MLB: What to watch on May 14, 2026

• 14 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Two NL heavyweights close out a series, with the best pitching matchup of the day: a 37-year-old left-hander who keeps defying time against a 26-year-old flamethrower with a nasty xFIP, in a game that sits at the very top of today's watchability rankings.

This gNERD of 16.36 leads all games today and clears the 95th percentile historically, driven by two genuinely strong teams and a pitching matchup that earns it. Atlanta enters at 30-13 while the Cubs sit at 27-16 — the two best records in the NL — with the Cubs having dropped a season-high four in a row heading into the series finale. Both teams post tNERD scores near 9, well above the historical mean of 5.2, anchored by elite batting and fielding numbers on both sides. Matt Olson leads Atlanta with 14 home runs, and the Braves rank among the NL's best in on-base percentage and barrel rate.

Chris Sale carries a 3.48 FIP into this one, and his xFIP- of 78 (pNERD 7.32) reflects genuine skill, not just surface results. His whiff rate and strike rate both grade well above average. At 37, Sale has been consistently good all season and leads the Braves with 56 strikeouts. Ben Brown (pNERD 7.51) counters with a 2.66 FIP and 96.6 mph velocity that plays up his arsenal, and his return to the rotation this season has gone well, with Brown showing more pitch variety than in previous years. Two pitchers with sub-80 xFIP- scores in the same game is a genuine rarity.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Atlanta Braves

Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, 10:40a

Summary

Kyle Harrison is one of the better pitching stories in baseball right now, and the Padres bring one of the game's elite bullpens — together they push this game well into the top tier of today's slate and comfortably above the historical median.

On the mound for Milwaukee, Harrison is the main draw. His pNERD of 9.20 ranks near the 95th percentile historically, driven by an xFIP- of 81 — meaning he's suppressing runs about 19% better than league average — along with strong swinging-strike and strike rates. At just 24, he's one of the younger starters in the game, and his quick pace makes him easy to watch. On the other side, Griffin Canning is returning from surgery to repair a ruptured left Achilles that ended his season last June, and has made two starts for the Padres and appears to have a firm hold on a rotation spot. His pNERD of 0.00 means we don't have enough data yet to evaluate him statistically, so he's something of a wildcard. The Padres' standout tNERD of 8.90 is driven largely by an elite bullpen and strong fielding, though their offense has been below average. Both bullpens grade out well above league average. The Padres and Brewers already played earlier in this series, so there's built-in familiarity and a touch of recent friction. Harrison is the reason to tune in early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers

Griffin Canning, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Jesús Luzardo's underlying numbers are elite right now, and he's quietly turned a rocky start into a genuine showcase performance — making this a game worth watching for pitching alone. The Red Sox bring legitimate defensive and baserunning chops to the other side, giving this matchup more texture than a typical mid-May afternoon.

Luzardo is the story here. His pNERD of 12.23 ranks at the very top of today's slate and sits near the 95th percentile historically. The xFIP- of 59 tells you he's been genuinely dominant by the underlying numbers, and his 96.8 mph velocity and quick pace add to the watchability. After a slow start to the year, Luzardo has allowed just three runs total across his past three starts, including 6⅓ innings of two-run ball with 10 strikeouts against Miami. His large positive luck value (81) means his surface results have actually understated how well he's been pitching — expect more of what the underlying numbers are showing. He locked up a five-year, $135 million extension in March after finishing 2025 so strong, so there's some contract-year-adjacent pressure playing out in real time.

Ranger Suárez is a serviceable but unspectacular counterpart — an xFIP- of 87 and below-average swinging-strike rate make him a watchable innings-eater, not a headliner.

The Red Sox bring a tNERD of 6.82, boosted by strong baserunning and fielding numbers — their baserunning and fielding runs both rank nearly two standard deviations above average, which tends to produce the kind of small-ball moments that keep games interesting even when the pitching dominates. The Phillies' offense has been a liability, sitting below average in both batting runs and barrel rate, though their bullpen has been a genuine strength.

At a gNERD of 14.46, this game sits in the top quarter of today's slate and above the 75th percentile historically — worth your time, driven almost entirely by Luzardo's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Boston Red Sox

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

The pitching matchup here is the real draw: two young arms with strong underlying numbers facing off in one of baseball's best rivalries. The Dodgers' offensive machine — ranking near the top of today's games in batting runs, barrel rate, and fielding — gives this a gNERD of 13.97, well above both the historical median and today's game average.

Landen Roupp comes in at 5-2 on the season, and his pNERD of 6.88 is driven primarily by a strong xFIP- of 77 — meaning he's been meaningfully better than league average at preventing runs on a skill-adjusted basis. He's boosted his strikeout rate from 21.4% in 2025 to 26.7% in 2026, while also posting a career-best walk rate. He also works quickly — his 16.7-second pace is among the fastest in the game, which keeps things moving.

