MLB: What to watch on June 28, 2026

• 28 June 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

This is one of the day's clearest “must-watch” spotlights: a high-powered Dodgers lineup and a high-pNERD Emmet Sheehan against a Padres club that pitches respectably but has been maimed by its offense. The matchup is official and billed Sheehan vs. Michael King.

The gNERD (15.24) and team NERD split (Dodgers 11.08, Padres 8.97) say what your eyeballs will: the Dodgers bring elite run creation and barrel rates while San Diego contributes strong defense and a bullpen that can keep things close — but the Padres’ offense has been a real drag in underlying measures.

Sheehan’s pNERD (7.11) is the headline: his swing‑and‑miss and underlying peripherals are the reason to tune in, and his positive “luck” suggests his box‑score ERA understates the skill there (expect better results than the surface 5.32 ERA). King is steadier but less entertaining (pNERD 3.32), a pitcher whose surface ERA looks nicer than the peripherals imply.

Short version: the game pairs a lineup-versus-peripheral mismatch and a pitcher with upside in his arsenal — prime viewing if you care about good at‑bats and strikeout chase narratives.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Worth tuning in mainly for Gavin Williams — his swing-and-miss stuff and underlying metrics make this a true pitcher-watch despite a fairly meek Mariners lineup. The gNERD of 13.29 is driven almost entirely by a high average pNERD (8.48) — Williams (pNERD 10.35) has the velocity, strikeout profile and strong underlying numbers that scream “high-leverage duel potential,” while Emerson Hancock (pNERD 6.61) is competent but possibly on a piggyback/short outing, which caps the game’s ceiling.

Analytically: Williams’ excellent xFIP-related components, sw-strike and velo give him clear edges; Hancock’s season has been efficient (solid xFIP/FIP and K/9) and he’s historically handled Cleveland well, but manager usage could limit his innings.

Team-wise, Cleveland’s higher tNERD reflects more entertaining peripherals (bullpen and defense) versus Seattle’s weaker fielding and baserunning marks, so expect a pitchers’-duel tilt with the Guardians offering the more interesting complements (and a recent prospect debut/injury chatter that spices the bullpen/lineup narrative).

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Seattle Mariners

Cleveland Guardians

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

This is a pitcher-driven watch: Jesús Luzardo’s high pNERD and underlying metrics make this a “tune in for the starter” game, while the Mets’ use of Cionel Pérez as an opener turns the other half into bullpen theater. Luzardo’s pNERD (10.82) reflects a legitimately strong profile — excellent xFIP-, above-average velocity, and a big positive luck term (23.0) that suggests his surface numbers could improve — so you should expect quality swing-and-miss stuff and the chance of multiple useful innings from him. The Mets are handing the ball to Pérez as an opener in a bullpen game, which explains his pNERD=0 (no starter history) and shifts intrigue to the Mets’ relievers; both teams’ bullpens are positive contributors in the tNERD, so late-inning matchups could be lively. With a gNERD of 13.27, this outing sits well above the historical median and above today’s average, meaning it’s one of the more watchable games on the slate if you prioritize pitcher quality and strategic bullpen deployment.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Cionel Pérez, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Watch this if you like tidy pitching duels that could suddenly open up — the gNERD (12.49) sits above today’s mean and just into the upper quartile historically, driven by two competent-ish starters and two teams with interesting complementary profiles. Ryan Rolison and Brandon Woodruff both carry pNERD scores around 4.6, so expect solid command and low variance rather than fireworks, but Woodruff’s recent comeback adds intrigue after he was activated from the IL and dominated in his return start.

