MLB: What to watch on May 12, 2026

• 12 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Will Warren is quietly becoming one of the more watchable starters in the AL, and his xFIP-based numbers back it up — though Baltimore's mystery starter and a lopsided matchup cap the ceiling here. This game sits at a gNERD of 13.50, the highest on today's slate and well above the historical median of around 10.

Warren is the engine driving this game's watchability. His xFIP- of 65 — nearly two standard deviations below average — earns him a pNERD of 8.44, landing in the top quarter of all pitchers historically. The right-hander has been one of the quieter success stories in the AL, carrying a 4-1 record with an 11.45 K/9 across 41.2 innings. There's also a luck component worth noting: his pNERD includes a +0.95 luck bump, meaning he's been pitching better than his results show and likely has room to improve further. Warren entered 2026 as a potential odd man out, with Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole both on the mend. He's made that a non-issue.

Baltimore hopes to start lefty Trevor Rogers, who has been on the 15-day IL with illness since April 26. With a pNERD of 0 — no statistical data available — and a shaky track record this season, the Orioles' side of the pitching matchup is a genuine unknown. Rogers has allowed 3–4 earned runs in each of his recent outings, so "unknown" might be generous.

The Yankees' tNERD of 10.08 is the real team-side story: they rank among the best offenses by barrel rate and batting runs, with a strong bullpen to boot. The Yankees come in at 26-15, the Orioles at 18-23. New York already swept Baltimore earlier this month, outscoring them 39-10 in four games. The Orioles' fielding runs (-9.4) drag their tNERD down considerably. If you're watching for competitive drama, the series opener the night before — a Coby Mayo three-run homer in the seventh off a Yankees reliever — offered more of that than this matchup figures to.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Two first-place NL teams separated by a single game in the standings, both boasting top-five offenses — this one has genuine watchability baked in before a pitch is thrown. The gNERD of 13.18 lands near the 75th percentile historically, and the team NERD scores are the real engine here.

The Cubs (27-14) and Braves (28-13) are two of the best teams in the NL, and the underlying numbers back that up. Both clubs post strong batting runs (35 and 36, respectively), with Atlanta adding a notably high barrel rate and a bullpen that's been one of the better ones in the game. The Braves' offense leads baseball in runs, batting average, and OPS, while their pitching staff ranks at the top in ERA. Matt Olson leads Atlanta with 14 home runs and a .654 slugging percentage.

On the mound, Colin Rea (pNERD: 6.01) is quietly solid — his xFIP- of 88 indicates he's pitching better than surface stats suggest, and he works at a snappy pace. In six career starts against the Braves, the 35-year-old is 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA. His luck component is notably positive, suggesting he's been pitching better than his results show. Grant Holmes (pNERD: 2.73) is the weaker link, with an xFIP- of 113 that drags his score down. Holmes makes his eighth start of the season after having his last turn skipped, and he last pitched May 1, allowing six runs in five innings against Colorado.

Chicago has pieced together two 10-game winning streaks this season but saw its latest hot stretch snapped with a pair of offensive shutouts against Texas. The Cubs' offense is too good to worry about that as a trend — they still own the top team on-base percentage in baseball, with slugging fifth and team OPS fourth overall. Two elite offenses, a favorable pitching matchup for the Cubs, and a first-place collision: worth your time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Atlanta Braves

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

I'll search for the latest news on this game before writing the summary.Two division contenders, two shaky starters, and one knuckleballer who could make things very weird — this game has enough chaos potential to earn its gNERD of 12.74, which lands in the top quarter of today's slate and above the historical median.

This is the opener of a three-game series between two teams sitting near the top of their division races, which gives it a bit more weight than a generic mid-May interleague matchup. San Diego is tied for first place in the NL West with the Dodgers, while Milwaukee is riding high after a sweep of the weekend series against the Yankees. The Padres' tNERD of 9.29 is the real engine here — driven by an excellent bullpen and strong baserunning and fielding — while the Brewers bring a notably young roster to the table.