Emmet Sheehan carries the higher pNERD at 9.21, anchored by an xFIP- of 72 and a well-above-average swinging strike rate. His luck component of 47 — the largest here — signals he's been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers and is due for better results. The Giants, meanwhile, are a drag on watchability: their tNERD of 1.47 is the lowest of any team in today's slate, weighed down by poor batting runs, a low barrel rate, and ugly baserunning numbers. The Dodgers, by contrast, score a 10.37 — the highest tNERD today — and look every bit like the powerhouse their payroll suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:40a

Summary

Chase Burns is quietly becoming one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and watching him work is reason enough to tune in. The Reds are a mess around him — a leaky bullpen, a struggling offense, and a rotation held together with tape — but Burns himself is appointment television.

Burns, still just 23, leads the NL in bWAR among pitchers at 2.1, logging 47.0 innings that have been as valuable for their volume as their quality, given how badly Cincinnati's other starters have taxed the bullpen. His pNERD of 9.99 — well above the 75th percentile historically — reflects what the numbers back up: a 98.5 mph four-seamer paired with a slider generating a 56.3% whiff rate. His xFIP- of 85 and swinging-strike rate both score strongly, and at 98.2 mph average velocity, he's among the hardest throwers in today's slate.

Foster Griffin is a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation arm — his xFIP- of 95 is league-average — but he's not the draw here. The Nationals bring a young roster (average age 27.1) with solid baserunning and above-average offense, which at least promises some action against Burns.

The Reds carry the worst xERA in baseball and a wRC+ of 87, fourth-worst in the league — so if Burns has an off night, this could get ugly fast. But if he's on, you're watching one of the game's most electric young arms do what he does best. At a gNERD of 13.17, this sits comfortably above the historical median. Burns alone makes it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cincinnati Reds (2.09); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

Chase Dollander is the reason to tune in here — a 24-year-old with a triple-digit fastball who has quietly become one of the more watchable young arms in baseball in 2026. The Pirates are a legitimately solid club, even if the Rockies aren't.

This game's gNERD of 11.47 lands right around the historical median, though it sits a touch below today's slate average of 12.11 — a decent but not destination watch. The pitching side carries most of the weight, with an average pNERD of 6.67 driven almost entirely by Dollander's 8.35.

The Rockies have searched for years for a true ace, and in 2026, Dollander may have started to fit the mold — a significant turnaround after a shaky rookie year that saw him post a 6.52 FIP-adjacent debut. His fastball run value ranks in the 99th percentile this season, and his pNERD of 8.35 reflects that — sitting well above the historical 75th percentile. The Rockies have also scrapped the traditional rotation under new pitching coach Alon Leichman, using openers before handing the ball to multi-inning arms like Dollander.

On the other side, Mason Montgomery gets a pNERD of 0.00 — no statistical data available, so he's essentially a black box. The Pirates' tNERD of 6.60 is the game's bright spot team-wise, buoyed by solid baserunning and a low payroll that scores well in the model. Colorado's tNERD of 2.99 reflects a lineup that ranks among the weaker offensive units in baseball this year.

Come for Dollander's fastball. Manage your expectations for everything else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

Mason Montgomery, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets, 10:10a

Summary

Nolan McLean is the main reason to watch this game — a 24-year-old rookie who has quietly become the NL's most compelling young arm, backed by underlying numbers that are genuinely elite. The Tigers counter with Keider Montero, whose stats are decidedly less inspiring, making this a lopsided pitching matchup that still delivers a compelling storyline.

McLean's pNERD of 10.85 is the headline here — sitting near the top of today's slate and well above the historical 95th percentile. That xFIP- of 62 tells you the underlying numbers aren't a mirage. Through eight 2026 starts, he's posted a 2.78 ERA with 57 strikeouts and a 0.90 WHIP. He's still technically a rookie, having stayed under 50 innings pitched in 2025. Nicknamed "Cowboy Ohtani," McLean starred as a two-way player at Oklahoma State, hitting 36 home runs while racking up 76 strikeouts in 57.1 innings on the mound. His quick pace (16.5 seconds between pitches) also contributes positively to watchability.

Montero, meanwhile, carries a 110 xFIP- and weak swing-and-miss numbers — a below-average profile that keeps his pNERD at a modest 3.14. The Tigers do bring a solid barrel rate, but their fielding (-15.6 runs) is a drag, and the Mets' offense has been genuinely poor on the season. The Tigers' significant positive luck score (15.0) suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers offensively, so expect some regression toward better results.

This is a game worth watching primarily for one reason: McLean is the real deal, and the NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner deserves your attention.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Detroit Tigers

New York Mets

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins, 10:40a

Summary

The NERD data lists the Miami starter as TBD with a pNERD of 0, and the web search confirms some uncertainty — sources variously mention Braxton Garrett or Robby Snelling as the Marlins' starter. Minnesota's starter appears to be Connor Prielipp, not Zebby Matthews as listed. Let me work with what's available.

