MLB: What to watch on May 15, 2026

• 15 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ New York Mets, 4:15p

Summary

The Subway Series opener pits arguably baseball's best young pitcher against a former Yankees closer turned Mets ace, and the gNERD score of 14.85 — the highest of any game today and in the 95th percentile historically — tells you this one is worth clearing your schedule for.

Cam Schlittler has been historically dominant, becoming the first pitcher since Walter Johnson in 1913 to post 50+ strikeouts, fewer than 10 walks, no more than one HR allowed, and a sub-1.50 FIP over his first nine starts of a season. His pNERD of 11.51 leads today's slate by a wide margin, driven by an elite xFIP- of 61, a 97.8 mph fastball, and pinpoint command — walking only nine batters all season. The 25-year-old's youth adds further upside to the score.

Clay Holmes has been equally compelling in his transition from closer to starter, posting a 1.86 ERA through 48.1 innings and reaching at least five innings in every start. His xFIP- of 92 is more pedestrian, but he brings the added wrinkle of knowing the Yankees lineup well, though facing Aaron Judge and company multiple times through the order is a different challenge than closing games.

The Yankees' tNERD of 9.40 is exceptional, anchored by elite barrel rates and batting runs. The Mets offense ranks near the bottom of the league, but their bullpen has been solid and their broadcast team rates well. The Subway Series returns to Citi Field with both clubs in very different spots — which is exactly the kind of tension that makes a pitching duel worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Yankees

New York Mets

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

The 2026 Crosstown Classic opener has genuine stakes on both sides: the Cubs are one of the NL's best teams, and the White Sox have clawed back to .500 for the first time since 2022 — making this more than a rivalry game on paper. With a gNERD of 14.60, this ranks near the 95th percentile of today's games and well above the historical median of 10.10, driven by two legitimately interesting teams.

The Cubs sit at 27-14, the second-best record in the NL, and their tNERD of 8.87 reflects it — strong batting runs, and particularly elite fielding (1.90 component). The White Sox have gotten back to .500 at 21-21, the first time they've been even after April since 2022. Their tNERD of 8.00 is boosted by a young roster (27.1 avg age, the biggest contributor) and a solid barrel rate, even if the baserunning and defense drag a bit.

On the mound, Cabrera (pNERD: 7.26) brings 95.9 mph velocity and an xFIP- of 89 — legitimately above-average stuff. He enters at 3-1 with 43 strikeouts in 46.1 innings. Burke (pNERD: 5.07) is the more contact-friendly arm of the two, with solid strike-throwing but below-average swinging strikes. Burke had given up six earned runs in his previous start against Seattle, though his underlying numbers remain reasonable. This Crosstown Classic carries probably the most intensity between these fan bases in recent memory — reason enough to tune in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

I was only able to retrieve information on Randy Vásquez. Let me use what I have, along with the NERD data, to write the summary.

Two pitchers with genuinely interesting underlying numbers, a Padres bullpen that ranks among the best in baseball, and a Vásquez breakout story that's hard to ignore — this game earns its place near the top of today's slate. The gNERD of 14.10 lands in the 90th percentile of today's games and well above the historical median.

San Diego's rotation has been battered by injuries, making Vásquez's emergence all the more watchable. He's among a handful of MLB pitchers showing significant velocity jumps, pumping his four-seamer at 94.8 mph, up from 93.5 mph a year ago. His xFIP- of 93 is solid, and his pNERD of 6.08 reflects a pitcher whose underlying skills are genuinely improving, not just running hot. The Padres' bullpen is a real asset here — their 26.5 Bullpen Runs is the standout driver of San Diego's strong tNERD of 8.66, one of the better team scores in today's field.

