MLB: What to watch on May 23, 2026

• 23 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

This is the top watchability game of the day, and it earns that spot on the strength of its pitching matchup. Ryan Weathers brings a pNERD of 9.98 — near the 95th percentile historically — driven by a 67 xFIP-, which is genuinely elite, while Drew Rasmussen counters with a solid 7.16 pNERD of his own, backed by a 77 xFIP- and 95.8 mph velocity.

Rasmussen has yielded three earned runs or fewer in eight of nine starts this season, carrying a 3.19 FIP-adjacent line and a 45:9 K:BB across 48 innings into this road matchup against the Yankees. He's also in the final year of his deal with Tampa Bay, adding a trade-deadline subplot worth watching.

Weathers' luck component of +21 is the real eyebrow-raiser: a positive luck value this large means he's been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers, suggesting his results should improve going forward — his xFIP- of 67 says he's been much better than his surface stats indicate.

The Yankees bring a tNERD of 9.68 — near the top of today's range — fueled by strong batting runs, a barrel rate more than two standard deviations above average, and solid fielding. The Rays' tNERD of 2.49 is a drag, but when both starters are this good, the pitching carries the day.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:15p

Summary

The Dodgers bring their league-best offense and a Roki Sasaki who may finally be turning a corner into Milwaukee, making this one of the better watchability bets on today's slate — and among the top tier historically. The main question is whether Sasaki's promising recent outing was a signal or just noise.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 10.67 is the highest of any team in today's games, and it's earned: the Dodgers are pushing for the historically elusive three-peat in 2026, backed by a lineup posting a batting runs figure more than two standard deviations above average, plus strong fielding and a solid bullpen. Sasaki (pNERD: 6.66) is the narrative engine here. His rookie season didn't go as hoped — across eight starts, he posted 28 strikeouts and 22 walks in 36⅓ innings with a grisly FIP of 5.80. His most recent start was his best MLB outing to date: seven innings, one run, four hits, no walks, and a career-high eight strikeouts. His 97 mph fastball and a positive luck component suggest his underlying numbers should improve as the season progresses. On the other side, Robert Gasser draws a pNERD of 0.00 — no statistical data available — so he's an unknown quantity. The Brewers' young roster (tNERD: 6.86) and solid bullpen keep Milwaukee competitive, but this game is really about whether Sasaki's best self shows up against a scrappy club.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Milwaukee Brewers

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

The Padres' bullpen is one of the best in baseball, and with a gNERD of 12.46 — solidly above the historical median — this series game between two competitive teams has real watchability. The bigger draw is the storyline around Lucas Giolito, a reclamation project making just his second start after a long road back.

Giolito's protracted free agency finally ended when the Padres signed him to a one-year deal, and his first start was his first since Sept. 23 of last season, when he was with the Red Sox. With a pNERD of 0.00, we have no meaningful statistical profile on him yet — just five innings of work — so consider him a wildcard in the most literal sense. Opposing him is J.T. Ginn, who has been quietly solid: he carries a 2-2 record across 51.1 innings with 44 strikeouts and six home runs allowed. His xFIP- of 91 suggests he's pitching a bit better than league average. He took a no-hitter into his last outing against the Angels before giving up a walk-off two-run homer — so the command is there, even if the results aren't always tidy. On the team side, San Diego's bullpen is a genuine asset (tNERD: 8.77), ranking among the best in baseball. The Athletics carry a notable luck component — they're underperforming their underlying numbers and due for positive regression. The Padres enter having dropped two straight to the Dodgers, falling out of first place in the NL West, giving this game some added stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Athletics

San Diego Padres

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Lucas Giolito, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

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Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies, 1:05p

Summary

Zack Wheeler is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, and that alone makes this worth your time. The night before, the Phillies lost a 1-0 heartbreaker on a pinch-hit ninth-inning homer, so there's genuine tension in this series — even if Philadelphia's 25-26 record and mediocre offense keep their tNERD (4.98) near the historical median.

