Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on July 18, 2026

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
18.1 10:10a Pittsburgh Pirates 7.6 Cleveland Guardians 7.1 Jared Jones 10.8 Gavin Williams 10.6
17.1 5:08p Los Angeles Dodgers 9.7 New York Yankees 9.1 Emmet Sheehan 6.9 Ryan Weathers 8.5
15.3 1:10p Miami Marlins 9.8 Milwaukee Brewers 8.1 Max Meyer 6.0 Shane Drohan 6.6
13.2 12:05p New York Mets 4.4 Philadelphia Phillies 5.2 Sean Manaea 5.7 Jesús Luzardo 11.1
12.4 11:20a Minnesota Twins 2.8 Chicago Cubs 7.8 Taj Bradley 7.0 Matthew Boyd 7.1
12.3 4:10p Pittsburgh Pirates 7.6 Cleveland Guardians 7.1 TBD No data Logan Allen No data
11.9 1:10p Texas Rangers 5.4 Atlanta Braves 7.1 MacKenzie Gore 6.4 Owen Murphy No data
11.1 1:10p Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 Boston Red Sox 6.6 Ian Seymour 6.7 Patrick Sandoval No data
10.9 12:07p Chicago White Sox 8.7 Toronto Blue Jays 2.5 Davis Martin 5.7 Shane Bieber No data
10.9 7:07p Detroit Tigers 4.9 Los Angeles Angels 1.6 Tarik Skubal 12.4 Grayson Rodriguez 3.0
10.9 1:10p St. Louis Cardinals 6.7 Arizona Diamondbacks 4.7 Dustin May 6.3 Brandon Pfaadt 4.0
10.5 5:08p San Francisco Giants 4.5 Seattle Mariners 2.9 Logan Webb 5.7 Bryan Woo 7.8
9.9 1:10p San Diego Padres 8.9 Kansas City Royals 3.2 Griffin Canning 2.7 Randy Dobnak No data
8.1 7:05p Washington Nationals 9.0 Athletics 3.2 Zack Littell 0.9 J.T. Ginn 3.1
6.4 1:10p Baltimore Orioles 4.6 Houston Astros 3.3 Trevor Rogers 3.6 Spencer Arrighetti 1.2
4.1 12:10p Cincinnati Reds 4.6 Colorado Rockies 1.3 Rhett Lowder 3.1 Tomoyuki Sugano -0.7

Notes:

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:10a

Summary

A high-octane pitching duel between two young power arms who've both battled their way back onto big-league mounds, and the NERD math backs up the hype. At 18.07, this game sits near the top of the pack today (average 11.44) and well above the historical mean of 10.11, driven almost entirely by two electric starters. Jared Jones is finally healthy again after missing all of 2025 following UCL surgery, and he pitched well in five rehab starts before making his season debut on May 29, logging a 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 24 strikeouts across 18.2 innings, though he has posted a 5.75 ERA over five starts since rejoining Pittsburgh. The surface ERA is ugly, but his 98.6 mph average heater and elite xFIP- back his 10.83 pNERD, and positive luck suggests better results are coming. Across the mound, Gavin Williams brings similarly nasty stuff—96.9 mph velocity, a sharp swinging-strike rate, and an xFIP- even better than Jones's—for a near-mirror 10.62 pNERD. Add in two young, scrappy rosters (Pittsburgh's baserunning and power, Cleveland's defense and bullpen depth) and you've got a game that rewards watching for the arms alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 50.3 8.5% 6.3 -16.2 10.9 $119.1M 28.8 4.0 2.01 1.98 — —
Z-score 1.68 0.53 1.37 -1.05 -0.33 -0.96 -0.20 0.23 -0.74 -0.86 — —
tNERD 1.68 0.53 1.37 -1.05 -0.33 0.96 0.20 0.23 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.60

Cleveland Guardians

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -33.1 6.2% 5.2 8.6 28.6 $88.9M 27.6 2.0 2.16 3.14 — —
Z-score -1.05 -1.68 1.12 0.57 0.56 -1.30 -1.35 0.12 -0.44 1.60 — —
tNERD -1.05 -1.68 1.12 0.57 0.56 1.30 1.35 0.12 0.00 0.80 4.00 7.07

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 81 14.2% 62.2% 98.6 mph 24 18.7s 21 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.07 1.68 -0.68 2.03 -1.26 -0.24 — — — —
pNERD 2.15 0.84 -0.34 2.00 1.26 0.12 1.00 0.00 3.80 10.83

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 75 13.2% 66.4% 96.9 mph 26 18.9s 17 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.42 1.21 1.04 1.24 -0.73 -0.07 — — — —
pNERD 2.84 0.61 0.52 1.24 0.73 0.04 0.85 0.00 3.80 10.62

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees, 5:08p

Summary

Good picture here. Now writing the summary.