On the other side, Emerson Hancock posts the more compelling pitcher score at 7.67, driven largely by an xFIP- of 77 — that's legitimately elite, suggesting he's missing bats and limiting hard contact well beyond league average. The Mariners bring positive batting runs and a decent barrel rate, though their fielding is a drag. Vásquez struggled in a prior outing against Seattle, adding a small revenge-game subplot worth noting.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Seattle Mariners

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Braxton Ashcraft is quietly having one of the better pitching seasons you're not paying enough attention to, and that alone makes this game worth your time. The gNERD of 13.30 sits in the top quarter of today's slate and historically, putting it well above the median — and the pitching matchup is the reason why.

Ashcraft's pNERD of 9.64 is near the top of today's games and historically strong. The 26-year-old has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts, and is posting a 0.61 ERA in May after yielding just one run over seven innings against the Giants. His xFIP- of 81 confirms this isn't smoke and mirrors: he's been in elite form this month, and his 2.57 xERA and 3.01 FIP support the results. He also works quickly (16.9s pace) and misses bats, making him genuinely fun to watch.

On the other side, Aaron Nola is still searching for consistency since returning from a long injury layoff last year. His xFIP- of 88 is decent, and a large positive luck component suggests his results have been worse than his underlying stuff — so some regression toward respectability is plausible. Left-handed batters have shredded him this season with a .915 OPS, and Pittsburgh is a lefty-heavy lineup. The Pirates bring solid baserunning and a low payroll that the NERD model rewards. This one is carried by Ashcraft — catch him while he's still under the radar.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

The real draw here is Spencer Strider, who just made his 2026 debut last Sunday after missing the season's first six weeks with an oblique strain — and this is only his second start back. The Braves are baseball's best team, and watching Strider try to rediscover himself is the kind of storyline that makes a game worth tuning in for.

Strider made his long-awaited 2026 debut against Colorado at Coors Field, his first appearance since suffering a left oblique strain just before Opening Day. He struggled in that first outing — three runs in 3⅓ innings with five walks, though he did punch out six. His velocity was down two miles per hour from his pre-surgery 2023 peak, and his strikeout rate dropped from 36.8% to 24.3% in 2025. Because he's only two starts into his comeback, we have no 2026 statistical data to work with — hence the pNERD of 0. His second start against a Boston lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in batting runs (-27.5) will be telling.

On the other side, Connelly Early is a 24-year-old with a pNERD of 3.93, driven almost entirely by his age — his underlying numbers (xFIP-, SwStr%) are unimpressive. The real watchability here comes from the teams: the Braves entered this stretch with MLB's best record at 25-10. Atlanta's tNERD of 8.81 is driven by strong batting runs (36.0), a solid barrel rate, and a good bullpen — all of which rank well historically. Boston brings excellent defense (fielding runs of 16.6) and baserunning (4.7 runs), even if their bats have been quiet. At a gNERD of 12.47, this sits comfortably above the historical median of 10.10 — Strider's return arc alone makes it worth watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Atlanta Braves

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

The Freeway Series opener offers a compelling storyline in Blake Snell's return from injury, but the on-field matchup is lopsided enough that the Dodgers' offensive firepower may be the main event. With a gNERD of 10.46 — right at the historical median and roughly average among today's games — this one earns its watchability more from context than from pitching excellence.

Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, is back on the mound after starting the year on the IL, having opted to skip a final rehab start and jump straight into big-league action. His debut line wasn't pretty — five runs on six hits in three innings — but the underlying contact quality was encouraging, with the Braves averaging just 80.5 mph exit velocity against him. He also generated 16 whiffs and averaged 95.9 mph with his fastball, above his 2025 velocity. His pNERD of 0.00 reflects the lack of a full-season sample, not a lack of talent.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 10.20 is the highest of any team in today's slate, driven by elite batting runs, strong fielding, and a solid bullpen. Kochanowicz enters with a 5.00 xERA and is coming off his worst start of the season — seven runs allowed in four innings against Toronto. His pNERD of 3.88 is below average, with his xFIP- and strike rate both working against him. This is the opening game of the annual Freeway Series, with the Angels having swept the Dodgers last year despite L.A. going on to win the World Series. Both clubs are managing injury lists, with the Dodgers missing Glasnow and Miller, and the Angels without catcher Logan O'Hoppe and pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. The Angels' tNERD of 1.82 is among the lowest in today's games, reflecting poor baserunning, shaky defense, and a struggling bullpen.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Angels

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels

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Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

The I-70 Series opener at Busch Stadium pits a Cardinals squad that's playing like a legitimate contender against a Royals team that's been treading water — and the pitching matchup is solidly watchable without being must-see TV.

