MLB: What to watch on May 20, 2026

• 20 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

This is the highest-rated game of the day, and it's not hard to see why: Shohei Ohtani takes the mound against a division rival in a matchup that's genuinely worth rearranging your evening for. Through seven starts in 2026, Ohtani has been dominant on the hill, posting a 0.38 ERA with 25 strikeouts and six walks across 24 innings. His pNERD of 9.79 ranks near the top of today's slate and well into the 75th percentile historically, backed by a 97.8 mph fastball and an xFIP- of 74 that confirms the results aren't a mirage. His seven-pitch arsenal — four-seamer, curveball, sweeper, splitter, sinker, slider, and cutter — puts him among just 16 pitchers in MLB with at least seven pitch types.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 9.99 is the highest of any team today, driven by elite batting runs, fielding, and a strong bullpen. The Padres counter with a bullpen that's been one of the better ones in baseball, though their offense has struggled. Randy Vásquez is a serviceable opponent — his pNERD of 5.97 is solidly average — but the honest draw here is watching one of baseball's most singular talents pitch in a division game with real stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

Two NL Central rivals with first place on the line, a young lefty with elite underlying numbers, and a Cubs team desperate to avoid a sweep — this one has genuine stakes. With a gNERD of 16.09, it lands near the 95th percentile of today's slate and well above the historical median of 10.1.

Milwaukee enters having won 10 of its last 12 games, sitting a half-game ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central, while Chicago has dropped four straight and eight of ten. The Brewers won the Central in 2025 for the third consecutive year and then eliminated the Cubs in a five-game NLDS, so there's some genuine bad blood here. The Brewers go for a three-game sweep with Kyle Harrison (4-1) taking the ball against Edward Cabrera (3-1).

Harrison is the main attraction, posting a pNERD of 9.94 — above the 95th percentile historically. His xFIP- of 76 indicates he's been substantially better than league average, and his elite swinging-strike and zone rates back that up. At just 24, he's already one of the more watchable young starters in the game. Cabrera (pNERD: 6.37) brings solid velocity and a respectable xFIP-, though his strike rate lags slightly.

The Cubs' tNERD of 8.70 is the higher of the two, driven by strong batting and a genuinely elite fielding unit. The Brewers counter with a top-tier bullpen and excellent baserunning. Both broadcasters rate well, which never hurts.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Cam Schlittler is putting on one of the more quietly historic pitching seasons in recent memory, and watching him work against a Blue Jays team with a postseason grudge to settle makes this a genuinely compelling game. The gNERD of 14.72 lands near the 95th percentile of today's slate and historically, making it one of the better watchability scores you'll find on any given day.

Schlittler's pNERD of 11.62 — the highest among today's starters — is well-earned. He's pitching to an MLB-leading 1.35 ERA with a 59/9 K/BB ratio, and his xFIP- of 62 suggests the underlying skills are real, not just sequencing luck. Through nine starts, he has 50+ strikeouts, fewer than 10 walks, no more than one homer allowed, and a sub-1.50 ERA — a combination not seen since Walter Johnson in 1913. His 97.7 mph average velocity and elite strike rate round out a profile that's as fun to watch as it is statistically dominant. In the 2025 playoffs, he threw eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against Boston, then lost the deciding ALDS game to these very Blue Jays — so there's some history here.

The Yankees' tNERD of 10.25, the highest in today's games, reflects a lineup with elite barrel rates and strong run production. Toronto, meanwhile, grades out poorly — below-average offense, poor baserunning — though their fielding and bullpen provide some floor. Trey Yesavage's pNERD of 0.00 means we have no statistical read on him, which adds a small element of the unknown. Come for Schlittler; stay for whatever Yesavage turns out to be.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

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Emerson Hancock is quietly pitching like one of the better starters in the AL, and the White Sox — improbably watchable given their recent history — bring a young, hard-hitting lineup that makes this game worth your time. This one lands at a gNERD of 13.81, comfortably in the upper quartile of today's slate and historically.

Hancock's pNERD of 8.03 is the headliner, driven almost entirely by a genuinely excellent xFIP- of 75 — meaning he's suppressing runs about 25% better than league average on a skill-adjusted basis. His strike-throwing and velocity are solid complements.

Burke has historically struggled to go deep into starts and get swings-and-misses, and his swinging-strike rate here is the weakest part of his profile. That said, he showed enough this spring to earn the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Shane Smith, and his above-average strike rate (the strongest component of his pNERD) suggests he's attacking the zone more deliberately.

