -3.0 1.82 2.57
Z-score -0.80 -0.89 -0.35 -0.39 -0.38 -1.11 -1.76 -0.73 -1.11 0.39
tNERD -0.80 -0.89 -0.35 -0.39 -0.38 1.11 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.19 4.00 4.26

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Tarik Skubal is one of the best pitchers alive, and watching him work is reason enough to tune in — but a Minnesota team that's been a mess in the field and on the bases makes this a somewhat lopsided affair. The gNERD of 8.12 sits at the low end of today's games and below the historical median, which tracks: the Tigers are a watchable team, but the Twins are dragging the average down hard.

Skubal has allowed just one run over 13 innings to begin the season, which is the kind of start you'd expect from a reigning Cy Young winner. Both pNERD scores are zeroed out due to missing early-season data, so the model isn't capturing what Skubal is actually doing right now. Detroit's tNERD gets a nice boost from a strong barrel rate, and their broadcast team is a legitimate plus. Bradley has shown increased velocity and pitched six scoreless innings in his last start against Kansas City, so he's not a pushover, but facing Skubal sets up as the most lopsided pitching matchup of the series on paper. Minnesota's tNERD of 0.82 — the lowest of any team in today's slate — reflects a club that's been genuinely bad on the bases and in the field, with fielding and baserunning both among the worst in the league. Pablo López is also on the 60-day IL following UCL surgery, further thinning a rotation that's already leaning on Bradley. Watch for Skubal; just don't expect a lot of drama from the home side.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 0.4 10.1% -0.5 1.3 -1.8 $239.2M 29.6 -1.0 2.74 2.64
Z-score 0.05 1.19 -0.52 0.44 -0.36 0.42 0.58 -0.25 0.69 0.54
tNERD 0.05 1.19 -0.52 0.44 -0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.27 4.00 5.42

Minnesota Twins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -4.1 8.0% -2.1 -5.2 -2.1 $122.1M 28.9 -5.0 2.30 2.06
Z-score -0.40 0.15 -1.86 -1.65 -0.41 -0.92 -0.06 -1.21 -0.17 -0.69
tNERD -0.40 0.15 -1.86 -1.65 -0.41 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.82

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

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