MLB: What to watch on October 4, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.6 | 1:00p | San Diego Padres | 10.9 | Milwaukee Brewers | 10.1 | Michael King | 3.6 | Logan Henderson | 8.6 |
| 14.1 | 5:00p | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.8 | TBD | No data | Blake Snell | 9.2 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, 1:00p
Summary
Good, that gave me plenty. This is NLDS Game 2, Brewers lead the series 1-0.
This is October baseball at its best: a 1-0 NLDS series hanging in the balance, with the Brewers' electric young rotation arm squaring off against a Padres lineup that just steamrolled through a Wild Card sweep. Milwaukee enters having gone 103-59, three games better than anyone else in the majors, while San Diego arrives brimming with confidence after breezing through a Wild Card sweep of the Cubs, getting production up and down the order and off the bench. The Brewers took Game 1, and the Padres are looking to even things up and keep alive their hopes of punching its ticket to the NLCS for the first time since 2022.
On the mound, Logan Henderson is the real draw — his pNERD of 8.64 sits comfortably above the field today, built on a sharp xFIP- and plenty of swing-and-miss, backing up a 11-3 record with a 2.47 ERA and 3.32 FIP season. Michael King, by contrast, grades out far more pedestrian (pNERD 3.55) after a 12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP year that doesn't match his usual stuff. Both teams rank near the top of today's slate and near the historic 95th percentile for tNERD, giving this game a 16.55 gNERD — comfortably above both the historic average of 10.81 and today's slate average of 15.33.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.6 | 8.0% | 6.3 | 30.5 | 85.8 | $255.5M | 29.9 | -6.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.60 | 0.85 | -0.26 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 10.86 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 55.2 | 7.3% | 7.9 | 8.0 | 66.0 | $139.3M | 27.7 | -28.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.37 | -0.40 | 1.20 | 0.31 | 1.18 | -0.73 | -1.21 | -1.22 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.37 | -0.40 | 1.20 | 0.31 | 1.18 | 0.73 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 10.05 |
Michael King, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 103 | 10.2% | 63.2% | 93.7 mph | 31 | 18.9s | -23 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | -0.15 | -0.22 | -0.21 | 0.66 | -0.17 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 78 | 12.4% | 68.3% | 93.2 mph | 24 | 20.5s | -18 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.43 | 0.88 | 1.90 | -0.43 | -1.16 | 1.14 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.86 | 0.44 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 1.16 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.64 |
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 5:00p
Summary
This is Game 2 of the NLDS, and the Dodgers have a near-unhittable Blake Snell on the mound while Atlanta still hasn't even named a starter — that imbalance alone tells you plenty about where this series is heading. Los Angeles took Game 1 behind Tarik Skubal's three-homer outburst, and now hands the ball to Snell, who went 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA over 42.2 innings down the stretch; his 9.21 pNERD (well above today's 7.14 average and comfortably into the 95th percentile historically) is built on elite whiff and chase numbers and a sub-75 xFIP-, not just shiny run prevention. Atlanta's mystery starter carries a 0.00 pNERD simply because we have no data to grade him, which, with Chris Sale already used in relief and several Braves starters banged up, isn't a great sign for competitive balance. On the team side, the Dodgers' 8.84 tNERD dwarfs Atlanta's 5.17, fueled by elite batting runs, barrel rate, and a dominant bullpen — though note L.A.'s offense has actually been a bit lucky, so some regression wouldn't shock. At 14.12, the gNERD sits a tick below today's slate average but still well above the historical norm — watchable mostly because of Snell and the stakes, less so because of competitive doubt.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.7 | 8.6% | -3.0 | 17.5 | 45.9 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -35.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.54 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.53 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.54 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.17 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80.2 | 8.6% | -5.6 | 6.4 | 73.2 | $413.5M | 30.0 | 23.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.97 | 0.96 | -0.96 | 0.25 | 1.43 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.97 | 0.96 | -0.96 | 0.25 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 8.84 |
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 73 | 15.8% | 64.7% | 96.1 mph | 33 | 19.9s | -28 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.73 | 2.45 | 0.39 | 0.86 | 1.18 | 0.65 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.46 | 1.23 | 0.19 | 0.86 | 0.00 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.21 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 3, 2026