Wheeler's pNERD of 7.25 — well above the historical 75th percentile — reflects real dominance: a 25% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, 50% ground-ball rate, and just 0.3 home runs per nine innings combine for an xFIP- of 75, meaning he's pitching roughly 25% better than league average on a skill-adjusted basis. Through his first five starts, Wheeler has struck out 30 batters over 31.2 innings while posting a 0.88 WHIP.

The counterweight is Slade Cecconi, whose pNERD of 3.48 tells a humbler story — a below-average xFIP- and weak swing-and-miss numbers, though a luck component of 19 suggests he's been pitching better than his results show. Cleveland enters on a seven-game winning streak, holding a four-game lead in the AL Central, and their tNERD of 7.59 reflects a young, cheap roster with a solid bullpen. This game sits comfortably above the historical median gNERD — worth watching primarily for Wheeler, with Cleveland's scrappy lineup adding just enough intrigue.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Philadelphia Phillies

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals, 1:10p

Summary

George Kirby is quietly having one of the better seasons of his career, and his pNERD of 7.22 is the main reason to tune in here. The Royals' Stephen Kolek is a statistical unknown (pNERD of 0.00), which cuts both ways — it keeps the ceiling modest, but if Kirby is on, this could be a one-sided pitching showcase.

Kirby's groundball rate sits at 57.6%, fourth-highest in baseball, part of a deliberate evolution in his approach. He'd been gradually backing off his four-seamer and leaning on his sweeper, which generated more whiffs but cost him some of his elite command. This year, he's made a significant mental adjustment, working to let go of fluky results and refocus on execution pitch-to-pitch. The numbers back it up: he's been strong and steady with a 2.94 FIP-adjacent line, 1.10 WHIP, and a 39:12 K:BB through 52 innings. His pNERD is driven by above-average velocity at 96.9 mph, elite strike rate, and a solid xFIP-.

On the team side, Seattle's tNERD (5.70) gets a modest boost from a good bullpen and a slight positive luck component — meaning the Mariners may be due for some offensive improvement. Kansas City's tNERD (4.69) is dragged down by a struggling offense (-18.3 batting runs) and a genuinely bad bullpen. The gNERD of 11.31 lands just above the historical median of 10.10, so this is a slightly above-average watch — worth it primarily for Kirby, and less so for what happens after he leaves the mound.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Kansas City Royals

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

Max Meyer is quietly having a breakout season for a Marlins team that punches above its payroll weight, and he's the main reason to tune in here. The Mets, meanwhile, are a $375M roster that's been a mess on the road and just got shut down by Eury Pérez the night before.

Meyer has posted 53.2 IP, 60 strikeouts, 19 walks, and a 3.07 FIP this season, and his xFIP- of 86 — about 14% better than league average — is the real engine behind his pNERD of 6.50, which sits above the 75th percentile historically. The third overall pick in the 2022 draft, Meyer missed all of 2023 with injuries and posted essentially replacement-level results in 2024 and 2025, but has put up 1.7 bWAR already in 10 starts this year. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.

Peralta's pNERD of 3.96 is middling — his xFIP- is near league average and his strike rate is a drag. In his last start against the Yankees, he walked a season-high six while striking out four over five-plus innings.

The Marlins' tNERD of 7.30 is boosted by a young roster and elite baserunning, while the Mets are just 11-16 on the road with a lineup that's been anemic in day games. The gNERD of 11.22 is right around the historical median — a perfectly watchable game carried mostly by the Meyer storyline.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, 1:10p

Summary

The real draw here isn't the pitching — it's the bats, and both teams have plenty of them. Both the Braves and Nationals rank among the two best teams in baseball in runs scored this season, which goes a long way toward explaining why the team NERD scores are doing most of the heavy lifting in this game's 11.20 gNERD — solidly above the historical median of 10.10.

Atlanta enters at 35-16 while Washington comes in at 25-26, a gap that understates Washington's offensive punch. The Nationals bring strong baserunning (tNERD component: +1.82) and a young roster (average age 27.1), though their bullpen has been a liability this season. Atlanta's offense is the real engine here — their barrel rate and batting runs components both grade out well, and Washington scored 24 combined runs in two wins over the Mets earlier this week, while Atlanta has scored at least eight runs in four of their last five games.