On the mound, Waldron's pNERD of 0.00 reflects a lack of statistical data, but he's 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 18⅔ innings — and his knuckleball adds genuine volatility. Sproat seeks his first MLB win in his sixth start, going in at 0-2, though his last outing — four scoreless innings with five strikeouts — showed promise. His pNERD of 4.76 is buoyed by his 96.9 mph fastball and youth, offset by a concerning xFIP- of 116 and real command questions. He's walked 18 in 30.2 innings, which could open the door for a Padres offense that, while batting just .185 over its last 10 games, has hit 10 home runs in that stretch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers

Matt Waldron, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

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Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Paul Skenes is the main reason to watch this game, and he's more than enough reason. The defending NL Cy Young winner brings a pNERD of 10.09 — the highest among today's starters and in the 95th percentile historically — and is coming off eight shutout innings against Arizona in which he flirted with a perfect game through 4⅔ frames.

Skenes retired the first 14 batters he faced in that outing, and over his past seven starts he's pitching to a 1.31 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 41⅓ innings. The underlying numbers back up the dominance: his xFIP- of 74 is well below average, he sits at 97.2 mph, and his youth (age 24) all contribute to that elite pNERD. Skenes is making a strong run at back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards.

The opponent on the mound, Michael Lorenzen, is a different story. His xFIP- of 110 and below-average strikeout and strike rates drag his pNERD to a middling 3.28. Colorado will counter with Lorenzen (2-4, 6.92 ERA) after losing the final two games of their series in Philadelphia. Colorado's team stats are weak across the board — negative batting runs, below-average barrel rate — though a luck component of 12.0 suggests the offense has been underperforming its underlying numbers and could show some improvement. The Pirates bring solid baserunning and a young, low-payroll roster that adds watchability points. This game is essentially a showcase for one of baseball's best pitchers against a Rockies lineup that's been struggling — and that's enough.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Yamamoto vs. a 0-4 Giants starter on a revenge mission, with the Dodgers trying to stop a three-game home skid after getting embarrassed by one of the worst teams in franchise history the night before — there's enough context here to make this worth watching. The gNERD of 11.33 sits just above the historical median, and the story is really one of extreme asymmetry.

The Giants (16-24) pulled off a series win over the Dodgers earlier this week, which is notable given that the 2026 San Francisco club is trending toward being one of the worst in franchise history. The tNERD scores reflect that starkly: the Dodgers post a 10.09 — ranking third in the majors with 54 home runs, with elite batting, fielding, and bullpen runs — while the Giants clock in at a dismal 1.41, dragged down by negative batting, barrel rate, and baserunning components across the board.

On the mound, Yamamoto is looking to avenge one of his two losses this season, having dropped a decision to the Giants on April 21 despite pitching seven innings. His xFIP- of 86 earns him a solid pNERD of 6.99. Houser is coming off his best start of the season but is 0-4 with a 6.19 ERA, and the Giants have lost six of his seven starts — he's also allowed eight runs and five home runs in first innings alone. His pNERD of 4.18 is propped up almost entirely by a large positive luck component, meaning his underlying numbers are worse than they look. Watch Yamamoto; hope Houser survives the first.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Adrian Houser, San Francisco Giants

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Eury Pérez — a 23-year-old with a 98 mph fastball and a full season of health ahead of him for the first time — is reason enough to tune in, even if the Marlins are a team still very much in the "building character" phase. The Twins' bullpen and defensive metrics drag their tNERD down, making this a lopsided matchup of team watchability, but Pérez keeps it honest.

Pérez missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, then returned in 2025 to post a 3.67 FIP with 9.91 K/9 across 95⅓ innings. His pNERD of 6.69 is solidly above the historical median, driven primarily by his 98 mph fastball and the sheer novelty of watching a 23-year-old with this kind of ceiling work through a full workload. His xFIP- of 110 is a drag on the score — he's been a touch hittable — and a luck component of +12 suggests he's been running worse than his underlying numbers, so improvement is plausible. He added a sweeper late in 2025 that generated a 46.4% whiff rate in a small sample, a pitch worth watching develop.

