MLB: What to watch on May 28, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.0 | 1:10p | Atlanta Braves | 8.0 | Boston Red Sox | 7.9 | Chris Sale | 8.3 | Payton Tolle | 9.8 |
| 14.7 | 3:40p | Chicago Cubs | 8.4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.7 | Colin Rea | 4.6 | Paul Skenes | 9.8 |
| 12.1 | 11:10a | Minnesota Twins | 3.1 | Chicago White Sox | 7.5 | Kendry Rojas | No data | Davis Martin | 8.7 |
| 8.0 | 5:05p | Houston Astros | 3.7 | Texas Rangers | 3.5 | Spencer Arrighetti | 1.1 | Nathan Eovaldi | 7.7 |
| 6.3 | 3:35p | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.0 | Baltimore Orioles | 4.4 | Patrick Corbin | 2.9 | Chris Bassitt | 1.4 |
| 5.1 | 10:10a | Los Angeles Angels | 1.0 | Detroit Tigers | 2.5 | Grayson Rodriguez | No data | Jack Flaherty | 1.7 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p
Summary
The spreadsheet and the soap opera agree: this one has ace stuff and just enough baggage. Chris Sale gets his former club at Fenway with seven straight quality starts in tow, and Boston answers with Payton Tolle, the 23-year-old lefty and Red Sox No. 1 prospect who has already skipped past the awkward “project” stage.
A gNERD of 16.98 is the top score on today’s slate and comfortably above the historical 95th percentile, which fits a game with two strong tNERD lineups and two genuinely watchable starters. Atlanta supplies the louder contact and more thump, while Boston brings excellent defense, useful speed, a capable bullpen, and underlying numbers that are kinder than its raw offensive line. Tolle already held Atlanta to two runs over eight innings on May 16, and Sale comes in at 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 62 innings, enough to earn Cy Young notice. Boston also just blanked Atlanta 8-0 behind Jarren Duran’s four-hit game, so the backdrop is mildly prickly rather than sleepy.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 28.3 | 9.7% | 0.1 | 10.4 | 15.3 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -15.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.28 | 1.27 | -0.08 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.18 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.28 | 1.27 | -0.08 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.00 |
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.1 | 7.3% | 3.1 | 16.1 | 17.8 | $263.6M | 29.2 | 19.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.82 | -0.51 | 1.02 | 1.69 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 1.48 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.82 | -0.51 | 1.02 | 1.69 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.48 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 7.88 |
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 72 | 13.8% | 68.2% | 95.4 mph | 37 | 20.4s | -25 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.50 | 1.36 | 1.81 | 0.59 | 2.13 | 1.27 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.99 | 0.68 | 0.90 | 0.59 | 0.00 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.33 |
Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 86 | 12.5% | 68.9% | 95.8 mph | 23 | 17.1s | -28 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.71 | 0.80 | 2.10 | 0.77 | -1.55 | -1.50 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.42 | 0.40 | 1.05 | 0.77 | 1.55 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.76 |
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p
Summary
This is one of the better watches on the slate: a near-95th-percentile gNERD game with Paul Skenes as the headliner, and a series that has already swung from a 2-1 Pirates squeaker to a 12-1 Pirates romp to a 10-4 Cubs reply.
Chicago’s 8.42 tNERD fits a club that has created runs and vacuumed up outs on defense, and it just snapped a 10-game skid by scoring 10 in the latest meeting. Colin Rea is the modest half of this matchup, but he did just work seven strong innings, and his hefty positive luck component hints that his line has been harsher than his actual pitching.
