MLB: What to watch on August 18, 2026

• 18 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

This one's a legitimate watch: baseball's best team hosting a solid Mariners staff, with a pitching matchup that actually lives up to the hype. Milwaukee, sitting at 77-48 atop the standings, brings a 9.30 tNERD — one of the stouter team scores you'll see — built on youth, aggressive baserunning, and a bullpen that's been quietly excellent. Seattle, by contrast, is a game under .500 and limping in on defense, with a tNERD of just 3.23 dragged down by shaky fielding, though some positive regression (a 19-run luck deficit) could be coming.

The real draw is Kyle Harrison, who's 9-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 3.35 FIP pitching at home, and whose 11.01 pNERD is comfortably above the historic 95th percentile — young, quick-working, and missing bats. Bryce Miller counters with plus velocity and a strong strike rate, giving Seattle a puncher's chance. At 15.34, the gNERD sits near the top of today's slate and well above the historic average, so if you're picking one game, this is a defensible choice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Seattle Mariners

Milwaukee Brewers

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

A crosstown rivalry game with actual stakes attached, featuring a Cubs lineup that's been on fire and a White Sox club still clinging to first place in a mediocre AL Central. The Cubs' Monday win over the Sox evened the season series and tightened their grip on the top NL wild-card spot, and it came on the strength of Pete Crow-Armstrong, who delivered four hits and two home runs against the White Sox, including a game-ending, two-run blast in the 10th inning. Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Chicago carrying a strong 6.28 pNERD, built on solid strikeout and command marks and buoyed by some bad luck that suggests better results ahead. The Sox starter is unconfirmed here, but expect a bullpen game of sorts, since lefty Bryan Hudson is reportedly starting with Erick Fedde following in relief — and Fedde has been dreadful this month. The Cubs' 9.98 tNERD, powered by top-shelf batting and fielding numbers, pushes this to a 14.93 gNERD, comfortably above today's 10.34 average and well into the upper reaches of the historical distribution.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago White Sox

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs

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Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Zack Wheeler pitching against a rebuilding Marlins lineup with real playoff stakes for Philly makes this the pick of the day, even if the Marlins' actual starter is a bit of an afterthought. Wheeler comes in 10-4 with a 2.89 ERA, and his elite xFIP- and whiff rate drive a pNERD score of 8.88 — among the best you'll find today — while in his tenure with the Phillies, Wheeler has developed into the team's ace, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in five of his six seasons with the club. On the other side, Cade Gibson is 2-0 with a 5.61 ERA, and last time these two met, Stott's three-run homer off reliever Cade Gibson helped sink Miami; there's no advanced pitch data on him yet, so his pNERD sits at zero. The Marlins actually carry the shinier team NERD number (9.43) thanks to a young, athletic roster that's baserunning and fielding its way past a mediocre lineup, and they've been quietly unlucky this year — positive regression could be coming. Philadelphia's tNERD is more pedestrian, dragged down by underwhelming batted-ball luck, but a deep bullpen and a broadcast crew that's actually pleasant to listen to nudge it up. With a gNERD of 14.46 — comfortably above the historical average and near the top of today's slate — this one's worth your remote control.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies

Cade Gibson, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Braxton Ashcraft alone makes this one worth flipping on, and the Pirates' offense gives it some teeth too. Ashcraft's nine-inning complete game where he allowed one earned run on three hits and three walks while striking out ten just days ago is the headline act here — he needed just 85 pitches to get through all nine innings, averaging less than ten pitches per inning, a feat so rare that only one other pitcher in the 2020s has matched nine innings on 85 or fewer pitches. That start capped an up-and-down season for the 26-year-old, who made his first All-Star team in his first fully healthy season as a starter after battling injuries, though he struggled a bit after the break before this gem. His pNERD of 12.09 is elite, built on a nasty xFIP-, plate-clogging strike rate, and mid-90s-plus velocity — one of the best pitching lines on the slate today. Keider Montero is the drag here, with a pedestrian 3.27 pNERD driven by shaky whiff and command marks. On the team side, Pittsburgh's above-average offense and baserunning nudge this above the daily average, while Detroit's shakier glovework and pen keep the Tigers' tNERD modest. Net-net: watch for Ashcraft, stay for whatever Pittsburgh's lineup can cobble together against Montero.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