Bailey Ober counters with a pNERD of 2.40 — below the historical 25th percentile — held back by a below-average swinging strike rate and a velocity profile that sits nearly 10 mph behind Pérez's. Miami's tNERD of 8.37 is genuinely strong, fueled by excellent baserunning and a young, cheap roster. The Twins clock in at a middling 3.69, weighed down by a below-average bullpen. At 10.58, the gNERD lands right around the historical median — a perfectly watchable game, not a must-see, with Pérez as the main attraction.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Miami Marlins

Minnesota Twins

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

The Cardinals are a legitimately good young team on the road, and the Athletics have a hitter in Shea Langeliers who's been one of the best in baseball — but neither starting pitcher is likely to make you forget about your other plans. This one lands right at the middle of today's gNERD pack, and the team scores are doing most of the heavy lifting.

St. Louis comes in at 23-17, with a 13-7 road record — the league's second-best road mark. The Cardinals' tNERD of 8.61 is the main attraction here, driven by strong baserunning, good defense, and a roster that's winning on the road despite a pitching staff tied for the worst strikeout rate in the majors. The team's young average age (26.9) also boosts their tNERD. Shea Langeliers ranks third in MLB in batting average among qualified hitters, and Nick Kurtz has reached base in 34 consecutive games.

On the mound, neither pitcher profiles as a must-watch. Pallante's xFIP- of 111 runs above average, and his swinging-strike rate is a drag on his pNERD. He took a loss last time out, allowing five runs and eight hits in six innings against Milwaukee. Springs is marginally better by pNERD, but has surrendered a home run in three straight starts, posting one of the worst HR/9 rates among qualifying pitchers in that span. The Athletics' luck component is notably positive (11.0), suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and may have some improvement coming.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Athletics

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Zack Wheeler's return from thoracic outlet surgery is the story here — a two-time Cy Young runner-up making just his second start of 2026 after missing nine months, facing a Red Sox team that plays surprisingly good defense. This one lands right around the historical median for gNERD, which is about where you'd expect a game anchored by genuine star power but clouded by real uncertainty.

Wheeler had thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September, following a season-ending blood clot near his right shoulder in August. Through two starts, he's posted a 14:5 K:BB across 11 innings, and the early signs are encouraging: his fastball topped out at 96.5 mph with an average velocity of 94.7 mph in his debut. Still, he's building back up, and the pNERD of 0 reflects the lack of a meaningful statistical sample to evaluate him — we're watching a pitcher prove himself in real time.

On the team side, Boston's profile is the more watchable of the two: the Phillies have been leaning on Wheeler to stabilize a rotation that needed it badly, but their offense (-8.6 batting runs) and defense (-2.9 fielding runs) are both below average. The Red Sox, by contrast, bring genuine value on the margins — their fielding and baserunning are legitimate strengths — with a tNERD of 6.10 driven by solid fielding (1.84 component) and excellent baserunning (1.66 component). The Boston offense is a drag, but watching Wheeler work against a defense-first team has its own appeal. The Phillies' bullpen is a genuine bright spot (1.16 component), which matters if Wheeler's on a pitch limit.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Boston Red Sox

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

No detailed stats available

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Two sub-.500 teams, two pitchers with uninspiring NERD profiles, and a gNERD of 9.77 — this one lands right at the median of today's slate and just below the historical average, which tells you most of what you need to know.

The White Sox (19-21) open a three-game series against the Royals (19-22) — a pair of AL Central teams hovering just below the waterline, neither inspiring much confidence. The pitching matchup doesn't help: Stephen Kolek has no statistical data available (pNERD of 0.00), and Erick Fedde's numbers are actively discouraging — an xFIP- of 118, weak swinging strike and strike rates, and a pNERD of just 1.22 that ranks near the bottom of today's starters.

