MLB: What to watch on October 7, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.2 | 7:00p | Milwaukee Brewers | 10.1 | San Diego Padres | 10.9 | TBD | No data | Walker Buehler | 4.5 |
| 14.6 | 3:00p | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.8 | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | Tyler Glasnow | 9.7 | Tyler Mahle | 5.4 |
| 13.3 | 1:00p | Cleveland Guardians | 7.2 | Chicago White Sox | 8.6 | Daniel Espino | No data | Sean Newcomb | 5.7 |
| 9.7 | 5:00p | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.5 | New York Yankees | 7.1 | Nick Martinez | 3.3 | Max Fried | 4.5 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 7:00p
Summary
This is win-or-go-home baseball for San Diego, and the NERD math says it should be worth your three hours. Milwaukee leads the NLDS 2-1 after winning the first two games at home — including a walk-off job by Jhoan Chourio in Game 2 — before the Padres clawed back behind a Jake Cronenworth homer and two hits, with Michael King having struck out 14 this postseason in the series. Now it's elimination time at Petco, and Walker Buehler gets the ball for the Padres while Milwaukee has not yet announced its Game 4 starter — a mystery-bullpen approach that adds its own suspense even before a pitch is thrown. Both tNERD scores sit near the top of today's slate (Padres 10.86, Brewers 10.06), fueled by elite bullpens on both sides and San Diego's standout defense. Buehler's pNERD of 4.54 is unspectacular but solid, with his luck score suggesting he's actually pitched a bit better than his results. With a 103-win Brewers club trying to close out a Padres team desperate to survive, this one has the stakes to match the numbers.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 55.2 | 7.3% | 7.9 | 8.3 | 66.0 | $139.3M | 27.7 | -28.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.37 | -0.40 | 1.20 | 0.32 | 1.18 | -0.73 | -1.21 | -1.22 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.37 | -0.40 | 1.20 | 0.32 | 1.18 | 0.73 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 10.06 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.6 | 8.0% | 6.3 | 30.4 | 85.8 | $255.5M | 29.9 | -6.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.60 | 0.85 | -0.26 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 10.86 |
Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 100 | 8.1% | 62.6% | 94.2 mph | 31 | 17.7s | 15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.11 | -1.12 | -0.51 | 0.01 | 0.66 | -1.16 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.21 | -0.56 | -0.25 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.54 |
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves, 3:00p
Summary
Now I have great material: this is NLDS Game 4, Dodgers leading 2-1, elimination game for Atlanta.
Elimination baseball, with the Dodgers one win from the NLCS and the Braves fighting to survive another day — this one has drama baked in. Tyler Glasnow draws the ball for Los Angeles carrying the highest pNERD on the board, and his 5-2 record with a 3.53 ERA in 13 regular-season games undersells a filthy strikeout arm backed by elite xFIP-; he's also no stranger to October, though his career 2-6 record with a 4.43 ERA in the postseason suggests the Braves lineup can at least dream. Atlanta counters with Tyler Mahle, who's been better than his raw numbers lately — he spun a gem in his playoff debut for the Braves with seven innings of one-run ball against the Phillies and has history against this Dodgers lineup, having outdueled Shohei Ohtani with seven shutout innings against LA back in April as a member of the Giants. The Dodgers bring the superior roster across the board — deeper bullpen, better barrel rate, more thump — while Atlanta's offense has been quietly snakebitten by poor luck, hinting at some unrealized upside. With a gNERD score comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, plus actual stakes, this is appointment viewing.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80.2 | 8.6% | -5.6 | 6.4 | 73.2 | $413.5M | 30.0 | 23.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.97 | 0.96 | -0.96 | 0.25 | 1.43 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.97 | 0.96 | -0.96 | 0.25 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 8.84 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.7 | 8.6% | -2.9 | 17.4 | 45.9 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -35.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.52 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.53 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.52 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.18 |
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 12.9% | 62.4% | 95.7 mph | 32 | 18.5s | 15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.97 | 1.11 | -0.57 | 0.68 | 0.92 | -0.50 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.94 | 0.55 | -0.28 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.69 |
Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91 | 9.7% | 63.1% | 92.9 mph | 31 | 18.3s | 6 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.65 | -0.38 | -0.28 | -0.57 | 0.66 | -0.67 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.29 | -0.19 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.40 |
