MLB: What to watch on May 13, 2026

• 13 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Jacob Misiorowski is one of the most electric young arms in baseball right now, and his pNERD of 12.72 — the highest among today's starters and near the top of all historical scores — reflects that. This game sits at a gNERD of 15.83, the highest of today's slate and well into the 95th percentile historically.

Through his first eight starts in 2026, Misiorowski leads the league with 70 strikeouts against just 17 walks. His xFIP- of 59 is exceptional, and his 99.6 mph average velocity is off the charts — he threw 10 pitches of at least 103 mph last Friday against the Yankees, producing the highest velocity any starter has reached since Statcast tracking began. "That's one of the best fastballs I've ever seen," Aaron Judge said. The Padres bring a strong tNERD of 9.07, driven largely by an excellent bullpen and solid defense and baserunning, even as their offense has underperformed. Michael King is a capable starter but his pNERD of 3.22 is modest — his xFIP- sits right at average and his strike rate works against him. The real draw here is simple: watching hitters try to do something — anything — with a 24-year-old throwing triple digits with elite swing-and-miss stuff. That's worth your time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers

Michael King, San Diego Padres

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

I'll search for the latest news on both teams and pitchers before writing the summary.Two NL division leaders squaring off makes this the de facto best game on today's slate — and the numbers back it up. With a gNERD of 14.54, this game lands near the 95th percentile of today's matchups and comfortably above the historical 75th percentile, driven by two genuinely strong teams and a compelling pitching asymmetry.

The Cubs sit at 27-15 (first in the NL Central) while the Braves are 29-13 (first in the NL East) — a series carrying the feel of a National League measuring stick. Both teams carry nearly identical tNERD scores around 8.83-8.84, which is elite: both rank among the top teams historically for batting runs and fielding, with Atlanta adding a strong barrel rate and a solid bullpen on top.

On the mound, Shota Imanaga (pNERD: 6.41) is the clear draw. His numbers read like a real advantage: 28.3% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate, 2.80 xFIP, and a .279 xwOBA allowed. His elite swinging-strike rate is the primary driver of his pNERD. In his last two starts, Imanaga surrendered just one run across 13 innings while striking out 15.

The counterpart is where things get spicy. JR Ritchie's 3.63 ERA is carrying a much shakier engine underneath: 5.11 FIP and a 6.87 xFIP, with a 16.0% walk rate. His pNERD of 0.00 reflects the absence of reliable underlying data on him, but what data exists isn't encouraging. The 22-year-old is making just his fourth MLB start and is undefeated but will need to clean up his walk issues. The Cubs' bullpen is a legitimate concern on the other side — Chicago's relief corps ranks second-worst in HR/FB rate and dead last in xERA over the past week — so don't expect a clean final three innings regardless of how Imanaga fares.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Atlanta Braves

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Shohei Ohtani is pitching at his peak — a 0.97 ERA, 42 strikeouts in 37 innings across six starts, and an xFIP- of 76 that puts him among the game's elite arms — and the Dodgers are a genuinely excellent team on both sides of the ball. The Giants, unfortunately, are doing their best impression of a team that wandered into the wrong ballpark.

Ohtani's pNERD of 9.28 is well above the historical 75th percentile and near the top of today's slate, and the underlying numbers back it up: he has a 0.97 ERA across six starts with 42 strikeouts and a 0.81 WHIP in 37 innings. His 97.9 mph fastball velocity is a full 1.78 standard deviations above average, and his repertoire features seven pitch types, making him one of just 16 pitchers in 2026 with an arsenal that deep. He's preparing for a full season of both pitching and hitting for the first time since joining the Dodgers — which adds its own layer of novelty to every start.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 10.07 is the highest in today's games and near the historical ceiling, driven by elite batting runs, barrel rate, fielding, and a strong bullpen. The Giants (tNERD: 1.51) are the opposite story — negative contributions across batting, barrel rate, and baserunning — though their luck component suggests some underlying underperformance that could eventually correct itself.

