MLB: What to watch on July 11, 2026

• 11 July 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:05a

Summary

Watch this for a contrast of sharp, repeatable pitching (Braxton Ashcraft) against a volatile, high-upside arm with recent health noise (Brandon Sproat) — the kind of duel that makes scorekeepers sweat and fans lean in. With a gNERD of 16.62 (well above the historical median and sitting at the top of today’s slate), the matchup’s watchability is driven more by pitching than by broadcast sparkle: both teams have strong tNERD profiles, but it’s the pNERD gap that matters. Ashcraft’s 11.08 pNERD reflects a legitimately excellent underlying profile — a 75 xFIP-, above-average stuff and heavy contact-miss and strike-rate signals, plus frequent deep outings that stabilize games. Sproat’s 6.78 shows real juice (96+ mph) and youth, but his chase and command variance — plus a recent hamstring cramp that forced an early exit yet wasn’t expected to linger — make him a volatile watch; he can deliver swing-and-miss nights or quick hooks. Expect a pitchers’ contest with occasional offensive sparks: Pirates’ strong run creation and Brewers’ bullpen/run metrics keep late innings interesting.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

This is a pitcher-driven watch: Eury Pérez’s high-end stuff and strong pNERD make Miami the headline act, while Cleveland’s middling staff and a solid Marlins tNERD promise more action than a sleepy matinee. Pérez (pNERD 7.30) is the cleavage of intrigue here—his upper-90s velocity and above-average whiff profile suggest swing-and-miss upside, and he’s just worked his way back from a gracilis strain that recently sent him on a short rehab track. Tanner Bibee (pNERD 3.58) is less of a spectacle: useful but inconsistent, with some shoulder reminders earlier in the year and a season of streaky results, so expect contact and long innings rather than strikeout duels. Team-wise, Miami’s tNERD (10.11) points to more baserunning/relief-induced eventfulness and the Guardians’ quieter offense (tNERD 6.35) lowers the ceiling for long slogs. The 13.68 gNERD sits well above the historical mean, so if you like heat, strikeouts, and bullpen leverage, this is one of the better games to pick; if you prefer sustained offensive fireworks, pick a different contest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Miami Marlins

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers, 3:10p

Summary

If you want premium pitching with a twist, tune in: Cristopher Sánchez brings bona fide ace stuff but recent volatility, while Casey Mize offers a quietly effective big-league rebound — that combo lifts this to a legitimately watchable game.

The gNERD of 13.51 sits well above the historic mean (10.11) and today's average (11.01), driven mostly by strong pNERD (8.18) rather than flashy team profiles. Sánchez's 10.00 pNERD reflects elite underlying metrics (dominant xFIP- and swing-and-miss history) but also real recent noise — he had a long scoreless run and then a rough, nine-run outing — so his start is high-variance. Mize's 6.36 pNERD and steady 2.64 ERA this season point to controlled, attack-mode pitching coming off an IL stint; he's the steadier counterbalance.

Team NERDs are middling (Phils 5.63, Tigers 5.01): Philadelphia's baserunning and bullpen add entertainment, Detroit's barrel rate and positive “luck” suggest upside, so expect a pitcher-driven game where one big inning or a bullpen wobble decides things.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Detroit Tigers

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

Good pitching vs. good lineup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the kind of starter who turns a game into must-see TV, and the Dodgers’ top-heavy offense gives his outing immediate stakes. The gNERD of 13.46 sits well above today’s mean (11.01) and even above the historical 75th percentile (12.00), so this is legitimately a notch-more-watchable contest rather than a shrug. Yamamoto’s high pNERD (8.34) mirrors recent form — he’s an NL All‑Star and has shown swing-and-miss and strikeout upside in his big-league starts. Brandon Pfaadt (pNERD 3.91) is more of a live gamble: he’s shown moments but has struggled with run prevention and consistency this season. The team split pushes the story: the Dodgers’ offense and depth are serious (tNERD 10.70), which raises the scoreboard potential, while Arizona’s offense is one of the weaker pieces here (tNERD 3.98), though their defense grades better — so expect a game defined by Yamamoto’s ability to shut a dangerous lineup down and whether Pfaadt can keep damage limited. Overall: watch for ace-level pitching sparking competitive tension rather than a blowout, with the Dodgers’ firepower making every Yamamoto frame feel consequential.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:05p

Summary

Worth tuning in: this one rates above most games today—gNERD 12.99—because two lively, contrasting staffs and an intriguing lefty-righty pairing promise action rather than a bullpen slog. Shane Drohan’s higher pNERD and tidy peripherals suggest controlled contact and a chance for quality innings, while Bubba Chandler’s raw heat and shaky underlying numbers lean toward high-leverage swings and run-scoring chances.