The Bronx gets a genuine heavyweight tilt Saturday night, with two of baseball's best-resourced rosters and two starters trending up at the right time. This one grades out at 17.09 gNERD, comfortably above today's slate average of 11.44 and well into the upper crust of the historical distribution (95th percentile sits at 14.76). Both lineups carry serious thump — Dodgers tNERD 9.67, Yankees 9.09 — anchored by Shohei Ohtani's 22 homers and .289 average against Ben Rice's 29 bombs and .601 slugging, though the Yankees limp in having managed just one run against Roki the night before, and the club is looking to end a three-game home skid. Sheehan (6.90 pNERD) has quietly tightened up, allowing just three earned runs across his last three starts with a 7.5 percent walk rate. Weathers is the more interesting arm on paper — his xFIP- of 78 drives a strong 8.52 pNERD, and after allowing just one earned run over five and a third innings last time out, he's making his unglamorous 3-7 record look misleading. Both pitchers carry sizable positive luck scores too, suggesting the surface numbers may actually understate their stuff. Skip the pitching lines and just watch: two stacked lineups, two arms rounding into form, and a Yankee Stadium crowd hoping for a laugher that the numbers say probably won't come.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 62.5 9.4% -2.3 14.8 41.2 $413.5M 30.0 8.0 2.45 2.51 — —
Z-score 2.08 1.40 -0.61 0.97 1.19 2.41 0.90 0.46 0.12 0.26 — —
tNERD 2.08 1.40 -0.61 0.97 1.19 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.06 0.13 4.00 9.67

New York Yankees

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 28.9 9.7% 6.3 3.9 33.4 $337.1M 29.9 -12.0 2.08 2.22 — —
Z-score 0.98 1.69 1.37 0.26 0.80 1.54 0.85 -0.66 -0.61 -0.36 — —
tNERD 0.98 1.69 1.37 0.26 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.09

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 92 14.4% 64.4% 94.6 mph 26 20.7s 23 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.45 1.77 0.24 0.18 -0.73 1.42 — — — —
pNERD 0.89 0.88 0.12 0.18 0.73 -0.71 1.00 0.00 3.80 6.90

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 78 11.2% 63.8% 95.2 mph 26 19.2s 22 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.25 0.28 -0.03 0.46 -0.73 0.18 — — — —
pNERD 2.49 0.14 -0.02 0.46 0.73 -0.09 1.00 0.00 3.80 8.52

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Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 1:10p

Summary

A first-place club against a scrappy Marlins outfit, with two under-the-radar arms who've quietly been excellent all year — this one's a sneaky-good watch. Milwaukee, sitting comfortably atop the NL Central, opens the second half at home riding strong bullpen and baserunning numbers, while Miami brings the best team NERD score of the day thanks to elite baserunning and a young, cheap roster overperforming its underlying luck metrics. The pitching matchup is the real draw: Max Meyer went 9-1 with a 2.58 ERA, 3.53 FIP, and 116 strikeouts over 108 innings in the first half, enough to earn him an All-Star selection, and his xFIP- backs up the shiny record. Shane Drohan has been just as sneaky-effective, posting a 4-3 record, 3.09 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and 67 strikeouts over 70 innings in his first extended run as a starter, and this marks Drohan's first career appearance against Miami. Both arms miss enough bats and limit walks to make this more than your average Saturday afternoon getaway game — a 15.26 gNERD score puts it comfortably above today's average and well into the upper tier historically.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Miami Marlins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 11.4 6.6% 6.7 4.2 32.9 $81.5M 27.4 24.0 1.79 1.66 — —
Z-score 0.41 -1.30 1.46 0.28 0.77 -1.39 -1.49 1.35 -1.17 -1.54 — —
tNERD 0.41 -1.30 1.46 0.28 0.77 1.39 1.49 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 9.85

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 19.0 7.1% 4.6 -4.4 40.4 $139.3M 27.7 -18.0 2.66 2.56 — —
Z-score 0.66 -0.82 0.98 -0.28 1.15 -0.73 -1.21 -1.00 0.53 0.37 — —
tNERD 0.66 -0.82 0.98 -0.28 1.15 0.73 1.21 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 8.07

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 88 12.4% 64.1% 94.7 mph 27 19.8s -27 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.67 0.84 0.11 0.22 -0.47 0.67 — — — —
pNERD 1.35 0.42 0.05 0.22 0.47 -0.34 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.98

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 91 12.2% 65.9% 94.8 mph 27 18.3s -17 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.50 0.74 0.83 0.27 -0.47 -0.57 — — — —
pNERD 1.01 0.37 0.41 0.27 0.47 0.29 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.62

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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 12:05p

Summary

Good enough info gathered. Now drafting the summary.