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 1:00p
Summary
This is win-or-go-home baseball, and both teams are leaning on bullpen games to get there. Cleveland, facing elimination in ALDS Game 3, is trotting out rookie Daniel Espino as an opener — the hard-throwing former first-rounder who logged a 4.11 ERA and 25:7 K:BB over 15.1 innings for the Guardians during the regular season, and made a scoreless appearance for the White Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS (a tidy bit of role continuity, even if the stat sheet doesn't give us enough data to score him). Chicago counters with its own opener, Sean Newcomb, who'll be opposed by another opener in Chicago's Sean Newcomb, and his 5.66 pNERD is solidly above average, built on a tidy xFIP- of 96 and a notably slow, deliberate pace that somehow still works in his favor. The White Sox roster carries the better overall juice here — young, cheap, and unlucky by their -27 runs luck figure, suggesting better days may be ahead even beyond this series. With a 13.27 gNERD comfortably above the historical average and right in line with today's slate, plus actual postseason stakes, this one's worth your attention regardless of the bullpen-game chaos.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -23.8 | 5.7% | 5.3 | 11.3 | 54.3 | $88.9M | 27.6 | 8.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | -1.30 | -1.35 | 0.35 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.22 |
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 31.4 | 8.3% | -4.0 | 8.9 | 45.7 | $105.8M | 27.1 | -27.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.80 | 0.65 | -0.70 | 0.35 | 0.49 | -1.11 | -1.76 | -1.18 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.80 | 0.65 | -0.70 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 1.11 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 8.65 |
Daniel Espino, Cleveland Guardians
No detailed stats available
Sean Newcomb, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 96 | 9.7% | 65.0% | 94.5 mph | 33 | 16.8s | -21 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.35 | -0.38 | 0.52 | 0.15 | 1.18 | -1.90 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.69 | -0.19 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.66 |
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 5:00p
Summary
This is ALDS Game 3, win-or-go-home for New York. A Yankees team facing elimination hosts a Rays club one win from the ALCS, which buys this game drama the NERD score alone can't fully capture. Tampa Bay, fresh off clinching its fifth division title and a 2-0 series lead via 1-0 and 5-2 wins, sends out Nick Martinez, who went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 109 strikeouts during the regular season — solid bulk innings, though his modest pNERD (3.31) reflects middling whiff rates and a strike-heavy approach without much shine. Across the mound, Max Fried has been the Yankees' best hope, having come into this game after a strong first start of the playoffs, holding the Red Sox to just a solo homer in six innings; his 4.47 pNERD is driven by a strong xFIP-, offset by a plodding pace that drags the component down.
On the team side, the Yankees' 7.11 tNERD edges Tampa Bay's 4.51, powered by a hard-hit, barrel-happy lineup, though New York's -33 run luck suggests this offense has actually underperformed its skill level and could be due for a correction. The Rays counter with elite barrel suppression but a shaky bullpen number. At a combined 9.70, the gNERD sits below the historical average and well under today's slate — this isn't a statistical showcase, but with New York's season on the brink, the stakes alone make it worth your attention.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 25.4 | 5.7% | 4.9 | 7.0 | 20.9 | $106.9M | 29.1 | 4.0 | 2.27 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.65 | -2.07 | 0.72 | 0.27 | -0.35 | -1.10 | 0.07 | 0.18 | -0.23 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.65 | -2.07 | 0.72 | 0.27 | -0.35 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.51 |
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 8.1 | 9.5% | 3.7 | 3.0 | 40.7 | $337.1M | 29.9 | -33.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.24 | 1.90 | 0.53 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 1.54 | 0.85 | -1.44 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.24 | 1.90 | 0.53 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.11 |
Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 108 | 8.2% | 68.2% | 92.5 mph | 35 | 19.4s | -34 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.38 | -1.07 | 1.84 | -0.74 | 1.70 | 0.24 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.75 | -0.54 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.31 |
Max Fried, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 87 | 10.3% | 63.2% | 93.9 mph | 32 | 21.4s | -20 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.89 | -0.10 | -0.23 | -0.12 | 0.92 | 1.89 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.78 | -0.05 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.47 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 6, 2026