MLB: What to watch on May 31, 2026

• 31 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

High-stakes contrast: an elite Dodgers team with top-end lineup and defense meets a young, high-upside Phillies starter, and the matchup math (gNERD 14.95) says this should be one of the more watchable games on the slate. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the clear spine here—big-league ace with the pitch mix and peripherals to suppress runs (he’s been the Dodgers’ frontline starter and a season-long strikeout/weak-contact engine), while Andrew Painter brings rookie intrigue: high velocity, improving command, and a string of outings suggesting he’s settling in.

The numbers line up: a top-tier team NERD for Los Angeles (10.64) driven by overwhelming batting runs, barrels, and fielding, paired with two above-average pNERD starters (Yamamoto 7.59, Painter 6.04) — that’s a classic duel-with-drama recipe. Painter’s youth and recent positive “luck” component add volatility; Yamamoto’s elite xFIP-like metrics promise low scoring, so expect a tight game that can swing quickly if the Dodgers’ depth or the Phillies’ bullpen factors in. If you value high-quality pitching with the possibility of an offense-driven pivot, prioritize this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:20p

Summary

High watchability — gNERD 13.37 lands this one above the day’s average and into the top quartile historically, driven less by elite arms than by two strong team profiles and a clear “can-he-rebound?” storyline on the bump. The Cubs’ beefy tNERD (8.64) is doing the heavy lifting here — their outsize fielding and strong broadcast presence push the game’s entertainment floor up, while the Cardinals’ younger, reasonably lively roster (tNERD 7.13) keeps things competitive. Jordan Wicks registers a pNERD of 0 because there’s essentially no stable MLB workload to lean on — he’s been on the injury radar and was projected to miss time early in the year, which makes him an unknown and therefore a watchable wild card. Matthew Liberatore (pNERD 5.96) is the more reliable story: his peripherals look competent (xFIP- near league average, mid-90s velo) but a large positive “luck” component suggests he’s underperformed and could bounce back — a classic must-see for believers in skill over short-term results. Overall: prioritize this if you like team-driven chess and the prospect of a pitcher reversal rather than pure fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Jordan Wicks, Chicago Cubs

No detailed stats available

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

This is a worthwhile watch mostly because Jacob Misiorowski’s brute-force stuff promises strikeouts and chaos, while Tatsuya Imai’s renewed control issues and Houston’s shaky bullpen open the door for a volatile contest. The 13.03 gNERD sits comfortably above the historical 75th percentile and above today’s average, driven almost entirely by a towering pNERD gap (Misiorowski 14.46 vs Imai 1.59).

Misiorowski is a high-ceiling, high-spin power arm — triple-A reports and the Brewers’ notes emphasize mid‑to‑upper 90s heater velocity and a returning changeup he’s leaned on in development, which explains his sky-high swing‑and‑miss profile. Imai, meanwhile, has been working back from a brief rehab stint and has shown command hiccups (walks and adjustment to the majors), which suppresses his pNERD and raises the chance of multi‑run innings.

Team NERDs tilt toward Milwaukee (5.87 vs 4.13): Brewers bullpen and youth add upside, Astros’ lineup still packs punch but their relief corps is a real negative — a recipe for strikeout-heavy swings, bullpen fireworks, or both. The matchup is more watchable than your average game because the pitchers’ contrast makes outcomes unpredictable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Houston Astros

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

Watch this one if you like contrast: a high-pNERD rookie with electric underlying stuff (Nolan McLean) trying to shake off a couple of ugly outings against a scrappier, younger Marlins club that rates better by team metrics. McLean’s sky‑high pNERD (9.93) comes from an excellent xFIP profile, youth, plus quick pace and “good luck” components — but he’s been tattooed in recent starts, so there’s real drama in whether the underlying numbers or the recent damage show up.

Janson Junk’s lower pNERD (3.94) still carries value: he’s been a recent addition to Miami’s staff and brings positive luck and league‑average peripherals, which makes this feel like a classic boring‑to‑boom matchup where the margin of error is small. Miami’s higher tNERD is driven by outstanding baserunning and a competent bullpen, while the Mets’ offense is a real liability — that contrast raises the chance of a pitchers’ duel that flips late.

