MLB: What to watch on September 18, 2026

• 18 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

This one's got real playoff stakes and one of the better pitching matchups on the board today, making it an easy pick for tonight's watchlist. San Diego enters with a real postseason push, and Manny Machado has 28 home runs and Fernando Tatis Jr. has 170 hits, 91 runs, and 35 stolen bases, with Petco Park a fortress at 46-29 at home. Miami isn't just playing out the string either — 18 of their final 23 games are against clubs ahead of them in the standings, so there's spoiler drama in play. The Padres' 10.67 tNERD (among the day's best) is built on a stacked bullpen and strong glovework, while Miami's 9.05 mark leans on speed and a young, cheap roster overperforming its Pythagorean expectations — that positive luck score hints they've actually been unlucky given their skill level. On the mound, Nick Pivetta's xFIP- of 79 is quietly excellent, buoying his 6.91 pNERD, while Tyler Phillips brings solid velocity (95.7 mph) but a more middling profile at 4.76. Combined gNERD of 15.70 sits near the top of today's slate and well above the historical average — worth your evening.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Chase Burns is throwing gas and mowing down hitters, so despite two sub-.500 also-rans, this one has real theater to it. The Cubs' offense and defense are elite even in a lost-cause series, while Reds rookie flamethrower Chase Burns gives the game a top-shelf arm worth tuning in for.

Chicago is fighting for the top Wild Card spot and enters having taken their second consecutive series by winning two of three from the first-place Braves, with the offense scoring 15 total runs in the two wins. Their tNERD of 10.34 is buoyed by outstanding batting and fielding runs, though a shaky bullpen drags it down. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is playing out the string at 71-82, and has dropped nine of its last ten — grim, except that Elly De La Cruz brings a different kind of threat, with 94 runs scored and 26 stolen bases, giving the Reds' offense enough thump to boost their tNERD via barrel rate and a young, cheap roster.

The pitching matchup tilts sharply toward Burns, a 23-year-old with 97.7 mph heat and elite swinging-strike rates, posting the highest pNERD of the pairing at 10.38 against Holmes' more pedestrian 4.93. Burns is riding a dominant campaign into what's being called his penultimate start of 2026, in a shortened outing piggybacked by lefty Brandon Williamson — worth watching before the workload cap kicks in. With a 15.25 gNERD, this one lands near the top of today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

A near-must-watch matchup buried in a meaningless series between two teams playing out the string, elevated almost entirely by a genuinely excellent starting pitching duel. Cade Cavalli has quietly turned into one of the better arms in baseball this year, backing an xFIP- of 75 with mid-to-upper-90s velocity and an ability to work deep into games — Cavalli is not only posting elite rate stats, but he is pitching deep into games, with eighteen of his 31 starts going at least six innings. Kyle Leahy, on the other side, is having a breakout of his own since mid-June, running a 2.15 ERA and 2.93 xFIP, though St. Louis has him on a short leash — he hasn't thrown five innings since August 18, and is already up to 135 innings after just 88 last year. Don't expect either bullpen to protect a lead gracefully; Washington set an MLB record with its 38th blown save on September 9, with a bullpen ERA of 5.09. The 14.03 gNERD comfortably clears the historic average and today's slate, so watch the starters and brace for late-inning chaos.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Two lefties, a division race, and a legit stolen-base/batting-title chase make this one worth the click. The Rays have clinched their playoff spot and, having won six straight, are chasing the AL East crown with a comfortable division lead, while Boston is scrapping for playoff positioning — so there's stakes on both sides even if the standings gap is wide. The Rays have won six straight games, already clinched a postseason berth, and currently hold a five-game lead over the Yankees atop the AL East. Watch, too, for Tampa Bay's Chandler Simpson, who boosted his average to .311 with two more stolen bases, giving him 44 on the season as he tries to become just the third player in 26 years to lead the AL in both average and steals.