The matchup is watchable because the teams’ tNERDs are high: Chicago’s strengths in defense and broadcast appeal raise the ceiling, while Milwaukee’s lineup and a wobbly bullpen make late-game volatility plausible. Rolison’s surface numbers this year suggest true effectiveness, so if he keeps missing barrels the Cubs can lengthen his outing and expose Milwaukee’s shaky relief depth. In short: a pitcher-forward game with a tidy start, a storyline (Woodruff’s return), and a bullpen that could flip the script — good counterprogramming for viewers who prefer baseball without constant home-run theater.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Rolison, Chicago Cubs

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 4:20p

Summary

Worth tuning in: this is a pick‑em of analytics and narrative — a top‑quartile gNERD (12.31) driven by a powerful Yankees lineup against a red‑hot, veteran Sonny Gray, so you get quality pitching without surrendering the chance of loud offense. MLB lists Carlos Rodón and Sonny Gray as the probables for the series finale.

The Yankees’ high tNERD (10.12) comes from elite batting runs, barrel rate and baserunning, so even missing big names their depth can still produce run‑creating chances; Boston’s lower tNERD (6.19) masks outstanding fielding and a large positive “luck” number (18) — meaning the Sox have underperformed their underlying profile and could poke back at the scoreboard. Rodón and Gray both have middling pNERD (~4), so the starters should be competent rather than theatrical; Gray’s season has been especially strong (9–1, ~2.95), while Rodón is solid but less dominant (4–2, ~3.70).

Bottom line: expect a watchable, strategically rich game — bullpen leverage and lineup contrast supply the fireworks, but don’t plan on a slugfest unless Boston’s offense shakes off its bad luck.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

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Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

Worth tuning in: this is a mid-pack but tidy watch — two lively lineups and a spry Marlins squad chasing a sweep against a defense-first Cardinals team, but neither starter projects to dominate the strikeout column. SI’s preview notes Miami is rolling into Busch Stadium looking to finish the job after back-to-back wins in the series.

The gNERD (11.36) sits above the historical median and today’s mean, driven more by team components (MIA 8.03, STL 7.21) than by elite pitching: both Tyler Phillips and Kyle Leahy rank modestly in pNERD, meaning you’re likeliest to see contact, baserunning action, and bullpen leverage rather than a 10-K duel. MLB and CBS pregame pages confirm Phillips and Leahy as the probables and show Phillips with quality velocity and reasonable peripherals, while Leahy profiles as a league-average starter who gets outs by pace and defense behind him.

Marlins’ tNERD is propped up by high baserunning, youth and a surprisingly positive bullpen component; the Cardinals counter with strong fielding that should keep ball-in-play games low-scoring and tense. For viewers who prefer situational baseball, small-ball, and managerial chess over swing-for-the-fences fireworks, this is a solid pick.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

This is a pitcher-first game worth tuning into if you like watching elite stuff get tested: Chris Sale’s sky-high pNERD (8.42) suggests plenty of swing-and-miss, while Robbie Ray’s low pNERD (1.31) makes this feel like Sale-favored unless the Giants’ volatile offense heats up. Sale’s season (8–5, 2.14) and underlying metrics — excellent xFIP- and strong strike/whiff rates — argue he’ll suppress runs and rack Ks; Ray has the reputation for boom outings (he struck out eight in a June start vs. Atlanta) but his worse xFIP- and lower strike% imply more hittable contact. The Braves’ higher tNERD (6.45) is driven by barrel rate and fielding, but their bloated bullpen runs hint at late-game drama; the Giants’ team NERD is low (3.56) yet their positive “Luck” suggests the offense could outperform underlying metrics in short order — and they just blanked Atlanta behind Rafael Devers’ two homers, so don’t write them off. Overall gNERD 9.87 sits near today’s average, so this isn’t a must-watch thriller but it’s a tidy duel with clear storylines: elite Sale vs. a streaky Giants lineup, with a shaky Braves ‘pen providing intrigue late.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Atlanta Braves