In short: the box score may read low‑scoring and tense early, but McLean’s volatility plus Miami’s base‑and‑bullpen strengths make this worth tuning into if you enjoy high-leverage swings rather than steady run-fests.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

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Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

This is worth tuning into if you like a pitching-first game: Braxton Ashcraft is pitching like a May ace and the Pirates’ team profile promises more activity on the bases and in the box, while Zebby Matthews is a recently recalled arm whose unfamiliarity adds a bit of drama.

The gNERD of 12.30 sits above both today’s mean (10.43) and the historical median (10.10), so on NERD terms this is a notch more compelling than your average slate. Ashcraft’s big pNERD (9.94) tracks with elite strike/velocity and a streak of long, efficient starts that have him eating innings—exactly the sort of profile that creates low-variance, watchable contests. The Pirates’ higher tNERD (6.74) is driven by solid batting runs and standout baserunning, promising the occasional high-leverage base-path action, while the Twins’ low tNERD (2.92) reflects limited offense and defensive shortfalls. Matthews’ pNERD of 0.00 reflects limited big-league data after a delayed recall, so the matchup pairs a known quantity vs. genuine unknown—good for viewers who like scouting tea leaves. If you prefer offense-heavy swings, this probably isn’t your top pick; if you like command, velocity and matchup nuance, it’s worth watching.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Minnesota Twins

Pittsburgh Pirates

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

This is an actually watchable game: a gNERD of 11.86 sits above both the historical mean and today’s average, and two above-average tNERDs promise crisp defense and bullpen action rather than a home‑run parade. Ranger Suárez brings the better underlying profile (pNERD 5.04, xFIP- comfortably below league average) and a fairly short leash on strikeout upside, while Tanner Bibee grades as the lesser pitching attraction here — solid enough but more hittable and buoyed by positive “luck,” which suggests some regression risk.

Boston’s tNERD is propped up by elite fielding (huge positive component) and some baserunning juice, plus an outsized luck number that hints their offense may wake up; that combination turns what could be a bland pitchers’ duel into a game where one defensive play or a tired bullpen could flip the script. Cleveland’s low payroll and younger roster haven’t stopped a strong relief corps from keeping games interesting, but Bibee’s slow pace and middling pNERD mean the excitement will likely come from late‑inning matchups and defensive variance.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

This is a comfortably watchable game: the Braves bring top-end team talent and loud offensive profiles, while the Reds are pitching through recent hiccups — a recipe for action rather than a pitchers’ duel. The gNERD of 10.64 sits a touch above today’s mean and near the historical median, driven mainly by Atlanta’s hefty tNERD (8.63) — strong batting runs, barrel rate and fielding — versus Cincinnati’s middling team profile and a shaky bullpen. Spencer Strider’s above-average pNERD (5.09) matters: he’s back from the IL and still carrying swing‑and‑miss stuff and plus velocity, so he can shorten games and pile up Ks if his command holds. Nick Lodolo (pNERD 2.65) is coming off a blister-related layoff and a recent rehab/restart process; he’s shown flashes but has an elevated underlying xFIP– and more variance in results, so the Braves’ barrel-heavy lineup has an exploitable matchup. In short: expect strikeouts and sequence swings, not a tactical pitchers’ duel — entertaining unless you’re allergic to long at-bats and lineup fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Pitchers headline this one: Michael Wacha’s steady, deep-inning craft meets Jack Leiter’s high-velocity upside, so it’s worth tuning in if you like a well-pitched duel rather than a run-fest. The gNERD of 9.81 sits a touch below today’s game average and historical mean, telling you this won’t be must-see for everyone, but the matchup is salvaged by above-average pNERD (5.73) — Leiter (7.04) brings the swing-and-miss velo and youth while Wacha (4.42) has been the Royals’ dependable workhorse this season. Team NERDs under 4 reflect blunt offenses and shaky pens, so expect fewer fireworks; both clubs also show positive “Luck,” implying some underperformance that could nudge things toward tighter, lower-scoring games. Leiter’s stuff and age make him the more volatile, watchable arm; Wacha’s command and track record make for a contrast in styles that’s satisfying on its own. In short: skip this if you want power and chaos, pick it if you want a pitcher-versus-lineup chess match with a young arm who could break the game open.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Texas Rangers