A dominant Luzardo start against a fringe-watchable Mets team makes this one worth flipping on, even if the standings suggest a lopsided affair. Luzardo enters as an All-Star riding a stretch where the Phillies have won his last nine starts and haven't lost with him on the mound since a 4-1 defeat to the Reds back on May 19, and against the Mets specifically he's been even better, sporting a 6-2 record with a 3.16 ERA in 12 career starts. His 11.08 pNERD is comfortably above today's average and sits near the historic 95th percentile, backed by a filthy xFIP- of 68 and a 96.7 mph heater that misses bats at an elite clip. Manaea is the lesser lefty here, but not nothing — a strong final component from unusually good luck (which suggests some regression toward better results ahead) and above-average strike-throwing give him a respectable 5.74 pNERD, and the Mets won his last start, when he allowed just three runs on six hits in seven innings against Kansas City. Team-wise these are two middling-to-scuffling lineups — the Phillies actually rank worse in batting runs than the Mets — but the 13.20 gNERD, above both today's and the historic averages, is carried almost entirely by the pitching matchup, plus a natural NL East rivalry undercurrent worth an afternoon.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -34.6 8.8% -3.9 -8.6 29.6 $374.9M 29.9 -8.0 3.32 3.05 — —
Z-score -1.10 0.82 -0.98 -0.55 0.61 1.97 0.85 -0.44 1.82 1.41 — —
tNERD -1.10 0.82 -0.98 -0.55 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.70 4.00 4.40

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -42.5 7.7% 6.1 -6.2 37.7 $309.8M 30.5 -19.0 2.92 2.69 — —
Z-score -1.36 -0.24 1.32 -0.40 1.01 1.22 1.36 -1.05 1.03 0.64 — —
tNERD -1.36 -0.24 1.32 -0.40 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.32 4.00 5.17

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 97 9.7% 65.3% 90.4 mph 34 17.1s 15 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.16 -0.42 0.58 -1.77 1.38 -1.57 — — — —
pNERD 0.32 -0.21 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.75 0.00 3.80 5.74

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 68 14.1% 64.2% 96.7 mph 28 17.3s 14 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.82 1.63 0.15 1.15 -0.21 -1.40 — — — —
pNERD 3.64 0.81 0.07 1.15 0.21 0.70 0.70 0.00 3.80 11.08

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Good, I have enough for a solid summary.

A Wrigley Field afternoon with two legitimately good arms and a Cubs team that's quietly become one of baseball's better watches. Taj Bradley brings a mid-90s heater and a tidy track record against Chicago into this one, and the numbers back it up. Twins right-hander Taj Bradley will make his 19th start of the season and ranks second on the team with 118 strikeouts in 102 2/3 innings. This will be Bradley's third career start against the Cubs, and he has been terrific in his first two appearances, limiting Chicago to three unearned runs on six hits in 12 2/3 innings, despite being 1-1 in those outings. Opposite him, Matthew Boyd is riding a hot streak that his peripherals suggest can't last — Boyd posted a 2.86 ERA over the past month despite a 4.82 xFIP and 5.59 xERA, a strong signal his numbers could soon take a turn for the worst — though his actual pNERD-relevant stuff (sharp swinging-strike and strike rates) is legit. Both pitchers grade out nearly identically here, sitting comfortably above average for pitcher NERD scores today. The Cubs' side of the ledger is what really elevates this: strong fielding and batting numbers drive Chicago's tNERD well above the Twins', while Minnesota's shaky bullpen and baserunning drag things down. Add a solid overall gNERD, above today's average, and this one's worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Minnesota Twins

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 23.4 8.4% -6.1 -17.0 0.5 $122.1M 28.9 -12.0 2.30 2.06 — —
Z-score 0.80 0.44 -1.49 -1.10 -0.85 -0.92 -0.06 -0.66 -0.17 -0.69 — —
tNERD 0.80 0.44 -1.49 -1.10 -0.85 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.79

Chicago Cubs

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 39.3 7.3% 1.0 39.4 -9.5 $246.2M 29.8 6.0 3.01 3.15 — —
Z-score 1.32 -0.62 0.15 2.57 -1.35 0.50 0.67 0.34 1.22 1.62 — —
tNERD 1.32 -0.62 0.15 2.57 -1.35 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.61 0.81 4.00 7.83

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 91 11.4% 63.0% 97.0 mph 25 19.2s -6 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.50 0.37 -0.34 1.29 -1.00 0.18 — — — —
pNERD 1.01 0.19 -0.17 1.29 1.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.02