San Francisco Giants

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

Not a must-watch by the day’s standards, but worth tuning in if you like a real-live strikeout upside paired with bullpen volatility. The game’s gNERD (8.81) sits below today’s average (9.84) and a bit under the historical median (10.10), driven by a stronger Rangers tNERD (5.77) versus a quiet Blue Jays offense (3.28) and middling pitcher NERDs. Kumar Rocker brings the interest — a modest 3.59 pNERD after a career‑high nine‑K outing in his last start and a showing that suggests swing-and-miss upside even as his strike% component looks soft. After a short, scratchy 3 2/3‑inning return appearance, Shane Bieber’s box score is thin enough that his pNERD is listed as 0, making him an unpredictable foil who could produce a quick hook and meatier bullpen action. The Rangers’ big positive “Luck” component hints they’ve been underperforming and might break out, while both bullpens’ positive marks suggest late‑inning drama. In short: a borderline watch with a single compelling subplot — Rocker’s K ceiling against a Blue Jays lineup that’s been cold.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:40a

Summary

If you want strikeouts, tune in for Drew Rasmussen; if you want drama, Merrill Kelly’s 2026 numbers promise some. Rasmussen’s high pNERD (8.76) and underlying profile — a 69 xFIP- with mid-90s life and an uptick in strike% — make him the clear attraction, while Kelly’s meek pNERD (0.71) and ugly xFIP- (128) set up a classic lopsided duel.

The game’s gNERD (8.56) sits below today’s average (9.84) and the historical mean (~10.1), so it’s not the day’s top pick, but the contrast matters: Tampa’s roster metrics are modest (tNERD 3.32) and show low barrel rates and defensive drift, but a positive “luck” component suggests they may be due for better results, which keeps things interesting. Arizona’s tNERD (4.33) is slightly stronger defensively but their offense has been quiet. Merrill Kelly’s recent rough outing and nagging inconsistency amplify the mismatch, so expect a low-to-moderate-scoring game driven by Rasmussen’s ability to miss bats and Kelly’s struggle to do so — good if you like pitchers’ duels, less so if you want fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tampa Bay Rays

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

Not the must-see centerpiece of the day, but a tidy little game: Pittsburgh’s better team metrics and Mitch Keller’s “bad luck” signal upside, while Brady Singer’s soft stuff and Cincinnati’s thin bullpen make this a watchable mismatch rather than a thriller. The gNERD (8.32) sits below today’s mean, so don’t expect a fireworks-level tilt—what makes the game passably interesting is process: Pittsburgh’s tNERD is driven by above-average batting runs and baserunning, while the Reds’ team profile tilts toward low overall offensive value and a shaky relief corps (the Reds’ bullpen has been banged up this series). Both starters project as contact-heavy, below-average strikeout pitchers with xFIP- north of 100, so this will likely be a ball-in-play, pitching-to-contact duel rather than a K-fest; Singer’s quick pace could keep the game moving. Keller’s recent rough outing aside, his positive luck component suggests the underlying numbers allow for a rebound, which is the main storyline to watch. Overall: low-to-medium interest—tune in if you like contact baseball, tidy innings, and a possible Keller bounceback.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

Not a can't-miss telecast, but worth a look if you like texture over theatrics: a low gNERD (8.18) game built around a hometown angle and a pitcher-versus-revival storyline rather than fireworks. Hunter Brown’s return to the Detroit area (he’s from nearby St. Clair Shores) gives the game a local-interest hook, but his pNERD of 0.00 means there’s no fancy projection data to promise domination; treat him as a live unknown rather than a sure bet. Jack Flaherty (pNERD 3.01) shows the more interesting analytical story: his surface numbers have been shaky, yet his positive “luck” component implies he’s underperforming his peripherals and could be due for better results — though his xFIP- and chase/whiff indicators aren’t glowing, so improvement isn’t guaranteed. Team NERDs favor Detroit modestly (Tigers 4.90 vs Astros 3.44), driven by a high barrel rate and a very large team luck number that suggests the Tigers may be better than recent results indicate. All told, expect a quietly watchable contest for context-driven viewers rather than fans chasing strikeout orgies or offensive fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Not a must-see: this is a bullpen-and-bat-driven mismatch more than a pitching duel, with the White Sox’s lineup and team metrics doing the heavy lifting while two low-pNERD starters park the game near below-average watchability. Luinder Avila brings rookie intrigue and mid-90s juice after his 2025 debut, and Anthony Kay arrives off a very strong recent outing, but both pitchers show weak chase and strike rates in the underlying profile, which suppresses their pNERD contributions and the game’s upside. The White Sox’s tNERD is high thanks to above-average batting runs and a healthy barrel profile, while the Royals post a far weaker team sheet and a notably shaky bullpen that tilts late-inning leverage away from excitement. The gNERD of 7.96 sits below both the historical mean and today’s average, meaning you’ll probably see more offense from Chicago than a tense, pitch-by-pitch duel; tune in if you want to watch a young Avila test his velocity against a spry, hard-contact White Sox order, otherwise there are greener NERD pastures today.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

