MLB: What to watch on May 11, 2026

• 11 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Ryan Weathers has quietly become one of the more watchable starters in the AL, and the Yankees' lineup — led by Aaron Judge and his 16 home runs — gives this game genuine offensive teeth. The main drag is Brandon Young on the other side, whose underlying numbers suggest this could turn lopsided early.

This game tops today's gNERD leaderboard at 12.24, which also lands comfortably above the historical median of 10.1. The Yankees are the engine driving that score: their tNERD of 10.36 reflects a lineup that leads in barrel rate and batting runs, with Ben Rice posting a .678 slugging percentage alongside Judge's power. Weathers earns his pNERD of 8.81 the honest way — an xFIP- of 71 puts him well into elite territory, and his 45 strikeouts against just 10 walks over 38.2 innings reflect genuine command rather than soft contact luck. His Luck component is slightly positive, meaning he may actually be a touch better than his numbers show.

Young is the counterweight. His xFIP- of 124 is well below average, and a rookie last season who posted an ERA north of 6, he's split time between Triple-A and the majors in 2026. New York leads the season series 4-0 by scores of 7-2, 9-4, 11-3, and 12-1 — not exactly a coin-flip rivalry. The Orioles' fielding metrics are a genuine liability too. Worth watching for Weathers and the Yankees' offense; just don't expect a nail-biter.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

The pitching matchup here is the real draw — two starters with strong underlying numbers and a combined pNERD of 15.36 that sits comfortably above the historical average. Soroka's All-Star nod this season is a testament to his continued resurgence, and Eovaldi's xFIP- of 79 is quietly one of the better marks you'll see.

Soroka has been selected as an All-Star this season, a feel-good story for a pitcher who spent years battling back from serious injuries. His xFIP- of 84 and pNERD of 7.12 confirm the performance is real, not a mirage — though a luck component of +17 suggests some regression may be lurking. Eovaldi, at 36, is pitching like someone who hasn't gotten the memo about aging: his xFIP- of 79 and a strong SwStr% give him the higher pNERD at 8.24, though he too carries a luck score of +22, meaning his underlying numbers are better than his surface results so far. The Texas bullpen is a mild plus. Both offenses are below average in batting runs and barrel rate, so don't expect a slugfest. The gNERD of 11.64 lands above the historical median of 10.10, and near the top of today's slate — this one earns its watch primarily on the strength of two starters who are quietly pitching well.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

The Dodgers are a powerhouse team throwing a young arm with upside, while the Giants counter with a 25-year-old who just earned his rotation spot by impressing against the Padres — making this a study in contrasts that's more watchable than it might appear on paper. The gNERD of 10.20 lands right at the historical median, though the pitching matchup has a compelling subplot.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 9.93 is among the highest you'll see — their offense leads with strong batting and barrel rates, their fielding is elite, and their bullpen is one of the best in the game. The Dodgers also recently added a former Giant who figures to make an All-Star run in Dodger Blue, adding a little extra edge to this rivalry.

On the mound for LA, Roki Sasaki brings a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and the youth bonus that comes with being 24, but his xFIP- of 126 suggests he's been below average in terms of run prevention, and his 4.21 pNERD is squarely middle-of-the-road. His luck component of 22 is notable — he's been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers, so some improvement may be coming.

The Giants counter with Trevor McDonald, a 25-year-old with no pNERD data yet — he's essentially a fresh face in the rotation. In his most recent start, McDonald threw seven innings of two-hit ball, walking nobody and striking out eight. He's here because Logan Webb landed on the IL with right knee bursitis. The Giants' tNERD of 1.26 tells the rest of their story — a below-average offense with poor baserunning and a weak barrel rate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:10p

Summary

Brent Suter is the main draw here — a 36-year-old soft-tosser who's been quietly excellent for the Angels, now making spot starts out of the bullpen with an xFIP- of 84 and a pace that keeps games moving. The Angels' supporting cast, however, is a drag on watchability, with poor baserunning, fielding, and bullpen numbers all pulling the tNERD down to a modest 2.07.

Suter's fastball sits around 87-88 mph, but he limits hard contact — his average exit velocity against ranked in the 99th percentile per Statcast — which explains how a guy throwing batting practice velocity posts an xFIP- of 84. His pNERD of 7.40 is well above the historical average of ~4.9, and his quick pace (16 seconds between pitches) keeps things brisk. He's been effective out of the bullpen this season, posting a 2.40 ERA and 15:6 K:BB across 15 innings. His luck component is notably positive (12.0), suggesting his results could improve even further.

Cleveland's tNERD of 6.40 is solid, driven by a young, cost-efficient roster — their $88.9M payroll and 27.6 average age are both well above league norms for watchability. Joey Cantillo's pNERD of 3.80 is below average, with an xFIP- of 104 and below-average strike rate working against him.

The gNERD of 9.84 lands just below the historical median of 10.10 — a perfectly watchable game, but Suter's quirky profile is the real reason to tune in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Los Angeles Angels

Cleveland Guardians

Brent Suter, Los Angeles Angels

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

George Kirby has owned the Astros lineup, and the Houston bullpen is a genuine liability — this AL West opener has a solid pitching matchup at its core, even if neither team is lighting the world on fire at 16-25 and 19-22 respectively.

This game's gNERD of 9.70 lands just below the historical median of 10.10, making it a middle-of-the-road watch — and near the bottom of today's games. The headliner is Kirby, whose pNERD of 6.95 (above the 75th percentile historically) reflects his 96.7 mph fastball and an xFIP- of 89 — he's been genuinely effective. The current Houston roster is hitting .183 against him in 99 plate appearances, with Altuve going 3-for-25 and Alvarez 3-for-19, and Kirby has allowed just two extra-base hits in that entire sample. He's been surgical with a 2.08 BB/9 this season, which is bad news for a lineup that needs to string hits together.

Peter Lambert has been a welcome addition in Houston, posting a 2.42 ERA in four starts, including 7.0 scoreless innings against the Dodgers, with his strikeout rate climbing from 17.9% last year to 24.7% this season — a real improvement after escaping Coors Field. His pNERD of 3.94 is modest but respectable.

The biggest drag on Houston's tNERD is their bullpen, which ranks among the worst in baseball by Bullpen Runs (-15.5). Both teams carry meaningful luck scores, suggesting they're both underperforming their underlying numbers and could improve. The Mariners already swept the Astros in a four-game series earlier this season, adding some mild divisional stakes to the opener.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

The pitching matchup here is the real draw — two starters with above-average pNERD scores propping up a game that neither team's offense is doing much to deserve. Don't expect a run-fest, but you might see a quality duel between a resurgent Rays ace and a Toronto veteran still getting it done.

Rasmussen has been one of the better stories in the AL this season. He carries a 0.85 WHIP and a 32:5 K:BB ratio through 30.2 innings into this start, and his xFIP- of 71 — well below league average — earns him a pNERD of 8.23, comfortably above the historical 75th percentile. He's in the final year of his deal with Tampa Bay, so there's some added intrigue around whether he pitches his way to a trade deadline move. Gausman (pNERD 6.06, xFIP- of 83) is a reliable arm at 35, though his slightly slower pace works against him in the NERD calculus.

The team scores tell a less flattering story. Tampa Bay's tNERD of 0.96 is near the floor of today's games, dragged down by poor barrel rates and shaky defense. Toronto's 3.72 is more respectable, boosted by solid bullpen and fielding numbers, but both offenses are running negative batting runs. This gNERD of 9.48 sits at the low end of today's slate — the pitching is worth your attention, even if the run-scoring probably won't be.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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  MLB: What to watch on May 10, 2026