MLB: What to watch on May 22, 2026

• 22 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Two pitchers sitting in the top tier of today's pNERD scores — and historically — make this the day's most watchable game, full stop. Gavin Williams and Cristopher Sánchez each bring elite underlying stuff, and the numbers back it up convincingly.

Williams's xFIP- of 75 tells you he's been genuinely good, not just lucky — and his pNERD of 10.56 is the highest among today's pitchers and sits above the 95th percentile historically. He logged 173 strikeouts in 167⅔ innings over 31 starts in 2025, and after leading MLB with 83 walks in 2025, he's made it a priority to rein in the free passes. He sits at a 3.74 ERA with a 66:22 K:BB ratio across 55.1 innings this season — the strikeouts are very much still there. His luck component of +15 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky relative to his underlying numbers, so expect him to pitch even better than recent results imply.

Sánchez is arguably the more eye-catching number: an xFIP- of 56 is genuinely elite, and his pNERD of 10.02 matches Williams near the top of the historical distribution. His negative luck value means he's been outperforming his already-strong underlying metrics, so some regression is possible.

Cleveland enters with what amounts to a rotation headache — a good one — featuring two ace-worthy arms, and their tNERD of 7.79 reflects a young, well-run team. At a gNERD of 16.81, this is the top game of the day and ranks near the historical maximum. Put it on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Philadelphia Phillies

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Two young pitchers with injury-riddled pasts take the mound, and both have the underlying numbers to make this worth your time. The Red Sox's fielding and baserunning excellence adds a layer of watchability that their anemic offense can't quite cancel out.

Prielipp has been developing into a legitimate rotation piece for Minnesota, posting a .169 opponents' average and 29 strikeouts in 25 MLB innings across his first five starts. He got there the hard way — Tommy John surgery derailed what looked like a future top-pick career, and the Twins have been careful with his workload, noting he's thrown barely 150 innings since high school. His pNERD of 6.03 is solid, driven mainly by his age and a quick pace on the mound. His counterpart, Payton Tolle (pNERD: 8.95), is even younger at 23 and grades out better across the board — his strike rate is a standout, sitting more than two standard deviations above average.

Boston's tNERD of 8.01 is the real engine here, fueled by elite fielding and strong baserunning, even as their offense has been a drag. That said, their large positive luck score suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers offensively, so improvement may be coming. At a gNERD of 13.52 — well above the historical median of 10.1 — this one earns its place near the top of today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Minnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Two division leaders, a revenge narrative, and the defending NLCS champion Dodgers walking into Milwaukee — this game has real stakes baked in. The gNERD of 13.00 lands well above the historical median (10.10), and the Dodgers' tNERD of 10.92 is the highest of any team in today's slate, driven by elite offense (batting runs z-score: 2.23), solid fielding, and a strong bullpen.

This is the first meeting between these teams since the Dodgers swept Milwaukee in the National League Championship Series last season, so the Brewers would like to show the Dodgers they are not the easy mark they were in the 2025 NLCS. Los Angeles comes in at 31-19, first in the NL West; Milwaukee sits at 29-18, first in the NL Central.

On the mound, Wrobleski is the surprising star of the Dodgers' rotation with 1.3 bWAR, though he's managed just 27 strikeouts in 50.2 innings. His pNERD of 3.10 is below average, with a worrying xFIP- of 119 — suggesting his results have outrun his underlying stuff. Henderson is a 24-year-old rookie proving reliable at the back of Milwaukee's rotation, with 23 strikeouts and just three walks in 18.0 innings. His pNERD is 0.00 due to missing data, but no LA hitter has ever faced Henderson in a regular season major league game — a genuine unknown that could cut either way.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Milwaukee Brewers

Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

The Braves are one of the NL's best teams and bring genuine offensive firepower, making this a watchable NL East clash — but Mikolas's struggles and an unknown Atlanta starter cap the ceiling. With Atlanta sitting at 35-16 and Washington at 25-26, the records tell most of the story, though the Nationals are a livelier team than that gap suggests.

The confirmed starters are Miles Mikolas for Washington and Bryce Elder for Atlanta. Mikolas's pNERD of 3.07 is below the historical median, and the underlying numbers explain why: his xFIP- of 108 signals a below-average pitcher, and his SwStr% is particularly weak. He's 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 41⅔ innings. His one saving grace in the NERD math is a substantial positive luck component, meaning he's been pitching even worse than those ugly results imply — expect some regression toward merely bad rather than catastrophic.