Milwaukee’s tNERD (7.91) reflects a balanced roster with plus baserunning and a strong bullpen, and Pittsburgh’s (7.45) leans on a loud offense and aggressive baserunning offset by poor defensive runs, which together make this game a likely seesaw of short bursts of scoring rather than a pitcher’s duel. Drohan was a recent call-up who’s been worked into the rotation, so his lefty craftiness is worth watching in a matchup against a younger, harder-throwing Chandler. Chandler’s stuff can produce strikeouts and big innings, but his surface results and walk rates have been uneven this year—perfect recipe for excitement. The doubleheader context means both teams may gamble with matchups and relievers, which raises the watchability even more.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Watch this if you like watching a flamethrower try to bully a shaky relief bridge — Cam Schlittler’s rise makes this worthwhile; ignore Poulin’s pNERD at your peril. Cam’s high-octane profile (mid-to-upper-90s velocity, big strikeout upside) and recent breakout form make him the primary entertainment engine here, which matches his strong pNERD (10.21) and recent write-ups calling him a legitimate breakout/All-Star candidate. The Yankees’ team profile adds punch (tNERD 9.33) — especially barrels and aggressive baserunning — while Washington’s lineup shows pop too, but the Nats’ bullpen is a notable drag (bullpen runs well below average), which amplifies the game’s volatility if Schlittler falters. PJ Poulin’s negative pNERD (-2.50) reflects real trouble in underlying metrics and his recent role as a short-appearance reliever/opener after a recall, so expect mismatches and quick hooks. The gNERD of 12.68 sits above today’s mean (11.01) and above the historical 75th percentile (12.00), so this is a stronger-than-average watch — largely for Schlittler’s stuff and the bullpen-driven swings the Nats offer.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Yankees (2.08); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Washington Nationals

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

PJ Poulin, Washington Nationals

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Athletics @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Worth a glance mostly for Gage Jump’s arm and the White Sox’s offense — this isn’t a can’t-miss pitching duel, but a high-talent rookie vs. a team that profiles to create action. The gNERD (11.22) sits slightly above today’s mean and between the historical median and 75th percentile, which matches the box: a lively young starter (Jump, pNERD 6.28) against a competent lefty (Hudson, pNERD 4.15) and a markedly better White Sox lineup (tNERD 8.47) than Oakland’s (tNERD 3.55). Jump brings fresh prospect intrigue — genuine velocity, youth, and strikeout upside after a recent call-up and strong minor-league track record — so his start elevates watchability beyond the raw numbers. The White Sox’s offense and barrel rate promise traffic on the bases and chances to test Jump, while Hudson’s below-average velocity and middling swing-and-miss profile suggest contact and bullpen work — good for viewers who prefer lineup-driven games. Oakland’s weak fielding and bullpen metrics drag the contest’s long-term drama down, but Jump’s ceiling and Chicago’s bats make this an enjoyable, above-average watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Athletics

Chicago White Sox

Gage Jump, Athletics

Bryan Hudson, Chicago White Sox

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Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, 1:10p

Summary

Pitchers steal the show: two well-above-average arms and mid-90s velo set up a grinding, watchable duel rather than a fireworks display. Logan Gilbert’s recent stretch and Griffin Jax’s swing-to-contact suppression make this a fascinating pitcher-versus-pitcher matchup, even though both clubs’ team profiles pull the game away from “must-see” excitement. Gilbert comes in on a legitimate hot run with longer outings after the Mariners tinkered with piggyback usage, and his surface metrics point to strong underlying contact/strikeout outcomes. Jax has settled into Tampa Bay’s rotation with encouraging peripherals and — despite a recent comebacker that left him day-to-day — was reported confident to make his next turn, which keeps the matchup intact. Analytically, both starters post sub-100 xFIP- equivalents and above-average whiff/velocity profiles, which explains the high pNERD pairing (7.10/7.48) and the game’s gNERD ~11: slightly above the historical median and essentially league-average for the day. The teams lower tNERDs reflect weak defensive marks (Seattle) and a bland batted-ball profile (Tampa Bay), but both clubs’ positive “luck” numbers hint they could produce more offense than recent box scores show — so expect a low-to-moderate scoring, strikeout-leaning game where a single mistake matters.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