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 88 13.2% 65.4% 92.8 mph 35 18.9s 21 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.67 1.21 0.65 -0.66 1.64 -0.07 — — — —
pNERD 1.35 0.61 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.00 0.00 3.80 7.12

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

A doubleheader nightcap with more mystery than muscle, but the team-side numbers give it some juice. Smoke from wildfires wiped out Friday's series opener, forcing Saturday's Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Guardians to make it up as a day-night doubleheader, and this is the nightcap, with Logan Allen starting the second game for Cleveland opposite a Pittsburgh arm still marked TBD — so pack your patience along with your popcorn. Both pitcher NERD scores sit at zero simply because we lack usable data on either arm, not because either is bad, so the appeal here rests almost entirely on the lineups. The Pirates' 7.60 tNERD is buoyed by strong batting and baserunning value and a shoestring payroll, while Cleveland's 7.07 leans on youth, bullpen depth, and thrifty spending despite a middling offense and lousy barrel rate. Context matters too: the Guardians lead the AL Central, while Pittsburgh is chasing a National League wild-card spot, and both clubs arrive playing solid recent baseball, per Fubo's read that both clubs are playing their best baseball heading into this stretch, and the margin between them is razor thin. A game NERD of 12.34 lands comfortably above the historical average, making it a reasonable, if unspectacular, pick.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 50.3 8.5% 6.3 -16.2 10.9 $119.1M 28.8 4.0 2.01 1.98 — —
Z-score 1.68 0.53 1.37 -1.05 -0.33 -0.96 -0.20 0.23 -0.74 -0.86 — —
tNERD 1.68 0.53 1.37 -1.05 -0.33 0.96 0.20 0.23 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.60

Cleveland Guardians

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -33.1 6.2% 5.2 8.6 28.6 $88.9M 27.6 2.0 2.16 3.14 — —
Z-score -1.05 -1.68 1.12 0.57 0.56 -1.30 -1.35 0.12 -0.44 1.60 — —
tNERD -1.05 -1.68 1.12 0.57 0.56 1.30 1.35 0.12 0.00 0.80 4.00 7.07

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

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Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves, 1:10p

Summary

Rookie right-hander Owen Murphy gets the ball for his first career MLB start, and that novelty alone makes this game worth a glance even if the underlying NERD math is merely solid. A gNERD of 11.93 sits a bit above the historical average (10.11) but below today's slate average (11.44), so treat it as a middling-to-decent option rather than a must-watch. The pitching matchup is genuinely lopsided on paper: Murphy has thrown all of two relief innings in the majors, making two relief appearances since being called up from Triple-A Gwinnett, firing three scoreless, hitless innings with three strikeouts most recently, but there's simply no track record to grade, hence his 0.00 pNERD. MacKenzie Gore, by contrast, brings a legitimate 6.43 pNERD built on mid-90s velocity and a strong strikeout profile, and he's stepping in on short rest as the Rangers face a starting pitcher shortage after Jacob deGrom had to be scratched with a mild hip strain. Atlanta's lineup carries the offensive juice here, with Atlanta's 7.06 tNERD boosted by strong bullpen and barrel-rate marks, while Texas' 5.38 tNERD is propped up almost entirely by lucky sequencing that could regress. Division stakes add a little juice too, with the Atlanta Braves holding a two-game lead in the National League East at 56-40, while the Texas Rangers sit atop the American League West at 49-48. Worth a look for the debut curiosity, not for pitching artistry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Texas Rangers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 10.4 7.8% -2.6 -5.5 26.0 $201.9M 30.3 31.0 2.01 2.08 — —
Z-score 0.37 -0.14 -0.68 -0.35 0.43 -0.01 1.17 1.74 -0.74 -0.65 — —
tNERD 0.37 -0.14 -0.68 -0.35 0.43 0.01 0.00 1.74 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.38

Atlanta Braves

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -0.7 8.9% 0.9 9.7 44.9 $249.8M 30.5 -34.0 2.36 2.36 — —
Z-score 0.01 0.92 0.12 0.64 1.37 0.54 1.36 -1.89 -0.05 -0.06 — —
tNERD 0.01 0.92 0.12 0.64 1.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.06

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 93 11.4% 63.6% 95.5 mph 27 19.7s 19 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.39 0.37 -0.11 0.60 -0.47 0.59 — — — —
pNERD 0.78 0.19 -0.05 0.60 0.47 -0.30 0.95 0.00 3.80 6.43