Robbie Ray (pNERD: 2.95) is below average by most measures, and his stats here don't give us much to hang our hats on. This is Ohtani's show, and the Giants are a tough crowd to root for tonight.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:10a

Summary

I need to search for Parker Messick before writing the summary. Let me try again.I was only able to retrieve information on Reid Detmers before hitting my search limit. Let me compose the summary based on what I found plus the NERD data provided.

Parker Messick's elite underlying numbers (xFIP- of 71) drive this game's watchability, and the matchup doubles as a compelling chapter in Reid Detmers' rotation comeback story. The gNERD of 11.85 sits comfortably above the historical median, and the pitching is clearly doing the heavy lifting.

Detmers spent all of 2025 in the bullpen before the Angels returned him to the rotation for 2026. He's been serviceable but inconsistent — allowing at least three runs in four of his six starts, with a 36:9 K:BB across 33.2 innings. His pNERD of 6.50 is solid, boosted by a favorable xFIP- of 92 and a luck component suggesting he's been underperforming his underlying numbers a bit. Messick is the more compelling arm here: his xFIP- of 71 — nearly 1.5 standard deviations below average, meaning well above-average — drives a pNERD of 9.18 that ranks near the 90th percentile historically. His quick pace (16.7 seconds between pitches) is an added bonus for viewers' attention spans. On the team side, Cleveland brings a young, low-payroll roster (tNERD: 6.47) that the model rewards, while the Angels (tNERD: 1.55) are a drag — poor baserunning, fielding, and bullpen all weigh them down, with a positive luck score suggesting they've been underperforming even those modest underlying numbers and could improve.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Los Angeles Angels

Cleveland Guardians

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

The White Sox — yes, those White Sox — are just 1.5 games out of first in the AL Central, and this game has a genuine divisional race feel to it that was unimaginable a year ago. The gNERD of 11.37 sits right around the historical median, but the storylines push it higher than the number suggests.

After losing 100-plus games in each of the past three seasons, Chicago finds itself trailing Cleveland by just 1.5 games — on this date last year, they were 14.5 back. The backdrop for this series game is a Royals squad trying to snap a two-game skid against a Sox team riding three straight wins.

On the mound, Seth Lugo (pNERD: 5.17) is the steadier hand — his xFIP- of 94 reflects genuine above-average effectiveness, and his pace (16.3 seconds between pitches) is among the fastest in the game, keeping things moving. He's also 3-1 with a 1.31 ERA in seven career appearances against Chicago. Rookie Noah Schultz (pNERD: 4.01) brings a 22-year-old arm with real upside — the 6'10" lefty throws from a low three-quarter slot with a sweeping slider — but his xFIP- of 116 and 5.76 BB/9 rate signal volatility. His last start saw him allow seven runs in 3⅔ innings against the Angels, walking four.

The White Sox tNERD of 7.95 is driven largely by their youth (average age 27.1) and payroll efficiency. The Royals carry a notable positive luck score, suggesting they may be due for better results than their 19-23 record implies.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Two shaky starters, two leaky bullpens, Great American Ball Park, and winds blowing out — if you like pitching duels, look elsewhere; if you like home runs, pull up a chair. Nick Lodolo is essentially making his second start back from a blister issue, having thrown just 5.1 innings all season, which is why his pNERD comes in at 0 — there's simply no meaningful data to work with.

Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs in his first outing and threw only 78 pitches — not exactly a confidence-inspiring audition. Jake Irvin enters at 1-4 with a 1.36 WHIP and 41 strikeouts over 39.2 innings, and his pNERD of 4.31 gets a meaningful boost from a luck component suggesting he's been pitching better than results show. Great American Ball Park is the top venue in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, and with winds blowing out to center, it could be a short outing for anyone who can't keep the ball on the ground. The Nationals' baserunning (a standout 1.94 component) adds some watchability, and Elly De La Cruz leads Cincinnati with 10 home runs, a .292 average, and a .518 slugging percentage — always worth watching. The gNERD of 10.84 sits right around the historical median, which feels about right: not a must-watch, but the conditions and the shaky arms on both sides make a high-scoring, chaotic game genuinely plausible.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

A solidly watchable interleague series game, with two young rosters, a Cardinals team that runs the bases and plays defense, and a compelling question mark on the mound in J.T. Ginn coming off the best start of his career. The pitching matchup itself is modest by the numbers, but there's enough surrounding context to keep things interesting.