This is a mildly watchable pitcher’s duel on paper — two capable arms and a lively Padres supporting cast make for a game worth a glance, but the matchup lacks the fireworks that push a tilt into must-see territory. The gNERD (10.56) sits almost exactly at the historic median and just below today’s mean, which matches the feel: competent starting pitching (Buehler a touch ahead of Yesavage on pNERD) and a clear contrast in team profiles — Toronto’s offense has been slogging through a rough stretch while San Diego brings defense, baserunning and a deep bullpen that can spice late innings. Yesavage carries the rookie-phenom storyline and age-driven upside after an IL-managed spring and limited work, which explains his deceptively even pNERD despite a higher xFIP-. Buehler’s season has had uneven patches but recent starts show signs of a rebound, and his positive “luck” component here suggests underlying metrics could translate into better results. San Diego’s bullpen and defense are real entertainment multipliers — they’re why the Padres’ tNERD is so elevated. Overall: tune in for tidy pitching, bullpen intrigue and a rookie storyline; don’t expect an all-out slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Toronto Blue Jays

San Diego Padres

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15p

Summary

Not must-see drama, but a tidy little tug-of-war: two teams with lively team profiles but underwhelming strikeout pitching, and Matthew Liberatore’s boom-or-bust recent form makes this one worth a glance. The gNERD of 10.50 sits almost exactly at the historical median (10.11) and a touch below today’s average, so this is more “solid background game” than headline event.

Both clubs’ tNERD marks (Braves 6.55, Cards 6.97) are higher than typical, driven by good defensive metrics and a noticeable contrast in bullpen profiles—Atlanta’s relief corps is still viewed as a strength despite hiccups, while St. Louis’ pen has been a recurring problem. Pitching NERD pulls things down: Reynaldo López’s pNERD (2.55) suggests fewer fireworks, and while Liberatore’s 4.93 is the more watchable arm he’s been wildly inconsistent—he struck out nine in a strong outing against Atlanta on June 30 but has also had very short, ugly starts recently—so expect volatility rather than dominance. Liberatore’s positive luck number hints he may be due for better peripherals even if results oscillate. If you favor defensive play and bullpen drama over strikeout duels, give this one a look; otherwise it’s fine on in the background.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

Worth watching if you value quietly interesting pitcher-versus-team narratives rather than fireworks: the gNERD (10.16) sits almost exactly at the historical mean, and this game’s intrigue comes from Freddy Peralta’s profile as an underperforming, high-leverage arm on a new team rather than from a marquee offensive showdown. The Red Sox’s higher tNERD (6.46) is driven by elite fielding and a stout bullpen plus unusually positive “luck,” while the Mets trade for Peralta and his mixed results this season make him a watchable variable—Peralta’s underlying numbers are roughly league-average (xFIP- ≈ 99) but his run of poor outcomes and trade-deadline chatter add storyline value. With Boston’s starter listed as TBD, there’s roster suspense that nudges up interest (and means a pNERD of 0 for the opponent). Practically: expect a pitchers’ duel tilted by defense and bullpen leverage; Peralta’s positive “luck” component suggests he may be due for better results, so if you like games decided by subtle matchup advantages and roster storylines, prioritize this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Boston Red Sox

New York Mets

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

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Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

Low overall watchability — mediocre offenses and ugly defensive marks make this a plodder, but the pitching matchup gives it a pulse: Joe Ryan's steadiness versus a volatile young Ryan Johnson. Joe Ryan (pNERD 6.76) is the safer draw—his underlying stuff (sub-100 xFIP-) and strong strike rates point to quality innings if his recent elbow hiccup has fully cleared. Ryan Johnson (pNERD 5.79) is the storyline: a 23‑year‑old prospect who’s flashed, including a one‑hit, eight‑strikeout six‑inning outing recently, so he brings the sort of high-variance entertainment that matters more than team-level charm. The low gNERD (8.59) reflects that both teams’ tNERDs are puny (Angels 1.68, Twins 2.94) and today’s overall games are skewed higher; expect a pitcher’s duel with occasional fireworks rather than a free‑wheeling slugfest. If you prioritize tidy pitching and a rookie‑vs‑veteran narrative, tune in; if you want offense, skip this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Los Angeles Angels