Owen Murphy, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Boston's operating on an 11-game winning streak, its longest since 2016, while Ian Seymour comes home to Fenway for a start that's part homecoming, part audition against the team he's quietly owned in relief. The Rays currently sit atop the AL East despite arriving in a 4-7 funk and fresh off a doubleheader sweep at Boston's hands, and Friday's losses to the Red Sox dropped them to 4-7 in their last 11 games. Seymour, a Massachusetts native making his first career start at Fenway, carries a 1-0 record with a 1.13 ERA in three career appearances against the Red Sox, and his 6.71 pNERD is comfortably above average thanks to sharp strikeout-and-strike rates. Patrick Sandoval, meanwhile, is only two starts into his return from Tommy John surgery that ended his 2024 season—too small a sample for a real pNERD, hence the flat zero. Boston's tNERD (6.59) outpaces Tampa Bay's (3.94), fitting for a lineup that's mashed lefties lately and already outscored the Rays 15-3 through the first two meetings of this four-game set. The 11.12 gNERD lands right around today's midpoint—solidly watchable, if not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 15.9 5.6% 2.6 -8.6 10.0 $106.9M 29.1 17.0 2.27 2.10 — —
Z-score 0.55 -2.26 0.52 -0.55 -0.37 -1.10 0.07 0.96 -0.23 -0.61 — —
tNERD 0.55 -2.26 0.52 -0.55 -0.37 1.10 0.00 0.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.94

Boston Red Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -25.8 7.4% 1.8 21.9 35.7 $263.6M 29.2 16.0 2.47 2.64 — —
Z-score -0.82 -0.53 0.33 1.43 0.91 0.70 0.17 0.90 0.16 0.54 — —
tNERD -0.82 -0.53 0.33 1.43 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.08 0.27 4.00 6.59

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 96 13.3% 66.7% 91.2 mph 27 18.5s 12 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.22 1.26 1.15 -1.40 -0.47 -0.41 — — — —
pNERD 0.43 0.63 0.58 0.00 0.47 0.20 0.60 0.00 3.80 6.71

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

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Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Good enough info. Now writing the summary.

A first-place surprise team steamrolling a defending champ that's come undone. The White Sox, unlikely leaders of the AL Central, arrive at Rogers Centre having won every meeting with Toronto this season, and Shane Bieber's return from elbow inflammation hasn't gone well — after missing much of the first half with right elbow inflammation, Bieber has returned for four starts, and the results have been concerning, posting a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP, with no pNERD data available to even quantify the damage. Davis Martin, on the other hand, has quietly emerged as an above-average arm (pNERD 5.70, buoyed by a strong xFIP-), and back in April he shut Toronto's offense down over six scoreless innings in a 3-0 win. The Blue Jays are reeling — currently riding a three-game losing streak with the trade deadline looming and selling starting to look likely — and their putrid barrel rate and negative batting runs drag tNERD down to 2.46, among the lower marks you'll see today. Chicago's youth, thrift, and deep bullpen give it a robust 8.73 tNERD, pushing the gNERD to 10.95 — a shade above average both historically and among today's slate, worth a look mostly for Martin's steadiness against Bieber's search for answers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 18.6 8.7% -1.2 1.4 28.7 $105.8M 27.1 -19.0 1.82 2.57 — —
Z-score 0.64 0.73 -0.36 0.10 0.56 -1.11 -1.76 -1.05 -1.11 0.39 — —
tNERD 0.64 0.73 -0.36 0.10 0.56 1.11 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.19 4.00 8.73

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -28.5 6.2% -4.5 12.9 29.8 $306.1M 30.1 -3.0 3.10 2.39 — —
Z-score -0.90 -1.68 -1.12 0.85 0.62 1.18 0.99 -0.16 1.40 0.01 — —
tNERD -0.90 -1.68 -1.12 0.85 0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 4.00 2.46

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 89 11.4% 64.4% 93.6 mph 29 18.1s -8 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.62 0.37 0.22 -0.28 0.06 -0.74 — — — —
pNERD 1.24 0.19 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.70

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels, 7:07p

Summary

Skubal is a certified must-watch, even against a team that's currently a punchline. The Tigers ace strolls into Anaheim carrying the majors' best xFIP- among starters and a swinging-strike rate that makes hitters look silly, and he'll need every bit of it against an Angels lineup that has quietly become the AL's worst home draw.