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 9:15a

Summary

Middling but watchable: this is a pitcher-driven duel worth tuning into if you like breakout stuff more than slugfests — Spencer Miles' early-season surge makes the game interesting, even if the overall matchup's NERD math is only modest. The gNERD of 9.77 sits a hair below today's mean and around the long-run median, driven almost entirely by a high pNERD for Miles (8.87) versus a quiet one for Kyle Bradish (2.36), while both teams post underwhelming tNERDs that temper scoring upside. Miles profiles as the real novelty — an up‑and‑down usage turned into a legitimate starter option with low xFIP- and mid-90s velocity, making him a high-leverage watch because he misses bats and attacks the zone in ways that the ordinary viewer notices. Bradish has been uneven this season but has flashes (and has been tweaking his approach, leaning on his breaking stuff), so you could see streaky innings rather than a steady, dominant outing. The Orioles' poor defense and both clubs' taxed bullpens raise the chance of late-game drama, so this is a solid mid-tier pick for viewing: not must-see, but entertaining if you care about pitching narratives.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

Spencer Miles, Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals, 10:35a

Summary

Worth a look if you like offense and late‑inning bullpen theater; less so if you wanted a pitchers’ duel. The game’s middling gNERD (9.70) is driven by two high tNERD clubs — the Padres (9.10) and Nationals (8.04) — so expect interesting lineup/defense matchups and bullpen leverage rather than starting‑pitching dominance. Griffin Canning’s positive pNERD (3.58) comes with a clear caveat: he was recently reinstated from the IL after Achilles surgery and has been uneven in his early returns, so his underlying metrics (xFIP-ish neutrality plus a big luck component in the pNERD) suggest upside even if surface results look ugly. Zack Littell’s negative pNERD (−1.31) and bloated xFIP‑style component mark him as the weaker arm despite a tidy five‑scoreless outing earlier this month, so Washington’s starter is the bigger question mark. The Padres’ bullpen — anchored by an overpowering closer — is a real watchability attractor and could supply the late drama that lifts an otherwise middling pitching matchup. Overall: prioritize this for offense, defensive plays, and save‑opportunity tension; skip it if you wanted to see two top‑flight starters.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Washington Nationals

Griffin Canning, San Diego Padres

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

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New York Yankees @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

Not a can't-miss barnburner, but a clear preference for Yankees-watchers: a reliable-seeming Will Warren goes up against an Athletics starter whose peripherals scream trouble, while New York’s offense profiles as the real engine of interest. Statistically the matchup sits below the median gNERD, but the mismatch between Warren (pNERD 6.10) and Jacob Lopez (pNERD -2.82) — and New York’s high team NERD — give this tilt a watchable, lop-sided flavor. Warren arrives with the aura of a breakout rotation piece and a string of quality starts that make him the safer bet to eat innings and rack strikeouts. Lopez has shown command and sw-strike issues this year and carries a high xFIP, which makes him vulnerable to a Yankees lineup that barrels and racks runs at the top end of the league’s profile. The A’s elevated “luck” number suggests their results may flip sooner or later — a little intrigue — but on paper this is a Yankees-favored, pitcher-plus-offense show rather than a tight duel, so pick it if you like strikeouts from Warren and offensive fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Athletics

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Not a must-see, but it’s worth a look if you want offense: Chicago’s lineup and batted‑ball profile make this a team-first watch, while Detroit’s poor underlying team play but large positive “luck” number hints at volatility. MLB and preview sources list Keider Montero for Detroit and Sean Burke for Chicago, so this shapes the matchup.