The more interesting side of this game is the White Sox themselves. Their tNERD of 7.75 is driven largely by a young roster (average age 27.1) and a lean $105.8M payroll — the kind of profile that can generate watchable baseball even without marquee names. Both teams carry a luck component of +0.77, suggesting each is currently underperforming their underlying numbers and due for some positive regression. The Royals bring solid fielding and decent baserunning to the table. Just don't expect the starters to carry the show.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Two middling teams, two pitchers who aren't fooling anyone, and a gNERD of 9.52 — this one sits just below the historical median and near the bottom half of today's slate. The most watchable thing here might be the Nationals' baserunning, which is genuinely excellent (1.79 baserunning runs z-score), and Cincinnati's barrel rate, which suggests real pop in the lineup even if the run production hasn't followed yet.

On the mound, neither starter inspires much confidence analytically. Mikolas, 37 years old, has logged 1,284 career innings with a lifetime 73-78 record, and his 2026 xFIP- of 106 confirms he's pitching slightly below league average. His swinging-strike rate is near the bottom of the league, and he's carrying a significant positive luck value — meaning he's been pitching worse than his underlying numbers would predict, so some improvement is possible. Singer's xFIP- of 111 is worse than Mikolas's, and his 90.9 mph velocity ranks among the lower readings in today's field. His luck score is similarly elevated, suggesting he too may be due for better results.

Cincinnati enters having won two straight with a solid 12-9 home record, while Washington arrives having dropped two straight and struggling away from home at 6-13. The Nationals bullpen is a genuine liability (–2.43 z-score), which could make late innings messy in the bad way. Hunter Greene remains out after elbow surgery, leaving Cincinnati's rotation thinner than it would like. A watchable game if you're a fan of one of these teams; otherwise, there are likely better options today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

The main storyline here is Tatsuya Imai's return from the IL — a pitcher who has shown almost no ability to throw strikes in his brief MLB career, stepping back into a rotation that's been gutted by injuries. Against a Mariners squad that has won eight straight against Houston, this game has a compelling asymmetry even if the overall gNERD of 9.47 lands just below the historical median.

Imai is scheduled to come off the injured list after sitting out more than a month with arm fatigue. His track record is hard to ignore: his last MLB start was against Seattle on April 10, when he pitched just one-third of an inning, walking four batters, hitting another, and allowing three earned runs. He made a pair of rehab starts, but there were still concerns about his command, with eight walks in five innings. His pNERD of 0.00 reflects the lack of reliable underlying data, but what data exists points to a very short leash.

Bryan Woo, by contrast, brings a solid pNERD of 5.08 — above the historical median. His WHIP tells the better story: he limits traffic, throws strikes, and has enough swing-and-miss to work through Houston's lineup. His strike rate component is notably strong. The Mariners' luck score (positive 9.0, z-score 0.77) suggests some underperformance relative to their underlying numbers, hinting at potential upside. Houston's bullpen is a real liability — Carlos Correa is out for the season, Jeremy Peña is working back from a hamstring injury, and Josh Hader is also on the injured list, leaving the Astros thin. Cal Raleigh is 0-for-36 since April 27, the longest hitless streak in the majors this season — worth watching if you enjoy that particular form of suspense.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Two middling teams, two middling pitchers, and a gNERD of 8.10 — this one sits in the bottom quarter of today's slate and below the historical median, making it a "watch if nothing else is on" proposition. The one wrinkle worth noting is that the Rangers carry a Texas-sized luck component (tNERD luck: +1.29), meaning they've been significantly outperforming their underlying numbers and may be due for some regression.

The Diamondbacks enter on a three-game win streak, though their IL is a crowded place, with Corbin Burnes, Jordan Lawlar, and several others sidelined. Both offenses have been below-average by batting runs, so don't expect a fireworks show.