Luinder Avila, Kansas City Royals

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Not must-see TV, but worth a look if you like young offenses and bullpen drama: Washington’s sprightly lineup and elite baserunning give this one some life, while Kyle Bradish’s steadier peripherals promise low-variance starting pitching. The gNERD sits below today’s average (7.86), driven by a strong Nationals tNERD (8.10) and a weak Orioles team score (3.99), but a low average pNERD (1.81) keeps this from being a top-tier watch. Littell’s peripherals are ugly—big xFIP- mark and essentially no swing-and-miss—so expect hitter-friendly innings if Baltimore gets solid contact; he’s very much the live-arm lottery here. Bradish grades noticeably better in underlying metrics (substantially lower xFIP- and strong K totals this season), so you’ll see fewer Green Monster-sized blowups from the Orioles’ starter, although his slow pace could sap some urgency. Washington’s youth and +baserunning component make for active bases and rally chances, and a shaky Nats bullpen (major negative component) raises the chance of late-inning twists. Starters and matchup previews confirm the announced pitchers and lines.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Baltimore Orioles

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

This one’s a low-voltage affair by the numbers — gNERD 6.64 sits well below both today’s and historical averages — but there’s a small pitching subplot worth a look: a returning Ryan Feltner versus the Twins’ high-upside, innings-managed rookie Connor Prielipp. Feltner’s recent work since coming off the IL has been tidy and encouraging after earlier ulnar-nerve trouble, which makes him a steadier, if uninspiring, watch; the coverage of his recovery and efficient starts suggests he’s healthy enough to eat innings. Prielipp’s big-league arrival (and the club’s deliberate effort to cap his innings) is the real novelty here — he profiles as the better pNERD (5.61) and carries lofty “luck” that implies his underlying metrics outpace surface results, so he could surprise. The teams drag this down: both tNERDs are abysmal (2.6 and 2.5) because of weak offense/defense profiles, so expect a subdued game where pitcher play and a handful of matchups matter more than fireworks. If you want intrigue, watch Prielipp; if you want offense, skip.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Colorado Rockies

Minnesota Twins

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels, 12:15p

Summary

Skip this one unless you’re a die‑hard box‑score scraper: it’s a low-energy pitching duel with little in the way of fireworks. The gNERD of 3.50 (pNERD average 0.28, tNERDs 4.76 vs 1.67) flags a slog: both starters carry weak underlying peripherals (Civale’s pNERD 0.66 with a high xFIP‑; Aldegheri’s pNERD −0.09 and an even uglier xFIP‑), and the Angels’ team profile (tNERD 1.67) promises limited lineup juice. The A’s are more watchable on paper—better batting and a big positive Luck (+16) that suggests they’ve been running below their expected offense and could snap to form—but they also offer poor defense and bland broadcast appeal. Civale has shown a swingy recent run of starts and looks like the more reliable veteran piece; Aldegheri is a 24‑year‑old arm with upside but little track record, so novelty aside he’s likely to produce contact and baserunners. In short: analytically, this projects as a low‑strikeout, low‑movement game that’ll interest only process nerds or those betting the run line.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Athletics

Los Angeles Angels

Aaron Civale, Athletics

Sam Aldegheri, Los Angeles Angels

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  MLB: What to watch on June 27, 2026