San Diego arrives with the better roster and a red-hot bullpen, but Zac Thornton's rookie stuff makes this a legitimately interesting mismatch. The Padres carry the day's best team score, with elite marks in bullpen depth and defense, plus a fielding and baserunning profile that makes them fun to watch even when the lineup (batting runs actually below average) isn't clicking. The Mets counter with a lesser overall roster but get a boost from Thornton, a 24-year-old lefty making just his ninth big-league start; his ERA is gaudy but so are his peripherals in the other direction — an 18.9% whiff rate, 41% hard-hit rate, and 4.85 xERA suggest regression is coming, and the Padres haven't seen him at all. Robbie Ray, meanwhile, has quietly turned his season around since a rough June and is fresh off limiting the Brewers to two hits, though his command metrics (strike rate, pace) drag his NERD score down. At 10.69, this game sits almost exactly at today's average — not a must-watch, but the Padres' bullpen and Thornton's rookie unknown give it some juice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

New York Mets

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

A veteran lefty returning from injury against a hard-luck righty who can't buy a win — this one's got more subplots than the box score suggests. Carlos Rodón makes his first start since June 28 after a stint on the IL for elbow inflammation, and the Yankees badly need him to round back into form given Max Fried just landed on the same list. Rodón comes in with a 3.30 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in nine starts, striking out 52, after missing the first month of the season following offseason elbow surgery. On the other side, Shane Baz has gone more than two months without a victory, and Baltimore has lost the last five games he has pitched, going 0-6 over his past 10 starts despite a respectable 3.92 ERA in that span — a pitcher clearly getting jobbed by his own bullpen and offense. The Yankees sit atop the AL wild-card race while Baltimore is scrapping to stay relevant, adding some stakes. NERD-wise, this is a middling but perfectly watchable ticket: the 10.68 gNERD sits right around the historical median, buoyed by New York's above-average tNERD (barrel rate and baserunning both stand out) and two pitchers who grade out as unspectacular but not offensive. Nothing to clear your schedule for, but nothing to skip either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

A trade-deadline reunion tucked into a middling series finale, with more juice on the Twins' side of the mound than the standings suggest. Atlanta arrives having been one of the best teams in the NL since the All-Star break, holding a slight lead over the Dodgers for the 2nd-best record in the NL, though they dropped the series opener Monday when Martín Pérez, who had pitched 18 straight scoreless innings, surrendered nine hits and two walks in five innings. Tyler Mahle, a trade-deadline acquisition from San Francisco, brings a modest 5.45 pNERD buoyed almost entirely by good fortune - his Luck component is the largest lever on his score, meaning positive regression could be coming, but there's not much swing-and-miss to get excited about. Opposite him, Zebby Matthews is the more interesting arm: he's making his third start after being recalled, with Joe Ryan on the sideline due to a mild left glute strain making him more important to the team as Minnesota needs him to step up. His 95 mph heat and quick pace nudge his pNERD to 6.12, tops in this game. Team-wise, Atlanta's bullpen and barrel rate carry them to a solid tNERD while Minnesota lags on baserunning and fielding. Overall gNERD of 9.94 sits a shade below the historical median - watchable, not urgent.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Minnesota Twins

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

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Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

A rookie southpaw making his second big-league start against a journeyman having a quietly solid year — this is more about watching development than watching stars. Jackson Kent, one of Washington's top pitching prospects, is making just his second career start after a debut where he gave up three runs on three hits over four innings while striking out six and walking five. His manager noted he'll probably get some better command, but it was good to see the swing-and-miss he was able to get — the kind of small-sample intrigue that comes with pNERD scores of zero (no data yet). Across the mound, Cal Quantrill has been filling in as a starter after Nathan Eovaldi went on the injured list, giving up one run on four hits over five innings in his last outing, though his underlying xFIP suggests he's running better than his stuff. The Nationals' offense is the real draw here — elite tNERD (9.13) built on strong batting and baserunning marks, and a young roster, easily outclassing Texas's more middling lineup. But Washington's bullpen is a well-documented mess, dragging the score down. Combined, a 9.86 gNERD lands a tick below the historical and today's averages — watchable if you like scouting reports more than marquee names.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Texas Rangers