St. Louis comes in at 25-18 while Kansas City sits at 19-25, a gap that the NERD scores reflect: the Cardinals' tNERD of 7.55 is driven by a notably young roster (age component: +1.94) and a low payroll (+1.05), a combination that tends to signal genuine upside. Bobby Witt Jr. brings a seven-game hitting streak into the game, and the Royals' barrel rate and baserunning are both mildly above average — though their bullpen is a liability on both sides. Dustin May's calling card is his velocity (96.9 mph, +1.29 component), and his luck score suggests he's been pitching better than results show, which is worth watching. Wacha works fast (pace component: +0.69) but generates below-average whiffs. At a gNERD of 10.43 — right at the historical median — this is a perfectly fine game, especially if you're an I-70 rivalry fan, but it's not the evening's marquee attraction.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

St. Louis Cardinals

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:10p

Summary

A perfectly average game made slightly more interesting by a solid arm on one side and a total mystery on the other. Milwaukee's TBD starter is the defining storyline here — the Brewers haven't named their opener, which introduces genuine uncertainty into an otherwise middling matchup.

Joe Ryan, 30, is in his sixth MLB season with the Twins, and his 2026 line looks much like his All-Star 2025 campaign: a 3.04 FIP and 45 strikeouts over 44⅔ innings. His pNERD of 4.55 sits right at the historical median, reflecting solid but unspectacular underlying numbers — a slightly better-than-average xFIP- and good strike-throwing, offset by a pedestrian pace. Ryan works with a six-pitch mix, led by a 92.6 mph four-seamer, and his knuckle curve generates elite results with a 27.1% whiff rate.

The Brewers come in at 24-17 while the Twins sit at 20-24, a gap that shows up in their tNERD scores: Milwaukee (6.52) is buoyed by strong baserunning, a solid bullpen, and a notably young roster, while Minnesota (4.44) is dragged down by a below-average bullpen. Pablo López remains on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury for the Twins, a significant rotation loss.

At a gNERD of 10.26, this game lands right at the historical median — watchable, but nothing you'd rearrange your evening for, especially with one starter still unnamed.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

A middling Ohio inter-state matchup that won't set the world on fire, but two young pitchers keeping the ball in the park makes for a watchable enough Friday. The Guardians enter as a slight favorite at home, sitting a game ahead of Cincinnati in the standings at 24-21 vs. the Reds' 23-21, and Bibee — Cleveland's Opening Day starter — is the more compelling arm on the mound tonight.

Bibee's pNERD of 4.87 is near the median historically and sits right around the middle of today's pitchers. His xFIP- of 94 suggests he's pitching slightly above average, and his swinging-strike rate is a modest plus. The one knock is his pace — he works slowly, which costs him in the NERD calculus. Abbott, meanwhile, is a drag on this game's watchability: his xFIP- of 114 signals a pitcher who's been getting hit harder than average, and his weak swing-and-miss numbers don't inspire confidence.

On the team side, Cleveland's youth and low payroll ($88.9M) boost their tNERD, while Cincinnati's standout barrel rate — a genuine bright spot — hints at some pop in the lineup. The Reds' bullpen, however, is one of the weaker units in baseball by run value, which could matter if Abbott exits early. The gNERD of 9.58 lands just below the historical median of 10.1, making this a reasonable but not urgent watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cincinnati Reds

Cleveland Guardians

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Jack Leiter's pNERD of 8.37 — well above the historical average — is the main reason to tune in, but his 2026 season has been a tale of two pitchers: a dazzling start followed by a rough stretch that includes an ankle injury and real questions about whether the early promise was real. The Astros' bullpen situation provides a counterweight of its own kind.