The White Sox tNERD of 8.77 is the real surprise — their barrel rate is well above average, and their low payroll and young roster (the youngest in today's game by z-score) add genuine watchability. The White Sox improved by 19 games in 2025, and this is a team still building toward something. Seattle's bullpen grades out well, but their fielding is a notable drag. Both teams carry modest positive luck values, suggesting neither is dramatically over- or underperforming their true talent.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Seattle Mariners

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Chris Sale at 37 is pitching like a man who hasn't read the memo about aging, and a Braves offense that ranks among the best in baseball makes this one worth your time. The gNERD of 13.38 sits comfortably above the historical median of around 10, and near the 75th percentile of today's slate.

Sale is the clear draw here. Through seven starts in 2026, he's 6-1 with a 2.14 FIP and 49 strikeouts in 42 innings. His xFIP- of 76 (pNERD: 7.71) reflects genuine ace-level stuff — well above average and in the upper tier of today's starters. He picked up his 150th career win on April 26 against the Phillies, pitching six innings, allowing only one hit, walking two, and striking out nine. He's also moved past Chuck Finley to sit in sole possession of 28th on the all-time strikeout list.

Atlanta's tNERD of 7.73 is driven by strong batting runs and a barrel rate well above league average, meaning Sale's outings tend to come with run support. Janson Junk (pNERD: 3.97) is roughly league-average by xFIP- and generates below-average whiffs, so the Braves' offense could have some say here. Miami's tNERD (7.35) gets a boost from their youth, low payroll, and excellent baserunning — a scrappy, watchable outfit even when outmatched on paper.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

A solid NL Central rivalry game with a compelling backdrop: Pittsburgh arrives on a four-game skid, having lost the series opener in walk-off fashion, while St. Louis has gone a perfect 5-0 against the Pirates this season. The Cardinals' youth and McGreevy's command profile make this worth a look, even if neither starter is going to blow anyone away.

Pittsburgh enters having dropped four straight, with St. Louis now 5-0 in the season series — a lopsided rivalry dynamic that adds a little extra tension. Tuesday's game ended on Iván Herrera's walk-off three-run homer in the 10th, so the Pirates are walking into Busch Stadium a bit bruised.

The Cardinals' tNERD (6.41) gets a meaningful boost from their youth — at 26.9 average age, they're one of the younger rosters in baseball — and solid fielding. Their bullpen, however, is a genuine liability. Mlodzinski's pNERD (5.69) is modestly above average, with a positive luck component suggesting his results have been slightly worse than his underlying numbers deserve. McGreevy's changeup generates a 34.4% whiff rate, and his xFIP- of 92 is respectable, though his low swinging-strike rate keeps his pNERD (4.53) closer to average. At 11.20, this gNERD sits right around the historical median — a perfectly watchable divisional game, not a must-see event.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals

Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A series finale between two sub-.500 teams closing out a three-game set, this game lands right around the historical median — watchable enough, but don't rearrange your schedule. Boston's defense and baserunning are the real draw here, while both offenses have been underwhelming all season.

Both clubs are hovering near the bottom of the standings, with Boston at 19-26 and Kansas City at 19-27. The Red Sox tNERD of 8.08 is one of the stronger team scores in today's slate, driven by a defense that converts balls in play into outs at a 71.4% clip, ranking 6th in MLB — consistent with their strong fielding runs and baserunning metrics. Kansas City's bullpen has been a liability all year, which could matter late.

Connelly Early (3-2) takes the ball for Boston against Michael Wacha (4-2) in the series finale. At 24, Early is the more interesting arm to watch — his youth is the main driver of his pNERD, though his swinging-strike rate is below average. Kansas City has lost seven of eight coming in, and they went 1-5 against the White Sox and Cardinals on a recent road trip. Wacha, the veteran of the matchup at 34, works at a brisk pace that keeps games moving. Neither pitcher is lighting up the statcast leaderboards, but both teams carry positive luck scores, suggesting some offensive regression toward the mean is possible.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Kansas City Royals

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A one-sided series and a mystery starter make this a tough sell — Cleveland is rolling through Detroit, but with Tanner Bibee scuffling and the Tigers yet to name an opponent, the watchability ceiling here is modest. The gNERD of 9.75 lands right around the historical median, and the asymmetry between these two teams tells the story.