Pittsburgh brings speed and Konnor Griffin’s chaos factor, but the point of the exercise is Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, who entered his last start leading qualified MLB starters with a 0.71 WHIP while holding hitters to a .161 average. His past couple outings have been merely good instead of rude, which is about as much vulnerability as this game is likely to offer.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 23.9 | 7.9% | 0.5 | 21.0 | -1.3 | $246.2M | 29.8 | 7.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.08 | -0.06 | 0.07 | 2.22 | -0.85 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.08 | -0.06 | 0.07 | 2.22 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 8.42 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 12.3 | 7.6% | 5.2 | -1.8 | 6.3 | $119.1M | 28.8 | -4.0 | 2.01 | 1.98 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.57 | -0.28 | 1.79 | -0.26 | -0.25 | -0.96 | -0.20 | -0.32 | -0.74 | -0.86 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.57 | -0.28 | 1.79 | -0.26 | -0.25 | 0.96 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.72 |
Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 101 | 9.2% | 63.5% | 93.5 mph | 35 | 18.0s | 22 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.13 | -0.62 | -0.08 | -0.30 | 1.61 | -0.75 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.26 | -0.31 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.57 |
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 75 | 11.5% | 65.8% | 97.1 mph | 24 | 18.8s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.33 | 0.37 | 0.85 | 1.38 | -1.29 | -0.07 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.66 | 0.18 | 0.43 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.78 |
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a
Summary
This is a solid watch: the White Sox are oddly fun right now, and Davis Martin gives the game a real spine. Chicago just hung 15 runs on Minnesota, Munetaka Murakami has homered in three straight and already reached 20 before June, and Byron Buxton is still managing a sore right hip.
That pairs well with a 12.13 gNERD, above both the historical median and today’s average. Martin’s 8.66 pNERD looks justified: his xFIP- component is excellent, and he has struck out 33 in 24 2/3 May innings after 10-K and 9-K starts earlier this month. Rojas is a pNERD zero only because the model lacks detail, not because he lacks intrigue; Minnesota’s No. 10 prospect is a hard-throwing lefty who fanned three in four innings in his first big-league start. The Twins’ lower tNERD fits a team missing Ryan Jeffers and carrying weak baserunning and fielding marks, while Chicago’s higher number gets real-life backup from a young lineup that has won eight of nine against Minnesota dating to last season.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)
Minnesota Twins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -2.0 | 8.6% | -2.9 | -4.2 | 2.2 | $122.1M | 28.9 | -9.0 | 2.30 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.07 | 0.46 | -1.18 | -0.53 | -0.57 | -0.92 | -0.06 | -0.71 | -0.17 | -0.69 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.07 | 0.46 | -1.18 | -0.53 | -0.57 | 0.92 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 12.7 | 9.4% | -1.1 | -3.9 | 6.1 | $105.8M | 27.1 | 1.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.59 | 1.05 | -0.52 | -0.49 | -0.26 | -1.11 | -1.76 | 0.07 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.59 | 1.05 | -0.52 | -0.49 | -0.26 | 1.11 | 1.76 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 7.49 |
Kendry Rojas, Minnesota Twins
No detailed stats available
Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 12.8% | 66.9% | 93.7 mph | 29 | 17.9s | -19 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.66 | 0.93 | 1.30 | -0.21 | 0.03 | -0.83 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.33 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.66 |
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p
Summary
This is a watch-if-you-like-pitching-and-spite game: Nathan Eovaldi is the cleanest reason to tune in, and the Lone Star bad blood does the rest. It is not a premium NERD draw, but it has just enough edge from one excellent starter and a suddenly noisy series. Eovaldi’s 7.69 pNERD is earned; he shut out Houston for seven innings with eight strikeouts on May 17, and since returning from a brief left-side issue he has allowed only one run over his last 22 innings. Arrighetti’s 1.13 pNERD is the warning label on his shiny surface numbers: MLB’s preview notes he has yielded only two earned runs in four May starts, but the weaker whiff-and-command profile here suggests more tightrope than masterpiece. The offenses are the drag. An 8.01 gNERD sits near the low end of this slate, and the middling team scores fit clubs missing Jose Altuve and Corey Seager. Still, the first two games have already produced four Yordan Alvarez homers and three from Joc Pederson, so if the starters wobble, this thing could get loud in a hurry.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)
Houston Astros
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 17.2 | 8.6% | -1.4 | 0.0 | -16.3 | $232.7M | 28.9 | 14.0 | 2.17 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.78 | 0.46 | -0.63 | -0.07 | -2.04 | 0.34 | -0.16 | 1.09 | -0.42 | -0.84 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.78 | 0.46 | -0.63 | -0.07 | -2.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
Texas Rangers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -9.2 | 8.0% | -2.3 | -1.7 | 10.7 | $201.9M | 30.3 | 12.0 | 2.01 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.38 | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.25 | 0.10 | -0.01 | 1.17 | 0.93 | -0.74 | -0.65 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.38 | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.25 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.46 |
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 119 | 10.7% | 61.1% | 92.6 mph | 26 | 20.4s | -87 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.14 | 0.02 | -1.07 | -0.73 | -0.76 | 1.27 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.27 | 0.01 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.76 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.13 |
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80 | 15.4% | 67.6% | 94.2 mph | 36 | 20.2s | 10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.05 | 2.05 | 1.58 | 0.02 | 1.87 | 1.10 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.10 | 1.03 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -0.55 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.69 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p
Summary
This is a “watch if you enjoy AL East stress more than art” game. gNERD puts it near today’s low end, so the main hook is circumstance: Chris Bassitt gets his former club, and Patrick Corbin has quietly put together a competent May.