On the mound, Ian Seymour is the story: his 9.08 pNERD is comfortably above today's average, built on strong strikeout stuff and a favorable xFIP-, and he's fresh off a start where he allowed just two runs on four hits and struck out 10 in six innings to beat the Astros last time out. Ranger Suarez counters with a solid if unspectacular 5.63 pNERD, riding a run of back-to-back strong outings, having allowed just one run over 14 innings in wins over the Royals and Orioles. Add in a well above-average Red Sox bullpen and a strong Rays lineup, and this 13.10 gNERD comfortably clears the historical midpoint — a solidly watchable pitchers' duel with playoff-race texture attached.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:15p

Summary

Tyler Glasnow is worth tuning in for even if the rest of this game isn't, and the Dodgers' September home surge gives it extra juice. Glasnow's peripherals continue to outpace his actual results — his 4.91 ERA since rejoining the rotation in April is misleading, as his 2.37 FIP and 21.5% K-BB% are strong indicators that immediate improvement is in store — and that gap shows up in his strong 8.68 pNERD, built on excellent xFIP-, a well-above-average swinging-strike rate, and mid-90s velocity. The Dodgers themselves rank near the top of tonight's slate at 8.09 tNERD, riding a lineup with real thump (their batting runs and barrel rate both grade out well above average) and seven consecutive home wins to boot. On the other side, Cesar Perdomo brings essentially no track record worth trusting — he was bombed for five runs on 10 hits and two walks against the Padres last time out — and San Francisco's thin tNERD (3.78) reflects a roster that's shaky on the bases and in the field, though a modest late-season batting uptick (a 110 wRC+ in September) keeps them from being total pushovers. The 12.78 gNERD lands comfortably above the historical median, mostly on Glasnow's arm and LA's lineup — worth watching for the Dodgers' side of the ledger even if the Giants are along for the ride.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Cesar Perdomo, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Paul Skenes takes the mound with a golden opportunity to remind everyone why he's still the most electric arm in baseball, even in a season that's been bumpier than his rookie campaign. After a stretch that had scouts and beat writers chattering about "Skenes' form, velocity returns in Pirates' win" following a rough patch, his surface-level 3.78 ERA badly undersells him — his xFIP sits at an elite 81, and his 96.9 mph heater and knee-buckling swinging-strike rate still play like a true ace, good for a 9.57 pNERD, comfortably above today's average. Across the diamond, Randy Dobnak offers a stark contrast: a soft-tossing sinkerballer with modest strikeout stuff and a 4.07 pNERD, making this as much a study in pitching philosophy as a competitive matchup. The Pirates' tNERD (7.02) benefits from a lively bullpen and solid baserunning, while Kansas City's 4.11 mark is dragged down by a bullpen that's been genuinely dreadful this year. With a gNERD of 12.39 — comfortably above the historical and today's averages — this game is watchable chiefly for one man's arm, not the standings, since neither club is playing meaningful September baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

A decent late-September game with real stakes for both sides, even if neither team is thrilled about how it got here. The Diamondbacks are fading fast—Arizona's postseason window is narrowing fast, sitting 13 games back and having dropped two consecutive games—while the Yankees are still clawing at their own target, five games back themselves and unable to afford slip-ups on the road. That gives the game more juice than the raw NERD numbers alone would suggest, with a 12.11 gNERD landing comfortably above the historical average and right around today's slate's midpoint. Gerrit Cole is the headliner here: at 35 he's still humming it in at 96.9 mph with plus strike-throwing, and his 7.31 pNERD (strong xFIP- of 89) is well above both historical and today's median marks. Eduardo Rodriguez is the JV act by comparison—3.62 pNERD, average stuff, and luck numbers suggesting he's been getting hit harder than his results show. On the offense side, the Yankees' tNERD (7.61) is buoyed by an excellent barrel rate, while Arizona's fielding and baserunning are legitimately plus, even if the lineup isn't scaring anyone. Watch for Ketel Marte, the notable bright spot in an otherwise scuffling Arizona attack.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Arizona Diamondbacks

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

A game defined by two rookies you've probably never heard of, but one of them—Sandlin—might be worth learning. The White Sox's 25-year-old righty has quietly become interesting, and his last outing was his best: 5.2 shutout innings against St. Louis on September 13 with five strikeouts and no walks. His 7.44 pNERD is buoyed by mid-90s velocity and a tidy xFIP-, plus positive luck suggesting his 5.64 ERA has more room to drop than rise. Detroit counters with Andrew Sears, a rookie lefty with no NERD data on file—appropriate, since the pitching matchup pairs two first-year arms with short résumés. The tNERD gap favors Chicago (8.18 to Detroit's 3.46), driven largely by the White Sox's young, cheap roster—exactly the kind of scrappy-upstart profile that makes for fun late-season baseball. Detroit arrives banged up on the mound, and Detroit had won six consecutive games before Wednesday's loss to Toronto, so there's a bit of "which version shows up" intrigue. At a 12.04 gNERD, it's a touch above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate—not essential, but not a waste of a remote either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Andrew Sears, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