The Cardinals come in at 24-17, third in the NL Central, and their tNERD of 8.03 is one of the stronger team scores you'll see — driven by solid baserunning, good defense, and a roster that is notably young (they lead the Athletics in quality starts, 14 to 7). The Athletics sit at 21-20, hanging around the top of the AL West, with their own respectable tNERD of 6.05 boosted partly by a positive luck component, meaning they may be due for some regression.

On the mound, neither starter grades out as a standout by pNERD. Liberatore's xFIP- of 115 is a real concern — he's been hittable, with opponents posting an OPS of .802 against him, and the Athletics rank 8th in baseball with a team OPS of .724. Ginn is the more intriguing watch: he allowed one run in 8.0 innings against the Phillies last week, with eight strikeouts and one walk — though his underlying numbers (xFIP- of 97) suggest that kind of dominance may not be fully repeatable. Sutter Health Park has been a launching pad all season long, which could make Liberatore's evening particularly eventful.

At a gNERD of 10.40, this sits right at the historical median — a perfectly reasonable game, not a must-watch, but worth having on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Athletics

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Dylan Cease is the main event here, and he's been worth the price of admission. The Rays' low tNERD drags the gNERD to a middling 10.08 — right at the historical median — but Cease's pNERD of 10.36 puts him near the top 10% of all starters historically, and he's earned it.

Cease has been everything Toronto hoped for after signing him to a seven-year, $210 million deal, leading MLB in strikeouts through his first five starts. He's added deception through pitch mix changes, and his overall whiff rate has climbed from 33.4% to 41.0%. The NERD numbers back this up: his xFIP- of 59 and 97.6 mph average velocity are both well above average, and his swinging-strike rate is elite. He currently sits second in MLB with 66 strikeouts on the season.

The Rays, meanwhile, post a tNERD of just 1.53 — near the historical floor — dragged down by a barrel rate and fielding runs that rank among the worst in the league. Toronto's fielding is a genuine bright spot (tNERD 3.26), but their offense has been anemic. This game is essentially Cease vs. whoever shows up, with Griffin Jax drawing the short straw opposite him (no statistical data available for a pNERD). Watch it for the strikeout artist; just don't expect a lot of scoring.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

No detailed stats available

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:05a

Summary

The gNERD score of 9.95 pegs this as a near-average game on paper, but the real story turned out to be Fried's elbow — and Bradish making the Yankees look foolish. What looked like a mismatch on the mound flipped entirely.

Bradish pitched six one-hit innings while Fried left after three with a sore left elbow, turning a presumed Yankee romp into a 7-0 Baltimore win. Fried is expected to be examined by the team physician Thursday, which adds a cloud over New York's rotation going forward.

The Yankees' tNERD of 9.87 — driven by a barrel rate more than two standard deviations above average and strong batting runs — made them a legitimate offensive threat on paper. Aaron Judge leads the team with 16 home runs, tied for the MLB lead. Baltimore's tNERD of 2.94 tells the familiar story: below-average offense, poor fielding, and the Orioles sitting at 19-24, a jarring fall from their recent run of success. Neither pitcher's pNERD was particularly compelling, and both Fried and Bradish came in with modest xFIP- scores close to league average. Bradish had historically handled the Yankees well, managing a 3.92 ERA against them over his previous eight starts — and he delivered again, even if the underlying numbers didn't necessarily predict it.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Andrew Painter is a 23-year-old rookie making his way through the school of hard knocks at Fenway, while Sonny Gray's underlying numbers suggest the Red Sox's defense and baserunning are doing more heavy lifting than he is. This gNERD of 9.10 lands just below the historical median of 10.1, and with today's games ranging up to 15.83, there are likely more compelling options on the slate.

