MLB: What to watch on May 25, 2026

• 25 May 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Jacob Misiorowski is the best reason to watch baseball right now, and this game is the best reason to watch today. The 24-year-old Brewers ace is putting together one of the more jaw-dropping sophomore campaigns in recent memory, and the gNERD of 15.71 is the highest-scoring game of the day and sits near the top of the historical distribution.

Misiorowski has gone four straight starts without allowing a run across 24.1 innings, leading MLB with 88 strikeouts and a 39.6% strikeout rate. His pNERD of 13.47 — the highest among today's starters and near the all-time ceiling in the historical data — is driven by an xFIP- of 55 and an average fastball velocity of 99.7 mph. He opened 2026 as Milwaukee's Opening Day starter, becoming the youngest Brewers pitcher to start on Opening Day since Ben Sheets in 2002.

Matthew Liberatore, meanwhile, carries a pNERD of 4.66 — solidly below average — with an xFIP- of 105 suggesting he's a below-average pitcher facing a very above-average one. His luck component (+14) does indicate he's been somewhat unlucky and may pitch better than recent results suggest.

Both teams skew young — Misiorowski was born in 2002 — and the Cardinals' youth (average age 26.9) adds to their tNERD. The Brewers' bullpen is a genuine strength. This one is worth watching primarily for what Misiorowski might do to a Cardinals lineup in real time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres, 3:40p

Summary

Jesús Luzardo is the main event here, and his underlying numbers make a compelling case that his surface-level struggles this season are masking a genuinely elite arm. The Padres bring a strong bullpen and excellent defense to a game that sits near the top of today's slate.

Luzardo's pNERD of 11.24 is the real engine driving this game's gNERD of 14.84 — a score that lands above the 95th percentile historically and near the top of today's games. His xFIP- of 66 is the key: that's a staggering 34% better than league average, suggesting his up-and-down season — when he's been good, he's been one of the best lefties in MLB — is masking genuinely elite stuff. The Luck component in his pNERD confirms it: he's been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers, which means improvement is the expectation. Add in 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a 96.7 mph fastball, and this is a pitcher worth watching closely.

The Padres are battling for first place in the NL West with the Dodgers, and their tNERD of 9.11 reflects a genuinely strong club — boosted especially by an excellent bullpen and top-tier broadcasters. San Diego has gone 20-5 in games when they did not allow a home run, which sets up an interesting tension against a Phillies team that has hit 62 home runs on the season. Luzardo is 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA in five career starts against San Diego, while Vásquez is 0-1 with a 12.46 ERA in his only career appearance against Philadelphia. Vásquez (pNERD: 4.51) is roughly average by the underlying numbers despite a tidy surface record, so this one lives or dies on Luzardo.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Philadelphia Phillies

San Diego Padres

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

Ben Brown is quietly one of the more watchable young starters in baseball right now, and the Cubs' eight-game losing streak adds some genuine drama to what might otherwise be a routine NL Central matchup. This game's gNERD of 13.69 lands solidly in the top quartile of today's slate and historically.

Brown is the main draw here. He's making his fourth consecutive start after transitioning from the bullpen, and his underlying numbers back up the surface results: an xFIP- of 73 is well above average, and he's posted a 0.98 WHIP across 38.2 innings, allowing just one home run while striking out 40. His 96.6 mph velocity adds to a pNERD of 8.57 that ranks among the better starters on today's slate. The Cubs' tNERD of 8.36 is driven by strong batting and — notably — elite fielding runs (20.6, more than two standard deviations above average), which makes their defense worth watching even when their bats go quiet.

The Cubs are bottoming out, mired in an eight-game losing streak after getting swept in six straight at home to Milwaukee and Houston. On the other side, Mlodzinski is pitching with rotation uncertainty looming, as Jared Jones — who hasn't pitched in the majors since the end of the 2024 season after elbow surgery — is nearing a return. That's a real stakes situation for Mlodzinski, whose xFIP- of 95 is league-average. The Pirates' baserunning (1.58 component) adds some extra-bases intrigue. A good game to have on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates

Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs

Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals, 12:40p

Summary

The Yankees bring one of the game's most dangerous offenses into Kauffman Stadium against a 34-year-old Wacha who has been genuinely excellent this season — and Will Warren's underlying numbers suggest he's even better than his surface stats indicate. This gNERD of 13.07 sits comfortably above the historical median of 10.1, and among today's slate it ranks near the top.