Both teams carry solid tNERD scores. Atlanta's offense is the headliner: their batting runs and barrel rate both rank well above average. Washington counters with surprisingly strong baserunning and a young, cheap roster — though their bullpen is a genuine liability. Atlanta has racked up 15 home runs over their last 10 games with 29 extra-base hits. The gNERD of 11.74 lands right around the middle of today's slate — worth a look if you're an NL East follower, but not must-see TV.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals

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Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

Davis Martin is quietly becoming one of the more compelling pitching stories in baseball this year, and his xFIP- of 72 tells you the underlying numbers back up the surface results. The Giants, meanwhile, are running out a mystery arm in Trevor McDonald with no statistical record to evaluate — which is either intriguing or concerning, probably the latter.

Martin's 2026 has been a genuine breakout: through seven starts he's 5-1 with a 43/8 K/BB ratio, sitting tied for third in the AL in pitcher fWAR. The pNERD of 8.33 — well above the historical 75th percentile — reflects real skill: a 27.1 percent strikeout rate (80th percentile) and 35.7 percent chase rate (89th percentile), driven in part by a vastly increased cutter usage and a slider limiting batters to a .077 average with a 53.3 percent whiff rate. He's also a Tommy John survivor who only returned to full workloads in 2025, making this arc worth watching.

The team picture is lopsided. The White Sox carry a strong tNERD of 8.62, boosted by a young roster and solid barrel rate, plus a luck component suggesting they've been slightly underperforming their underlying numbers. The Giants, at 1.49, are near the historical floor — poor batting runs, a bottom-tier barrel rate, and brutal baserunning drag them down. McDonald's pNERD of 0.00 means there's simply no statistical basis to assess him.

This game lands above the historical median gNERD, and the Martin storyline alone makes it worth a look — just don't expect much from the other side of the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Chicago White Sox

San Francisco Giants

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Trevor McDonald, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

I was only able to complete the first search this turn. Let me search for Noah Cameron and the Royals now.I've hit the search limit for this turn. Let me search for Noah Cameron and the Royals on the next turn.I'll now use what I've gathered to write the summary, noting what I found about Logan Gilbert and working with the statistical data provided for Noah Cameron (whose pNERD of 5.41 is above average but driven largely by age and pace rather than stuff).

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Kansas City Royals

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

Eury Pérez is the main reason to tune in here — a 23-year-old with a 98 mph fastball who has survived Tommy John surgery and is now being positioned as the Marlins' future ace. The gNERD of 11.67 lands just above the historical median, and sits in the middle of today's slate.

Through five 2026 starts, Pérez has 27 strikeouts across 26 innings, though his walk rate has climbed to a career-worst 10.7% — his fastball velocity is actually up to 98.2 mph, so the stuff is there. His pNERD of 6.52 is driven primarily by that elite velocity and his age (just 23), though his xFIP- of 110 is a real concern, and a luck component of +0.95 suggests he's been pitching somewhat worse than his underlying numbers warrant — meaning improvement is plausible.

Pérez now appears positioned to be the Marlins' staff ace in 2026, making each of his starts worth watching as that narrative develops.

On the other side, Tobias Myers is a perfectly cromulent starter — his pNERD of 4.92 is right around average, with an xFIP- of 98 suggesting league-average effectiveness. Miami's tNERD of 7.10 is the more interesting team score, boosted by their youth, a low payroll, and genuinely strong baserunning. The Mets' offense is a drag — their batting runs rank near the bottom — but a solid bullpen helps.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Tobias Myers, New York Mets

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Athletics @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

The Padres bring a strong bullpen and elite defense to a matchup with genuine NL West stakes, and the Athletics are a legitimately watchable young team punching above their payroll. The pitching matchup, though, is the limiting factor here.

San Diego enters this series coming off a rough Dodgers series, dropping two of three and falling 1.5 games back in the NL West — so there's real urgency on the home side. The Athletics come in at 26-24 overall, a respectable mark for a club with a tNERD of 6.56, boosted by a low payroll and a young roster. Their luck component is notably positive, suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and may have more offense in the tank.