David Sandlin, Chicago White Sox

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Milwaukee's postseason-bound juggernaut rolling into Camden Yards against a fading Baltimore club gives this one a decent floor, even if neither starter is going to make anyone forget about aces. The Brewers (95-58, running away with the NL Central) bring by far the better roster, with a top-shelf bullpen, elite team speed, and a lineup carried by Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers, and it shows in the 9.82 tNERD that's comfortably above average. Dustin May, an oft-traded reclamation project now on his third team of the year, is coming off one of his best starts yet, going six scoreless frames and allowing just two hits and a walk, striking out six in Milwaukee's 20-0 blowout victory over the Reds, and his mid-90s velocity and strong xFIP underpin a solid 6.03 pNERD, though his shaky control of the strike zone and tendency to work slowly work against him. Cade Povich, fresh off a demotion-and-recall shuffle, gives Baltimore innings but not much swing-and-miss, and his 2.45 pNERD reflects it. Baltimore's own lineup is banged up, missing several regulars, which caps the Orioles' tNERD at a middling 5.64. Add it up and you get a 11.97 gNERD — a touch above the historical average, and roughly in line with today's slate, making this a reasonable, if unspectacular, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Baltimore Orioles

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Both teams sit at 76-77-ish with real Wild Card stakes attached, which gives this game a bit of playoff-race juice you wouldn't otherwise expect from a Blue Jays-Rangers Friday nightcap. Dylan Cease is having his best season in years — he carries an 11-5 mark, a strikeout total that ranks second in MLB, and he's been dominant lately, going 4-0 with a sharp WHIP over his last seven starts. His pNERD of 9.17 (well above the day's 6.21 average and near the top of the historical distribution) reflects a filthy strikeout rate, plus-plus velocity, and an xFIP- in the 60s that make him one of the more watchable arms on the slate. Kumar Rocker, on the other side, has scuffled to a 5-11 record and inflated WHIP, and his 4.32 pNERD is closer to league average — his age gives him a bit of unrealized-upside shine, but the underlying strike-throwing numbers are shaky. Team-wise, Texas's tNERD (5.66) edges Toronto's (3.83), buoyed largely by a hefty "underperforming their skill" luck figure that suggests better results might be coming, while Toronto's putrid barrel rate drags things down. Add in that Texas has already swept this season series, and you've got a gNERD of 11.49 — a shade above the historical average, anchored almost entirely by Cease's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Texas Rangers

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 4:15p

Summary

A late-September divisional game with actual stakes on one side of the field and pride on the other — the Phillies are scrapping for a wild-card spot while the Mets are just trying to be professionally annoying. The Phillies come in four games back in the NL East and occupying a wild card position alongside the Cubs and Padres, where a stumble against a last-place opponent could cost ground with so few games remaining. The Mets, despite a five-game losing streak, still get a mild tNERD edge (5.37 vs 4.72) thanks to better barrel rates and a notably strong broadcast crew rating on both TV and radio. Neither team's bats are impressing anyone — both Philly and New York post negative batting-runs marks — but both bullpens are quietly solid, which should keep things competitive into the late innings.

Pitching-wise, we're flying blind: Philadelphia's starter is still TBD, and Mets righty Zac Thornton has no NERD data on file, though he's carrying a 3.44 ERA into the start. With both pNERD scores sitting at zero, this game's 10.04 gNERD lands almost exactly at today's slate average of 11.60 — not a must-watch, but the standings drama and a five-game Mets skid give it a pulse. The Phillies lead the season series, having won five of the nine meetings between these clubs, so there's a little history for the taking.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Two last-place teams playing out the string, but there's just enough velocity and prospect intrigue here to make it watchable if you've got nothing else on. The Twins and Angels are both buried in their divisions, yet the pitching matchup features two hard-throwing arms who've been getting unlucky, and Minnesota's outfield now includes actual prospects worth watching.