The series rubber match between two .500-ish teams features a pair of young pitchers the stat sheets haven't caught up with yet — which is either a feature or a bug, depending on your tolerance for uncertainty. The Marlins' starter is still TBD (sources point to Braxton Garrett making his first MLB appearance of the season), while Minnesota counters with Connor Prielipp, making this a game where the pitching matchup is more interesting for its novelty than its pedigree.

The Marlins and Twins split the first two games of this series, 3-0 and 9-5. Garrett, if he gets the nod, would be making his first MLB appearance of the season. Prielipp is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 19 innings — modest but clean. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores of 0, meaning we're essentially flying blind on the analytics side.

Miami's tNERD of 7.58 is the more interesting team number, driven by strong baserunning and a young, low-payroll roster that punches above its financial weight. Xavier Edwards' .400 OBP leads the team, batting .314 while slugging .464 — a legitimately useful hitter. The Twins' bullpen is a mild drag on their tNERD. At 10.96, the gNERD sits right around the historical median, making this a perfectly watchable series finale — just don't rearrange your schedule for it.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Miami Marlins

Minnesota Twins

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

Two teams headed in opposite directions meet for a series finale, with a series-long pattern of Seattle dominance and a struggling Astros squad that's been ravaged by injuries — making this a watchable game more for its drama than its pitching matchup. The gNERD of 10.54 lands right around the historical median, and about average among today's slate as well.

Seattle leads the series 2-1 and is looking to take three of four before leaving Houston. The Mariners have been doing this all year to the Astros: this series extended Seattle's franchise-record winning streak against Houston to eight straight. Nothing has gone right for the Astros this year — they've been decimated by injuries, and Carlos Correa is now the latest star lost for the season, joining 15 others on the IL, the most in the majors. The Astros' bullpen is the biggest drag on their tNERD, posting a component score of -2.25, easily the worst on the field today. Both that ugly 'pen and a large positive luck component suggest the Astros have been underperforming even their already-poor underlying numbers — meaning they could actually be better than they've looked.

On the mound, Castillo has the bigger name but a rough season so far at 0-4 with a FIP-based xFIP- of 105, slightly above league average. Burrows (pNERD 6.80) is the more interesting pitcher here — acquired in a three-team trade this offseason, he was quietly solid for Pittsburgh in his first full big-league season. His youth (26) and solid stuff give him a modest edge in the NERD component, and like Castillo, his luck component suggests he's been pitching better than his results show.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Mike Burrows, Houston Astros

Go back to top of page

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

This is a series finale between two AL Central teams hovering near .500, but the pitching matchup is the main reason to temper your enthusiasm. Anthony Kay's pNERD of -0.18 is the lowest of today's starters, dragged down by a 126 xFIP- and a poor swinging-strike rate — the numbers suggest he's a genuine liability on the mound.

Bubic has been the better arm this season, going 3–1 with 47 strikeouts in 46.1 innings, and his pNERD of 3.90 is at least respectable. Kay, meanwhile, has allowed 38 hits and 17 walks in just 35 innings, and his underlying metrics back up the ugly surface numbers.

The White Sox's tNERD of 7.93 is the more interesting team-level story: Munetaka Murakami leads the team with 15 home runs and a .900 OPS, and Chicago's youth (average age 27.1) and below-market payroll both add NERD value. The Royals carry a notable positive luck score (10.0), suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and are due for some improvement. Bobby Witt Jr. has posted a .306 average, 7 home runs, and an .884 OPS and is worth watching regardless. At a gNERD of 8.47 — below the historical median of 10.10 — this one is squarely in "background game" territory.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics, 12:05p

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of today's gNERD pile, and the pitching matchup is mostly to blame. The Cardinals' young, contact-heavy rotation has produced a solid season so far — McGreevy is 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA — but his profile here is middling: a decent xFIP- of 90 is undercut by below-average swinging-strike and strike rates, and he tends to pitch to contact, which can be a dangerous game against power hitters. Jacob Lopez is described as a "funky lefty who uses extreme angles to keep batters off balance," but his numbers tell a harsher story: an xFIP- of 144 is the worst among today's starters by a wide margin, dragging his pNERD to -2.33 — the lowest in today's slate and near the historical floor.

The Athletics carry a notable luck component: their positive luck score of 13.0 suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and could be due for some offensive improvement. The Cardinals, meanwhile, bring genuine youth-driven appeal — manager Oliver Marmol is leading a much younger group, built around players like Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson — and their average age of 26.9 is one of the youngest in the league, which lifts their tNERD. Both team scores are respectable, but with Lopez's underlying numbers this shaky, the game's watchability leans heavily on whether the Cardinals offense can take advantage early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Athletics

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on May 13, 2026