The pitching matchup is less compelling. Irvin's xFIP- of 106 and his Luck component of +1.00 suggest he's been pitching worse than his underlying numbers — expect some regression in his favor, though he's still been hittable. Holmes appears to be back on a normal schedule after an extended absence earlier this month and threw six scoreless innings against the Red Sox in his last outing, but his xFIP- of 111 doesn't inspire confidence either. Run-scoring is likely; whether the starters stick around long enough to provide it is the question.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Washington Nationals

Atlanta Braves

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

I have good information on Skenes. I didn't get Corbin results, but I know enough about him from context. Let me now write the summary.

Paul Skenes is the reason to watch this game — he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now, and the numbers back it up. His pNERD of 10.39 leads today's slate and sits near the top of historical scores, reflecting an xFIP- of 71 (nearly 30% better than league average), 97+ mph heat, and a 56:7 K:BB ratio across 55 innings this season.

Coming off a rough outing against the Phillies — his first real stumble since Opening Day — Skenes enters Toronto having given up more than three runs for just the second time all year. That makes this start worth watching: can the reigning NL Cy Young winner bounce back? He's gone 35 consecutive innings without a walk at one stretch this season, so the command has been elite.

The catch is Patrick Corbin on the other side, whose pNERD of 1.59 reflects a 113 xFIP- and dwindling stuff at 91.3 mph — a stark contrast to Skenes. Toronto's tNERD (3.44) drags things down too, with poor batting and baserunning numbers. The Pirates bring better team metrics, including strong baserunning. This game is essentially a one-man show — and that one man is worth the price of admission.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Toronto Blue Jays

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Patrick Corbin, Toronto Blue Jays

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Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

The Cubs are a genuinely good team having a rough week, and Wrigley Field is a fine place to watch a game — but the pitching matchup here is more workmanlike than electric. With a gNERD of 10.69, this lands right around the historical median and near the middle of today's slate.

Chicago enters having lost six straight, which adds some pressure to the home side. The Cubs' tNERD of 8.45 is the real driver of this game's watchability — their strong batting runs and a fielding unit that ranks among the best in the league make them genuinely fun to watch on both sides of the ball. Houston's bullpen has been a problem all year, with relievers posting a 5.72 ERA and closer Bryan Abreu struggling badly, which the Astros' deeply negative bullpen component (-2.00) reflects clearly.

On the mound, Teng has struck out 30 batters over 31 innings with a solid 3.79 FIP, and his xFIP- of 92 suggests he's been legitimately effective. Rea is winless in his last three outings and hasn't made it through six innings in his past five appearances — his luck component of +1.00 suggests he's been underperforming his underlying numbers, so some improvement is plausible. The main subplot: swirling rumors about the job security of Astros manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown give Houston's side a bit of extra edge.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Houston Astros

Chicago Cubs

Kai-Wei Teng, Houston Astros

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Taj Bradley returning from the IL after right pec inflammation is the real story here — and if he can go deep into this game, it elevates what would otherwise be a middling matchup. The Red Sox's elite defense is a genuine draw, but the offense is a liability, and Jovani Morán on the mound keeps the ceiling modest.

Bradley's return is the headliner. He went on the 15-day IL with right pectoralis muscle inflammation, and was eligible to come off as early as Thursday, suggesting he may have needed only one rehab start before rejoining the rotation. Before the injury, he had been one of the breakout starters in the league, posting 52 strikeouts and 17 walks in 47 innings. His pNERD of 6.04 — above the historical 75th percentile — reflects his 96.5 mph velocity and his youth (just 25), both real assets. The question mark is whether he's truly back to full strength.

On the other side, Morán's pNERD of 2.76 is uninspiring: his xFIP- of 104 runs slightly below average, and his strike rate is a notable drag. Boston's tNERD of 7.35 is driven almost entirely by elite fielding (2.05 standard deviations above average) and solid baserunning — not the offense, which is well below average in both batting runs and barrel rate. The Twins have also been leaving runners stranded at an ugly clip. The gNERD of 10.11 lands right at the historical median — perfectly watchable, but nothing you'd rearrange your schedule for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Minnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Jovani Morán, Boston Red Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:15p

Summary

A mid-tier NL Central divisional game gets a modest gNERD of 9.51 — right around the historical median — and the pitching matchup is the main reason to temper expectations. The Cardinals are 2.5 games up on Cincinnati, so there's genuine division-race stakes, but the mound situation on the Reds' side is shaky at best.