The Angels (59-94) walked off Minnesota in extras Thursday on a tying single from Mike Trout and a winning hit from Wade Meckler in the 10th, and they've now taken the first two meetings of a five-game set that's otherwise low-stakes given Minnesota's 70-78 record. Twins call-ups Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodríguez give the offense some juice — Jenkins hit a two-out, two-run homer in the ninth Thursday — which helps offset the loss of Byron Buxton. On the mound, Connor Prielipp (pNERD 7.43) sits mid-90s with strikeout stuff and a much better xFIP- than his 5.24 ERA suggests, while Grayson Rodriguez — acquired from Baltimore for Taylor Ward — throws even harder (96.2 mph) with similarly rough surface numbers masking better underlying stuff. Team NERDs are ugly on both sides (Angels 0.82, Twins 3.02), pulling the gNERD to 8.59, below the day's 11.60 average — tune in for the arms, not the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Minnesota Twins

Los Angeles Angels

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

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Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

Two teams playing out the string with little at stake, but a well-tuned pitcher and Coors Field chaos give this one a pulse. Seattle sits at 71-82 and eliminated from meaningful contention, while the Rockies are deeper in the hole at 56-97, having dropped nine of their last ten, though Coors Field remains one of the most unpredictable environments in the sport. Bryan Woo is the reason to tune in: his 7.81 pNERD is comfortably above average for today's slate, built on plus velocity, strong strike-throwing, and a tidy xFIP-. He's been reliable lately too — Woo took the mound against the Athletics in his last outing, surrendering zero earned runs. Colorado's counterpart is still unsettled between Feltner and Hughes, both replacement-level arms, hence the 0.00 pNERD placeholder. Offensively, Randy Arozarena has been Seattle's offensive engine with 25 home runs, 75 RBI, and 103 runs, while Julio Rodríguez adds pop and speed, and Hunter Goodman has quietly put together 38 home runs and 81 RBI for a punchless Rockies lineup. Both tNERDs are middling-to-low, so the 8.39 gNERD lands below today's 11.60 average — watchable for Woo and altitude-fueled chaos, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Colorado Rockies

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

A late-September clash between a division leader chasing October and a .500 club playing out the string, with a genuinely interesting pitching contrast to boot. The Braves (89-64) are running away with the NL East, and Tyler Mahle—the deadline pickup from San Francisco—has been quietly excellent since the trade, posting a 2.75 xERA across his last two starts with pinpoint command while holding opponents to 0.69 HR/9, which pairs nicely with a Braves lineup that has a 115 wRC+ in their previous seven contests. His 5.49 pNERD reflects a solid xFIP- and a favorable few weeks, making him the best reason to tune in. Across the mound, Peter Lambert is a modest 2.86 pNERD arm with a slower pace and shakier peripherals, though he's been serviceable enough for a fading Astros club that's fielded and baserun its way into a below-average tNERD of 2.95. Atlanta's 5.11 tNERD is buoyed by strong bullpen work and barrel-rate contact management, offsetting some batting-runs bad luck. The overall gNERD of 8.20 sits below the historic median (10.80) and well under today's slate average (11.60), so treat this as a fine background game rather than appointment viewing—decent pitching, mediocre offense-versus-defense drama, nothing more.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Houston Astros

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

A's-Guardians as the low-stakes undercard on a night with several juicier options, though Cleveland's playoff push gives it a pulse. The Guardians just retook first place in the AL Central and are wrapping up their final home series of the year, while the A's arrive at 61-92, losers of three straight including a 1-10 blowout, and reportedly may lean on a bullpen game after Gage Jump's season-ending injury. Mason Barnett, freshly recalled from Triple-A after a 2 2/3-inning disaster in August, brings a woeful 125 xFIP- and more walks than you'd like, translating to a pNERD of just 1.37. Daniel Espino is the more interesting story - a former top prospect finally healthy after multiple shoulder surgeries, working as an opener with a tiny 12.1-inning sample and strong strikeout numbers, but too little data to generate a pNERD score at all. Cleveland's tNERD (6.73) is buoyed by youth, payroll efficiency, and bullpen depth, while Oakland's 2.62 reflects shaky fielding and baserunning. The 7.86 gNERD sits below both the historical average and today's slate average, making this one skippable unless you're specifically scouting Espino's stuff.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Athletics

Cleveland Guardians

Mason Barnett, Athletics

Daniel Espino, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

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