Warren's pNERD of 7.92 is the headliner on the pitching side. His xFIP- of 70 — meaning he's suppressing runs about 30% better than league average — drives that score, and he already torched Kansas City earlier this season, racking up 11 strikeouts over seven innings of two-run ball. His luck component is notably positive, meaning he's been somewhat unlucky relative to his underlying numbers and could be due for even better results.

Wacha is the Royals' best starter by a comfortable margin, and he carries a career-best 1.03 WHIP and a 55:20 K:BB across 63.1 innings. His pNERD of 4.23 is respectable but near average, consistent with a pitcher performing close to league-average by xFIP-.

The Yankees' tNERD of 9.39 is the real engine here — their barrel rate and batting runs both rank well above average, and Aaron Judge sits at 17 home runs already. The Royals' bullpen is a genuine liability: KC ranks 23rd and 26th in bullpen ERA and WHIP, respectively — so if Wacha exits early, things could get interesting fast. Bobby Witt Jr. hitting .295 with 16 stolen bases gives Kansas City its own must-watch player on the other side.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Kansas City Royals

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

The Dodgers are one of baseball's most watchable teams right now, and Emmet Sheehan gives this game a real pitching anchor — though the other side of the mound is a different story. Colorado's rotation is in rough shape, and Gordon draws his first start of the 2026 campaign against the back-to-back World Series champions on the road.

The Dodgers' tNERD of 10.66 is the highest of any team in today's slate and sits near the top of the historical range too — driven by elite batting runs, a strong barrel rate, excellent fielding, and a solid bullpen. The Rockies, at 1.76, are the mirror image: Colorado has an open rotation spot due to Dollander's injury, and it's not a given that Gordon will fill that role given his ugly numbers on the campaign. He owns a 6.59 ERA over 27.1 innings in seven appearances this season, and we have no meaningful pNERD data for him.

Sheehan is the reason to tune in. His pNERD of 7.95 clears the historical 75th percentile, backed by an xFIP- of 83 and a strong swinging-strike rate. He also carries a luck component suggesting he's been pitching better than his results show — expect improvement. At 26, he's one of the more interesting young arms in the NL West. The gNERD of 12.69 lands above the historical median, and the Dodgers alone are worth the price of admission.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

Nolan McLean is the main reason to tune in here — a 24-year-old rookie who's been one of the most compelling young arms in baseball, facing a Reds lineup that could test his limits. The other half of this pitching matchup is a question mark, with Nick Lodolo carrying a pNERD of 0.00 due to no available statistical data, which tempers the game's ceiling somewhat.

McLean has picked up where he left off from his 2025 debut, when he made eight starts and posted a 2.06 ERA. In 2026, he's gone 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 10 starts, though he's coming off the worst outing of his young season. The underlying numbers still look strong: his xFIP- of 74 ranks well above average, and his pNERD of 9.80 — near the 95th percentile of pitchers historically — reflects real skill. His luck component is notably positive, suggesting he's been somewhat unlucky and may be pitching even better than results show. McLean also made the Team USA WBC roster, and manager Mark DeRosa turned to him for the final — no small vote of confidence.

On the team side, neither club is lighting the world on fire offensively — the Reds rank below average in batting runs, and the Mets are worse still. Cincinnati's bullpen has been a liability, while the Mets' relievers have been a relative strength. The gNERD of 11.94 sits just above the historical median, making this a solid but unspectacular watch — worth it mainly for McLean.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Cincinnati Reds

New York Mets

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

No detailed stats available

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

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Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Trey Yesavage is the main reason to watch this game — a 22-year-old World Series hero who returned from a shoulder injury to post a 1.08 FIP-defying ERA through five starts, including six shutout innings against the Yankees just days ago. The gNERD of 11.58 sits right at the midpoint of today's slate, but the pitching matchup skews it upward.