Jackson Kent, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers

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San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

A middling matchup between two teams heading nowhere fast, but Foster Griffin's steady lefty command gives Cleveland fans something to actually root for while the Giants remain the Giants. San Francisco (51-73) is deep in a lost season, sporting a road record that would make even the most patient fan wince, while Cleveland (60-65) sits fourth in the AL Central but has quietly built a younger, cheaper roster that grades out well here—its 7.41 tNERD is comfortably above the historic median. Griffin has been Cleveland's steadiest arm, and in his last outing he gave up one earned run and allowed four hits in five innings against Detroit, backing a 5.72 pNERD built on strong xFIP- and strike-throwing. Whisenhunt, by contrast, is a 25-year-old still finding his footing—he went 5 2/3 innings against Houston in his last start, and has a 6.11 ERA with 7.1 strikeouts per nine this season—and his 2.40 pNERD reflects real command concerns, not just bad luck. At 9.78, tonight's gNERD sits below the historic average and near the middle of today's slate—watchable if you like Cleveland's contact-limiting bullpen, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Cleveland Guardians

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Ranger Suárez's cutter has quietly been one of the better free-agent buys of the offseason, and if you missed Boston's 11-1 laugher on Monday, tonight's Kelly-Suárez pairing is the actual pitching matchup worth your remote. Suárez, in his first year after leaving Philadelphia, carries the best pNERD score in this game by a wide margin and it shows: his xFIP- sits at 80, well below league average, and he's working with a snappy 17.7-second pace that keeps games moving. He's coming off a solid five-inning, one-run outing against Toronto, continuing to shake off the effects of an earlier injury. Merrill Kelly, by contrast, is a tougher watch — he's put up an ERA north of 5.00 across 22 starts, and last time out allowed 6 runs in 5 innings, with his xFIP- actually working against him in the pNERD math. Boston's bullpen (tNERD-boosting at a robust 58.6 runs above replacement) and modest positive luck give the Red Sox a slight offensive-context edge, while Arizona's tNERD gets a lift from strong fielding and baserunning despite a punchless barrel rate. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 9.71 — a shade below the historical average and below today's average of 10.34 — meaning this is a watchable-if-not-essential game, mostly on the strength of Suárez's arm rather than any real drama between two middling ballclubs jockeying for October relevance.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Boston Red Sox

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, 3:40p

Summary

The Rays are cruising in the AL East and Toronto is trying to stay relevant, so this is more "measuring stick" than marquee matchup, but there's enough here to hold your attention. Tampa Bay has won 12 of its last 15 and sits comfortably atop the AL East, riding an offense that's been hitting the ball hard — 16 home runs over the past 10 games, with 31 extra-base hits and a .467 slugging mark. Toronto, meanwhile, is stuck at 61-65 and was shut out 7-0 by Boston recently and managed just three hits in a loss to New York — the feast-or-famine offense reflected in a tNERD score barely above replacement level (2.18). José Soriano brings real stuff to the mound, his 96.8 mph heat and strong swinging-strike rate pushing his pNERD to 7.23, comfortably above average. Nick Martinez has been excellent by results (2.74 ERA), but his xFIP- of 109 suggests he's outperforming his peripherals, so don't expect vintage stuff. At 9.38, this gNERD lands a bit below the historical and today's averages — solid, not standout.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

I have enough information from the initial searches to write the summary now.

A middling matchup between two clubs jockeying for NL Central relevance, with pitching that won't make anyone forget about strikeouts. The Cardinals arrive having played their best baseball in weeks, while the Reds are scuffling and searching for answers, which about sums up the September stakes at play in a season where both sit a few games from .500.