Leahy made just one start in his 62 appearances in 2025, and St. Louis moved him to the rotation this year — an experiment that's been passable but not pretty. His xFIP- of 109 and low swinging-strike and strike rates drag his pNERD down to 2.41, and he's faced Cincinnati eight times previously, all as a reliever, posting a 6.30 ERA in those outings.

On the other side, the Reds are turning to prospect Chase Petty, whose only major league appearance this year came May 4 against the Cubs. Since then, he's struggled at Triple-A, surrendering six hits and three runs in 3⅔ innings one start, then eight hits and seven earned runs in three innings the next. The pNERD of 0.00 reflects the lack of meaningful big-league data — which is itself a kind of data.

The Cardinals' tNERD gets a lift from their youth (the youngest roster in this dataset) and a below-market payroll. The Reds bring a strong barrel rate but both bullpens are liabilities. Elly De La Cruz remains the centerpiece of the Cincinnati offense, and Eugenio Suarez is returning from the IL, adding a bit of lineup intrigue. Watchable if you're a division-race follower; otherwise, the second game of a doubleheader with a shaky prospect starter is a reasonable skip.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Chase Petty, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 7:05p

Summary

Eovaldi's underlying numbers make this game more watchable than the Angels' dismal roster metrics would suggest — but this is still a below-average matchup dragged down by one of the worst teams in baseball.

The gNERD of 9.29 sits just below the historical median (~10.1), and the Angels' tNERD of 0.95 is essentially the floor across all games tracked — their bullpen, defense, and baserunning are all well below average. Eovaldi is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, going eight innings against the Yankees with one run allowed and eight strikeouts. His pNERD of 7.96 — above the 75th percentile historically — reflects a strong xFIP- of 77 and elite swing-and-miss rates, even as he's surrendered nine home runs through six starts, nearly matching his full-2025 total. The Rangers' tNERD gets a notable boost from a luck component suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying numbers, so more offense may be coming. On the other side, Eovaldi recently suffered an injury scare, so confirm he's actually taking the ball. Ureña, 22 years old, brings a lively 97.8 mph fastball, though his xFIP- of 109 and poor strike rate suggest the velocity is more promise than polish so far.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:10a

Summary

Two middling pitchers, two leaky bullpens, and a doubleheader born from a rainout — this one has the feel of a game that exists more out of obligation than excitement. With a gNERD of 9.11, it sits just below the historical median, which is about right for what's on offer.

The pitching matchup is the soft underbelly here. Both Pallante and Paddack carry pNERD scores hovering around 3.3 — well below the historical average of 4.9 — and the underlying numbers back that up. Paddack comes in at 0-5 with a 7.07 FIP-adjacent surface line, though his xFIP- of 108 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky — his large positive luck component in the NERD model reflects that he's meaningfully underperforming his underlying numbers, so some regression toward better performance is plausible. Cincinnati signed Paddack after he was released by the Miami Marlins earlier this month, and he made a serviceable Reds debut, allowing two runs over five innings against Cleveland. Pallante is the steadier hand — he's 4-4 with 40 strikeouts in 49⅔ innings — but his slow pace and below-average swinging-strike rate keep his pNERD modest.

On the team side, the Cardinals get a boost from their youth (one of the youngest rosters in the game) and a below-market payroll. The Reds bring a genuinely high barrel rate — a top-tier mark that hints at pop in the lineup — but both bullpens are liabilities, which could make late innings messy. Eugenio Suárez returns from the IL for Cincinnati, adding a storyline if not a stat-line boost. Pallante has historically handled the Reds well, going 6-4 with a 2.49 FIP across nine career starts against them. A fine game for the division-conscious fan, but not one you'd rearrange your Saturday around.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Paddack, Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

The real story here is the role reversal: the White Sox (26-24) are the competent team visiting a struggling Giants squad (20-31) that has lost three straight and owns a -26 run differential in May alone. With a gNERD of 8.26 — below the historical median of 10.10 and toward the lower end of today's games — this one is probably background noise rather than appointment viewing.