Corbin’s pNERD edges Bassitt’s, and recent form explains why: MLB’s preview says he has allowed three runs or fewer in all five May starts, and he just worked six innings with seven strikeouts against Pittsburgh. Bassitt’s 1.44 pNERD fits a profile built on guile more than overwhelm, though the former-Blue-Jay angle adds a little garnish.
Toronto’s team score is dulled by weak contact quality and run creation, even if the defense and bullpen help, and the Blue Jays are still navigating Dylan Cease’s hamstring IL stint and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent elbow contusion. Baltimore has more recent pulse than polish: the Orioles have won three straight, swept the Rays, and got two Gunnar Henderson homers on Wednesday. That makes this less baseball candy than respectable divisional unease.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -16.6 | 6.3% | -1.8 | 8.6 | 24.2 | $306.1M | 30.1 | -2.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.71 | -1.25 | -0.78 | 0.87 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 0.99 | -0.16 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.71 | -1.25 | -0.78 | 0.87 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.01 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 4.6 | 7.7% | 1.7 | -11.8 | 18.9 | $214.8M | 29.0 | -7.0 | 2.82 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.23 | -0.21 | 0.51 | -1.35 | 0.75 | 0.14 | -0.02 | -0.56 | 0.85 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.23 | -0.21 | 0.51 | -1.35 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.36 |
Patrick Corbin, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 104 | 8.8% | 62.5% | 91.3 mph | 36 | 18.2s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.30 | -0.80 | -0.48 | -1.34 | 1.87 | -0.58 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.59 | -0.40 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.86 |
Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 116 | 9.0% | 61.6% | 91.7 mph | 37 | 20.4s | 21 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.97 | -0.71 | -0.87 | -1.15 | 2.13 | 1.27 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.94 | -0.35 | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.64 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.44 |
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a
Summary
This is the lowest-gNERD game on the board, and the web check mostly confirms the diagnosis: the appeal here is more unfinished business than polished entertainment. If you tune in, it’s for Grayson Rodriguez’s still-new Angels chapter and the chance that Jack Flaherty’s strikeouts can briefly cover for the rest of the clutter. Rodriguez’s pNERD is 0 because the sample is tiny; this is just his third Angels start after opening the season on the IL with right shoulder inflammation, and his first MLB action since July 31, 2024 only arrived on May 18. Flaherty does at least bring 55 strikeouts, but his 1.74 pNERD fits the supplied 119 xFIP-, and MLB’s preview says he has averaged just 4 1/3 innings over five May starts. The rest is why this game sits at today’s floor: both teams have poor tNERD profiles, the Angels just lost Nolan Schanuel to the injured list, and Detroit’s already-thin pitching staff spent a 4-0 win adding fresh worries about Casey Mize and Kenley Jansen. Detroit’s big positive luck component suggests a little hidden competence, but this is still mostly a starter-storyline game.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Los Angeles Angels
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -13.0 | 9.1% | -4.2 | -14.4 | -7.1 | $191.6M | 28.6 | 8.0 | 2.59 | 2.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.55 | 0.83 | -1.66 | -1.64 | -1.31 | -0.13 | -0.39 | 0.62 | 0.40 | -0.80 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.55 | 0.83 | -1.66 | -1.64 | -1.31 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 |
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -10.3 | 8.8% | -3.9 | -13.8 | 2.8 | $239.2M | 29.6 | 18.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.43 | 0.60 | -1.55 | -1.57 | -0.53 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 1.40 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.43 | 0.60 | -1.55 | -1.57 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 2.54 |
Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels
No detailed stats available
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 119 | 9.4% | 60.6% | 92.3 mph | 30 | 18.6s | 26 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.14 | -0.54 | -1.27 | -0.87 | 0.29 | -0.24 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.27 | -0.27 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.74 |
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MLB: What to watch on May 27, 2026