St. Louis has been playing its best baseball in weeks, and Cincinnati needs to find an answer fast. That storyline is really the whole ballgame here, with the Cardinals riding recent momentum into Great American Ball Park while the Reds try to snap out of it, and Reds are 4-0 in Abbott's last 4 starts as a home favorite, so home cooking has at least been kind to him lately even if the underlying numbers say otherwise.

The gNERD here is 8.97, below both the historic median (10.80) and today's slate average (10.34), so this isn't the day's marquee attraction. Kyle Leahy is the more watchable arm of the two, with a strong xFIP- putting his pNERD at 5.23, but Andrew Abbott's 116 xFIP- drags his pNERD down to 2.06 — a rough peripheral profile that his recent home success has been papering over. On the team side, St. Louis's youth and glovework buoy its 6.11 tNERD, while Cincinnati's punchless offense caps its ceiling despite a modest positive-luck bump that suggests some correction could be coming. Fine background baseball, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Athletics @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Two rebuilding also-rans meet in Kansas City, and while the standings don't lie, there's enough young talent here to make it watchable rather than depressing. Kansas City sits 15 games back in the AL Central and Oakland 13.5 back in the West, so this is a scouting look rather than a pennant race, but Bobby Witt Jr. remains the engine for Kansas City, and Jac Caglianone has been a force in the middle of the order, while Oakland's Zack Gelof is hitting .276 with 14 home runs and Jeff McNeil has quietly put together a solid season. Jack Perkins gives Oakland a real reason to tune in — a 6.33 pNERD built on mid-90s velocity, a hearty whiff rate, and youth, with the numbers suggesting some positive regression is even in store. His counterpart, reportedly Daniel Lynch IV, arrives as a total mystery on our sheet, no data to speak of. With gNERD sitting at 8.10 — below today's 10.34 average and comfortably below the historic median — this one leans on individual performances rather than aggregate juice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Athletics

Kansas City Royals

Jack Perkins, Athletics

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Los Angeles at Coors Field with a lot on the line beats Los Angeles at Coors Field with nothing on the line, but this one's closer to the latter, at least on paper. The Dodgers are fighting to secure a first-round bye, having dropped three of four to the Milwaukee Brewers at home, putting them on the cusp of missing out on the top-two seed, but the Rockies are a last-place club playing out the string, and the tNERD gap (8.48 to 1.15) reflects that gulf pretty accurately — LA's power and payroll against Colorado's league-worst barrel rate and batting runs. The pitching matchup doesn't add much shine: Eric Lauer has been a pleasant surprise since the Dodgers have lost only one of the 11 games he's pitched since he was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays, but his peripherals (a bloated xFIP-) don't back that up, and history isn't on his side either — he's 1-6 with a 10.43 ERA in eight career starts at Coors Field. Feltner isn't inspiring much more confidence, having allowed 22 runs in 23 2/3 innings over his last five starts, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Add it up and you get a gNERD comfortably below both the historical and today's averages — watchable if you're bored, skippable if you're not.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies

Eric Lauer, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Two last-place-adjacent-ish clubs (well, one last-place and one fighting for a division title with little urgency against this opponent) meet in a game whose gNERD score sits near the bottom of today's slate, and the box score reasons why are not hard to find. This is a rebuild-year Angels team, and the numbers back it up: Los Angeles is 49-76 overall and 20-40 in road games, dragging their tNERD to a paltry 0.72 thanks to weak marks in batting, baserunning, and fielding. Houston's 3.29 tNERD isn't inspiring either, but at least the Astros are fresh off a 3-3 week with a 2-1 series win on the road over the Giants and a 1-2 series loss at home against the Mariners, and Yordan Alvarez remains a threat worth watching. On the mound, rookie George Klassen has been wildly unpredictable — the rookie has made four major league starts with a 1-1 record and a 5.52 ERA, and his WHIP is an extremely high 2.114 in 14.2 innings — while Cristian Javier, still working back from injury, has been similarly rough, with Houston losing his last five starts, and in August he has a 5.73 ERA in two starts with only two strikeouts each time. Neither pitcher grades out well by NERD's own numbers, and there's little reason to bump this one up your must-watch list today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

George Klassen, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

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  MLB: What to watch on August 17, 2026