MLB: What to watch on October 9, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.4 | 3:08p | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.6 | Cristopher Sánchez | 9.7 | Tyler Glasnow | 5.2 |
| 15.1 | 6:08p | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.7 | Chicago Cubs | 10.4 | TBD | No data | TBD | No data |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 3:08p
Summary
This NLDS Game 4 elimination matchup features two teams desperate to avoid disaster, with the Phillies facing elimination down 2-1 and the Dodgers trying to close out a series despite a bullpen in shambles and a pitching matchup that heavily favors Philadelphia. The gNERD score of 15.44 ranks at the very top of today's slate and sits well above the 95th percentile historically, driven by both strong team metrics and quality pitching.
The Phillies staved off elimination with an 8-2 Game 3 victory but remain one loss away from the end of their season, while the Dodgers lead the series 2-1. Cristopher Sánchez delivers the game's highest individual score with a pNERD of 9.73, fueled by his elite xFIP- of 68 and strong swinging-strike rate. He allowed just two earned runs in 5⅔ innings against these same Dodgers in Game 1, and he'll be on normal rest here. Tyler Glasnow's 5.23 pNERD reflects solid underlying skills but he owns a career 5.51 postseason ERA, and his strike rate component is notably negative. The Dodgers' 95 batting runs lead both clubs, but their bullpen remains in tatters after Clayton Kershaw became the latest reliever to lose trust. Philadelphia's significant luck component (1.27) suggests they've underperformed their talent level and could regress positively. Both teams boast strong broadcaster ratings, adding to the entertainment value of what could be a series-defining contest.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 66.7 | 9.0% | 7.9 | 1.2 | 27.9 | $279.5M | 29.5 | 29.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.94 | 0.34 | 1.08 | 0.06 | -0.21 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.94 | 0.34 | 1.08 | 0.06 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 8.32 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 95.0 | 10.0% | -1.3 | 1.4 | 56.5 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -3.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.33 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 7.59 |
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 68 | 13.9% | 67.0% | 95.4 mph | 28 | 19.4s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.01 | 1.56 | 1.36 | 0.68 | -0.13 | 0.71 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.01 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.13 | -0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.73 |
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 11.0% | 60.2% | 95.9 mph | 31 | 18.8s | -14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.68 | 0.16 | -1.62 | 0.91 | 0.66 | 0.22 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.36 | 0.08 | -0.81 | 0.91 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.23 |
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 6:08p
Summary
This NLDS Game 4 features two division rivals with elite team metrics squaring off in a potential series clincher, with the Brewers holding a 2-0 advantage and both teams sporting double-digit tNERD scores that rank near the top of today's games. The starting pitchers remain TBD for both sides, which creates uncertainty but doesn't diminish the underlying watchability driven by two teams firing on most cylinders.
The gNERD score of 15.06 sits comfortably above the historical median of 10.10 and matches today's strong slate, where games range from 15.06 to 15.44. The Cubs' tNERD of 10.40 leads both teams, powered by strong batting (71.9 runs above average), excellent barrel rate (1.16 component), elite baserunning (1.52), and top-tier fielding (1.46). Milwaukee counters with a 9.72 tNERD, featuring the best baserunning component in this matchup (2.13) alongside a strong bullpen (1.13) and solid fielding (0.91). The Brewers have outscored the Cubs 16-6 through the first two games, though Chicago has struggled with contact, striking out 58 times through five playoff games. The lack of pitcher data prevents deeper analysis of the mound matchup, but the team quality alone makes this worth watching as the Cubs fight elimination.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 50.3 | 6.7% | 15.1 | 21.6 | 57.2 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -26.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.13 | 0.91 | 1.13 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.15 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.71 | -1.57 | 2.13 | 0.91 | 1.13 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 9.72 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 71.9 | 10.0% | 10.9 | 35.0 | 28.8 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -6.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.52 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.27 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.01 | 1.16 | 1.52 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.40 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 8, 2025