The Padres' tNERD of 8.54 is driven by a terrific bullpen and strong defense, though their offense has been a genuine drag. Buehler has struck out 37 and walked 14 across 41.1 innings, and his xFIP- of 92 suggests he's been better than his surface numbers indicate — though his swinging-strike rate is a concern. Springs has 47 strikeouts and 16 walks over 55 innings, with an xFIP- of 105 that says he's been a bit fortunate. This game's gNERD of 11.46 sits right around the historical median, making it a solid but unspectacular watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Athletics

San Diego Padres

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

This is Gerrit Cole's first start back from Tommy John surgery, and that alone makes it worth watching — a 2023 Cy Young winner returning after more than 14 months away from the majors is not an everyday occurrence. The Yankees are also the most watchable team on the field today by a wide margin, with a tNERD of 9.45 that ranks among the best in the historical data — driven by a barrel rate more than two standard deviations above average and a batting line that's been genuinely productive.

Cole hasn't appeared in the big leagues since Game 5 of the 2024 World Series, and when healthy he's one of the best pitchers of his generation, with a Cy Young, two ERA titles, and six All-Star selections to his name. In his final rehab start, he touched 99.6 mph and averaged 97 mph with his fastball over 5⅓ innings at Triple-A. The pNERD of 0.00 simply reflects the absence of 2026 MLB statistical data — not a knock on the pitcher. Expect a pitch count in the 75–85 range as the Yankees ease him back in.

Despite pitching injuries, New York sits three games behind the division-leading Rays in the AL East, which gives this matchup genuine stakes. Tampa Bay's tNERD of 2.69 is below average — their barrel rate is notably weak — but they're the division leaders, and Nick Martinez is a serviceable if unspectacular opponent for Cole's homecoming. At a gNERD of 10.45, this game sits right at the historical median, but the Cole storyline pushes its real-world watchability well above what the number alone suggests.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

I now have enough information to write the summary. Let me note that the deGrom news is from early April — he had a knee issue in May per ESPN's headlines. The pNERD of 9.97 is the real star here, well above the 75th percentile historically. Let me compose the summary.

The main reason to watch this game is Jacob deGrom, whose pNERD of 9.97 lands near the 95th percentile historically — and the underlying numbers back it up. The Angels, meanwhile, are one of the least watchable teams in today's slate, dragging this one back toward average.

deGrom enters 2026 coming off a 30-start season — his first time hitting that mark since 2019 — and a fifth All-Star nod. At 38, he's still bringing a 27.7% strikeout rate against a 5.5% walk rate, and his current xFIP- of 74 confirms he's been genuinely excellent, not just lucky. His 97.2 mph velocity and elite swinging-strike rate round out a profile that's hard to look away from. Recent headlines flagged a tender knee and a clean MRI with an uncertain start, so his availability itself carries some drama.

On the other side, Grayson Rodriguez has no statistical data available (pNERD: 0.00), so he's a bit of a black box. The Angels' tNERD of 0.63 is the lowest of any team today — their lineup, bullpen, and baserunning all grade out poorly. The Rangers aren't much better offensively. This game is essentially deGrom carrying the watchability on his own, which, historically, he's been capable of doing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Bubba Chandler's 98-mph arm is undeniably electric, but his command has been a disaster lately — and facing a Blue Jays team with a strong bullpen and solid defense, this one is more of a developmental watch than a must-see. The gNERD of 8.61 sits below the historical median of 10.10, and today's game slate confirms it: this is a below-average watchability day for this matchup.

Chandler is 1-5 with 36 strikeouts against 31 walks over 42 innings in his first full season, and the xFIP- of 139 tells the same story the walk totals do — he's been genuinely hittable, not just unlucky. His four-seam fastball averages 98.9 mph and touches 100 consistently, which is reflected in his pNERD velocity component, but the command issues drag his pNERD all the way down to 2.01. Over his last five starts he's posted a 6.95 ERA with 18 walks in 22 innings — a walk rate that would easily lead the majors among qualified starters.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman (pNERD: 5.88) is the steadier hand, with an xFIP- of 83 and solid strike-throwing metrics. He won't dazzle you, but he's the kind of pitcher who quietly makes games competitive.

The Pirates do bring some genuine team-side appeal — solid baserunning and a low payroll that punches above its weight — while Toronto's tNERD of 2.96 is a drag, driven by poor offense and a weak barrel rate. The Blue Jays' bullpen is a genuine strength, though, which could matter if Chandler implodes early.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Toronto Blue Jays

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Two middling starters, two shaky bullpens, and a Cardinals team young enough to be exciting even when they're frustrating — this game has modest watchability, sitting well below the midpoint of today's slate and historically.