Through five starts, Yesavage has a 1.07 ERA across 25.1 innings, with 29 strikeouts against eight walks. His pNERD of 7.79 ranks well above the historical average, driven by an xFIP- of 89 and a strong swinging-strike rate. He has only eight career regular-season starts under his belt, which makes the performance all the more striking. The Blue Jays' rotation has been decimated by injuries to Berríos, Bieber, Ponce, and Francis, making Yesavage's emergence genuinely load-bearing.

Janson Junk's pNERD of 4.51 is solidly average — his xFIP- of 100 and below-average swinging-strike rate don't inspire much excitement, though a large positive luck value suggests he's been pitching better than his results indicate.

On the team side, Miami's tNERD of 7.23 is a pleasant surprise, fueled by strong baserunning and the low-payroll, young-roster bonuses that NERD rewards. Toronto's 3.63 is a drag, reflecting an offense that has struggled at the plate and on the bases. The real draw here is Yesavage — the pitcher who started Game 1 of the 2025 World Series and then struck out twelve in Game 5 is still just getting started.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Miami Marlins

Toronto Blue Jays

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Luis Castillo's 2026 season has become one of baseball's more compelling cautionary tales, and this start against the very team he most recently faced — the A's — adds a layer of uncomfortable symmetry. The gNERD of 8.78 sits below the historical median of around 10, and the pitching matchup is the main reason why.

Castillo struggled with a 1-4 record and a 6.34 ERA through his first nine starts, and the Mariners recently shifted him into a piggyback role with Bryce Miller — though he appears to be back in the rotation for this one. His pNERD of 4.56 is near the historical median, but that's largely inflated by a substantial luck component: his xFIP-based numbers suggest he's been pitching even worse than his already-ugly results indicate. His .364 BABIP and 4.55 FIP illustrate the contrast between his underlying skill and his results, though neither number is flattering. On the other side, Aaron Civale's pNERD of 0.96 reflects a 117 xFIP- and weak swinging-strike rate — he's simply not missing bats. Castillo's most recent outing against the A's saw him allow two runs over five innings with six strikeouts, so at least there's a prior matchup for context. Both teams carry positive luck scores, suggesting some offensive regression may be coming. This one is watchable mostly as a storyline — a proud pitcher trying to right the ship against a familiar opponent.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Athletics

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Aaron Civale, Athletics

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

McClanahan's comeback story is the main reason to tune in here — a two-time All-Star returning from two lost seasons (Tommy John in 2023, then a triceps nerve issue that wiped out all of 2025) has been quietly putting together a solid 2026. The rest of the game, though, is a harder sell.

Through eight starts, McClanahan is 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA across 39.2 innings, with 41 strikeouts against just 15 walks. His pNERD of 6.93 reflects real underlying quality — an xFIP- of 87 and a quick pace on the mound (17.2 seconds between pitches) both contribute positively. Kyle Bradish counters with a middling pNERD of 3.33; his xFIP- of 93 is fine, but a slow pace (21.2 seconds) and below-average strike rate drag him down.

The team context doesn't add much. Tampa Bay's tNERD of 2.36 is weighed down by a barrel rate near the bottom of the league, while Baltimore's 4.27 is propped up mainly by a decent bullpen and a solid TV broadcaster score. Both clubs post poor fielding numbers. The gNERD of 8.44 lands in the bottom quarter of today's slate and well below the historical median — this one is worth watching mostly for McClanahan's story, not the matchup around him.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Tampa Bay Rays (2.10)

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

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Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:10p

Summary

Two teams with watchable underlying profiles are let down by a starter who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. The Nationals' strong baserunning, youth, and low payroll make them a genuinely interesting team on paper, but Zack Littell is a significant drag on this game's appeal.

With a gNERD of 8.41 — below the historical median of ~10 and near the bottom of today's slate — this one is a tough sell. Both team NERD scores are respectable: Washington's 7.92 is boosted by a 27-27 squad with strong baserunning (1.90 component) and a young, cheap roster, while Cleveland's 7.14 reflects a solid bullpen and similarly low payroll and age. The problem is the pitching matchup.