Skubal has looked strong over his last three starts heading into the break, posting a 2.25 ERA and 2.79 FIP stretching across 16 innings, recording 23 strikeouts against just three walks. His 12.40 pNERD is well above today's average and sits near the top of the historical distribution, driven by elite command and swing-and-miss stuff. Grayson Rodriguez, by contrast, is still finding his footing after beginning the season on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation and missing time with lower back tightness before returning just ahead of the All-Star break; his xFIP- is ugly and his pNERD of 2.96 reflects it, though positive luck suggests some in-season correction is plausible. Team-wise this is lopsided too — Detroit's 4.91 tNERD comfortably outpaces the Angels' 1.57, the latter dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning. The gNERD of 10.92 is right around historical average, but it's Skubal's arm, not the matchup, that makes this worth your remote.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -7.0 9.0% -1.0 -12.1 14.3 $239.2M 29.6 13.0 2.74 2.64 — —
Z-score -0.20 1.01 -0.31 -0.78 -0.16 0.42 0.58 0.74 0.69 0.54 — —
tNERD -0.20 1.01 -0.31 -0.78 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.34 0.27 4.00 4.91

Los Angeles Angels

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -14.7 8.7% -5.9 -22.4 7.0 $191.6M 28.6 -5.0 2.59 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.45 0.73 -1.45 -1.45 -0.52 -0.13 -0.39 -0.27 0.40 -0.80 — —
tNERD -0.45 0.73 -1.45 -1.45 -0.52 0.13 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.00 1.57

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 61 15.5% 68.2% 96.8 mph 29 18.2s 12 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.22 2.28 1.80 1.20 0.06 -0.65 — — — —
pNERD 4.44 1.14 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.33 0.60 0.00 3.80 12.40

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 126 8.0% 62.5% 96.3 mph 26 18.2s 51 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.50 -1.21 -0.54 0.97 -0.73 -0.65 — — — —
pNERD -2.99 -0.60 -0.27 0.97 0.73 0.33 1.00 0.00 3.80 2.96

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

Now I have enough for a solid summary.

Cardinals-Diamondbacks is a decent midday watch, powered mostly by St. Louis's roster quality and a Dustin May fastball that's still humming at nearly 97 mph. May's velocity and strong xFIP- profile give him a solid pNERD, and there's an added wrinkle: with the trade deadline two weeks out, May is looking to continue bolstering his trade value and help the Cardinals out with a win before potentially getting shipped out — a nice storyline if you like watching a guy audition in real time. On the other side, Pfaadt has allowed just three earned runs over his last three starts since getting recalled from Triple-A Reno, so he's shown some late-summer polish, though his xFIP- and modest strikeout stuff keep his pNERD closer to average. Team-wise, St. Louis's tNERD edge comes from a young, cheap roster with excellent fielding, while Arizona's offense has quietly cratered — the leading projection system sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, so some positive regression may be coming, just maybe not today. Both squads are fighting for playoff positioning, which adds stakes even if the raw gNERD of 10.89 sits almost exactly at the historical median — solidly watchable, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -9.8 7.6% 1.3 11.7 5.3 $111.2M 26.9 -14.0 2.17 2.15 — —
Z-score -0.29 -0.33 0.22 0.77 -0.61 -1.05 -1.94 -0.77 -0.43 -0.50 — —
tNERD -0.29 -0.33 0.22 0.77 -0.61 1.05 1.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.74

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -44.7 7.0% 4.1 27.3 25.6 $231.6M 30.2 -24.0 2.19 1.92 — —
Z-score -1.44 -0.91 0.86 1.78 0.41 0.33 1.08 -1.33 -0.39 -0.99 — —
tNERD -1.44 -0.91 0.86 1.78 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.70

Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 91 9.6% 65.4% 96.9 mph 28 21.4s 19 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.50 -0.47 0.64 1.24 -0.21 2.00 — — — —
pNERD 1.01 -0.23 0.32 1.24 0.21 -1.00 0.95 0.00 3.80 6.29

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 104 10.0% 65.1% 93.3 mph 27 19.4s 6 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.24 -0.28 0.50 -0.42 -0.47 0.34 — — — —
pNERD -0.48 -0.14 0.25 0.00 0.47 -0.17 0.30 0.00 3.80 4.03

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San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners, 5:08p

Summary

A decent pitching matchup between two sluggish also-rans, elevated mostly by Bryan Woo's excellent peripherals. The Giants (42-55) are fading out of the playoff race while the Mariners (48-50) aren't doing much better, and San Francisco's playoff hopes have faded, but the second half still carries plenty of intrigue as the trade deadline approaches — including Rafael Devers now anchoring their lineup. Woo posts the day's best pitching marks, backed by strong strike-throwing and a lively fastball, giving him a pNERD near 7.75, comfortably above average for today's slate. Webb isn't far behind at 5.71, and for what it's worth, Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher, which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #10 HR venue among all major league parks. Team-wise, neither club impresses — the Giants' 4.54 tNERD and Mariners' 2.93 both sit below the historic median, dragged down by shaky baserunning and defense on both sides. The overall gNERD of 10.46 lands almost exactly at the historic average, making this a fine but unspectacular watch, elevated mainly by the pitching matchup rather than anything the lineups are doing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 6.7 7.4% -6.6 -6.8 -3.0 $228.3M 29.6 34.0 3.20 3.49 — —
Z-score 0.25 -0.53 -1.61 -0.44 -1.02 0.29 0.49 1.91 1.59 2.34 — —
tNERD 0.25 -0.53 -1.61 -0.44 -1.02 0.00 0.00 1.91 0.79 1.17 4.00 4.54