Minnesota Twins

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Not a must-see: the gNERD (8.05) sits well below today's and historical medians, and the teams' tNERDs are muted — this looks like a slow-burn pitching duel with a couple of subplot twists rather than a guaranteed fireworks show. Noah Cameron’s pNERD (5.39) is the more interesting of the two: he brings quick pace and a youthful edge, plus some positive luck, which boosts the chance of a tidy, efficient outing; he’s had a brief back issue earlier in the season but was expected to be fine. Kyle Bradish’s lower pNERD (2.91) reflects alarming strike-rate and painfully slow pace, which dampens action even though he has flashed ace-level stuff in spots (including a recent one‑hit outing). Team-wise, both clubs score low on tNERD (KC 3.70, BAL 4.10) so lineup fireworks aren’t predicted, but the bullpen contrast — KC’s a liability, BAL’s been solid — gives the late innings some intrigue. The game is watchable if you like pitching duel nuance, pace quirks, and potential bullpen volatility; don’t expect a can’t‑miss slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Baltimore Orioles

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

If you want popcorn-level action, this one’s a pass: a low gNERD (7.76) driven by two ordinary pNERDs and a painfully weak Rockies offense makes this more of a nap-friendly pitcher matchup than a must-watch. Kyle Freeland and Tyler Mahle are competent veterans whose underlying skills point to modest outcomes rather than fireworks, and the overall team numbers (Rockies tNERD 1.87, Giants tNERD 4.29) don’t promise a wild game.

Freeland’s story is the most interesting wrinkle — he missed time earlier in the year with shoulder inflammation but has since posted a milestone (1,000 career strikeouts), so there’s narrative value and a sizable positive “luck” signal that suggests he may pitch better than recent results indicate. Mahle has just worked his way back from injury and hasn’t been overpowering this season; his peripherals are around league average while his swing-and-miss rates are low, so look for contact-heavy innings.

Bottom line: analytically this smells like a low-event, contact-oriented game with a handful of plot threads (Freeland’s return-to-form, Mahle’s health) but little in the way of high-ceiling entertainment.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:10p

Summary

Not a can't-miss — more of a low-key, put-it-on-in-the-background kind of game: the gNERD of 7.67 sits near the bottom of today's slate because both starters profile as contact-heavy, below-average-peripheral pitchers. Javier Assad has shown a renewed focus on health and delivered a solid turn in his last outing, and Nick Lodolo is coming back into regular duty after recent injury/return-to-action noise, so there’s a mild narrative tug even if the matchup isn’t sexy. Both team and pitcher NERD components explain the watchability: the Cubs’ tNERD (7.89) is buoyed by excellent defensive runs and decent batting contributions plus strong broadcaster appeal, while the Reds’ low tNERD (4.04) reflects dreadful batting runs offset only by a high barrel rate that could produce episodic homers. The pitchers’ pNERDs (Assad 1.67, Lodolo 1.73) mirror ugly xFIP- marks and almost non‑existent swing‑and‑miss rates, so expect lots of balls in play rather than strikeout theatre; Assad’s brisk pace is one redeeming feature for viewers who prefer games that move. If you value defense, occasional homers, and a returning-Lodolo subplot, give it a look; if you want high-K, high-drama pitching, skip it.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 4:05p

Summary

Not a must-watch: the gNERD is the day's low (7.65) and both starting staffs are offering more tread than fireworks, so this is the sort of game you stream if nothing better is on. The numbers tell a clear story — weak team NERD from Houston (3.39) and only middling support from Texas (5.59) combine with modest pNERD marks for Peter Lambert (2.52) and Kumar Rocker (3.80) to produce a low overall watchability score, meaning fewer strikeout duels or bullpen theatrics are likely. Lambert has been serviceable but not overpowering, and his recent cameo when hit by a comebacker is the most notable narrative on him rather than dominant peripherals. Rocker has shown upside in flashes (a long, scoreless outing earlier this year) but has been uneven and even scratched at times, so expect good innings mixed with some volatility. The Rangers’ very large positive “Luck” component in the tNERD suggests they’ve been underperforming their underlying numbers and might produce some offense out of sequence, but overall this projects as a steady, low-drama pitcher’s duel rather than a must-see slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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