Cleveland has won six of seven, while Detroit has lost 11 of 13. The Guardians' tNERD of 7.76 is driven by a young, cheap roster — their low payroll ($88.9M) and young average age (27.6) both contribute positively — plus a solid bullpen. Detroit's tNERD of 2.94 is a different story: the Tigers have scored only 190 runs this season and have been held to two runs or fewer in three of their last five games. Their baserunning (-1.62) and fielding (-1.77) components are both ugly, and a luck score of 19.0 suggests they're overperforming their underlying numbers and may get worse before they get better.

Bibee enters at 0-6 with a 4.15 ERA, and the Tigers have not yet named a starter. Bibee's pNERD of 3.79 is below average, reflecting a pedestrian xFIP- and a pace that actively works against watchability. A TBD starter with a pNERD of 0.00 adds uncertainty rather than intrigue. This one is more compelling if you're a Guardians fan watching a team click — less so if you're hoping for a pitcher's duel.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins, 10:40a

Summary

A series finale between two struggling teams, with a Houston rotation held together with duct tape and prayers. The pitching matchup gives this game its modest appeal — both starters grade out reasonably well — but the team-level context is hard to ignore.

Houston placed Lance McCullers Jr. on the IL with right shoulder soreness before Tuesday's game, giving the Astros 13 players on the IL — the most in the majors. Jose Altuve is also out with an oblique strain. Mike Burrows (2-5) takes the ball for Houston, and his pNERD of 6.30 is the better story here: he's young (26), works quickly, and carries a significant luck component suggesting his underlying numbers are better than his surface results. Joe Ryan's xFIP- of 90 is the most concrete skill signal in this game, and his 6.3% strike rate ranks well above average.

The Astros' bullpen is a genuine liability — their bullpen runs figure is nearly two standard deviations below average — and their luck score signals they've been underperforming their underlying offense, so runs could come. Both teams sit below .500, and the gNERD of 9.71 lands just below the historical median. Watchable enough as a series finale, but don't rearrange your schedule.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Houston Astros

Minnesota Twins

Mike Burrows, Houston Astros

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

Jack Leiter's ankle injury and recent struggles make this a "watch with tempered expectations" kind of game — though his underlying stuff still makes him the most compelling reason to tune in. The Rangers and Rockies bring two of the weaker offensive units in the game, but Leiter's pNERD of 7.90 gives this matchup more analytical appeal than the gNERD of 9.27 — right around the historical median — might suggest.

Leiter is the main draw. He's seeing considerably more movement on his principal pitches in 2026, with four of five offerings improved in both horizontal and vertical break. He also added a cutter, a grip he learned from Garrett Crochet. His 96.7 mph fastball and high swinging-strike rate both contribute positively to his pNERD. That said, through six starts he carries a 33/12 K/BB ratio, but has allowed three or more earned runs in his last four starts. Manager Skip Schumaker has acknowledged Leiter is battling an ankle injury — worth monitoring. His luck component is notably positive (18.0), suggesting he's been pitching better than results show and may be due for some improvement.

Kyle Freeland's pNERD of 4.29 is near the historical median, though his xFIP- of 107 signals he's pitching below average. His luck component is a striking 48.0, meaning he's been substantially outperformed by his underlying numbers — expect the gap to close, just not necessarily in a direction that makes for compelling baseball. Colorado's tNERD of 2.14 reflects a lineup with genuinely poor offensive metrics across the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Colorado Rockies

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:05a

Summary

Abbott's recent resurgence after a brutal start makes this a watchable storyline, but the underlying numbers for both pitchers keep this game near the bottom of today's slate.

Andrew Abbott came into 2026 as Cincinnati's Opening Day starter off a strong 2025 campaign, then promptly posted a 6.59 FIP through his first six starts. After going 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.78 WHIP through six starts, he's gone 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last four. The gNERD numbers, though, are skeptical: Abbott isn't generating enough swings and misses, with his strikeout rate dropping to 13.2% compared to 21.8% and higher in prior seasons — reflected in his pNERD of just 1.63 and a well-above-average xFIP-. Aaron Nola (pNERD: 4.47) is the more appealing arm here, pitching to a solid xFIP-, though his luck component suggests he's been outperforming his underlying numbers and may see some regression. The Phillies' bullpen is a genuine asset (22.9 bullpen runs above average), while Cincinnati's 'pen is a liability. Both offenses are below average in batting runs, so don't expect a slugfest. At 7.91, this gNERD sits below the historical median of around 10 and near the lower end of today's games.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

The main reason to tune in here is Zach Thornton's MLB debut — a 24-year-old lefty prospect making his first big league appearance in place of the injured Clay Holmes, giving this otherwise pedestrian matchup a genuine storyline worth watching.