Leiter came out of the gate hot this year, racking up 17 strikeouts in just 11 innings over his first two starts, and cut his walk rate to just 4.5% after it was a persistent problem — he walked 67 batters in 2025, sixth-most in the AL. But things have since unraveled: through six starts in 2026 he holds a 5.17 ERA with a 33/12 K/BB ratio, and has allowed three or more earned runs in four straight outings. He's also been nursing right ankle soreness from a fall during a start against Pittsburgh. His pNERD of 8.37 reflects his underlying stuff — a 96.7 mph fastball and an xFIP- of 86 — rather than his recent results, which is exactly the kind of gap that makes him worth watching.

On the Houston side, the offense is legitimate (20.5 batting runs above average) but the bullpen is a genuine liability, posting a component score of -2.18 — among the worst in baseball. Both teams carry notable luck scores suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers, so more offense is plausible. Arrighetti's xFIP- of 112 is a drag on the pitching matchup, but his youth keeps his pNERD from bottoming out entirely. At a gNERD of 9.37 — right around the historical median — this is a decent watch primarily on Leiter's arm talent and the question of whether it shows up tonight.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Houston Astros

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 3:45p

Summary

Two rookies with limited MLB track records take the mound for a pair of injury-ravaged teams hovering near .500 — there's a watchable pitching duel buried in here, even if the broader team context doesn't inspire much excitement.

Both starting pitchers have pNERD scores of 0, meaning we have no statistical model data on either — and that's actually part of the story. Trey Yesavage enters with a 0.68 ERA in his young career, and his FIP sits at 1.96 over 27 innings with 31 strikeouts — genuinely promising numbers for a pitcher MLB Pipeline ranked as a top-10 prospect. Opposing him is Ty Madden, making just his ninth career appearance and second career start. Madden has allowed just 6 hits with 12 strikeouts and 2 walks over 11 innings. Both teams are battered: Detroit's IL includes Tarik Skubal, Justin Verlander, Jackson Jobe, and Reese Olson, while Toronto is missing Jose Berrios, Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and Bowden Francis.

On the team side, the gNERD of 8.32 sits in the lower quarter of today's slate and below the historical median. Toronto's tNERD is dragged down by poor baserunning and below-average offense, while Detroit's fielding (-17.2 runs, a notably bad mark) is a real drag. Detroit does carry a meaningful positive luck value, suggesting their underlying performance may be better than results so far. The real draw here is two young arms finding their footing in the majors — if you're a prospect-watcher, that's your reason to tune in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Toronto Blue Jays

Detroit Tigers

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

Ty Madden, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:10p

Summary

Two Florida teams, two middling starters, and a gNERD of 7.38 — this one sits near the bottom of today's slate and below the historical median, and there's not much lurking beneath the surface to change that assessment.

The Rays come in at 28-14 and are one of the better stories in the AL, while the Marlins are 19-22 and just 5-10 on the road — a mismatch that the odds (-196 Tampa Bay) reflect plainly. The Miami tNERD of 7.70 is the one bright spot here, driven by solid baserunning and the value of a young, low-payroll roster. The Rays, by contrast, post a tNERD of just 1.24, weighed down by a barrel rate that ranks among the worst in the historical dataset and poor fielding numbers.