Seattle Mariners

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -1.6 7.9% -3.4 -22.9 20.6 $196.7M 28.4 8.0 2.35 2.52 — —
Z-score -0.02 -0.04 -0.87 -1.48 0.16 -0.07 -0.52 0.46 -0.07 0.28 — —
tNERD -0.02 -0.04 -0.87 -1.48 0.16 0.07 0.52 0.46 0.00 0.14 4.00 2.93

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 87 8.6% 65.6% 92.3 mph 29 18.5s 7 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.73 -0.93 0.71 -0.89 0.06 -0.41 — — — —
pNERD 1.46 -0.47 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.35 0.00 3.80 5.71

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 89 11.7% 68.0% 95.8 mph 26 20.8s 18 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.62 0.51 1.69 0.73 -0.73 1.50 — — — —
pNERD 1.24 0.26 0.85 0.73 0.73 -0.75 0.90 0.00 3.80 7.75

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San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals, 1:10p

Summary

A last-place club sending out a first-time starter in six years against a team stumbling through a brutal road slump — this one's got more storyline than star power. Griffin Canning takes the ball fresh off a walk-off gut-punch loss the night before, and while his 6.47 ERA and 1-7 record look ugly, he's making his second straight start after bouncing between the rotation and a bulk-inning option, with a 3.46 ERA in his last three outings. Randy Dobnak, meanwhile, is making his first start since 2021, having been used as a bulk-inning option since being acquired from Seattle last month — pNERD has nothing on him because there's essentially no starter track record to grade. The Padres carry the entertainment value here, with San Diego's 8.90 tNERD driven by strong bullpen, fielding and baserunning marks, dwarfing Kansas City's 3.18, which is dragged down by one of the league's worst relief corps. At 9.87 gNERD, this sits a shade below the historic middle and today's average — watchable mostly for the underdog subplot, not the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -45.7 8.2% 5.9 20.8 45.2 $255.5M 29.9 -16.0 3.47 3.37 — —
Z-score -1.47 0.24 1.28 1.36 1.39 0.60 0.85 -0.89 2.12 2.09 — —
tNERD -1.47 0.24 1.28 1.36 1.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 1.04 4.00 8.90

Kansas City Royals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -16.7 8.2% 1.1 7.6 -27.0 $184.5M 29.7 14.0 2.11 2.22 — —
Z-score -0.52 0.24 0.17 0.50 -2.22 -0.21 0.62 0.79 -0.54 -0.36 — —
tNERD -0.52 0.24 0.17 0.50 -2.22 0.21 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.18

Griffin Canning, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 106 9.8% 59.0% 94.1 mph 30 19.6s 54 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.35 -0.37 -1.98 -0.05 0.32 0.51 — — — —
pNERD -0.71 -0.19 -0.99 0.00 0.00 -0.25 1.00 0.00 3.80 2.66

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

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Washington Nationals @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Good, that gave plenty. Let me write the summary.

The Nationals bring a genuinely fun offense to Sacramento, but the Athletics are a mess, and that combination makes this more watchable for one dugout than the other. Washington just dropped a 23-4 haymaker on Oakland's transplant club Friday, with Andrés Chaparro going 4-for-5 with two homers and eight RBIs, and that's part of a broader pattern — the Nationals rank near the top of the league offensively while the A's have lost ten straight and rank near the bottom in run-scoring. James Wood, who's mashed 20 of his 28 homers against right-handers, gets a favorable look at Ginn. On the mound, Ginn (pNERD 3.14) has quietly been the better story, though he's still shaking off 21 appearances in 2026, with his season numbers heavily swayed by the 8 runs he surrendered to Chicago in his last start. Littell (pNERD 0.91) has been unremarkable by the peripherals, with a rough strikeout rate weighing him down. The tNERD gap (8.96 to 3.18) is the real story here — Washington's youth, baserunning, and payroll efficiency contrast sharply with Oakland's shaky bullpen, defense, and thin roster, though the Athletics do carry some positive regression in their favor given their bad recent luck.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 47.4 9.1% 7.4 1.7 -26.7 $114.5M 27.1 -34.0 2.00 2.20 — —
Z-score 1.59 1.11 1.62 0.12 -2.21 -1.01 -1.71 -1.89 -0.75 -0.40 — —
tNERD 1.59 1.11 1.62 0.12 -2.21 1.01 1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.96

