MLB: What to watch on October 1, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0 | 5:00p | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.4 | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | Aaron Nola | 5.4 | Ray Kerr | No data |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves, 5:00p
Summary
This is win-or-go-home baseball, and that alone should outrank any NERD formula. Game 3 of the Phillies-Braves Wild Card Series decides who keeps playing in October, and that context does a lot of heavy lifting here since the underlying numbers are merely middle-of-the-pack.
Aaron Nola takes the ball for Philadelphia after a rough-looking surface season (7-12, 4.67 ERA), but his xFIP- and positive luck score suggest he's been better than that record indicates, and a win-or-go-home start is exactly the stage where "due for better results" gets tested. Atlanta, meanwhile, is reportedly turning to Ray Kerr, who carries a 0.00 pNERD simply because we have no reliable statistical read on him — an opener-type wildcard in the sport's most pressure-packed format. Both offenses were pedestrian all year neither offense was a force this season, as Atlanta averaged 4.58 runs a game and Philadelphia 4.40, which tracks with modest tNERD marks for both clubs. The gNERD of 9.98 sits near the historical middle, but elimination-game stakes make this appointment viewing regardless.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -60.5 | 7.1% | 8.1 | -9.5 | 53.0 | $309.8M | 30.5 | -21.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.41 | -0.61 | 1.25 | -0.37 | 0.74 | 1.22 | 1.36 | -0.91 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.41 | -0.61 | 1.25 | -0.37 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 4.44 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.7 | 8.6% | -3.1 | 17.5 | 45.9 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -35.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.54 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.53 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.54 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.17 |
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 11.6% | 63.7% | 92.0 mph | 33 | 20.7s | 16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.59 | 0.50 | -0.04 | -0.96 | 1.18 | 1.31 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.17 | 0.25 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.65 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.35 |
Ray Kerr, Atlanta Braves
No detailed stats available
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MLB: What to watch on September 30, 2026