The gNERD (8.56) sits below today’s average, so expect a middling watchability overall; the White Sox tNERD (8.14) is the engine here—above‑average barrel rate and batting runs suggest sticky offense—while Detroit’s tNERD (2.35) reflects weak defense and baserunning but a big Luck component (they’ve been underperforming their peripherals), which means they’re likelier to bounce back than their raw record implies. Keider Montero’s pNERD (2.06) flags a low swing‑and‑miss profile and elevated xFIP‑; he’s not a strikeout threat, whereas Burke’s modestly better pNERD (4.57) and higher Strike% make him the steadier arm on paper. Recent previews and injury updates note Detroit’s sketchier health and betting markets favor Chicago, so pick this if you want potential run scoring driven by the White Sox lineup and Detroit’s looming regression—skip it if you prefer dominant pitching duels.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

Not a can't-miss showdown — the gNERD of 8.17 sits below today's mean, but there are two watchable threads: Bryce Miller's return-to-form stuff and Merrill Kelly's veteran floor. The Mariners bring a legitimately potent offense and pop in the lineup, and Miller — recently activated from the IL and flashing mid-to-upper-90s velocity with a seven-pitch mix in his rehab/debut — gives this game upside for strikeout-orientated innings and hard-contact suppression (MLB). Merrill Kelly’s pNERD (0.92) is muted because his underlying numbers look worse than surface results (high xFIP-), though he did turn in a seven‑inning, two‑run win on May 25 — so expect a veteran who can eat innings but not often miss bats. Team-wise, Seattle’s offense has been one of the more productive units this season, which helps the Mariners’ tNERD even as their poor defensive runs depress watchability; Arizona’s strengths are fielding and baserunning rather than slugging, so this shapes up as a game of (1) whether Miller’s arsenal keeps the D-backs quiet and (2) whether Kelly can avoid hard contact. If you prioritize young stuff and strikeout leverage, tune in; if you need high gNERD fireworks, this one rates below average for the day.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Seattle Mariners

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:40a

Summary

Not a can't-miss duel — gNERD 6.83 sits well below ordinary — but Shane McClanahan’s start and the Angels’ overall roster weaknesses make this worth a glance for strikeout-hungry viewers. McClanahan’s higher pNERD (6.66) and strong season peripherals mark him as the game’s main draw: he’s been one of the Rays’ more reliable arms this year and owns a stout track record specifically versus the Angels.

The rest argues against appointment viewing: the combined team NERD is painfully low (Angels 0.38; Rays 2.64), reflecting an Angels lineup/defense that drags entertainment value down and a Rays club that’s efficient rather than explosive. Kochanowicz’s pNERD (3.98) and season swing — good April, rougher May — suggest he’s more likely to shorten the game than stretch it into a long, high-leverage contest.

If you prioritize pitcher-batter chess and strikeout upside, McClanahan’s arsenal and Statcast profile justify tuning in; if you want back-and-forth offense or bullpen drama, the NERD components say there are better options.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Los Angeles Angels

Tampa Bay Rays

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

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San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

Low-stakes slog, with one volatile arm worth a glance: the gNERD of 5.45 puts this near the bottom of the watchability scale, driven by two teams with anemic tNERDs, but Tanner Gordon’s above-average pNERD and huge luck component make him the lone live variable. MLB lists Robbie Ray and Tanner Gordon as the probables, so this is very much the Ray-versus-Gordon matchup on paper.

Both clubs’ team profiles are depressing: weak barrel rates and negative batting-run contributors drive the tiny tNERDs, which explains the overall low gNERD. The Giants arrive on a short losing skid, underscoring their offensive funk.

Pitching contrast matters: Ray’s pNERD is dull (his peripherals here point toward below-average outcomes), while Gordon’s pNERD is the brighter number and his big “luck” signal suggests he’s been underperforming his peripherals — a reasonable bet for regression toward better starts. Coors Field’s altitude, meanwhile, can amplify whatever offense shows up, so this game is more of a soft live bet for swings than a must-watch showcase.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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