Athletics

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -4.2 8.0% -3.9 -21.4 -0.4 $135.2M 28.2 18.0 1.27 1.94 — —
Z-score -0.11 0.05 -0.98 -1.39 -0.89 -0.77 -0.71 1.02 -2.19 -0.95 — —
tNERD -0.11 0.05 -0.98 -1.39 -0.89 0.77 0.71 1.02 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.18

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 121 7.8% 65.0% 91.6 mph 30 19.1s -5 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.21 -1.30 0.46 -1.21 0.32 0.09 — — — —
pNERD -2.42 -0.65 0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.91

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 103 11.7% 61.2% 93.6 mph 27 20.1s -18 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.18 0.51 -1.11 -0.28 -0.47 0.92 — — — —
pNERD -0.37 0.26 -0.55 0.00 0.47 -0.46 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.14

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Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros, 1:10p

Summary

A middling matchup on paper, but Trevor Rogers' second-half turnaround gives it a pulse. The Orioles ride a five-game win streak into Houston, and Rogers is a big reason why: since the start of June, he has a 1.73 ERA in seven starts and hasn't given up more than three runs in any outing, slashing an ERA that started the year near 7.00. His 3.59 pNERD (aided by strong strike-throwing and decent pace) is the clear highlight here, though his xFIP- of 113 suggests his shiny recent ERA is running ahead of his skills. Across the mound, Arrighetti is having a forgettable second half — he'll look to make amends after giving up eight runs in four innings in an 8-2 loss to the Nationals on July 8 — and his 1.24 pNERD reflects below-average command and stuff. Neither offense stands out, with both clubs posting similar batting and barrel numbers but shaky baserunning. At 6.37, the gNERD sits well below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate (11.44), making this one you can skip unless you're strictly here for Rogers' bounce-back bid.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Baltimore Orioles (2.10)

Baltimore Orioles

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 14.8 8.5% -2.4 -12.1 27.2 $214.8M 29.0 -7.0 2.82 2.10 — —
Z-score 0.52 0.53 -0.64 -0.78 0.49 0.14 -0.02 -0.38 0.85 -0.61 — —
tNERD 0.52 0.53 -0.64 -0.78 0.49 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.42 0.00 4.00 4.56

Houston Astros

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat 13.8 8.5% -3.2 -4.7 2.9 $232.7M 28.9 0.0 2.17 1.99 — —
Z-score 0.48 0.53 -0.82 -0.30 -0.73 0.34 -0.16 0.01 -0.42 -0.84 — —
tNERD 0.48 0.53 -0.82 -0.30 -0.73 0.00 0.16 0.01 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.33

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 113 10.6% 67.2% 93.5 mph 28 18.0s -5 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.75 0.00 1.37 -0.33 -0.21 -0.82 — — — —
pNERD -1.51 0.00 0.69 0.00 0.21 0.41 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.59

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 115 9.8% 60.1% 92.3 mph 26 20.4s -7 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.87 -0.37 -1.56 -0.89 -0.73 1.17 — — — —
pNERD -1.74 -0.19 -0.78 0.00 0.73 -0.59 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.24

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Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Cincinnati Reds (2.11)

Cincinnati Reds

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -42.1 9.3% -0.3 -5.9 -8.9 $147.4M 28.0 16.0 2.09 2.11 — —
Z-score -1.35 1.30 -0.15 -0.38 -1.32 -0.63 -0.94 0.90 -0.59 -0.59 — —
tNERD -1.35 1.30 -0.15 -0.38 -1.32 0.63 0.94 0.90 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.58

Colorado Rockies

Batting Barrel% BaseR Fielding Bullpen Payroll Age Luck TV Radio C Total
Raw stat -39.8 6.7% -3.1 -14.0 20.8 $134.1M 29.5 9.0 1.73 1.80 — —
Z-score -1.27 -1.20 -0.80 -0.90 0.17 -0.79 0.44 0.51 -1.29 -1.25 — —
tNERD -1.27 -1.20 -0.80 -0.90 0.17 0.79 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 4.00 1.29

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 115 8.2% 61.6% 93.0 mph 24 17.1s -4 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.87 -1.12 -0.92 -0.56 -1.26 -1.57 — — — —
pNERD -1.74 -0.56 -0.46 0.00 1.26 0.78 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.09

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike% Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% C Total
Raw stat 121 7.6% 61.0% 92.3 mph 36 20.8s -21 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.21 -1.40 -1.17 -0.89 1.90 1.50 — — — —
pNERD -2.42 -0.70 -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.75 0.00 0.00 3.80 -0.66

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