Thornton steps in after Holmes suffered a fractured fibula when he took a line drive off the bat of Spencer Jones in his last start. Thornton will make his MLB debut on May 20 against the Nationals. The 6'3" lefty throws from a high-three-quarter arm slot with a funky, slingy delivery and, despite all that movement, has shown above-average command. Mendoza noted the Mets liked that Thornton was a lefty, a potential matchup advantage against a Nationals squad loaded with lefty hitters. His pNERD of 0.00 simply reflects a lack of MLB statistical data — he's a true unknown quantity.

On the other side, Zack Littell's pNERD of -1.64 — the lowest among today's starters — tells a story his stats back up: an xFIP- of 141 and a SwStr% near zero are not exactly compelling stuff. The Nationals do bring some tNERD value (7.05), driven by strong baserunning, a young roster, and a low payroll, though their bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball. The gNERD of 7.64 sits in the bottom quarter of today's slate and well below the historical median — but a prospect debut has a way of making a low-NERD game worth a look anyway.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Zach Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:10a

Summary

Shane Baz's return to Tampa Bay adds the only real seasoning to an otherwise bland series finale. The former Ray — traded to Baltimore this offseason after spending his formative years at the Trop — got a tribute video during the second inning of Monday's game at Tropicana Field, a nice moment that won't do much to rescue his 2026 numbers.

Control remains Baz's biggest bugaboo, as he's issued at least three free passes in three straight starts and carries a 42:22 K:BB through 51.1 innings. His xFIP- of 111 confirms the underlying numbers aren't flattering either, and his slow pace (21.3 seconds between pitches, well above average) won't help anyone's attention span. The Rays' opposing starter is still TBD, so half the pitching equation is a mystery.

On the team side, Tampa Bay has won 20 of 24, has the best record in MLB at 32-15, and is a season-high 17 games above .500, while the Orioles are currently in last place in the AL East. The Rays' tNERD (2.16) is dragged down by a historically low barrel rate, and Baltimore's fielding numbers are poor. At 7.14, this gNERD sits in the bottom quarter of today's slate and well below the historical median — a series finale featuring a struggling pitcher returning to his former home is a storyline, but not quite enough to make this a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

This series has already delivered one of the wilder games of the season — but don't expect the nightcap to match it. A gNERD of 6.26 puts this squarely near the bottom of today's slate and well below the historical median, and the numbers mostly back that up.

The backstory is worth knowing: Athletics starter J.T. Ginn took a no-hitter into the ninth inning two nights ago before Adam Frazier singled and Zach Neto followed with a walk-off two-run homer. Then the A's responded with a 14-6 blowout the next night. So this series has had its fireworks — just not from tonight's starters.

Aaron Civale (5-1) takes the ball for Oakland, but his pNERD of 1.46 reflects the underlying reality: his xFIP- of 112 suggests he's been pitching worse than his surface results, and his swinging-strike rate is well below average. Jack Kochanowicz gets the slight edge at 3.94, boosted mainly by his velocity and youth at 25, though his strikeout profile isn't generating much swing-and-miss either.

The Angels' tNERD of 0.98 — the lowest score in today's games — tells you plenty: poor offense, poor baserunning, poor defense, and a shaky bullpen all drag them down. The A's are more watchable as a unit, though their positive luck score suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and may improve. This one is likely to be a low-drama, low-strikeout affair.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Athletics

Los Angeles Angels

Aaron Civale, Athletics

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels

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San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of today's watchability range, and the underlying numbers back that up. Both the Giants and Diamondbacks bring weak offensive profiles to the table, and neither starter inspires much confidence.

Mahle has posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP across 25.2 innings this season, with a walk rate that's his highest since 2020 — and his xFIP- of 99 suggests those control issues aren't a mirage. His pNERD of 4.32 is roughly average historically, propped up largely by a sizable luck component: his underlying numbers suggest he's been pitching better than his results show, so some improvement may be coming. Mahle was limited to just 16 starts in 2025 with Texas due to shoulder issues, so durability remains a question mark.

Merrill Kelly is the bigger concern here. His xFIP- of 125 — well above average, in the wrong direction — drags his pNERD down to 1.69, well below the historical mean. At 37, he's also the oldest arm on the board today by a wide margin.

The Giants' tNERD of 1.49 is the lowest of any team today, weighed down by poor batting runs, a bottom-tier barrel rate, and genuinely bad baserunning. Arizona is more respectable with solid fielding, though their offense is roughly league-average at best. If you've got other games to choose from today, this one can wait.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

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