The watchability gap between these teams is stark. The White Sox spent in the offseason and acquired Munetaka Murakami from Japan, whose fast rise in 2026 has dragged the Southsiders from embarrassing afterthought to a "firm 'on second thought' team." Their tNERD of 8.24 is well above the historical 75th percentile, driven by a strong barrel rate and a notably young roster — the kind of team that's fun to watch develop. The Giants, meanwhile, post a tNERD of 1.43 — near the historical floor — with negative contributions across batting runs, barrel rate, and baserunning. The Giants have lost three straight and are just 7-12 in May. Their luck component is large enough to note: a positive value of 10.0 suggests they've been underperforming their underlying numbers and could improve.

On the mound, Bryan Hudson (pNERD: 4.64, xFIP- of 93) is the more watchable arm — a slightly above-average pitcher by the underlying numbers. Houser is making his 10th start of the season; his last outing was six innings with one earned run, though he carries a 5.25 ERA and just 4.9 strikeouts per nine. His xFIP- of 120 confirms the struggles are real, not just bad luck.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Chicago White Sox

San Francisco Giants

Bryan Hudson, Chicago White Sox

Adrian Houser, San Francisco Giants

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:10p

Summary

This one sits near the bottom of today's slate and well below the historical average — two pitchers posting above-average xFIP- scores, a 20-32 road team, and a matchup that looks more like a chore than a treat. The Rockies' offense ranks among the worst in baseball by batting runs (-38.5), and Lorenzen carries a 2-6 record with a 1.91 WHIP across 48.2 innings, with an xFIP- of 109 confirming the results aren't just bad luck — he's genuinely below average. His luck component is a notable exception: a large positive value suggests his results have been even worse than his underlying numbers, so some regression toward merely mediocre is possible. Gallen isn't inspiring either, with an xFIP- of 107 and swing-and-miss rates well below average for both starters. Arizona is also dealing with a crowded injury report, including Corbin Burnes on the 60-day IL. Arizona's fielding (+1.10 component) is a modest bright spot, and the Rockies did rally past Arizona 3-2 the night before on a ninth-inning walk-off, so there's at least a live series. But with a gNERD of 6.23 — in the bottom quarter historically — there are almost certainly better games on the board tonight.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael Lorenzen, Colorado Rockies

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 1:05p

Summary

Two teams combining for 11 players on the injured list, a seven-game losing streak for Detroit, and a starter for Baltimore with an xFIP- of 128 — there are better ways to spend your afternoon. This one sits at a gNERD of 5.43, the lowest-scoring game of the day and near the bottom 5th percentile historically.

Detroit enters having lost seven in a row, and the Tigers have dropped 14 of their last 16, a stretch approaching the franchise's worst in the dismal 2019 season. The injury list is brutal, with Tarik Skubal (elbow), Justin Verlander (hip), Jackson Jobe (elbow), and Reese Olson (shoulder) all sidelined — essentially the entire top of the rotation. Framber Valdez steps in with a pNERD of 3.65, below the historical average, and his underlying numbers back that up: an xFIP- of 103 and a low swinging-strike rate don't inspire confidence. The Tigers' team metrics are similarly grim — poor baserunning (-1.87 component) and poor defense (-1.47) drag the tNERD to 2.45. A large positive luck score (component: 1.36) suggests Detroit has been underperforming even their mediocre underlying numbers, so improvement is plausible, but this roster has real problems.

Baltimore's Brandon Young has a pNERD of just 0.66, driven by an xFIP- of 128 — well above average in the wrong direction. The Orioles are also dealing with a wave of injuries, including Zach Eflin, Félix Bautista, and Jordan Westburg, the latter lost for the season. Gunnar Henderson remains the offense's anchor, but this is a thin roster leaning on a shaky starter. Skip this one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Baltimore Orioles

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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