Littell carries a 5.83 ERA and has allowed 15 home runs in just 46.1 innings — a 2.92 HR/9 rate among the worst in the majors — while his strikeout rate has cratered to 4.5 per nine. His xFIP- of 140 is the single worst mark in today's slate, dragging his pNERD to -1.68. Tanner Bibee, meanwhile, is 0-6 on the season with a 3.75 ERA — two facts that can't both be telling the truth. His xFIP of ~100 is league-average, and his last three starts include an 8-inning, 1-run gem in Detroit and a 6-inning, 1-run effort against Minnesota. José Ramírez owns a .364 average and .962 OPS in career plate appearances against Littell, which at least gives Cleveland's half of the game some entertainment potential. There are better games to watch today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Washington Nationals

Cleveland Guardians

Zack Littell, Washington Nationals

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 2:05p

Summary

Landen Roupp is quietly one of the better starters in the NL West right now, and he's the main reason to tune in here. The rest of the game's profile — a struggling Giants offense and a Kelly who's been hit hard this season — keeps the gNERD (8.39) near the bottom of today's slate.

Roupp's pNERD of 7.55 is the story. His xFIP- of 74 is well above average, and he's racked up 61 strikeouts against just 21 walks over 55 innings while allowing only two home runs — a profile that holds up well beyond the surface numbers. He also works at a brisk pace, which keeps games moving. On the other side, Kelly enters with a 5.71 ERA and just 27 strikeouts in 41 innings, having already surrendered eight home runs — and his xFIP- of 123 confirms the struggles are real, not just unlucky. His luck component does suggest some positive regression may be coming, but don't hold your breath.

The team context doesn't help much. San Francisco comes in at 21-31 with a Giants offense that ranks among the worst in today's tNERD scores, posting negative baserunning and barrel rate numbers. Arizona just swept San Francisco three straight, by scores of 6-3, 5-3, and 12-2, so the Diamondbacks arrive with real confidence. Arizona's defense is a genuine asset — their fielding runs rank among the best in the league. Watch for Roupp; skip if you have better options today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 4:05p

Summary

Two struggling AL West neighbors meet in Arlington, but the bigger story may be what's missing: the Astros' injury list reads like a MASH unit, and their starter is a question mark. At a gNERD of 8.13, this game sits near the bottom of today's slate and below the historical median, and the underlying numbers mostly explain why.

Houston is without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez (day-to-day), Josh Hader, Ronel Blanco, and Cristian Javier, among others — a staggering amount of talent on the shelf. Tatsuya Imai takes the ball with a 1-2 record and an 8.31 ERA, walking 14 batters in just 17.1 innings, and his pNERD of 0.00 reflects the absence of any meaningful underlying data to suggest better things are coming. The Astros' bullpen is a notable drag on their tNERD, ranking among the worst in the data. Kumar Rocker counters with a 2-4 record and a 3.60 ERA with 37 strikeouts, though his pNERD of 3.12 is middling — his pace and strike rate components both work against him. Both teams carry substantial positive luck values, meaning both are underperforming their underlying numbers and could improve, but that's a thin hook. The Rangers are favored at -133, and this one has the feel of a mid-May AL West treadmill game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Tatsuya Imai, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of today's watchability rankings, and the pitching matchup is mostly to blame. The White Sox's young roster and power-hitting lineup give it some life, but Anthony Kay's ugly underlying numbers and the absence of meaningful statistical data on Zebby Matthews make this a tough sell.

Matthews is making just his third start of the season, having been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 14, delivering seven scoreless innings in his debut before allowing two runs on five hits in six innings against Houston, with six strikeouts and zero walks. His pNERD is 0.00 simply because we lack enough data — early returns are encouraging, but it's too small a sample to draw conclusions. On the other side, Kay's pNERD of -0.46 reflects genuinely poor underlying numbers: his xFIP- of 127 signals he's been worse than his surface stats suggest, and his SwStr% and strike rate both grade out below average.

The White Sox carry the more interesting tNERD (7.84), driven by a notably young roster and a strong barrel rate. Munetaka Murakami leads Chicago with 17 home runs, and Colson Montgomery has added 13. The Twins, meanwhile, have recalled veteran Orlando Arcia, who has helped spark a four-game winning streak. At a gNERD of 8.12 — the lowest of today's slate and well below the historical median — there are better games to queue up first.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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  MLB: What to watch on May 24, 2026