On the mound, Gore (pNERD: 5.82) is the more watchable arm — his 95.5 mph velocity and youth (27) give him an edge, and his xFIP- of 96 suggests he's a tick above average. Gallen (pNERD: 2.54) is the concern: his xFIP- of 108 and suppressed swinging-strike rate point to a pitcher who isn't generating the kind of stuff that makes for compelling viewing. The Rangers bullpen has been one of MLB's best, which could keep things tight if the starters falter early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:10p

Summary

Walbert Ureña is the most watchable thing about this game — a 22-year-old rookie with a 98 mph sinker who's quietly figuring out how to start in the big leagues, facing a Cleveland team that's one of the more analytically interesting clubs in the AL. The gNERD of 7.85 sits in the bottom quarter of today's games and well below the historical median, so manage expectations accordingly.

Ureña signed with the Angels out of the Dominican Republic in 2021 and worked his way through the system before earning a 40-man spot, posting a strong ground-ball profile with a fastball that can reach triple digits. His pNERD of 4.58 is roughly average historically, driven almost entirely by his age (22) and his 98 mph velocity — his xFIP- of 116 is a real concern, suggesting he's been hittable when hitters do make contact. Since moving into a starting role, he's looked far more comfortable, pitching deeper into games and picking up his first MLB win.

Slade Cecconi (pNERD: 2.90) is the less compelling half of this pitching matchup, with a below-average xFIP- and a positive luck score suggesting he's been outperforming his underlying numbers and may regress.

The Guardians' tNERD of 6.79 is the game's bright spot — they're a young, low-payroll team with a solid bullpen. The Angels' tNERD of 1.42 drags the average down badly, with poor baserunning, fielding, and a bullpen that's been a liability.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Los Angeles Angels

Cleveland Guardians

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

The real reason to watch this game is Shane McClanahan, a pitcher whose return from the dead — two surgeries, nearly three years off the mound — is one of the better comeback stories in recent memory. The NERD scores are modest (6.90 gNERD, below today's average of 10.15), but McClanahan alone earns your attention.

McClanahan last pitched on August 2, 2023, before Tommy John surgery and a subsequent nerve procedure on his left elbow kept him sidelined until his 2026 season debut on March 31 — nearly three years between outings. He'll bring a 34:14 K:BB ratio through 34.2 innings into this start. His pNERD of 6.44 sits above the 75th percentile historically, driven by solid xFIP- (91), good pace, and above-average velocity. Notably, this is a rematch: McClanahan most recently shut out Toronto over 5.2 innings as part of a three-game sweep.

On the other side, Patrick Corbin (pNERD: 2.94) grades out below average — his xFIP- of 105 and below-average swinging strike rate don't inspire confidence. The Rays' team profile is genuinely rough: near-zero barrel rate and poor fielding drag Tampa Bay's tNERD to a near-historic low of 0.99. Toronto's bullpen and fielding provide some lift to their 3.44 tNERD, but neither team is particularly watchable on its own merits. Watch for McClanahan; feel free to skip the rest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Patrick Corbin, Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of today's gNERD range (6.53), and the on-field context mostly backs that up: two struggling offenses, a shaky starter, and a Mets team that can't stay healthy. That said, there's a watchable pitching contrast here that keeps it from being a complete skip.

Flaherty is the only member of Detroit's starting rotation from the beginning of the season who is not injured or suspended — which tells you something about the state of this Tigers team. His pNERD of 0.61 reflects the ugly underlying numbers: his 1.647 WHIP stems largely from 26 walks in 34 innings — nearly seven walks per nine innings — creating persistent traffic, and his xFIP- of 124 is well above average in the wrong direction. His last outing he allowed three hits and two earned runs over five innings, striking out 10 with one walk — a genuine outlier worth noting, but not a reason to revise his underlying profile.

Peralta (pNERD: 4.90) is the more watchable arm: his xFIP- of 93 sits just below league average, and his 34.4% whiff rate on his curveball provides a reliable weapon. The Mets are missing Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., and Jorge Polanco, and their offense has been historically poor with a .222 batting average and .628 OPS. Detroit's tNERD is dragged down by a fielding runs component that ranks among the worst in the data. This one is fine background baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Detroit Tigers

New York Mets

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

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