Painter, 23, has struggled to begin his MLB career, going 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA. The surface numbers are ugly, but his FIP sits at a much more encouraging 3.59, which strips out defense. His pNERD of 6.15 is above the historical average, driven almost entirely by his youth — the raw stuff is there, with his fastball averaging 96.1 mph, though he's struggled to hit his spots. Opponents have teed off on the heater, batting .373 and slugging .576 against his four-seamer. His large positive luck component (61.0) signals he's been significantly unluckier than his underlying skills suggest, so improvement is plausible.

Gray's pNERD of 0.70 tells a different story — his xFIP- of 110 and weak strikeout and swinging-strike rates are genuine concerns, not bad luck. The Red Sox's tNERD of 6.56 is buoyed by Gray's 3-1 record aside — Boston's real value comes from strong baserunning and fielding, not their bats, who rank among the worst in the league by batting runs.

A rookie finding his footing against a veteran showing his age makes for a watchable developmental narrative, but the numbers suggest a middling game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Boston Red Sox

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

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Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Max Meyer returning to Minnesota — where he went to college — is the most compelling storyline here, and his 2026 resurgence after Tommy John surgery and hip surgery makes him worth watching in his own right. The gNERD of 8.94 sits a bit below the historical median, which tracks: Meyer is interesting, but his counterpart is a drag.

Meyer has battled through both season-ending hip surgery and Tommy John surgery, and he's responded with 37 strong innings in 2026, racking up 40 strikeouts. His pNERD of 6.11 is above average, driven by a solid xFIP- of 88 and good swing-and-miss numbers — his slider induces whiffs at a 42.4% rate and serves as his primary offering. There's also a tidy subplot: Meyer was originally drafted by the Twins in 2017 out of a Minnesota high school, then went to the University of Minnesota before Miami took him third overall in 2020. Homecoming, of a sort.

On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson's pNERD of 0.15 tells the story — an xFIP- of 139 and well-below-average strikeout and strike rates make him a tough watch. His luck component does suggest some positive regression may be coming, but that's cold comfort for tonight. Miami's tNERD (7.68) is the real team-side asset here, boosted by young age and a low payroll, while Minnesota's bullpen and fielding drag their tNERD down to 3.93.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Miami Marlins

Minnesota Twins

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

The main storyline here is Framber Valdez returning from a five-game suspension — a pitcher with genuine baggage stepping back onto the mound against a team he's historically dominated, but who is clearly not at his best right now. This game sits at a gNERD of 8.78, a bit below the historical median of around 10.1, and toward the lower end of today's slate.

Valdez served a five-game suspension after drilling Boston's Trevor Story in the back with a fastball following a disastrous outing in which he allowed 10 runs; he maintained it wasn't intentional. His $115 million contract makes this return something Tigers fans will be watching closely. His pNERD of 4.38 is right around average — his strike rate grades out well, but his swinging-strike rate drags, and a positive luck value of 9.0 suggests he's been pitching worse than his underlying numbers would predict, meaning some improvement may be in order.

On the other side, Christian Scott is making his fourth start of the season after missing all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. His pNERD of 0.00 reflects a lack of statistical data, but his last two outings were sharper — five and 4⅔ innings with a 2.79 and 2.50 FIP while striking out 14 over that stretch. His 95.9 mph fastball comes with a 27.6% whiff rate, which is a real weapon.