The headline story here is Kyle Leahy, a former reliever now in his first full season as a starter. Leahy pitched well out of the bullpen in 2025, recording 18 holds in 62 outings with a 3.07 FIP-adjacent line across 88 innings. Adjusting to the third time through the order is the logical next challenge for Leahy as he attempts to establish himself as a starter. His pNERD of 2.57 reflects the underlying numbers: an xFIP- of 108 and below-average strikeout and strike rates don't inspire confidence in a deep outing. Chris Paddack mirrors him almost exactly with a 3.37 pNERD and the same xFIP-, though Paddack carries a notable luck component — suggesting he's been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers and is due for better results.

On the team side, the Cardinals' best asset is their youth — their roster age contributes meaningfully to their tNERD — though both bullpens are liabilities. The Reds bring a high barrel rate but negative batting runs, a combination that promises loud outs as much as actual damage. A watchable-enough game for NL Central devotees, but not a priority today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Paddack, Cincinnati Reds

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Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

The Cubs are in a tailspin, the Astros are a mess, and the two pitchers on the mound don't exactly inspire confidence — but at least Wrigley is a good place to watch baseball. This game's gNERD of 8.05 lands below both the historical median and today's range, and the underlying numbers mostly explain why.

The story on the mound is a tale of surface stats versus reality. Arrighetti is 5-1 on the season and most recently allowed one hit over 7⅓ shutout innings against Texas — genuinely good stuff. But his xFIP- of 114 tells a more sobering story: he's been outperforming his underlying numbers, and regression is the more likely direction from here. Taillon's situation is similar but worse: he was roughed up for eight runs in five innings in his last start against the White Sox, and his xFIP- of 116 suggests the underlying skill isn't much better. Neither pitcher grades out well on swinging strikes or strike rate, and both pNERDs hover just above 2 — well below the historical average of ~4.9.

The Cubs carry the watchability load here with a strong tNERD of 8.23, driven by solid batting runs and a fielding unit that ranks among the better ones in the data. Chicago just got swept at home by the rival Brewers and have lost eight of ten, while the Astros have dropped three of four with the highest combined staff ERA in baseball. The Astros' bullpen is a genuine liability, ranking nearly two standard deviations below average — so if either starter struggles early, things could get ugly fast. Cold weather at Wrigley and wind blowing in from center field should favor the pitchers, which may be the only thing keeping this from turning into a high-scoring slog.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Houston Astros

Chicago Cubs

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Michael Soroka is the main reason to tune in here, but the Rockies' presence as the opponent is the main reason not to. This is a low-watchability game by most measures — a gNERD of 6.50 puts it well below the historical median of 10.10 and near the bottom of today's slate.

Soroka is the one genuine draw. His xFIP- of 78 is well below league average, translating to a strong pNERD of 7.31 — above the 75th percentile historically. He's allowed just three earned runs over his last 18.1 innings, and his luck component suggests he's been slightly underperforming his underlying numbers, meaning the underlying skill may be even better than the results show.

On the other side, Sugano's pNERD of -0.48 reflects real concerns: an xFIP- of 121, a below-average swinging-strike rate, and a slow pace. He enters with a 4.02 ERA across 47.0 innings, and the Diamondbacks have already seen him recently — his last outing came against Arizona, so they'll be familiar with his repertoire.

Colorado sits at 19-32, fifth in the NL West, while Arizona is 26-23. The Rockies' tNERD of 1.69 is among the lowest in the historical dataset — their batting runs and barrel rate are both significantly below average. Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, and Jordan Lawlar are among the names out for Arizona, so the D-backs aren't at full strength either. Soroka is worth watching; everything around him, less so.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:15p

Summary

Two sub-.500 teams, two struggling starters, and a gNERD of 3.62 — this is the lowest-scoring game on today's slate and sits near the historical basement too. There's not much here to pull you away from whatever else you're doing.

The Tigers are 20-31 and mired in a six-game losing streak, sitting at the bottom of the AL Central. The Orioles are trying to rebound after getting swept in Tampa Bay, where they were outscored 25-10 over three games. Both teams enter with sub-.500 records.

On the mound, neither starter inspires confidence. Flaherty is 0-5 on the season, and his xFIP- of 127 confirms the struggles are real, not just unlucky — his low swinging-strike and strike rates drag his pNERD to a meager 0.59. Flaherty has posted a rough first 43.2 innings, walking too many batters and generating few ground balls. Bassitt's numbers tell a similar story — a 123 xFIP- with below-average whiff and strike rates yields a pNERD of 0.35. Detroit's tNERD is weighed down by poor baserunning and fielding, while both teams carry significant luck scores suggesting their underlying performance is actually worse than what you've been seeing. Skip this one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Baltimore Orioles

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

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