On the mound, Janson Junk's xFIP- of 97 suggests roughly league-average stuff, and his strike rate is a modest plus. Jesse Scholtens is a harder sell: his xFIP- of 112 and below-average swinging-strike rate give him a pNERD of 1.75, one of the lower marks on today's slate. The Marlins lead MLB with 44 stolen bases, which at least offers some action beyond the long ball. Otherwise, this is an intra-state series opener where one team is clearly better and neither starter figures to dominate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Miami Marlins

Tampa Bay Rays

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Jesse Scholtens, Tampa Bay Rays

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San Francisco Giants @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

This is a below-average game by most measures, pairing a struggling Giants offense with a pedestrian pitching matchup — hard to make a strong case for prioritizing it. San Francisco's 16-24 record is one of the worst in baseball, and their team stats back that up: dead last among today's teams in tNERD (1.04), with ugly marks across batting runs, barrel rate, and baserunning.

The Giants are in a real tough spot right now, sitting at 16-24, one of the worst records in baseball. Their tNERD of 1.04 is the lowest of any team in today's slate and well below the historical average, dragged down by a lineup that's generating far fewer runs and hard-hit balls than a typical MLB offense.

Mahle has pitched to a 5.18 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 42:20 K:BB through 41.2 innings this season — surface numbers that aren't pretty, though his xFIP- of 97 suggests he's pitching roughly league-average by underlying metrics. His luck component is a significant positive (34.0), meaning he's been meaningfully outpitched by his results — improvement is plausible. Civale, on the other hand, carries an xFIP- of 110 and weak swing-and-miss stuff, making him the less watchable arm on the mound today.

The Athletics bring a modest curiosity: a young, low-payroll club with a substantial positive luck component, suggesting they may have been underperforming their underlying numbers. At a gNERD of 7.08 — near the bottom quartile of today's games and historically — there are likely better options on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Athletics

Tyler Mahle, San Francisco Giants

Aaron Civale, Athletics

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Two struggling teams, one struggling pitcher, and a Coors Field backdrop — skip this one unless you have nothing better to do. With a gNERD of 6.35, this game sits near the bottom of today's slate and well below the historical median of ~10.

Merrill Kelly has been rough in 2026 — a 7.62 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, and a 20:18 K:BB ratio across 26 innings — and now heads to Colorado, which is a daunting road assignment for any pitcher. His pNERD of 0.47 reflects an xFIP- of 136, meaning his underlying stuff is well below average, and his strike rate is notably poor. At 37, this looks less like a blip and more like a veteran in decline.

Kyle Freeland is the more watchable arm here, with a pNERD of 5.12 — about average historically. His xFIP- of 103 suggests he's roughly league-average, and his strike rate is a genuine positive. Both pitchers carry a luck component suggesting they may be underperforming their underlying numbers, though neither's underlying numbers inspire much confidence.

Both teams post negative batting runs and barrel rates, and the Rockies rank among the weaker offensive clubs by those measures. The one silver lining: it's Coors Field, where even mediocre pitching matchups can turn into something chaotic.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Two struggling starters, a battered Orioles roster, and a Nationals bullpen that's been a disaster — this game's gNERD of 6.22 sits at the bottom of today's slate and near the historical 5th percentile for good reason.

Shane Baz comes in at 1-4 with a 1.56 WHIP and 38 strikeouts, while Zack Littell counters at 1-4 with a 6.94 ERA and just 17 strikeouts. Baz's pNERD of 3.80 is propped up mainly by his 96.4 mph velocity and a sizable luck component — his xFIP- of 109 signals he's been genuinely below average, not just unlucky. Littell's pNERD of -0.61 is the lowest on today's slate, driven by a brutal xFIP- of 140 and a near-zero swinging-strike rate. Neither arm inspires confidence.

Baltimore is also dealing with a remarkable injury list, including Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Ryan Mountcastle, Zach Eflin, and Felix Bautista, among others. The Nationals' tNERD of 6.32 gets a boost from solid baserunning and a young, cheap roster, but their bullpen has been among the worst in baseball — and that's where this game may well be decided. The teams meet Friday for the first time this season, which at least makes it a fresh matchup, even if the product on the mound isn't.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Baltimore Orioles

Washington Nationals

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

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