Both teams are dealing with notable absences. Detroit has lost six of its past seven games and its rotation has been decimated by injuries — ace Tarik Skubal underwent minor elbow surgery last week, and Justin Verlander has made only one start due to a hip injury. The Mets are without Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert Jr. The Mets' tNERD is weighed down by a -30.5 batting runs figure — a genuinely thin offense — though their bullpen grades out well. The Tigers' defense has been a liability, sitting at -15.6 fielding runs. Neither team inspires much confidence on paper, and the numbers back that up.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Detroit Tigers

New York Mets

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

Christian Scott, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Bryce Miller is making his 2026 season debut here — coming off an oblique injury that shelved him all spring — and that storyline alone gives this otherwise middling game a reason to tune in. The gNERD of 8.66 sits in the bottom quarter of historical games, and neither pitching staff nor team metrics are screaming must-watch, but there's genuine curiosity about what Miller looks like after a long layoff.

Miller will make his season debut against the Astros, having opened the year on the injured list after straining an oblique. He's had a bumpy couple of years: his production declined in an injury-shortened 2025 campaign, with 74 strikeouts in just 18 starts while missing over two months due to elbow issues. His pNERD of 0.00 reflects the absence of 2026 statistical data, so we're essentially flying blind on current form. On the other side, Lance McCullers Jr. (pNERD: 3.64) is league-average at best right now — his strike rate is well below average and his swinging-strike numbers aren't inspiring. His luck component, however, suggests he's been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers, so some positive regression may be coming.

The Astros' bullpen is a genuine liability, posting a strongly negative runs component — so if either starter falters early, the late innings could get messy. Miller's return will boost an already talented Mariners rotation, but this game is more of a curiosity than a marquee event.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

No detailed stats available

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Two teams hovering around .500, two pitchers with xFIP-s north of 100, and a gNERD of 7.76 — this one sits well below the historical median and near the bottom of today's slate. If you're looking for a reason to tune in, you might be waiting a while.

Ryne Nelson has surrendered eight home runs in just 38 innings, and his xFIP- of 117 confirms this isn't bad luck — the underlying skills are genuinely shaky. His pNERD of 3.47 gets a modest bump from his 96.3 mph velocity, but his slow pace drags it back down. Kumar Rocker has struggled with a 1.52 WHIP, and his xFIP- of 104 is only marginally better than Nelson's. Both starters carry meaningful positive luck scores, meaning they've actually been underperforming their already-unimpressive underlying numbers — so improvement is possible, though "possible improvement from bad" isn't much of a selling point.

On the team side, both Arizona (tNERD: 3.72) and Texas (tNERD: 4.49) grade out below average, with neither club hitting for power or running the bases particularly well. Arizona is also without Jordan Lawlar, A.J. Puk, and several others, adding pressure to an already thin roster. Texas's tNERD gets its biggest lift from a luck score indicating significant underperformance — regression toward their true talent level could make them more competitive, but that's a storyline, not a spectacle.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of today's watchability rankings, and the numbers make a pretty compelling case for doing something else with your afternoon. Quintana's xFIP- of 145 — the single worst pNERD component in today's slate — tells the real story on a 37-year-old soft-tosser whose underlying stuff has aged out from under him.

Quintana signed a one-year deal with the Rockies this February, and the veteran doesn't miss many bats, so keeping the ball in the yard is crucial — a task made harder by pitching home games at Coors Field. His 89.9 mph average velocity is nearly two standard deviations below the mean, and his swinging-strike and strike rates are both below average, producing a pNERD of -3.02 — the lowest of any pitcher today and well below the historical average of ~4.9. He'll carry a 14:13 K:BB into this start, which is not a profile that inspires confidence. Mitch Keller (pNERD: 3.94) is the more competent arm here, with an xFIP- of 96 that's roughly league average, but there's nothing in his numbers to suggest a must-watch performance either.

On the team side, Pittsburgh's tNERD of 6.77 is the game's bright spot — their baserunning ranks over a standard deviation above average — but Colorado's -21.6 batting runs drags the average down. Entering his age-37 season, Quintana is due a visit from the regression monster, and this game's gNERD of 5.43 is the lowest on today's board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jose Quintana, Colorado Rockies

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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